2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1041 » by tone wone » Tue Feb 4, 2025 12:13 am

ronnymac2 wrote:
MartinToVaught wrote:
ronnymac2 wrote:All this talk about the new DAL owners playing 5D chess to get a casino okayed or move the franchise sounds so goofy to me.

We've just seen the Chargers, Rams, A's, and Coyotes use the "Major League" strategy to justify moving their teams over the past decade. If it can happen in other sports, there's nothing goofy about the idea of it happening in the NBA.

Trading superstars happens, but it always happens a certain way, and in those instances, there is usually a "conspiracy" in the sense that each side uses media contacts to portray things a certain way. None of the familiar hallmarks exist here.

The Mavs have been flooding the media with excuses for what they've done.

A cursory search on Google shows he was a speaker at that Sloan Analytics event, so we know he's a data dork who probably doesn't have a clue how to build a real basketball team.

They are literally coming off a Finals appearance.

I don't even think management gave an ultimatum. They obviously gave their okay, but like...there's zero evidence that the new owners generated this idea.

If they weren't on board with this idiotic move, they could have told him no, or fired him if he refused to back down.


Obviously teams can and have moved...but that doesn't seem like what's going on here.

The Mavs excuses are awful and not thought-out well. They're doing nothing to quell the (deserved) backlash they are receiving from Mavs fans and others.

RE: Finals Appearance...That assistant front office guy who I think is in Detroit now seems to have had a real influence. Left to his own devices, Harrison seems lost.

The owners are obviously culpable in this move, too. But there's no evidence that they are the ones who put Harrison in a corner and forced him to make a desperation move. Maybe I'm wrong and something new comes out though.

You think Nico Harrison (who's won ZERO championships) is both so powerful inside that organization and so secure in his job that, on his own, he decided to do an after-hours side quest to trade Luka without telling ANYONE? How could he be so great at convincing his boses of this deal but so bad at explaining it publicly?

To me it makes way more sense that this came from his bosses. They told him to do it "quickly and quietly." That's why he's struggling to find a narrative to explain why they traded him.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1042 » by Texas Chuck » Tue Feb 4, 2025 1:38 am

Any Luka trade definitely came from above Niko's head. Now we can absolutely blame him for talking essentially to one team. Inexcusable. But much like Cuban decided not to pay Nash, not Nellie. Vegas decided not to play Luka, not Niko. He just gets to swing in the wind over it.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1043 » by parsnips33 » Tue Feb 4, 2025 7:46 pm

Kobe's post career impact on the Lakers is unfathomable. I know Magic obviously contributed a ton to building the prestige of the franchise, but does LeBron ever go the Lakers if not for Kobe? Does Pelinka (and eventually Luka)?

Really hoping the Steph era ends up paying similar sorts of dividends
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1044 » by tsherkin » Tue Feb 4, 2025 8:16 pm

parsnips33 wrote:Kobe's post career impact on the Lakers is unfathomable. I know Magic obviously contributed a ton to building the prestige of the franchise, but does LeBron ever go the Lakers if not for Kobe? Does Pelinka (and eventually Luka)?


LA has decades worth of credibility, and has renewed it periodically. The first dynasty, then a title in the 70s, rocked the 80s, came back in the early 2000s, then again at the end of the decade. Then again in 2020. The allure of Hollywood and all that.

Really hoping the Steph era ends up paying similar sorts of dividends


Hard to envision there being a similar impact.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1045 » by parsnips33 » Tue Feb 4, 2025 8:36 pm

tsherkin wrote:
parsnips33 wrote:Kobe's post career impact on the Lakers is unfathomable. I know Magic obviously contributed a ton to building the prestige of the franchise, but does LeBron ever go the Lakers if not for Kobe? Does Pelinka (and eventually Luka)?


LA has decades worth of credibility, and has renewed it periodically. The first dynasty, then a title in the 70s, rocked the 80s, came back in the early 2000s, then again at the end of the decade. Then again in 2020. The allure of Hollywood and all that.

Really hoping the Steph era ends up paying similar sorts of dividends


Hard to envision there being a similar impact.


Sure but I think the Kobe era has immeasurably more to do with the recent shape of the franchise than any of the (admittedly storied) years that came before, if only by nature of being more recent in time

I also am not sure how meaningful any of the pre-Magic stuff is comparatively, given the cultural import of the NBA/basketball as a whole
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1046 » by tsherkin » Tue Feb 4, 2025 8:59 pm

parsnips33 wrote:Sure but I think the Kobe era has immeasurably more to do with the recent shape of the franchise than any of the (admittedly storied) years that came before, if only by nature of being more recent in time

I also am not sure how meaningful any of the pre-Magic stuff is comparatively, given the cultural import of the NBA/basketball as a whole


Directly? Probably less, but it led to Shaq, which is relevant, given the three-peat and all that.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1047 » by sp6r=underrated » Tue Feb 4, 2025 9:21 pm

https://www.starsthoughts.com/p/im-no-basketball-expert-but-the-luka?utm_source=post-banner&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true

I really like this piece by the Dallas Stars, hockey team, beat reporter. He admits he's not much of a hoops fan but talks about the trade strictly in terms of how it impacts a fanbase.

Those statues aren’t there because of cumulative statistics, or because one GM outsmarted another, or even because of a championship in 2011 or 1999. Those statues are there because people feel things about those two players. Dirk and Mo grew into more than any single player can be in any given game, and even a basketball idiot like me knows about Dirk’s shot, and how beloved he is, and how much it meant for him to get his championship in Dallas, and to retire here.

Here’s the secret: Sports aren’t really about winning games, but winning hearts.

...


This trade, even if you think it makes the Mavericks more likely to win a championship—as their GM purportedly does, though most basketball folks I’ve heard from are far from convinced of that—it also makes this team far less likely to live beyond a given season. A decision like this one shocks everybody because of how obviously damaging it is, how angry it will make people for years, and maybe forever.

There’s a reason most people can’t tell you whom Babe Ruth or Wayne Gretzky were traded for.



Like everyone I this trade is trash strictly on the basketball but on some level the baffling thing about this trade for me is the risk they took with their fanbase

Basketball fans more than other team sport identify with players. The national bulls fanbase collapsed when Jordan left. Lebron fans have followed him team to team. You can make a great case this Cavs team is playing at the level of an ATG team but it isn't generating anywhere near the excitement of Lebron era Cavs because there isn't a Lebron on it.

Luka isn't Lebron but he is the type of player fans identify with. I'm amazed they'd risk the fanbase for a trade where there was no rush and in which the trade didn't generate the possibility of enormous improvement.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1048 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Feb 4, 2025 10:06 pm

parsnips33 wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
parsnips33 wrote:Kobe's post career impact on the Lakers is unfathomable. I know Magic obviously contributed a ton to building the prestige of the franchise, but does LeBron ever go the Lakers if not for Kobe? Does Pelinka (and eventually Luka)?


LA has decades worth of credibility, and has renewed it periodically. The first dynasty, then a title in the 70s, rocked the 80s, came back in the early 2000s, then again at the end of the decade. Then again in 2020. The allure of Hollywood and all that.

Really hoping the Steph era ends up paying similar sorts of dividends


Hard to envision there being a similar impact.


Sure but I think the Kobe era has immeasurably more to do with the recent shape of the franchise than any of the (admittedly storied) years that came before, if only by nature of being more recent in time

I also am not sure how meaningful any of the pre-Magic stuff is comparatively, given the cultural import of the NBA/basketball as a whole


Let's make the distinction between pre-Magic and Magic.

From the 1930s to the 1980s New York was the mecca of basketball.
Then the Lakers drafted Magic.
Then Los Angeles became the mecca.

Obviously the lede story there is the sexiest celebrity town in the world gaining the most charismatic basketball player in the history of the sport, and proceeding to start a dynasty with the sexiest brand of basketball the league had ever seen.

Page 2 is that Magic really kickstarted the off-season games in Los Angeles which had previously been focused in NYC. Once UCLA's Pauley Pavilion became the place where all the pros hung out to play in the summer, then all the agents and execs followed suit, gradually leading to Los Angeles being the place to move if you want to get known in NBA circles.

The back page is that deep down Vegas is effectively a suburb of Los Angeles without any laws protecting the citizenry, and so when the summer league became headquartered in Vegas, that was really just a quick trip for all the basketball people coming from Los Angeles.

So yeah, this then to say, while I think many people at this time think of Kobe as the coolest dude in basketball history, the league has really belonged to the Lakers from Showtime onwards despite how bad the team sucked for the last years of Kobe's career.

Let's also note: Who did LeBron pattern his game after? Magic, not Kobe, and the only reason guys aren't patterning themselves after Magic any more is because they are patterning themselves after LeBron. Modern players are influenced by Kobe's catch phrase of Mamba Mentality, but really, most guys aren't really playing like him any more.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1049 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Feb 4, 2025 10:25 pm

sp6r=underrated wrote:https://www.starsthoughts.com/p/im-no-basketball-expert-but-the-luka?utm_source=post-banner&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true

I really like this piece by the Dallas Stars, hockey team, beat reporter. He admits he's not much of a hoops fan but talks about the trade strictly in terms of how it impacts a fanbase.

Those statues aren’t there because of cumulative statistics, or because one GM outsmarted another, or even because of a championship in 2011 or 1999. Those statues are there because people feel things about those two players. Dirk and Mo grew into more than any single player can be in any given game, and even a basketball idiot like me knows about Dirk’s shot, and how beloved he is, and how much it meant for him to get his championship in Dallas, and to retire here.

Here’s the secret: Sports aren’t really about winning games, but winning hearts.

...


This trade, even if you think it makes the Mavericks more likely to win a championship—as their GM purportedly does, though most basketball folks I’ve heard from are far from convinced of that—it also makes this team far less likely to live beyond a given season. A decision like this one shocks everybody because of how obviously damaging it is, how angry it will make people for years, and maybe forever.

There’s a reason most people can’t tell you whom Babe Ruth or Wayne Gretzky were traded for.



Like everyone I this trade is trash strictly on the basketball but on some level the baffling thing about this trade for me is the risk they took with their fanbase

Basketball fans more than other team sport identify with players. The national bulls fanbase collapsed when Jordan left. Lebron fans have followed him team to team. You can make a great case this Cavs team is playing at the level of an ATG team but it isn't generating anywhere near the excitement of Lebron era Cavs because there isn't a Lebron on it.

Luka isn't Lebron but he is the type of player fans identify with. I'm amazed they'd risk the fanbase for a trade where there was no rush and in which the trade didn't generate the possibility of enormous improvement.


I think this is a facet of the story that we may soon learn that new ownership really didn't understand the scale of, and if they had, they wouldn't have done the trade.

With that said, it's also possible they saw how much the Dallas Maverick fanbase was essentially transforming into a Luka fanbase, and that might have been something they felt a need to stop before it went any further.

One of the positions I've heard mentioned since the trade happened is that the Mavs pushed Luka to be the absolute basketball angel of their franchise and then broke up with him in a way that made them look like they were abusing that angel. There's real truth to the statement, but it's a bit more complicated than that.

From a House of Cards type perspective, the thing to do is leak stuff out there making people sour on their opinion of the guy so that when the team moves on from him, people are less attached to him, and so one can ask "Why didn't they do that?"...

except, they kinda did. Literally the entire basketball world already knew that Luka was a diva with all sorts of toxic habits both for his body and for the environment around hm...but it didn't matter. The reality was that anyone sold on Luka not only didn't care about that toxicity, but quite likely found it endearing. Because at this point we're just so used to stan culture and broader demagoguery that people aren't looking to achieve more nuanced perspectives on things they are fanatical about.

This then to say, there probably wasn't anything more worthwhile the Mavs could do to sway the fanbase to side with them away from Luka, and so if a divorce is what they wanted, might as well rip off the band aid. And of course, doing all of this in secret would go with said rip.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Let me finish this post with a separate thought:

I think we have to try to understand what happened here from a perspective that the people who first acquired Luka are now gone. We would expect that from a career narrative perspective, it would probably never make sense for Donnie Nelson or Mark Cuban to trade Luka away. He was a feather in their respective caps.

But that GM got pushed out, and replaced by someone whose main claim to success prior to this point is acquiring Kyrie Irving. Even if he successfully builds around Luka perfectly in Dallas, people are always going to give much of the credit to those involved in acquiring Luka. Not saying that Harrison did this pre-meditatively for his own narrative - though such GMs do exist - but clearly, we can now see he was never tied to Luka like fans would have assumed he was.

And then that owner sold, and while we fans would probably expect that the new owner would think he was acquiring "Luka's team", but clearly it wasn't. For the Adelson family this acquisition was a small fraction of their overall fortune, and was more about a presence in the state of Texas than it was about fandom.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1050 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Feb 4, 2025 10:29 pm

parsnips33 wrote:Really hoping the Steph era ends up paying similar sorts of dividends


Just on this part, I do think the Steph era has already had a huge impact on the future of the Warrior franchise.

The Warriors were a joke for a very, very long time in Oakland. Like, compared to the A's & Raiders, the Warriors were effectively a minor league fanbase.

Then the Curry-Kerr era hits and they get a dynasty with a great re-brand.
Then they move into San Francisco with a chic modern building that can operate as a major revenue source.

Doesn't mean players are going to go to Golden State just for the Warrior brand, but I think at this point "Golden State" is seen as a big market team, and previously they really weren't.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1051 » by MartinToVaught » Tue Feb 4, 2025 10:34 pm

parsnips33 wrote:does LeBron ever go the Lakers if not for Kobe?

Probably? When he signed there, they were coming off their most pathetic stretch of seasons in franchise history and it still didn't matter.

As for Luka, he's just the latest Laker bailout trade in a decades-long pattern of them that goes back way before Kobe. Let's not forget that Kobe himself forced his way to the Lakers on draft day during the same offseason they signed prime Shaq.

I'll give you that Pelinka is probably never even considered for the Lakers' GM job (or any other team's) if he wasn't Kobe's agent. But Magic was his predecessor and Kurt Rambis is his senior advisor. Jerry West was their GM for a long time. This isn't a Kobe-specific phenomenon either.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1052 » by MartinToVaught » Tue Feb 4, 2025 10:43 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Literally the entire basketball world already knew that Luka was a diva with all sorts of toxic habits both for his body and for the environment around hm...but it didn't matter. The reality was that anyone sold on Luka not only didn't care about that toxicity, but quite likely found it endearing. Because at this point we're just so used to stan culture and broader demagoguery that people aren't looking to achieve more nuanced perspectives on things they are fanatical about.

I think it's less about "stan culture" and more that his flaws weren't stopping him from producing or the Mavs from winning. They were literally in the Finals last season!

I've seen people try to compare his fitness concerns to Embiid, but like... Embiid's missed entire seasons before. He's one of the most injury-prone players in the league. And we've all watched playoff game after playoff game where he's totally gassed in the fourth quarter because his conditioning is horrendous and the Sixers are out in the first or second round again. It's not even close to the same situation.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1053 » by sp6r=underrated » Tue Feb 4, 2025 10:44 pm

Doctor MJ wrote: Literally the entire basketball world already knew that Luka was a diva with all sorts of toxic habits both for his body and for the environment around hm...but it didn't matter.


Good post in general but wanted to call out this section. The issue for ownership with Luka, his toxic habits and how fans view him is the same issue that bedeviled Shaq's employers during his prime. The flaws are there but fans just don't care because they see the obvious ability and just expect you to put up with it.

With guys like that management can only get off the horse without risking the fanbase when:
1. the player's prime is almost over;
2. you somehow land another generational player; or
3. the team seems dead in the water for a period of years

None of that was in play here so the Mavs are getting a huge backlash. I'm not sure how accurate news reports are right now. Given that this trade was done entirerly in secret it seems the Mavs are good at keeping their internal thoughts internal.

But if the reports are right the Mavs are surprised at the backlash.

parsnips33 wrote:Kobe's post career impact on the Lakers is unfathomable. I know Magic obviously contributed a ton to building the prestige of the franchise, but does LeBron ever go the Lakers if not for Kobe? Does Pelinka (and eventually Luka)?

Really hoping the Steph era ends up paying similar sorts of dividends


I live in SF so I am a little bit biased but I think the Curry era will have permanent dividends. SF isn't an LA/NYC but it is a major city and the richest metro in the country. The Curry era has established the Warriors as far as I can tell with players as a major franchise going forward. I don't see any chance they'll recede back into the every other franchise rank.I'd be floored if they didn't maintain a relationship with all the big guns during the run (even with the very annoying Durant).

BTW, did any franchise stick the landing worse than the Bulls? Chicago as a city isn't growing anymore but it is still massive and rich. The Cubs are a huge team in their sport. The Bulls had an opportunity to end up that way in basketball if management had more forsight. Instead management was just egregious penny-pinchers and killed any opportunity of converting some of the Jordan Bulls national fans into Bulls fans.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1054 » by Verticality » Tue Feb 4, 2025 10:59 pm

I don't like this. How can you trade someone who drags you to the finals and can win MVPs at 25? How can you trade someone who helped rescue you from purgatory to the playoffs and all-nba every year? A loyal superstar as everyone else hop somewhere else where the grass is green and you throw him away?
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1055 » by TheGOATRises007 » Wed Feb 5, 2025 12:45 am

KD might be going back to the Warriors.

I think the Suns will trade him since Beal won't waive his NTC.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1056 » by LukaTheGOAT » Wed Feb 5, 2025 3:25 am

eminence wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
eminence wrote:
*An opportunity at that money. Since Dallas didn't actually sign him to that deal and apparently would rather trade him than give it to him.

But yes, there's a scenario where Luka takes a career altering injury in the next couple of seasons and that winds up biting him in the ass. If he makes it to 30 reasonably healthy he'll still get another max and the career earnings difference from a supermax will be in the low single digit %s.



I think it goes without saying that it was an opportunity. An opportunity that was almost a forgone conclusion for any star of Luka's ilk since these supermax contracts have been shelled out.

Billionaires don't even see $116 million as non-material, just look at how owners react to not wanting to spend with championship cotenders. I certainly don't think Luka will necessarily see the loss as "low single digit %" and nothing more.

The additional $116 million not going into the market is a missed opportunity to be invested in the market.


He's eligible for the 35% max in year 11 regardless and is signed through year 8. He'll sign a 30% 2+1 deal after '26 and then he'll sign a 'super max' starting in '29. He'll miss 5% of the cap in '27/'28, ~16 million. Not 116M.

He'll make it back and more playing for the Lakers.


He can sign a shorter contract, and hopefully make up some ground. The upside for popularity in LA is unreal which would boost his pockets but this is juxtaposed with California's income tax:

https://www.wsj.com/sports/basketball/luka-doncic-los-angeles-lakers-trade-f57df096
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1057 » by sp6r=underrated » Wed Feb 5, 2025 4:39 pm

Read on Twitter


I'm fine with superstar autonomy. Lots of these teams just don't want to spend money and only want a superstar level player to sell tickets not build great teams.

And for people who say get a hard cap like the NFL. The vast of pro sports leagues do not have hard caps. The NFL has one because most of their revenue is league wide and the union is pathetic.

The NHL has one because the sport was on the brink of collapse. In the NBA there is talk about a rating crisis but things were so dire in the NHL they had to pay networks to air games. And even then they had to cancel the sport for a year to get a hard cap.

The NBA isn't anything like that. The union isn't strong but it isn't a joke like the NFLPA which allowed the owners to cover up serious medical concerns for decades. While ratings aren't great they aren't anything dire like the NHL. There is no hard cap coming to the NBA.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1058 » by Fadeaway_J » Wed Feb 5, 2025 5:00 pm

I find it hard to believe Kuzma can still be a serious player after years of tomfoolery in Washington, but I guess we'll see...
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1059 » by Dr Positivity » Wed Feb 5, 2025 5:55 pm

Middleton's per minute stats aren't that bad.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1060 » by penbeast0 » Wed Feb 5, 2025 5:55 pm

parsnips33 wrote:Kobe's post career impact on the Lakers is unfathomable. I know Magic obviously contributed a ton to building the prestige of the franchise, but does LeBron ever go the Lakers if not for Kobe? Does Pelinka (and eventually Luka)?

Really hoping the Steph era ends up paying similar sorts of dividends


Even without Kobe, it's the second biggest city in the USA, the home of Hollywood and the entertainment industry that so many stars fixate on, a warm weather city (unlike NY or Chicago), and with the 2nd most championships and the most finals appearances in NBA history. So, yes, without Kobe they are still the primo free agent destination in the NBA year in and year out.
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