'17-'18 POY discussion

[dhsilv2]

Again, LeBron is still well ahead if you remove any position adjustment. He played more minutes per game, and also played more games, both add value.

And again the stat is so terrible from the start there is no reason to discuss it at all.

why is it terrible to account for minutes played and games played? Doesn't being on the court being productive bring more value than not being on the court?

PER - Player efficiency rating. Why would you want to turn that metric into a minute weighted metric? We have 2 better fully box score metrics for that purpose AND box score informed xRAPM adjusted for that. All 3 are much better metrics for this.

[INKtastic]

And again the stat is so terrible from the start there is no reason to discuss it at all.

why is it terrible to account for minutes played and games played? Doesn't being on the court being productive bring more value than not being on the court?

PER - Player efficiency rating. Why would you want to turn that metric into a minute weighted metric? We have 2 better fully box score metrics for that purpose AND box score informed xRAPM adjusted for that. All 3 are much better metrics for this.

Because efficiency*minutes played is a better measure of overall value than efficiency by itself. Games you don't play shouldn't have the same value as games you do play. Minutes you don't play shouldn't have the same value as minutes you do play. VA/EWA is an attempt to quantize that.

[dhsilv2]

why is it terrible to account for minutes played and games played? Doesn't being on the court being productive bring more value than not being on the court?

PER - Player efficiency rating. Why would you want to turn that metric into a minute weighted metric? We have 2 better fully box score metrics for that purpose AND box score informed xRAPM adjusted for that. All 3 are much better metrics for this.

Because efficiency*minutes played is a better measure of overall value than efficiency by itself. Games you don't play shouldn't have the same value as games you do play. Minutes you don't play shouldn't have the same value as minutes you do play. VA/EWA is an attempt to quantize that.

Why use a grill to cook meat instead of a flame thrower?

PER is an ok metric but not one of the better metrics. EWA is a much worse use of PER. Why not use an actually good metric? Say winshare? Or VORP? Or WINS? Oddly enough some of these agree with Lebron being number 1 this year. I'm simply pointing out you're using the worst possible tool to make your case.

[INKtastic]

PER - Player efficiency rating. Why would you want to turn that metric into a minute weighted metric? We have 2 better fully box score metrics for that purpose AND box score informed xRAPM adjusted for that. All 3 are much better metrics for this.

Because efficiency*minutes played is a better measure of overall value than efficiency by itself. Games you don't play shouldn't have the same value as games you do play. Minutes you don't play shouldn't have the same value as minutes you do play. VA/EWA is an attempt to quantize that.

Why use a grill to cook meat instead of a flame thrower?

PER is an ok metric but not one of the better metrics. EWA is a much worse use of PER. Why not use an actually good metric? Say winshare? Or VORP? Or WINS? Oddly enough some of these agree with Lebron being number 1 this year. I'm simply pointing out you're using the worst possible tool to make your case.

I posted this just above the post you quoted

Playoff Advanced stats - 35.8 PER, .346 WS/48, 16.9 BPM

I also said somewhere in the thread LeBron is top 2 in the regular season in many advanced stats. Sometimes 1, sometimes 2. Top 2 regular season, dominating #1 postseason.

The only knock on LeBron this year is about 12 of the 15 games he played with Isaiah Thomas. The first couple went fine, he dominated the last one when he knew IT was going to be traded the next day. Something happened in there that fractured the team. The problem went away with Isaiah. If not for that about 12 game stretch, LeBorn would have lead all advanced stats instead of splitting 1/2 with Harden.

[Clyde Frazier]

Took a look at that first round from lebron. Pretty absurd production.

Thoughts on CLE vs. TOR? I went raps in 7 just feeling like the rest of the cavs roster is a mess and they'll come up short. Raps being the best they've ever been helps offset that, even though they've never been able to take down lebron. Cautiously optimistic there.

[bondom34]

I went Raps in 6. Think they're just better this year. Them vs Philly intrigues me and I'm torn.

[MisterHibachi]

Took a look at that first round from lebron. Pretty absurd production.

Thoughts on CLE vs. TOR? I went raps in 7 just feeling like the rest of the cavs roster is a mess and they'll come up short. Raps being the best they've ever been helps offset that, even though they've never been able to take down lebron. Cautiously optimistic there.

Raptors in 6. No way they win game 7 against LeBron.

[clyde21]

Raptors are not winning anything against LeBron. Don't care how much more talent they have, they can't beat this Cavs team. It's gonna be easy money if Vegas favors them.

[dhsilv2]

I'm with clyde. I just don't trust the raptors despite a clear talent gap to pull it off, and who stops Lebron? Plus watch someone start looking great with Derozen guarding them.

[Joey Wheeler]

So by your definition what is a role player? What is a clear way for us to identify this?

The traditional definition is a player of specialized skills who is generally a bench player. So a guy like Bowen who is primarily a defensive stopper could be seen as an elite all time great role player. A guy like Kerr who was a floor spacer is a role player, and an elite one as well. Today we see this term used for guys who cannot run an offense. However Jrue is a great offensive player who can both run the offense, create for himself, and he can create for others. AD very rarely creates offense for others and mostly scores off ball through movement and screens. By the "newer" and shall we say confusing role player standard we often get AD would fall closer to that than Jrue would despite scoring more points.

So again how do you define role player in a way that Jrue is one?

A role player for me is someone who mostly sticks to specific tasks on the court and depends on the gravity of the star players for their production and impact. This is Jrue, he benefits tremendously from AD's gravity on offense and rim protection on defense to be able to do his stuff, and even then he can be greatly diminished vs good defensive teams. I don't think his level from the Portland series really reflects who he is as a player...

The Pelicans without Cousins and AD would have been in the 'tankers' pack to end the season for sure...

Holiday was an allstar before he ever went to philly and he's had injury after injury, but when healthy he has always been a boarder line allstar. That said AD benefits as much from Holiday and Holiday does from AD. The guy averaged 19 for the season, it isn't like the Portland series is the first time I was a capable scorer or defender.

Fair enough. Let's shift the focus from Holiday on to my initial point: the talent mismatch.

The Warriors have the best net rating in the playoffs and their second best player (for many in this thread, their best player) Curry hasn't even played a single minute. It'll only become more of an uphill battle for the Pels with Curry back. The only way this could be a series is everyone on the Pels playing the absolute best they're capable of while the Warriors struggle, the difference in talent between the two rosters is colossal.

[HeartBreakKid]

I do think LBJ's RS was underrated because of how much of a circus the Cavs were this season.

LBJ offensively is still the same as he always has been, and for my money LBJ has been the best offensive player in the game for a while. I do agree that LBJ has taken a big step back defensively this year, even in the PS.

With that being said, there's no one who I can think of who is clearly better than LBJ so he has to be my POY so far. I think Harden and Curry have reasonable chances of surpassing James if they can light it up this PS.

[iggymcfrack]

Raptors are not winning anything against LeBron. Don't care how much more talent they have, they can't beat this Cavs team. It's gonna be easy money if Vegas favors them.

Better get your money down quick before the series starts. I’m seeing Cavs at +165 right now with Raptors at -195. Line was even higher earlier. Actually if you’re smart, wait until the Raptors win Game 1. You can probably get like +350. I’d be shocked to see Cleveland take Game 1 on the road 2 days after their Game 7 war where LeBron tried to play the whole game and had to leave with cramps.

[iggymcfrack]

For POY, I’d have LeBron up to #2 from #4 earlier. He certainly looks like the best player in the league, but it’s gotta take more than one good series against the 5 seed to make up for Harden’s vastly superior regular season when Harden’s had a very good playoffs as well.

[HeartBreakKid]

Who you guys got as executive and coach of the year? Stevens is my COY, as he probably has been for three seasons now, with D'Antoni and Snyder in 2nd and 3rd place.

Executive of the year I am torn between Morrey and Ainge. The Celtics certainly look like the team of the future while not being chop liver in the present, but if Houston wins this year based on their big signings, it'd be hard to argue against that.

[Outside]

After the first round, here's quick hits for a bunch of guys.

Harden -- RS leader, hasn't been consistent in the PS but still very good. I'm interested to see how the simplistic spread/iso offense holds up as the PS progresses. Has a significant but not insurmountable lead.

LeBron -- the most complex case and the one most open to interpretation. Brute force production in both the RS and PS. The pre-trade malaise hurts his case despite the production during that time. No one else can produce at that level while being the focus of everything, but having one player be such an extreme focus of the team, no matter how great that player, stymies other players and limits the team ceiling. It's a chicken/egg thing -- is the supporting cast so weak that LeBron has to take over all the time, or is LeBron taking over all the time making the supporting cast weak? I tend to think it's a little of both. I'm also aligned with Doctor MJ's thinking that LeBron has responsibility for the Cavs' situation and that downgrades his POY case somewhat.

Giannis -- another difficult case to assess. Excellent production, but it didn't translate as much as expected into team success, both RS and PS. Not sure how much of that is Kidd Effect, how much is thinness of the roster, and how much is Giannis.

Davis -- very good second half of RS and first round of PS. Not the playmaker that most other candidates are. Bonus points for carrying a weak roster to the playoffs, and an unexpectedly high seed at that, after Cousins went down. We'll see how he responds to the challenge of Golden State.

Butler -- had a solid case before he hurt his knee, did pretty well to end the RS after coming back, but had low impact in the PS. Slipping down the list due to missed game and poor PS.

Durant -- good but not great RS, has turned it up nicely in the PS in Curry's absence. A clear second to Curry in impact, but has played far more games than Curry.

Curry -- great impact, great efficiency, but has missed so many games. Still has a chance to climb up, but needs to be stellar and not miss any more time. It will be difficult to gauge Curry and Durant considering the relatively lackluster RS, but if they've truly flipped the switch and win another title, they have to be in the running.

Oladipo -- very good RS, ramped up rebounds and assists in the PS but dropped in scoring and TS%. Nice season, but probably on the outside looking in.

Paul -- very good in the RS but missed a chunk of games, hasn't been nearly as good as Harden in the PS.

Westbrook -- obviously able to produce, but like LeBron, does it as a result of being the focus of the offense in a way that limits the team ceiling. Unlike LeBron, mediocre to poor efficiency. The series against Utah didn't help his case.

Lillard -- was on the periphery after the RS, fell off the map after getting swept by the Pels.

DeRozan/Lowry -- not outstanding enough in the RS to distinguish themselves from a POY perspective. Could move up based on the PS.

Embiid -- very good RS, good PS. Missing time is a negative. Defense is a big plus. Turnovers are a negative. Interested to see how he does in his first PS.

Simmons -- like Embiid, very good RS and good PS. Lack of range is a big negative, but at least he knows his limitations. The combination of size, vision, athleticism, ballhandling, and poise is impressive. The poise will be tested from here on out in the PS.

Jokic -- not the dominant RS he could have had. Great collection of skills, but seemed to disappear in too many games. Not making the PS is a big negative, even if he had a great game against Minnesota in their play-in game. Making the PS is a season-long effort, not just one game.

Aldridge -- very nice RS, had a couple of good games in the PS, but not enough to distinguish himself and be in serious contention. Deserves to be in honorable mention group.

So here's where I'm at.

1. Harden
2. Davis
3. LeBron
4. Giannis
5. Embiid/Durant/Oladipo

On the outside with a chance to move up -- Curry, DeRozan, Lowry

[WarriorGM]

Not a single Celtics representative? Horford is more proven than some of the current candidates.

[bondom34]

I think I'm mostly with Outside on the group of guys in the running except I don't have Durant as really even close to top 5 at this point. Curry still is ahead even with time missed. I'm still at
Harden
Lebron or AD
AD or Lebron
Giannis
???

With 5 being Curry or Dipo or a Raptor. And some others I could probably be talked into

[therealbig3]

Harden, Davis, Giannis, LeBron, Dipo.

HM: Durant

Pretty sold on the top 4, with yes, Durant coming up close if I'm being objective. Still don't think much of his RS, but can't deny that he has led the Warriors to a 1st round series win and a dominant win to take a 1-0 lead over NO without Curry, and I actually thought NO had a chance in that series.

He was able to lead GS to really good team success in the PS without Curry. And I guess that's what he's proven to be: the greatest insurance policy ever. Whether it's carrying bench lineups or stepping up if Curry gets hurt, the Warriors are always in pretty good shape because of KD. To me, that's not very impressive for a superstar player, so I really dock him points in relation to someone like LeBron or Curry or Harden...but he's proven that he can lead this Warriors team to legit PS success without Curry.

As for Giannis...I thought he played great tbh. The Celtics were just the better team, and honestly, I think the Bucks overachieved pushing that series to 7 games. You can point to not having Kyrie, but they've proven themselves to still be a great team without him. They just convincingly beat a red-hot Sixers team without Kyrie as well.

I'm close to dropping Oladipo in favor of Durant, mainly because of how bad Oladipo was for about half that series against the Cavs. Would be one thing if he played well and they lost, then he's in the same boat as Giannis for me...but he was truly awful in games 3-5, and was limited by foul trouble in game 2. I'm assuming Curry will be on a minutes restriction when he comes back, and if Durant continues to lead GS lineups to success against NO, then I'll probably bump him up to 5.

That's a close one to me though.

[Outside]

Not a single Celtics representative? Horford is more proven than some of the current candidates.

I know in my case, Irving was part of the POY pool the first third of the RS fell off in the second third, then was out. Horford's been solid all year and has stepped up in Kyrie's absence in the PS, but here are his main box score stats:

RS: 12.9 pts, 7.4 reb, 4.7 ast, 0.6 stl, 1.1 blk, 1.8 tov, 57.5 TS%, .165 WS/48
PS: 19.1 pts, 8.5 reb, 3.4 reb, 0.6 stl, 1.3 blk, 2.4 tov, 70.4 TS%, .229 WS/48

I don't just look at box score stats, and I value PS significantly over RS, but those RS numbers are a significant hurdle to overcome from a POY perspective. I can't ignore the RS and elevate Horford into consideration just to be a token Celtics representative. Boston has shown impressive resilience, and Horford is definitely a significant part of that, but I give more credit to other factors -- coaching, overall team culture that fosters a defensive mindset and wouldn't allow them to fold after Hayward and then Kyrie went down, the emergence of Brown, Tatum, and Rozier, and the excellence of their role players within their roles. It's been an impressive performance by the Celtics, but it's truly been a team-wide effort. Horford's impact on that goes beyond his numbers, but I personally need a baseline of numbers to work with for POY consideration.

[dhsilv2]

Not a single Celtics representative? Horford is more proven than some of the current candidates.

I know in my case, Irving was part of the POY pool the first third of the RS fell off in the second third, then was out. Horford's been solid all year and has stepped up in Kyrie's absence in the PS, but here are his main box score stats:

RS: 12.9 pts, 7.4 reb, 4.7 ast, 0.6 stl, 1.1 blk, 1.8 tov, 57.5 TS%, .165 WS/48
PS: 19.1 pts, 8.5 reb, 3.4 reb, 0.6 stl, 1.3 blk, 2.4 tov, 70.4 TS%, .229 WS/48

I don't just look at box score stats, and I value PS significantly over RS, but those RS numbers are a significant hurdle to overcome from a POY perspective. I can't ignore the RS and elevate Horford into consideration just to be a token Celtics representative. Boston has shown impressive resilience, and Horford is definitely a significant part of that, but I give more credit to other factors -- coaching, overall team culture that fosters a defensive mindset and wouldn't allow them to fold after Hayward and then Kyrie went down, the emergence of Brown, Tatum, and Rozier, and the excellence of their role players within their roles. It's been an impressive performance by the Celtics, but it's truly been a team-wide effort. Horford's impact on that goes beyond his numbers, but I personally need a baseline of numbers to work with for POY consideration.

He's 22 in RPM so at least there is some basis for considering him a bit higher, top 5 seems like a stretch given he also only played about 30 min a game.