Post#1152 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Feb 17, 2025 5:44 pm
So just putting a few more thoughts down as we come back from the all-star break:
- I would consider OKC the favorite to win the title...but I also want to emphasize that I don't expect to be all the discouraged for them if they get upset. They are still so young!
- I think the way things have come together for Presti a second time after the Durant-Westbrook-Harden trifecta is amazing. I definitely feel like there are a few GMs in the league who continue to run circles around the rest, and he's absolutely one of them.
- All the more because I think arguably Presti's biggest weakness was in picking coaches, but Mark Daigneault was my COY last year and I think I'd have him COY again this year to this point.
- Presti did of course have some luck with Shai becoming what he's become, and man, who'd have thought Shai would be this good? ftr, I consider Jokic to be having probably the best offensive season in history, but I have Shai as my MVP. He's been that valuable. I still think Shai is more dependent on offensive fit than Jokic is by a significant margin, but it's hard for me to see much of an argument that there's a more valuable offensive guard this season than Shai, and Shai is a valuable part of the best-in-world defense the team has.
- Right now Jokic is on pace to win my OPOY for the 5th straight time. He'll be the first to do that if he does.
- Wemby continues to seem like possibly the greatest basketball talent we've ever seen the way he's rising up. Still not a serious challenger for MVP/POY even ignoring the Big 2 of Shai & Joker, but I think he'll probably get there next year.
Going through some other relevant teams hoping to be contenders:
- The Cavs have to be thrilled with how the season has gone but I'm still skeptical about them in the playoffs - a bit like I am with OKC, but more so. But Garland is back to thriving, and Mobley might be my MIP. Has to feel so good for Cleveland to have some legit after nearly two decades of "LeBron or Suck".
- The Celtics are defending champs and so I don't want to take their regular season step-back too seriously. I'd probably still have them as my Eastern playoffs fave. It's going to be really interesting to see how they deal with the 2nd apron going forward. There's absolutely no question in my mind that Tatum is my untradeable franchise player and that Brown's similar mega-contract makes him someone I'm always listening to offers on.
- I do think the Nuggets remain extremely scary even if Murray ain't cooking, and if he is, we may well see them rip off another chip. Not predicting they get to the Finals - picking OKC - but they're certainly the 2nd most likely.
- I gotta give a lot of credit to Leon Rose over on the Knicks. Seems like every year he's making great moves that I personally was so-so on. This year I was all for getting rid of Randle, but was skeptical about KAT. It's turned out great, and the Knicks have a solid core at this point like few other teams in the league. Shout out also to OG, Hart, Mikal, and of course Jalen Brunson who has turned out to be one of the best culture setters in the league.
- Taylor Jenkins deserves a ton of praise over in Memphis, and JJJ has bounced back and then some from last year. I still have a hard time seeing them make the finals. I think we're all hoping to see Ja go full Ja again but within the Grizz new offensive structure, but right now Ja's quiet - which is at least better than him being a loud wannabee gangster.
- Ime Udoka deserves a lot of credit in Houston, but honestly, there's no Top 4 seed in either conference anywhere near as suspect as the Rockets. Match-up makes the fight, but it won't surprise me at all if they get "upset" in the first round. They are of course full of exciting young players led by Sengun and now Amen.
- Pacers aren't suspect in my mind as a #4 seed, but I don't think I'll take them seriously as a contender until I see Hali & Pascal both looking their absolute best together.
- Lakers are a team that seems likely to upset someone in the playoffs, and of course they made THE deal of the season, but I think they're a good off-season away from true contention.
- I like the Butler move for GS a lot. It might blow up in their face, but I agree with their own assessment that they need to make one more big swing to build around Steph, and if LeBron & KD didn't want to come play, Butler might be the best vet to come to the Bay. The odds they break through as a contender again are low, but they are certainly scary.
- The Bucks may be the #5 seed in the East, and may well upset a team in the playoffs, but I really don't see them as a contender, and I think they're in a pretty damn dark place to be honest. The thing that I've been shaking my head around for a while now is that they built their original championship core around Giannis with guys considerably older than Giannis, and then when it came time to re-build with younger guys, they instead traded for Dame. It got Giannis to re-sign, but I think it basically doomed the Bucks to be in a place where only Giannis being unusually loyal will keep him from wanting out, and while Giannis is a grateful foreigner who has really embraced Milwaukee, we'll see how he endures being on mediocre aging teams in the midst of what's left of his prime.
- Clippers are worth a shout out for Norm Powell alone, and I'll be considering Norm very seriously for MIP. The Kawhi-Harden team though feels like a bee that's already used its stinger, as do the Bucks, Suns, Kings, and others.
- Pistons & Magic have to feel good about where they are given their youth, though will be dependent on their stars taking bigger leaps forward to be contenders - Rockets in a similar boat. Incidentally, I'm high on Franz...but low on Paulo, and that makes things exciting but iffy for the Magic.
- Timberwolves, like the Kings a year earlier, feel like a team where everything went right for them one year, and then things came back down to earth. For Minny of course a significant part of the deal is that they traded away KAT for Randle, but while that made them a worse team, I still think they were always going to struggle to match-up well with 4 straight playoff opponents with the Gobert-KAT duo.
- Finally I'll speak to Dallas. Obviously they were almost certainly going to be seen as the trainwreck of the season after the Luka trade no matter what, but AD not even getting through a single game before being lost indefinitely is just a nightmare. I'll be pulling for AD to come back healthy -as I always do - and I think this Mavs team can be quite good when healthy...but I don't see them as likely to ever make the finals with this new core, and that's just a brutal fact that will likely lead to various exits in the not-too-distant future.
I don't expect Harrison to get fired this off-season, though I could see him resigning, but unless things turn up aces, he probably gets fired in the next couple years and then struggles to get any high profile position in basketball ever again. I think he's a man with strengths who is doing his best, but he was also clearly not someone who should have ever been hired directly into the role of GM without working his way up in a front office, and for this I think pretty clearly the blame has to go to Cuban who had deluded himself about many things, but relevant here: a) that he personally didn't need a GM because he personally was a basketball expert, and b) that those he sold the team to would want him being the head basketball man.
I'll reiterate: I personally get seeing Luka as a timebomb whose physical issues and bad habits make him likely to be someone who ages very poorly, and I get believing AD is a better fit with Kyrie, but a) I wouldn't have been considering trading Luka right now unless he wanted out, b) I would see Luka's super-max contract to be a good thing for trade value and would want to wait for it to kick in, and c) the top priority for me in trading Luka would be to milk the negotiation for tons of assets Herschel Walker (or Paul George) style.
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