The Lebron Thread (2015-16 Pt. 3)

[Doctor MJ]

I'll start with last point first. Because quite frankly the 2014 Miami Heat on defense were barely the same team. It's what happens when you rely on veterans who become old. Haslem and Battier got to the point where they basically became unplayable. Their defensive ability was a big reason why the Heat's style worked so well. Battier basically retired halfway through the season and Haslem went from nominal starter in 2013 to barely playing really quick. Replacing those minutes with Rashard Lewis and James Jones minutes fundamentally changes what that team was defensively. I'm not going to get into the whole Lebron thing. He was disappointing on defense most of that season (as I noted many times throughout the Lebron threads) while also having like a top 5-6 offensive season of all time.

I think we are disagreeing on certain terms here then. Heat weren't "big", they notedly had tremendous issues with Roy Hibbert. They were long because of all the turnovers they were forcing (4th in opposing TO%). Being everywhere, scrambling and recovering and contesting. You can be smothering and long without being big.

Dwyane Wade's knee injury is really all I have to say about that 2013 playoff run. They were very fortunate to win the championship you are correct. Through the first 18 games of that playoffs he averaged 14pts on 48TS%, he was absolute garbage on both ends. Wade during the win streak was 23-6-6 on 58TS% when they looked unbeatable and through the whole season 21-5-5 on 57TS%. +9.4 on-off in the regular season to a -14.5 on-off in the playoffs.

What do you know he gets his "knee drained" puts up 24-6-4 on 53TS% over the last 4 and they take 3/4 against a team that was beating the pants off the them. Wade's injury was felt across both ends of the court. He was no longer a cutting threat off Lebron and teams just ignored him vs. him having a crazy spacing effect due to his cutting. So along with being unable to make a shot he was also making it super hard for Bron to generate offense. Over that playoffs the best Heat lineup was Bron + bench vs. the regular season where all Bron-Wade lineups merked everything because of their new found chemistry learning how to play off ball with one another. He was also not hyper active defensively. So much of the Heat's defense is based on Wade getting his gigantic wingspan and athleticism in the way of passes. He was amazing at deflecting passes and shrinking the floor when he and Bosh were blitzing.

Without a healthy Wade. That team isn't a world beating team. Wade + peak Bron's chemistry + all that shooting is what made them special. It was a ~40 game peak that you truly had to be watching closely to appreciate on both ends. Normally you wouldn't pay much attention to it. 40 games is only half a season. But they were coming off a Finals in 2011 and then a championship and it felt the culmination of everything that they were building towards.

I just don't see how anyone that was watching that team closely would have anything negatively to say about their defense other than the fact that they got killed by huge centers. They made really good/ star level perimeter players look really bad throughout the entire duration of their run together (see Parker and Ginobili in that Finals, MVP Derrick Rose, James Harden in the 2012 Finals, they made Linsanity look like he didn't belong in the NBA etc.) because of their crazy length and athleticism on the perimieter. Those guys weren't Steph Curry of course (GOAT offensive peak) but they were as well equipped as anyone to play a style that could limit him and Thompson as much as any one.

Going back to my point. Watching the OKC series only reinforces what I think about this hypothetical matchup.

Okay, so the team wasn't "big" but were "long" because they were so damn tenacious, but that went away the very next year because they were an old team. An old team apparently far more tenacious than OKC's tenacious and much higher-reaching teams. I'm skeptical.

What I will say is that I think you're in some ways combining all the Heat teams together. The team wasn't at its most tenacious in '12-13, in fact by relative defensive rating they were worse than they'd been in the prior Heatle years. You're evidently not talking about that Heat team in terms of how they appeared in any post-season, so you're focusing on what they did on their streak and chalking up the return to form afterward as being a fluke of injury. You're welcome to that belief but I don't really feel like arguing about that right now.

[bleeds_purple]

Main point the heat sacrificed a lot of threes to double down on rim protection during an era when the 3 point threats were much less diverse, they would most likely struggle against the warriors on this end, enough to be outscored in general IMO.

Appreciate you taking the time to write that up.

I would also add that, in addition to open threes, they sacrificed open driving lanes to the screen setter knowing that individual wasn't much of a driving threat. You simply cannot do that with the Warriors, particularly when they go to the death lineup. Giving Green an open lane either ends up in a lob dunk, an open three, or him making a layup. We've seen it so often.

[tone wone]

Summarizing what you are saying is that Lebron and Love do not fit....well whose fault is that. Why is Love in CLE if he could not play with Lebron and they cannot maximize their skills together. Who do you think would have an easier time making an adjustment?

Just because Lebron can get his during the RS does not mean he should be the focal point of the offense. Look at what is happening now. Kevin/Mozgov or even Lebron could be making the Warriors adjust if they had every decided to use that as an option. Why is Mozgov/Love on the team if you don't want to post them up more than twice a game? If you wanted to play fast and small they should have kept Wiggins.

You saying that Lebron should play more like 2010 Lebron is living in the fantasy world. That Lebron is gone and dead. You have to work with what you have now. Lebron is working from the perimeter, he thinks like you do that he can still get the rim at will (he can't) and worse his jumper has deserted him. How can you play more perimeter without a perimeter shot? What kind of logic is that?

If you think that the 2012 Heat were underdogs to the Thunder well we will just have to agree to disagree. Lebron has owned Durant in matchups as long as I can remember. This is why I would have picked the Cavaliers THIS YEAR over the Thunder. See the playoffs aren't about the regular season...its not about the analytics...its not about who is playing their best at this time of year. Its about matchups:

Lebron > Durant until Kevin shows he can beat Lebron this matchup is bad for OKC and makes them underdogs.

However

Iguodola > Lebron....Kawhi > Lebron

Since the Cavaliers (and yourself) coaching staff have made Lebron the #1 option and basically everyone else supports whatever Lebron decides to do on the court all a team has to do is find a way to neutralize Lebron. Detroit had no answer...Atlanta had no answer...Toronto used Biyombo and Patrick Patterson as much as they could but they were not up to the task. But the 2011 Mavericks exposed how to beat a Lebron team. Get yourself a defender who can physically matchup with him (relatively does not have to be exact) and put a big man behind in the paint with length. Marion + Chandler gave Lebron fits. The Spurs refined the strategy in 2014 with Kawhi + Duncan. In 2015 the Warriors used Iguodola + Bogut/Draymond...the 2016 Warriors are just keeping the same strategy going.

The Thunder do not have that ability. In theory Durant should be able to bother Lebron but he is too light, Ibaka does not have the footspeed/lateral quickeness, and Roberson would be too small. But if they acquired a 6'7 - 6'9 defender who could hit three's so they don't have to put Durant on Lebron they could beat the Cavs.......

1. I dont know why CLE traded for Love. I railed against that move the moment it was rumored. Kevin Love and Lebron James shouldn't be teammates.

2. I didn't suggest that Lebron play like his 2010 self. I said that version of him would fit next to Love or any post up big better than Lebron currently can because in 2010 he was unequivocally a perimeter player...specifically a great high scoring dynamic wing. In 2016 he is a playmaking PF with a broke jumper.

3. From 2011-2014 MIA played in 16 playoff series. They were underdogs twice. 2012 Finals against OKC & 2014 Finals against SAS. There is nothing to argue. These are facts.

4. Yes, CLE identified Lebron as the best scoring option and devised a scheme that complimented that. So has every half decent team throughout the history of the league. Maybe this plan seems wrong because Lebron is no longer a great scorer but CLE isn't the 1st team to find themselves in contention with a really good but not great scorer as their lead dog.

5. You're trying SO hard to connect the issues of 2016 Lebron/CLE with a larger career long problem Keep spinning though... and we'll be able connect CLE scoring issues against the Warriors to MIA not being able to guard SAS in 2014 to CLE losing to BOS in 2010 to St. Vincent/St. Marys losing the state title in 2002.

[Heej]

. . . that's why the Heat were even in good enough to get to the Finals in 2011 and 2012. Offensively they weren't special (they got by on talent). Defensively they were with those 3. It was 2013 when both came together and that's why they had a 27 game win streak.

Sure Miami had a great defense. But honestly it was sort of gimmicky. They trapped the ball-handler nearly 100% of the time and then forced your bigs to be good enough to make the right play and fast enough before they could rotate back.

That works when the release valve is Kendrick Perkins or David West and even then Indiana started to figure it out albeit they never had the talent to make it really work. It certainly doesn't work when its Draymond Green leading a four on three.

I actually would go as far to say the Warriors would destroy Miami's trap defense. If they kept it up all game Draymond would end up with some rediculous assist totals. Which means Miami would have to adjust to switching. And I'm not sure I like the idea of Miller, Battier, Allen, or even the older Battier having to constantly switch onto Curry.

It would be a much closer series than what we're watching right now no doubt. And highly entertaining. But I would definitely favor the Warriors.

Eh, after watching how Steven Adams and Ibaka were able to get back into the play so quickly and flummox Green many times by the time he rumbled down to the rim, I doubt '12 &'13 Bosh would have much trouble replicating that impact. And those versions of Bosh were the perfect big to switch onto Curry, moreso than Ibaka.

Battier would've been on Harrison Barnes in any hypothetical matchup and he wouldn't be able to do enough against Miami's expert rotations to make them get away from trapping on a Curry-Barnes PnR.

That Miami team honestly was the perfect foil to this Warriors team those 2 championship years. Especially when Wade was healthy in '12-'13 and the team leveled up after a second training camp under the new system.

Also, you can disparage the Heat's defense and call it gimmicky if you want but the Warriors are doing the same thing playing a junk defense switching everything 1-5. If the personnel and coaching are there any defensive scheme can be effective.

[bleeds_purple]

Also, you can disparage the Heat's defense and call it gimmicky if you want but the Warriors are doing the same thing playing a junk defense switching everything 1-5. If the personnel and coaching are there any defensive scheme can be effective.

There's a huge difference. I consider the Heat's defense a gimmick because it purposefully leaves players momentarily wide open and relies on sheer speed to make up the difference. It incentivizes the other team to play team ball. It speeds you up and forces you into your actions. A smart team can expose the gimmick by setting up a release valve on the screen and turning the situation into a four on three. We saw a couple teams during the Heatles era do this with varying levels of success.

The main reason I don't like that style of defense is because it automatically creates a double team which is something that offenses usually have to work hard to create and/or require an elite offensive player who would command a double. When a defense traps every screen it automatically puts them a step behind and forces them to scramble and waste tons of energy getting back in front of the defense. Coincidentally, it works really well against unprepared and lesser skilled teams as we saw with Miami when they would absolutely smother teams with traps. I remember during Linsanity in particular they absolutely crushed Lin with this style. But if you are going against superior talents with time to prepare they can easily exploit the self-created holes. This is why I call it a gimmick.

A switching defense doesn't have these flaws. Its actually the opposite. It doesn't intentionally leave players wide open. It incentivizes the other team to play isolation ball. It slows you down and takes you out of your actions. Essentially the Warriors bet that your isolation, even if conducted with a mismatch, will not beat their team play.

Make no mistake, I'm not suggesting the Warriors would steamroll the Heat. But I do think they would force them to adjust their entire defensive philosophy and quickly abandon the blitzing.

I also disagree regarding any defensive scheme being effective. For example, there is no combination of "personnel and coaching" that could make ICEing screen action involving Curry as a ball-handler effective. Rather, good teams will adjust their defense for the opponent. This is true in every sport.

[Heej]

Also, you can disparage the Heat's defense and call it gimmicky if you want but the Warriors are doing the same thing playing a junk defense switching everything 1-5. If the personnel and coaching are there any defensive scheme can be effective.

There's a huge difference. I consider the Heat's defense a gimmick because it purposefully leaves players momentarily wide open and relies on sheer speed to make up the difference. It incentivizes the other team to play team ball. It speeds you up and forces you into your actions. A smart team can expose the gimmick by setting up a release valve on the screen and turning the situation into a four on three. We saw a couple teams during the Heatles era do this with varying levels of success.

The main reason I don't like that style of defense is because it automatically creates a double team which is something that offenses usually have to work hard to create and/or require an elite offensive player who would command a double. When a defense traps every screen it automatically puts them a step behind and forces them to scramble and waste tons of energy getting back in front of the defense. Coincidentally, it works really well against unprepared and lesser skilled teams as we saw with Miami when they would absolutely smother teams with traps. I remember during Linsanity in particular they absolutely crushed Lin with this style. But if you are going against superior talents with time to prepare they can easily exploit the self-created holes. This is why I call it a gimmick.

A switching defense doesn't have these flaws. Its actually the opposite. It doesn't intentionally leave players wide open. It incentivizes the other team to play isolation ball. It slows you down and takes you out of your actions. Essentially the Warriors bet that your isolation, even if conducted with a mismatch, will not beat their team play.

Make no mistake, I'm not suggesting the Warriors would steamroll the Heat. But I do think they would force them to adjust their entire defensive philosophy and quickly abandon the blitzing.

I also disagree regarding any defensive scheme being effective. For example, there is no combination of "personnel and coaching" that could make ICEing screen action involving Curry as a ball-handler effective. Rather, good teams will adjust their defense for the opponent. This is true in every sport.

Once again it comes down to personnel as I stated earlier. Yes you can short roll or short pick and rolls as counters but teams that have the optimized personnel with the recovery speed and hands/length to properly deflect balls in passing lanes can tilt the scales in their favor enough to make it an effective scheme.

You fail to see the fallacy in your statement regarding switching defenses as one again there are very clear flaws specifically in terms of mismatches on the ball and on offensive rebounds that can make it an untenable scheme unless you have the optimized personnel for it like the Warriors currently do or the 2014 Brooklyn Nets.

The ICE scheme vs Curry is the one I knew you would bring up in an attempt to refute my point about personnel but even then you're wrong. While it is painfully obvious some offenses and offensive players are super effective against certain schemes even an obvious example like the one you mentioned it is still possible to play that scheme against Curry provided you have the right players for it.

A hypothetical souped up version of KCP or Marcus Smart that essentially is impossible to screen to the point that they're one step short of teleporting through screens defending Curry at PG and a mobile athletic big like Anthony Davis with superior closeout technique on 3 pointers when the screener pops for a jumper would still be able to make what would be an otherwise irrational scheme work with the given that the back line rotations are what they need to be for this thought experiment to fly.

Even though a playmaking big like Green is the natural antidote to a trapping scheme the Heatles during their flying death machine peak are the most optimized set of personnel to run blitzing schemes in NBA history due to the coaching and players. Especially given the fact that thecurrent Warriors penchant for turnovers is the one chink in their armor and that Miami team being every bit d devastating in transition.

In the same way these Warriors just have more possessions where mismatches on ballhandlers and rebounders end up not hurting them allows them to play this style, there's simply more possessions the prime Heatles will deflect passes to the roll man, turn Curry around and pressure him a step back to halfcourt, get a hand on the ball during his dribble, or force him to give it to a wing player, that will stall the offense more than any team has been able to the last 2 years blitzing on pick and rolls.

[RSCD3_]

Listening to the lowe post

Kyrie is shooting 8-9 off a past, where an assist oppurtunity is present and 4-27 other wise, his isolation PPP is 0.15 PPP. That's Absolutely heretical. Lowe mentioned he might be able to get that .

30+ Isolation Possessions In game 1, the highest of any team this year in RS or PS

[G35]

You're right I was being lazy. Being consistent about the topic. I'm going back through just this thread and posting things that seem relevant. Perhaps they will be relevant to you as well.

Anyone else feels like Atlanta is the 2nd best team in the East right now, or is it just me?

Lebron 3-Man Lineups in the playoffs

2-Man

James + Love putting up 128 ORTG

I missed the game discussion.

But pretty much the meta thinking unstoppability of the Love, Frye w/ Lebron on lineup came to fruition in that 4th quarter.

Lebron + small pick and roll with a 42% corner shooter and a 40% corner shooter in the other means it's a Lebron + small pick and roll with 0 rim protection. There's no defense for that at all. No team ever can stop that.

Besides GS's death lineup of Curry-Klay-Iggy-Barnes-Green, is there a clearly more potent 3-point shooting lineup than Kyrie-JR-LeBron-Love-Frye in NBA history? Maybe I'm overreacting to the small sample size, but it looked unstoppable at times on the offensive end.

If he's this willing to be featured off the ball (50% assisted) and as the primary on-ball screener + serviceable 3P shooting (especially catch & shoot/spot-up shooting ~39%) he's gotta be pretty darn high right? At least higher than last year. Both those things make him super portable on offense as well and the results are bearing that out with the GOAT offense by a margin and basically everyone on the entire team going off simultaneously.

Aside from the back court, I actually believe the Cavs have much better shooters. Iggy, Barnes, and Green have good percentages, but their volume is much lower than James, Love and Frye, and historically there percentages are worse. They shoot only when they're WIIIIDE open, where as Love and Frye consistently bomb away with high volume.

Of course Curry is in his own galaxy when it comes to threes, and Thompson is the a solid distance better than anyone else on the Cavs so they more then make up the difference.

Love's really good at hitting a cutting Lebron down the middle.

LeBron playing with goat playoff performer in klove 12-0 still undefeated

3rd time Lebron has swept the Hawks lol. Teams ill have near perfect confidence in him owning in playoffs: Bulls, Hawks and Thunder


I think its gonna be a give or take given the lineups.

With Kyrie, Love and Frye getting the minutes they are theyre gonna blow the lids off offensively, but theres no way theyre gonna be playing mostly good defense. Otoh the lineups they had in last years playoffs they can still play best non Spurs level defense, but not with Kyrie, Love and Frye getting major minutes in lineups.

Teams this year are much more liberal about going way under screens, not respecting him outside (no spacing effect), switching bigs onto him and holding the possession closer to 1pt vs. 1.2pts. Just too many possessions grind to a halt due to this limitation. He's still god tier passer/ close to the best post player and killer cutting and rolling but results wise it isn't that different.

So maybe like 4.75-5 to 5-5.25.

On one hand I love the way the Cavs are playing on offense; team-oriented, sharing the ball, getting everyone involved, and taking efficient shots (open 3's mostly). And LeBron has been a big part of that with his excellent passing and being far less ball-dominant than usual.

On the other hand however, I am pretty concerned about his individual scoring ability thus far. We all know his jumper is mostly broken (though a bit better in the playoffs, but that's not saying much), but his inside finishing, post-up moves, and even explosiveness on the break have been really underwhelming. Last game especially, he was falling down on drives, getting blocked, not dunking anything, and not showing any craft in the post (got stoned by Thabo a lot!). Also, his FT shooting is terrible. Overall, he just looks much less powerful and capable of exerting his will, in terms of his own scoring.

What do you guys think is wrong? Is he dinged up? Is he just really tired? It's strange because at the end of the regular season, his finishing looked really good, better than last year. And look at Wade these playoffs; the guy is 3 years older with more injuries and he's BRINGING IT. So far, the Cavs have played great team ball, but I'm worried that when they need LeBron to dominate individually, he won't be able to...

His own scoring ability has been THE lingering concern for me this entire season. If i'm not mistaken, he didn't have a 40pt game this year. While 40 points isn't necessarily some benchmark needed to prove scoring ability...it does lead me to wonder just how high he can he scale his own scoring.

As you said, CLE offense is killing ****. With Kyrie looking like his 2015 self and the 3pt shot being on for everyone in the rotation (sans Tristan & Bron) maybe Lebron can 23ppg his way to a title....but I wouldn't bet on it. His actual scoring shouldn't be all that threatening to a defense like GSW's.

Meh, I think less LBJ p&r is a good thing on a team with other star level scorers. The ball movement has been great. I'd like to see more post touches for LBJ and love, but it's nit picking. I think in many ways his off scoring has resulted in what we are seeing from the cavs.

I would like to see some more spring, but we saw it late in the season and the Cavs have a week off. He should be rested up. Then, with how bad Toronto and Miami look, I think the Cavs may have more rest prior to the finals. We shall see.

I dont think hes coasting as such (well maybe on defense some times) but more trying to get the team playing great as a whole and specifically love and irving. He knows they need to play great for us to win so i think hes leaving a lot of responsibility to them while he can.

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/118274/infographic-lebron-james-igniting-cavaliers-shooters

When can we start throwing portability arguments out the window in the face of LBJ orchestrating the GOAT offense

Cavs with ~35% chance to win it all according to vegas. Makes me optimistic considering theyou appeared to have 0% chance for much of the season.

Some of these lineups, especially with Love/Frye, just blow the lid off of their opponents. Snipers in every spot.

Lebron is so disciplined defensively.

I'm at the point now where I may not ever watch CLE in the regular season again because it leads me to say negative things I have to go back on. They are DAMN good.

Kyrie is the main guy for me, I don't know what it is but his style of attack is so much more potent when the rest of the team is playing high-energy ball. In reg season grind fests he can be prone to shot selection issues, but holy crap is he dangerous in games like this. All last playoffs I talked about how smart he looked about his offensive game there, and he's coming back and doing the same thing again. Little things like going right into the heart of the paint when Derozan got caught under the basket on the other end, or how he can freeze and entire defense in semi-transition with just a half-beat hesitation dribble, or the way he walks defenders right into the lap of a screener with his wicked handles.

Can't be,I've I'm writing basically a Kyrie Irving love post, but yeah there it is.

If they can hold up defensively like they have been with LeBron in this game, this offense + focused defense is above what the thunder and warriors can reach I believe.

Yep. The main thing is Cleveland will get through the East without having seen a team that has intelligence/discipline/smarts enough to control mistakes and play good D AND the scoring talent to keep up- Atlanta and Toronto both have 1 but not the other. Against one of the West juggernauts is where we might see Irving's approach start to falter.

That said, I really just like to appreciate great ball while it's happening- so I'm on the Irving bandwagon for now

Yeah I have this version pretty high given his level of play from March-May.

[/quote][/quote]


This is from the first seven pages of this thread. I don't have to say anything. Just 3 weeks ago Lebron and the Cavaliers were getting high praise.

When a team is winning everyone is happy. When a team is losing there is plenty of blame for everyone....well almost everyone.....

TL;DR winning and losing create narratives that, may in fact, contradict each other.... over reaction? But in which direction.....

[tsherkin]

Fantastic summary post, G. That was really useful for directing the conversation, nicely done.

[RSCD3_]

Ill note that my statement was qualified if they could hold up defensively like they did in game 5 where they held the raptors to 78 points, unsustainable of course but I figure if they could hold a decent offense to slightly below league average they might slow down the warroirs to say simply 110 ORTG

...It's still something I cant take back thought but I think the cavs have played a worse strategic game and I underrated the warriors defensively. Nobody expected them to struggle this much on offense

[JLei]

Also, you can disparage the Heat's defense and call it gimmicky if you want but the Warriors are doing the same thing playing a junk defense switching everything 1-5. If the personnel and coaching are there any defensive scheme can be effective.

There's a huge difference. I consider the Heat's defense a gimmick because it purposefully leaves players momentarily wide open and relies on sheer speed to make up the difference. It incentivizes the other team to play team ball. It speeds you up and forces you into your actions. A smart team can expose the gimmick by setting up a release valve on the screen and turning the situation into a four on three. We saw a couple teams during the Heatles era do this with varying levels of success.

The main reason I don't like that style of defense is because it automatically creates a double team which is something that offenses usually have to work hard to create and/or require an elite offensive player who would command a double. When a defense traps every screen it automatically puts them a step behind and forces them to scramble and waste tons of energy getting back in front of the defense. Coincidentally, it works really well against unprepared and lesser skilled teams as we saw with Miami when they would absolutely smother teams with traps. I remember during Linsanity in particular they absolutely crushed Lin with this style. But if you are going against superior talents with time to prepare they can easily exploit the self-created holes. This is why I call it a gimmick.

A switching defense doesn't have these flaws. Its actually the opposite. It doesn't intentionally leave players wide open. It incentivizes the other team to play isolation ball. It slows you down and takes you out of your actions. Essentially the Warriors bet that your isolation, even if conducted with a mismatch, will not beat their team play.

Make no mistake, I'm not suggesting the Warriors would steamroll the Heat. But I do think they would force them to adjust their entire defensive philosophy and quickly abandon the blitzing.

I also disagree regarding any defensive scheme being effective. For example, there is no combination of "personnel and coaching" that could make ICEing screen action involving Curry as a ball-handler effective. Rather, good teams will adjust their defense for the opponent. This is true in every sport.

Once again it comes down to personnel as I stated earlier. Yes you can short roll or short pick and rolls as counters but teams that have the optimized personnel with the recovery speed and hands/length to properly deflect balls in passing lanes can tilt the scales in their favor enough to make it an effective scheme.

You fail to see the fallacy in your statement regarding switching defenses as one again there are very clear flaws specifically in terms of mismatches on the ball and on offensive rebounds that can make it an untenable scheme unless you have the optimized personnel for it like the Warriors currently do or the 2014 Brooklyn Nets.

The ICE scheme vs Curry is the one I knew you would bring up in an attempt to refute my point about personnel but even then you're wrong. While it is painfully obvious some offenses and offensive players are super effective against certain schemes even an obvious example like the one you mentioned it is still possible to play that scheme against Curry provided you have the right players for it.

A hypothetical souped up version of KCP or Marcus Smart that essentially is impossible to screen to the point that they're one step short of teleporting through screens defending Curry at PG and a mobile athletic big like Anthony Davis with superior closeout technique on 3 pointers when the screener pops for a jumper would still be able to make what would be an otherwise irrational scheme work with the given that the back line rotations are what they need to be for this thought experiment to fly.

Even though a playmaking big like Green is the natural antidote to a trapping scheme the Heatles during their flying death machine peak are the most optimized set of personnel to run blitzing schemes in NBA history due to the coaching and players. Especially given the fact that thecurrent Warriors penchant for turnovers is the one chink in their armor and that Miami team being every bit d devastating in transition.

In the same way these Warriors just have more possessions where mismatches on ballhandlers and rebounders end up not hurting them allows them to play this style, there's simply more possessions the prime Heatles will deflect passes to the roll man, turn Curry around and pressure him a step back to halfcourt, get a hand on the ball during his dribble, or force him to give it to a wing player, that will stall the offense more than any team has been able to the last 2 years blitzing on pick and rolls.

Responding more to bleeds_purple here.

I actually agree that its a high risk high reward style that is energy intensive. It's also ridiculously hard to deal with when it was clicking. It's trying to pass over 2 long guys (usually Wade/ Bosh) to get the ball to the short roll man with Lebron running at him to intercept the pass with whoever in the corner (Mario/ Battier) sliding down to cover Bron who is covering for Bosh. Getting a pass through to the playmaking 4 man in a usable position over a double team and while also trying to avoid getting it stolen by Lebron is nice in theory but very hard to do so in reality. Even if the 4 catches it cleanly he still has usually Lebron or Battier in his face ready to deflect/ deter the easy pass. Many teams melted down (including the Spurs by the end of that series) to the point of stagnation because what happens is Bosh and Wade/ Chalmers will generally blow up the pick and roll your roll man has to come way up high as a release valve to avoid Lebron vs. catching it in a dangerous position and now you are up against the shot clock trying to reset.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxiaFkc-n2w[/youtube]

Something simple like this. Would be really nice Aldridge rolls right to the free throw line and gets a pass from Lillard. Lillard still has to try to find a way to get a through Bosh and Wade which is super hard which is why Aldridge comes way up high to catch it.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQZZndWhpQQ[/youtube]

Or this one. Would be nice if Josh Smith could catch it at the elbow (Smith is actually a very good passer in the playmaking 4 type player). Thing is getting a pass through Bosh's length and avoiding Lebron sliding over is pretty hard here. Smith knows this so he stays high as a release. Play is blown up.

If the Heat weren't LONG and athletic I agree that this style would put their team at too much of a disadvantage because it is a double team and proved out in 2014 once the guys that really could execute it became older and less reliable. But with the healthy team in 2013. Was ridiculous.

[Dupp]

Listening to the lowe post

Kyrie is shooting 8-9 off a past, where an assist oppurtunity is present and 4-27 other wise, his isolation PPP is 0.15 PPP. That's Absolutely heretical. Lowe mentioned he might be able to get that .

30+ Isolation Possessions In game 1, the highest of any team this year in RS or PS

I saw that stat about Kyrie the other day and it's not shocking.
I wonder if coaches actually have the sense to go to Kyrie and show him stuff like that. I know he's pretty stubborn in the way he thinks he plays good ball. I wonder if he continues to be trash in the finals and we get murdered if he might consider improving.

[MisterHibachi]

Love out tonight.

[G35]

Ill note that my statement was qualified if they could hold up defensively like they did in game 5 where they held the raptors to 78 points, unsustainable of course but I figure if they could hold a decent offense to slightly below league average they might slow down the warroirs to say simply 110 ORTG

...It's still something I cant take back thought but I think the cavs have played a worse strategic game and I underrated the warriors defensively. Nobody expected them to struggle this much on offense

I respect your post. We are ALL wrong at times. I don't anyone expected the Cavaliers to struggle like this. We all know Lebron is a monster, and the assumption was he could do something similar to last years performance. His outside shot is putting a damper on the offense and I don't think you can blame that all on Kyrie/Kevin. If Lebron could hit just a few outside shots, like 2 or 3 in the first quarter, that would do wonders for everyone, including his own confidence.

I am actually looking for Lebron to be better, the whole team to be better in fact. Its disappointing the Love won't be back but if the NBA concussion protocol is anything similar to the NFL's they just did not have enough time to clear him.....

[tsherkin]

I don't anyone expected the Cavaliers to struggle like this.

I can't recall anyone who did. I know many people thought that the Warriors were going to win handily, but I don't think anyone believed it would happen this way. I think that people knew that the Cavs would struggle to DEFEND the Warriors, but I don't recall anyone expecting this level of pervasive offensive ineptitude from them.

His outside shot is putting a damper on the offense

This isn't how I'd characterize Lebron's struggles, personally, not given the spaces he's occupying in this offense. I would agree, however, that his offensive struggles have very much contributed to the team's struggles on O, though, obviously.

and I don't think you can blame that all on Kyrie/Kevin. If Lebron could hit just a few outside shots, like 2 or 3 in the first quarter, that would do wonders for everyone, including his own confidence.

I doubt it. He was 2/4 from 3 in the first game and it meant absolutely nothing while Kyrie looked like a D-Leaguer en route to a 7-22 shooting performance littered with weak decision-making. Between Kyrie/Love and the bench, the team's offense has been total garbage, and Lebron hitting a couple of jumpers wasn't going to help them at all.

I am actually looking for Lebron to be better, the whole team to be better in fact. Its disappointing the Love won't be back but if the NBA concussion protocol is anything similar to the NFL's they just did not have enough time to clear him.....

The protocol didn't explicitly deny him the ability to play in this game. It's a day after the prerequisite hold-out. He was making progress and they were able to clear him technically (as far as I understood and from my reading of the 15-16 concussion policy), but have chosen not to. That's no guarantee, obviously, I could be missing something as I'm obviously not an expect on this particular policy or privy to the inner decision making of the med staff.

[JLei]

Does anyone expect an empty the gas tank game just to try to get 1?

He has to have a few of them left. Last year he used one against Atlanta in game 3 and in game 2 in the Finals and ran out.

I don't know if it will be enough but he's not going to go out trying with just team ball. Even game 5 vs. the Spurs in 2014 he opened the game on full blast and they got a huge lead against a vastly superior team and his team slowly died after that.

Or do we think the backpack is broken? There's a point in every playoffs where he goes **** it, I'm just going to do everything. Hasn't happened yet due to the competition (Game 6 vs. Raptors was the closest I guess) but has to break it out now no?

Or do we think the 2nd quarter of Game 2 was it?

[weekend_warrior]

I don't anyone expected the Cavaliers to struggle like this.

I can't recall anyone who did. I know many people thought that the Warriors were going to win handily, but I don't think anyone believed it would happen this way. I think that people knew that the Cavs would struggle to DEFEND the Warriors, but I don't recall anyone expecting this level of pervasive offensive ineptitude from them.

I think the Warriors coasted a lot defensively during this regular season and ended at a 5th (?) best defensive rating. Most of the time they were satisfied with just outscoring their opponents. And they blew a lot of large leads during garbage time, further increasing their def rating. This is why their net rating or SRS doesn't appear exceptional for a 73 win season. This inconsistence and lack of focus made it pretty easy to underrate their defensive capabilities, but locked-in they are really hard to score on.

But yes, it wasn't expected on this level.

[tsherkin]

I think the Warriors coasted a lot defensively during this regular season and ended at a 5th (?) best defensive rating.

Yes, 5th.

[bleeds_purple]

I think the Warriors coasted a lot defensively during this regular season and ended at a 5th (?) best defensive rating. Most of the time they were satisfied with just outscoring their opponents. And they blew a lot of large leads during garbage time, further increasing their def rating. This is why their net rating or SRS doesn't appear exceptional for a 73 win season. This inconsistence and lack of focus made it pretty easy to underrate their defensive capabilities, but locked-in they are really hard to score on.

But yes, it wasn't expected on this level.

That's why I wish they could adjust these season-long team composite stats to exclude garbage time. I watched many games where, just as you said, the Warriors would blow the team out in the first or early second and then just coast and pretty much just play a lazy street ball style for the second half while maintaining a comfortable margin. Certainly that affected all of these statistics.

I am actually looking for Lebron to be better, the whole team to be better in fact. Its disappointing the Love won't be back but if the NBA concussion protocol is anything similar to the NFL's they just did not have enough time to clear him.....

It might actually be the best for them to have Love out. Not that he's a detriment to the team. Just that when he's in it not only moves LeBron to the three but also causes Cleveland to constantly be trying to feed him in the post, particularly on switches. I just don't think that strategy is going to work against the Warriors.

With him out LeBron and Kyrie will likely have a different mind-state where they realize they need to be in attack mode. That is, unless they have already mentally given up on the series. Will be interesting to see how their lineup looks for game 3. If I'm Lue I'm making some wholesale changes and starting Kyrie/JR/RJ/LeBron/Frye. Frye needs to be matched up against Bogut this series, not against Draymond. Its a crucial mistake that I was expecting Lue to fix in game 2. Instead we saw Bogut get to ignore Thompson on defense en route to 4 blocks in the first quarter.

[Colbinii]

With him out LeBron and Kyrie will likely have a different mind-state where they realize they need to be in attack mode. That is, unless they have already mentally given up on the series.

I don't think any team is mentally giving up on a series being down 0-2, while playing both games on the road in a series.