'17-'18 POY discussion

[Outside]

I think I'm mostly with Outside on the group of guys in the running except I don't have Durant as really even close to top 5 at this point. Curry still is ahead even with time missed. I'm still at
Harden
Lebron or AD
AD or Lebron
Giannis
???

With 5 being Curry or Dipo or a Raptor. And some others I could probably be talked into

Yeah, I could be talked into shuffling names between the five slot and HM pool. I came up with my top four pretty easily and stalled for a while thinking about the fifth spot. If I were to amend it, I'd have a top four and then a pool of other guys.

[Clyde Frazier]

Horford through 8 playoff games: 19.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, .6 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 70.4% TS (!), 128 ORTG, .229 WS/48

That’s damn impressive.

Edit - also has a +5.1 net rating in 278 minutes.

[iggymcfrack]

Not a single Celtics representative? Horford is more proven than some of the current candidates.

If you combined players and coaches into one list, I’d probably have Stevens as the 5th most valuable individual in the NBA. I wouldn’t have a single one of their players in the Top 25 though. They’re not even there statistically even with Brad helping them. If he wasn’t there, they’d be about the same as the Charlotte Bobcats and no one would even be thinking about them.

[therealbig3]

COY is between Lue and Kidd for me. Probably Lue because of durability.

[MisterHibachi]

Small sample size, but:

2009 playoffs points per 100: 47.5
2018 playoffs points per 100: 44.3

2014 playoffs TS%: 66.8
2018 playoffs TS%: 65.5

LeBron is scoring at close to 2009 rates with 2014 efficiency

[SideshowBob]

Small sample size, but:

2009 playoffs points per 100: 47.5
2018 playoffs points per 100: 44.3

2014 playoffs TS%: 66.8
2018 playoffs TS%: 65.5

LeBron is scoring at close to 2009 rates with 2014 efficiency

44.3 PTS per 100 after today's game, or 33.2 PTS per 75. Inching close his 09 mark which is the highest in league history (minimum 2 series).

Relative TS% is +9.9%.

2017 was 29.6 per/75 on +9.7% TS
2014 was 30.0 per/75 on +12.7% TS
2009 was 35.7 per/75 on +7.4% TS (all-time best)

[Outside]

Small sample size, but:

2009 playoffs points per 100: 47.5
2018 playoffs points per 100: 44.3

2014 playoffs TS%: 66.8
2018 playoffs TS%: 65.5

LeBron is scoring at close to 2009 rates with 2014 efficiency

LeBron has tremendous PS production, and there's likely no one else who could produce at that level in such an unbalanced offense, but I see this as an extreme demonstration of LeBron ball as floor raising and ceiling limiting. I can't just look at it and say, "Oh wow, what fantastic production, he's player of the year" and ignore all the unsettling undercurrents around this team and this performance. He definitely deserves credit for being able to do this, but it's not all good.

[MisterHibachi]

Small sample size, but:

2009 playoffs points per 100: 47.5
2018 playoffs points per 100: 44.3

2014 playoffs TS%: 66.8
2018 playoffs TS%: 65.5

LeBron is scoring at close to 2009 rates with 2014 efficiency

LeBron has tremendous PS production, and there's likely no one else who could produce at that level in such an unbalanced offense, but I see this as an extreme demonstration of LeBron ball as floor raising and ceiling limiting. I can't just look at it and say, "Oh wow, what fantastic production, he's player of the year" and ignore all the unsettling undercurrents around this team and this performance. He definitely deserves credit for being able to do this, but it's not all good.

What ceiling is he limiting for the Cavs?

[Doctor MJ]

Small sample size, but:

2009 playoffs points per 100: 47.5
2018 playoffs points per 100: 44.3

2014 playoffs TS%: 66.8
2018 playoffs TS%: 65.5

LeBron is scoring at close to 2009 rates with 2014 efficiency

For reference, LeBron's on-court playoff ORtg in those years:

2009: 115.1
2014: 112.7
2018: 104.2

It's fascinating to analyze. On the one hand it's MORE impressive that LeBron can pull off this individual scoring when the defense knows exactly what to expect, but on the other hand clearly, Cleveland's playing broken basketball if their offense is that ineffective despite LeBron's numbers.

[Outside]

Small sample size, but:

2009 playoffs points per 100: 47.5
2018 playoffs points per 100: 44.3

2014 playoffs TS%: 66.8
2018 playoffs TS%: 65.5

LeBron is scoring at close to 2009 rates with 2014 efficiency

LeBron has tremendous PS production, and there's likely no one else who could produce at that level in such an unbalanced offense, but I see this as an extreme demonstration of LeBron ball as floor raising and ceiling limiting. I can't just look at it and say, "Oh wow, what fantastic production, he's player of the year" and ignore all the unsettling undercurrents around this team and this performance. He definitely deserves credit for being able to do this, but it's not all good.

What ceiling is he limiting for the Cavs?

As great as LeBron is, as great an athlete as he is, this level of play is unsustainable for long in the playoffs. He's already said how tired he was after the Indiana series, and that's just one round. It's so predictable that he'll drive to the basket repeatedly in the first half, then settle for jump shots in the second half, a clear indication of reduced energy within games.

Being the single, overriding focus of the offense, no matter how great he is, means that quality defenses can load up on him, creating a wall on his drives and forcing him into more perimeter shots. An offense that relies on a single player is more vulnerable to being limited by the defense.

He clearly does not trust his teammates. The other Cavs know this. They are not the high-performing offense of years past led by LeBron's performance. LeBron's individual PS ORtg is 128.6, but the Cavs PS ORtg as a team is 104.5, which is 13th out of 16 playoff teams.They were first in ORtg in 2017 (120.3) and 2016 (115.5). They are tied with the Pacers at last in pace -- how well is this offense going to perform, and how well will LeBron's energy and production hold up, when they are forced to play faster?

The Cavs PS DRtg is 11th, and the only teams lower than them are out of the playoffs. They are 14th in effective FG%, 15th in TOV%, 2nd in 3PA but 15th in 3P%.

How you view this is open to interpretation. The other Cavs bear responsibility for the generally poor team performance, but I can't put all the blame there. LeBron deserved credit in prior years when his singular talent was the engine driving excellent team performance. He also bears responsibility for when that engine is disconnected from the team. It's like he's taking the approach that redlining the engine is the only way to keep them in the race, and you're pointing to the engine output as remarkable, which it is, but it's not sustainable, and the odds of being successful in the long run are slim to non-existent.

But hey, it's the East, so maybe he'll will his way into the finals. He's LeBron, so maybe the Raptors will crumble as they have in the past, leaving only the broken Celtics or neophyte Sixers in the finals. LeBron is remarkable as a floor raiser, and maybe the floor goes that high. But that limited ceiling will become evident at some point.

[ronnymac2]

Small sample size, but:

2009 playoffs points per 100: 47.5
2018 playoffs points per 100: 44.3

2014 playoffs TS%: 66.8
2018 playoffs TS%: 65.5

LeBron is scoring at close to 2009 rates with 2014 efficiency

Craziest thing about that 2009 run was his TOV% though. 35.3 points, 7.3 assists, 1.4 OREB, and just 2.7 turnovers per game. The lowest TOV% of his playoff career, a Jordan-esque 8.7%. That's insane.

[MisterHibachi]

Small sample size, but:

2009 playoffs points per 100: 47.5
2018 playoffs points per 100: 44.3

2014 playoffs TS%: 66.8
2018 playoffs TS%: 65.5

LeBron is scoring at close to 2009 rates with 2014 efficiency

For reference, LeBron's on-court playoff ORtg in those years:

2009: 115.1
2014: 112.7
2018: 104.2

It's fascinating to analyze. On the one hand it's MORE impressive that LeBron can pull off this individual scoring when the defense knows exactly what to expect, but on the other hand clearly, Cleveland's playing broken basketball if their offense is that ineffective despite LeBron's numbers.

Part of it is the lack of a secondary ball handler for a majority of the series, part of it is Lue insisting Green play significant minutes for whatever reason, and part of it is the Cavs' shooters shot *severely* worse than expected that whole series. I don't know if the numbers bear it out, but the Cavs offense looked night and day just during Hill's minutes. That secondary ball handler makes a lot of difference.

[MisterHibachi]

LeBron has tremendous PS production, and there's likely no one else who could produce at that level in such an unbalanced offense, but I see this as an extreme demonstration of LeBron ball as floor raising and ceiling limiting. I can't just look at it and say, "Oh wow, what fantastic production, he's player of the year" and ignore all the unsettling undercurrents around this team and this performance. He definitely deserves credit for being able to do this, but it's not all good.

What ceiling is he limiting for the Cavs?

As great as LeBron is, as great an athlete as he is, this level of play is unsustainable for long in the playoffs. He's already said how tired he was after the Indiana series, and that's just one round. It's so predictable that he'll drive to the basket repeatedly in the first half, then settle for jump shots in the second half, a clear indication of reduced energy within games.

Being the single, overriding focus of the offense, no matter how great he is, means that quality defenses can load up on him, creating a wall on his drives and forcing him into more perimeter shots. An offense that relies on a single player is more vulnerable to being limited by the defense.

He clearly does not trust his teammates. The other Cavs know this. They are not the high-performing offense of years past led by LeBron's performance. LeBron's individual PS ORtg is 128.6, but the Cavs PS ORtg as a team is 104.5, which is 13th out of 16 playoff teams.They were first in ORtg in 2017 (120.3) and 2016 (115.5). They are tied with the Pacers at last in pace -- how well is this offense going to perform, and how well will LeBron's energy and production hold up, when they are forced to play faster?

The Cavs PS DRtg is 11th, and the only teams lower than them are out of the playoffs. They are 14th in effective FG%, 15th in TOV%, 2nd in 3PA but 15th in 3P%.

How you view this is open to interpretation. The other Cavs bear responsibility for the generally poor team performance, but I can't put all the blame there. LeBron deserved credit in prior years when his singular talent was the engine driving excellent team performance. He also bears responsibility for when that engine is disconnected from the team. It's like he's taking the approach that redlining the engine is the only way to keep them in the race, and you're pointing to the engine output as remarkable, which it is, but it's not sustainable, and the odds of being successful in the long run are slim to non-existent.

But hey, it's the East, so maybe he'll will his way into the finals. He's LeBron, so maybe the Raptors will crumble as they have in the past, leaving only the broken Celtics or neophyte Sixers in the finals. LeBron is remarkable as a floor raiser, and maybe the floor goes that high. But that limited ceiling will become evident at some point.

This isn't a very interesting answer. You're basically saying LeBron's having to do it on his own this year, so therefore he's limiting the Cavs ceiling. Your initial post implied there was a higher level the Cavs could reach if LeBron played a different way. I don't personally see it, but maybe you could lay out for me how that higher level could be achieved?

[Texas Chuck]

How you view this is open to interpretation. The other Cavs bear responsibility for the generally poor team performance, but I can't put all the blame there. LeBron deserved credit in prior years when his singular talent was the engine driving excellent team performance. He also bears responsibility for when that engine is disconnected from the team. It's like he's taking the approach that redlining the engine is the only way to keep them in the race, and you're pointing to the engine output as remarkable, which it is, but it's not sustainable, and the odds of being successful in the long run are slim to non-existent.

.

Lebron gets singularly blamed for this tho. And ironically I believe its only because he is so incredible that he does. KG gets praised beyond measure for lifting the Wolves to 1st round exits.

Lebron continually drags his teams to the brink of a title, but van't always finish the deal so that we then want to assume he's creating these flawed teams overly dependent on him. Whereas if he failed like all other normal human superstars surrounded by such flawed rosters, I think we'd appreciate him more. We'd just acknowledge those teams had limits.

I am no Lebron fan, but I hate this narrative that has flourished that he's the problem. No the team is the problem(which admittedly he is part of), its just he's so freaking good he can solve the problem until he runs into an elite team at the end.

It's like Westbrook. or Kobe but to far less extents. When those guys look around and realize this team just isn't very good, they don't just keep playing team basketball that makes critics happy. No they decide the only chance we have is for me to put this team on my freaking back and see if I can do it. They almost certainly understand this is a flawed approach, but its also the only one with any hope of success. I think Lebron says the same thing.

He was always willing to defer to Wade or Kyrie at times, he was always willing to pass to open shooters(if he had confidence of success.). But criticizing a guy for playing "the wrong way" when its clearly the best way for his team to succeed--I just can't get on board with that.

[INKtastic]

LeBron has tremendous PS production, and there's likely no one else who could produce at that level in such an unbalanced offense, but I see this as an extreme demonstration of LeBron ball as floor raising and ceiling limiting. I can't just look at it and say, "Oh wow, what fantastic production, he's player of the year" and ignore all the unsettling undercurrents around this team and this performance. He definitely deserves credit for being able to do this, but it's not all good.

What ceiling is he limiting for the Cavs?

As great as LeBron is, as great an athlete as he is, this level of play is unsustainable for long in the playoffs. He's already said how tired he was after the Indiana series, and that's just one round. It's so predictable that he'll drive to the basket repeatedly in the first half, then settle for jump shots in the second half, a clear indication of reduced energy within games.

Being the single, overriding focus of the offense, no matter how great he is, means that quality defenses can load up on him, creating a wall on his drives and forcing him into more perimeter shots. An offense that relies on a single player is more vulnerable to being limited by the defense.

He clearly does not trust his teammates. The other Cavs know this. They are not the high-performing offense of years past led by LeBron's performance. LeBron's individual PS ORtg is 128.6, but the Cavs PS ORtg as a team is 104.5, which is 13th out of 16 playoff teams.They were first in ORtg in 2017 (120.3) and 2016 (115.5). They are tied with the Pacers at last in pace -- how well is this offense going to perform, and how well will LeBron's energy and production hold up, when they are forced to play faster?

The Cavs PS DRtg is 11th, and the only teams lower than them are out of the playoffs. They are 14th in effective FG%, 15th in TOV%, 2nd in 3PA but 15th in 3P%.

How you view this is open to interpretation. The other Cavs bear responsibility for the generally poor team performance, but I can't put all the blame there. LeBron deserved credit in prior years when his singular talent was the engine driving excellent team performance. He also bears responsibility for when that engine is disconnected from the team. It's like he's taking the approach that redlining the engine is the only way to keep them in the race, and you're pointing to the engine output as remarkable, which it is, but it's not sustainable, and the odds of being successful in the long run are slim to non-existent.

But hey, it's the East, so maybe he'll will his way into the finals. He's LeBron, so maybe the Raptors will crumble as they have in the past, leaving only the broken Celtics or neophyte Sixers in the finals. LeBron is remarkable as a floor raiser, and maybe the floor goes that high. But that limited ceiling will become evident at some point.

LeBron constantly tries to get his teammates going. The ceiling if he doesn't put that team on his back against Indy is a first round exit. We're talking about a player who lead both teams in points, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals to win the NBA championship just 2 years ago. Exactly how did he lower their ceiling?

[ardee]

Small sample size, but:

2009 playoffs points per 100: 47.5
2018 playoffs points per 100: 44.3

2014 playoffs TS%: 66.8
2018 playoffs TS%: 65.5

LeBron is scoring at close to 2009 rates with 2014 efficiency

Craziest thing about that 2009 run was his TOV% though. 35.3 points, 7.3 assists, 1.4 OREB, and just 2.7 turnovers per game. The lowest TOV% of his playoff career, a Jordan-esque 8.7%. That's insane.

That 2009 run was almost a decade ago, and I still can't believe he put that together. I didn't appreciate it in the moment, but every year looking back since, holy hell, what he was doing on a game to game basis was absolute lunacy.

[ardee]

LeBron has tremendous PS production, and there's likely no one else who could produce at that level in such an unbalanced offense, but I see this as an extreme demonstration of LeBron ball as floor raising and ceiling limiting. I can't just look at it and say, "Oh wow, what fantastic production, he's player of the year" and ignore all the unsettling undercurrents around this team and this performance. He definitely deserves credit for being able to do this, but it's not all good.

What ceiling is he limiting for the Cavs?

As great as LeBron is, as great an athlete as he is, this level of play is unsustainable for long in the playoffs. He's already said how tired he was after the Indiana series, and that's just one round. It's so predictable that he'll drive to the basket repeatedly in the first half, then settle for jump shots in the second half, a clear indication of reduced energy within games.

Being the single, overriding focus of the offense, no matter how great he is, means that quality defenses can load up on him, creating a wall on his drives and forcing him into more perimeter shots. An offense that relies on a single player is more vulnerable to being limited by the defense.

He clearly does not trust his teammates. The other Cavs know this. They are not the high-performing offense of years past led by LeBron's performance. LeBron's individual PS ORtg is 128.6, but the Cavs PS ORtg as a team is 104.5, which is 13th out of 16 playoff teams.They were first in ORtg in 2017 (120.3) and 2016 (115.5). They are tied with the Pacers at last in pace -- how well is this offense going to perform, and how well will LeBron's energy and production hold up, when they are forced to play faster?

The Cavs PS DRtg is 11th, and the only teams lower than them are out of the playoffs. They are 14th in effective FG%, 15th in TOV%, 2nd in 3PA but 15th in 3P%.

How you view this is open to interpretation. The other Cavs bear responsibility for the generally poor team performance, but I can't put all the blame there. LeBron deserved credit in prior years when his singular talent was the engine driving excellent team performance. He also bears responsibility for when that engine is disconnected from the team. It's like he's taking the approach that redlining the engine is the only way to keep them in the race, and you're pointing to the engine output as remarkable, which it is, but it's not sustainable, and the odds of being successful in the long run are slim to non-existent.

But hey, it's the East, so maybe he'll will his way into the finals. He's LeBron, so maybe the Raptors will crumble as they have in the past, leaving only the broken Celtics or neophyte Sixers in the finals. LeBron is remarkable as a floor raiser, and maybe the floor goes that high. But that limited ceiling will become evident at some point.

Your entire post is blaming the Cavs' team performance, and not LeBron's individual one. There is literally nothing more he can do when his teammates are not even looking like NBA players out there sometimes. Would you prefer he try not to force the issue and the Cavs lose to the Pacers?

[Dr Spaceman]

How you view this is open to interpretation. The other Cavs bear responsibility for the generally poor team performance, but I can't put all the blame there. LeBron deserved credit in prior years when his singular talent was the engine driving excellent team performance. He also bears responsibility for when that engine is disconnected from the team. It's like he's taking the approach that redlining the engine is the only way to keep them in the race, and you're pointing to the engine output as remarkable, which it is, but it's not sustainable, and the odds of being successful in the long run are slim to non-existent.

.

Lebron gets singularly blamed for this tho. And ironically I believe its only because he is so incredible that he does. KG gets praised beyond measure for lifting the Wolves to 1st round exits.

Lebron continually drags his teams to the brink of a title, but van't always finish the deal so that we then want to assume he's creating these flawed teams overly dependent on him. Whereas if he failed like all other normal human superstars surrounded by such flawed rosters, I think we'd appreciate him more. We'd just acknowledge those teams had limits.

I am no Lebron fan, but I hate this narrative that has flourished that he's the problem. No the team is the problem(which admittedly he is part of), its just he's so freaking good he can solve the problem until he runs into an elite team at the end.

It's like Westbrook. or Kobe but to far less extents. When those guys look around and realize this team just isn't very good, they don't just keep playing team basketball that makes critics happy. No they decide the only chance we have is for me to put this team on my freaking back and see if I can do it. They almost certainly understand this is a flawed approach, but its also the only one with any hope of success. I think Lebron says the same thing.

He was always willing to defer to Wade or Kyrie at times, he was always willing to pass to open shooters(if he had confidence of success.). But criticizing a guy for playing "the wrong way" when its clearly the best way for his team to succeed--I just can't get on board with that.

This is a good point, but I think in almost all cases these stars tend to underestimate the talent around them. The Cavs can play better than they are right now. I think that when we get into situations like this where “the teammates can’t make a shot/do anything” it’s to a significant degree due to the fact they have no space to breathe in the offense and so are only getting passes at the end of the shot clock and such. Basketball is a rhythm game and right now only one guy on the Cavs is allowed to dance.

Am I going to hold it against LeBron in the POY race? Honestly, no. Many of these guys were acquired at the trade deadline and you can’t just learn how to play together in three weeks. It is a weak supporting cast, and to the degree that I don’t think the team could actually see much better results by taking the ball out of lebron’s hands a little more (although I do want to note, keep an eye on the Hill/Love pick and roll: they only run it when LeBron is off the floor but they’ve gotten an excellent shot every single one of those possessions I’ve watched and it keyed their 9-0 run to close game 7 at IND).

[dhsilv2]

I want to comment on how great Curry was tonight, but Draymond was amazing. I figure he's not going to get his due, and I know he's likely out of the top 5 conversation, but if Horford is getting love, Dray has a similar resume.

And to Curry +26...just amazing game after a month off.

[Dr Spaceman]

LeBron has tremendous PS production, and there's likely no one else who could produce at that level in such an unbalanced offense, but I see this as an extreme demonstration of LeBron ball as floor raising and ceiling limiting. I can't just look at it and say, "Oh wow, what fantastic production, he's player of the year" and ignore all the unsettling undercurrents around this team and this performance. He definitely deserves credit for being able to do this, but it's not all good.

What ceiling is he limiting for the Cavs?

As great as LeBron is, as great an athlete as he is, this level of play is unsustainable for long in the playoffs. He's already said how tired he was after the Indiana series, and that's just one round. It's so predictable that he'll drive to the basket repeatedly in the first half, then settle for jump shots in the second half, a clear indication of reduced energy within games.

Being the single, overriding focus of the offense, no matter how great he is, means that quality defenses can load up on him, creating a wall on his drives and forcing him into more perimeter shots. An offense that relies on a single player is more vulnerable to being limited by the defense.

He clearly does not trust his teammates. The other Cavs know this. They are not the high-performing offense of years past led by LeBron's performance. LeBron's individual PS ORtg is 128.6, but the Cavs PS ORtg as a team is 104.5, which is 13th out of 16 playoff teams.They were first in ORtg in 2017 (120.3) and 2016 (115.5). They are tied with the Pacers at last in pace -- how well is this offense going to perform, and how well will LeBron's energy and production hold up, when they are forced to play faster?

The Cavs PS DRtg is 11th, and the only teams lower than them are out of the playoffs. They are 14th in effective FG%, 15th in TOV%, 2nd in 3PA but 15th in 3P%.

How you view this is open to interpretation. The other Cavs bear responsibility for the generally poor team performance, but I can't put all the blame there. LeBron deserved credit in prior years when his singular talent was the engine driving excellent team performance. He also bears responsibility for when that engine is disconnected from the team. It's like he's taking the approach that redlining the engine is the only way to keep them in the race, and you're pointing to the engine output as remarkable, which it is, but it's not sustainable, and the odds of being successful in the long run are slim to non-existent.

But hey, it's the East, so maybe he'll will his way into the finals. He's LeBron, so maybe the Raptors will crumble as they have in the past, leaving only the broken Celtics or neophyte Sixers in the finals. LeBron is remarkable as a floor raiser, and maybe the floor goes that high. But that limited ceiling will become evident at some point.

I get what you’re saying. The closer you run to your max heart rate, it becomes exponentially harder to keep that up over a distance.

That said, why should we penalize LeBron for this high-effort approach? Do you realistically think this current Cavs roster could ever, under any circumstances, make or win the Finals? So what is LeBron saving his energy for? Long-term sustainability isn’t really a factor for me if your team as no long-term shot of winning but you maximize their chances in the short term.