Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate?

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Who is better?

DWill
61
41%
CP3
86
59%
 
Total votes: 147

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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#121 » by aggo » Mon Nov 29, 2010 5:14 pm

dogrufus wrote:
Kingsforlife wrote:Image
.......... ^
:o


You forgot:

Assist/Turnover Ratio
Paul 4.39 Williams 2.88

True Shooting Percentage
Paul .608
Williams .558

PER
Paul 27.7, leads team by FAR
Williams 21, 2nd on team

Offense Rating
Paul 125
Williams 111

Defense Rating (lower is better)
Paul 97
Williams 107

Win Shares per 48 minutes
Paul .303
Williams .229

Above Average Teammates (by PER)
Paul: West (20.7), Okafor (15.4)
Williams: Millsap (22.8), Jefferson (16.7)

And yet...

Team Winning %:
Paul: .786
Willams: .688

Yep, I'd say the book is pretty closed. I love how Jazz homers consider this an actual debate when there's a plethora of points in Paul's favor and literally 0 points in Williams'.

It'd be like if I, a Knick fan, posted that Amar'e is better than Dwight Howard.

good game

paul > deron

book closed. not even close
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#122 » by Bradford » Mon Nov 29, 2010 6:31 pm

whatever helps you sleep at night.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#123 » by Lionel Messi » Mon Nov 29, 2010 6:33 pm

The book is officially shut. Paul > Deron.

Anyone who says otherwise is a homer.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#124 » by NYK 455 » Mon Nov 29, 2010 6:38 pm

Bradford wrote:whatever helps you sleep at night.


lol, speak for yourself.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#125 » by Bradford » Mon Nov 29, 2010 6:41 pm

Lionel Messi wrote:The book is officially shut. Paul > Deron.

Anyone who says otherwise is a homer.
So Kobe is a Deron homer? And all the GM's in the NBA?

Your theory is flawed buddy.

Deron > Paul

Book Shut.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#126 » by farzi » Mon Nov 29, 2010 9:55 pm

You argument also makes the case that Roy is better than CP3, Durant, Melo, etc. I mean, both Artest and Kobe said he's the hardest to guard, and so you agree, right?
Thank you for all the memories BRoy. You were a class act and brought hope to an entire region for 5 years. You will be missed.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#127 » by Wavy Q » Mon Nov 29, 2010 9:57 pm

also says that Kobe at 32 is the best piece to build your franchise around for the future. At least thats what GM's said.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#128 » by aggo » Mon Nov 29, 2010 10:34 pm

Bradford wrote:whatever helps you sleep at night.

CP3 is better at making his teammates better - fact
CP3 could run any offense in this league - fact
CP3 is doing more with less talented players than dwill is - fact
CP3's offensive rating and TS% crush dwill's - FACT


I mean, i could go on and on and on.

The only thing that dwill might be better at is in a strictly halfcourt offense against a guard oriented team without a true post presence. If utah played any larry brown team for a championship i might pick dwill over cp3. and even then it's close.


FACT: Chris Paul > Deron Williams

book closed.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#129 » by Lionel Messi » Mon Nov 29, 2010 10:46 pm

Jay From LA wrote:also says that Kobe at 32 is the best piece to build your franchise around for the future. At least thats what GM's said.


Why are you questioning Bradford's infallible logic?

Also, I was obviously exaggerating with "everyone", but you don't have much of an argument to back you up Bradford, so resorting to picking certain insignificant points that you can debate is all you have left.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#130 » by erudite23 » Tue Nov 30, 2010 12:29 am

First of all, Bradford is just trolling. He's not really that stupid, and he's obviously just acting like that to piss people off with rock hard ignorance.

Throughout their careers, its been fairly close in every significant stat. In assists it was Deron by .4 in 07, Paul by 1.1 in 08, Paul by .3 in 09 and Paul by .2 in 2010.

Paul won TS% by .2% in 07. Deron won in 08 by 1.9%. Paul won the next two seasons, 2.6% and 1.1%.

Paul beat Deron in scoring by 1.1, 2.3, 3.4 and it came out in a tie last year.

The categories with major differences are TOs, steals and (until recently) rebounds. Paul was a far better rebounder in their first 4 seasons. Last year Deron closed the gap.

Steals is a major sticking point, because it contributes massively to Paul's edge in PER as well as some of the other advanced metrics. Truthfully, there are only a few players in the league that seriously contribute in steals who are actual defensive impact guys. Then there are the handful of guys that pile up the steals while being mediocre--or even poor--defenders. Allen Iverson is the face of this group, though there have been many such players to fit the description down through the ages. There are many and varied opinions on how good each of these players is defensively. What I think we CAN conclude is that Paul's ability to produce steals is not reflected in his ability as a defensive player on the whole. No one but Paul nuthuggers think that CP is even above average defensively, as its plainly obvious that he's not. Yet steals (as well as blocks) as a statistic, and when included in PER, can only be taken as a players contribution as a defender. Since its clear that Paul isn't noticeably better than Deron defensively (and, in my own opinion, isn't anywhere close to him in that regard, but I digress) how does it make sense to include steals as a legitimate statistical measure? It doesn't, really. Any more than it did/does to do it with Allen Iverson, Dwayne Wade, Steve Francis, Stephen Curry, Baron Davis, etc.

Finally, TOs. This is legit. Deron will get careless with the ball at times, and make passes that are a little too risky. He doesn't value possessions quite as dearly as CP does, and he doesn't have quite that tightness in his handle, either. Impossible to argue this one, and the gap is considerable.


So, essentially the stats are pretty close here. Deron has scored slightly less with similar, though slightly less efficiency. Their distribution has been neck and neck, nearly identical with the exception of one season.

The real gap was in rebounding, steals and TOs. I could honestly care less how my PG rebounds in most circumstances. And I'll be honest, I think that much of Paul's defensive rebounding ability comes from the fact that he has no interest in pushing the ball in transition. But whatever. ( I have never been watching a Hornets game and thought "wow, that was an impressive rebound by CP" like I do when I see Westbrook, Kidd, Rondo or any of the other top rebounding PGs. He always gets the loose ball types that you usually see a PG leave up to their big guy as a courtesy. But that's highly unscientific, so I don't expect anyone to take that as anything. ) So if rebounding and gambling in the passing lanes is a big deal, go ahead and take CP. That's where much of his statistical edge came from in advance metrics, particularly PER.

So I acknowledge Paul's statistical superiority. There's no way to do otherwise. I call it a small-to-modest edge, but depending on how you look at it, there's room for exaggeration.

So is there more to it than stats, or is that all? Is it possible that Deron's ability to be the lynchpin of a system that has produced one of the league's best FG% offenses for years running means something? And is it just a matter of circumstance that his offenses are so much better than CP's? Is it a coincidence that the Jazz have had a better FG% and eFG% (despite being much less proficient from the 3pt line) than the Hornets every year since their rookie seasons? And, while its true that the Hornets have limited TOs much better than the Jazz, isn't it funny that the Jazz have been significantly better every.single.season. in offensive rating than the Hornets?

Or is that system? Teammates? Bad management? Riiiight. Maybe there's something to the fact that a lot more of what Deron does doesn't show up on his individual stat sheets as opposed to CP. Maybe CP is in a system that allows him free rein to do whatever he wants with the ball and pile up stats, and in order for him to contribute the most to a contending team he will ultimately have to take a step back and have others help him?

People try to dismiss the head to head matchup. I don't get that. If you wanted to know who's better between Larry and Magic, you watch their 7 NBA Finals matchups. If you wanted to know who's better between Hakeem and DRob, you watched their playoff tilts. How, exactly, is it that Deron Williams owning Chris Paul on the same court at the same time isn't relevant to the argument? They guard each other. They do similar things for their respective teams. And when they do it against each other, Deron Williams looks like he's on another level.


All told, the whole body of evidence together, I think Paul was the slightly better player coming into this season. He has stats on his side, and I'm a bit of a stat guy. The edge there is clear and definitive (though not overwhelming the way that some make it out to be). But Deron has had far more team success. The manifestations of good PG play are more readily apparent in Utah's offense than in NO's. He's won more in the playoffs. And he's crushed CP into the ground when they've met up. So its close but I say Paul has been better.

But as for who I would take right now, its gotta be Deron. He's added to his game and looks like he will be far more durable in the long run. CP has taken a significant step back in his game this year, and there's a good chance his knee won't let him play at a high level past the age of 30. So right now is Paul, but I'll bet anything that by the end of each of their careers, Deron is considered the greater player by a good margin.

(ps, sorry for the length :oops: )
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#131 » by Scoob Seriously » Tue Nov 30, 2010 12:29 am

AggO wrote: fact

Some people really don't know the difference between fact and opinion.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#132 » by Bradford » Tue Nov 30, 2010 12:46 am

AggO wrote:CP3 is better at making his teammates better - fact
CP3 could run any offense in this league - fact
CP3 is doing more with less talented players than dwill is - fact
Wrong on all 3 accounts. Good work.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#133 » by stacey_is_king » Tue Nov 30, 2010 1:09 am

erudite23, all I got from your post is that you think steals are meaningless (which is crazy, it's not like steals hurt your team) and Deron's team has a better offense. What I find ridiculous is that you acknowledge Deron and Paul are very close in production, yet somehow expect us to believe the biggest reason the Jazz have a much better offense is because they have a point guard who's nearly identical in impact to another. How exactly does that make sense?
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#134 » by dogrufus » Tue Nov 30, 2010 1:41 am

erudite23 wrote:
Steals is a major sticking point, because it contributes massively to Paul's edge in PER as well as some of the other advanced metrics. Truthfully, there are only a few players in the league that seriously contribute in steals who are actual defensive impact guys. Then there are the handful of guys that pile up the steals while being mediocre--or even poor--defenders. Allen Iverson is the face of this group, though there have been many such players to fit the description down through the ages. There are many and varied opinions on how good each of these players is defensively. What I think we CAN conclude is that Paul's ability to produce steals is not reflected in his ability as a defensive player on the whole. No one but Paul nuthuggers think that CP is even above average defensively, as its plainly obvious that he's not. Yet steals (as well as blocks) as a statistic, and when included in PER, can only be taken as a players contribution as a defender. Since its clear that Paul isn't noticeably better than Deron defensively (and, in my own opinion, isn't anywhere close to him in that regard, but I digress) how does it make sense to include steals as a legitimate statistical measure? It doesn't, really. Any more than it did/does to do it with Allen Iverson, Dwayne Wade, Steve Francis, Stephen Curry, Baron Davis, etc.


Alright, your post was generally good and well thought out, but it's about time someone spoke up for steals. Steals are one of the most valuable things you can contribute to your team. A steal is pretty much worth two possessions. You end the opponent's possession with no possibility of them scoring, and you in turn get a possession where you will very likely get a very high quality shot. A PG who can get you three more steals a game is better than a PG who will get you three less turnovers.

It's getting to the point where people have gone on so much about how steals are overrated that they are actually now underrated. Yes, there have been some players who gamble for steals too indiscriminately while neglecting good man defense to the point of sometimes hurting the team. But a lot of big steals guys were also some of the best overall defenders at their position. Are you going to tell me that Jordan, prime Artest, or Gary Payton weren't good defenders? Some players have the quickness and smarts to get a lot of steals while also playing good man defense. Forcing turnovers is a huge, huge part of good defense. The way its importance is completely written off on these boards puzzles me.

If Deron is such a better defender, why has Paul had a consistently much better Drtg? Deron's career best mark is 107, which Paul has beat every year but last year (when he wasn't 100%). This year he's at 98. How good is that for a guard? Walt Frazier has a career Drtg of 98. No guard in history has a career Drtg of 97 or better. Deron has an advantage defensively in that he can guard some swingmen decently. But Paul is a better defender at the PG position and helps his team's defense much more.

erudite23 wrote:So is there more to it than stats, or is that all? Is it possible that Deron's ability to be the lynchpin of a system that has produced one of the league's best FG% offenses for years running means something? And is it just a matter of circumstance that his offenses are so much better than CP's? Is it a coincidence that the Jazz have had a better FG% and eFG% (despite being much less proficient from the 3pt line) than the Hornets every year since their rookie seasons? And, while its true that the Hornets have limited TOs much better than the Jazz, isn't it funny that the Jazz have been significantly better every.single.season. in offensive rating than the Hornets?



I love when people engage in this kind of navel-gazing when pondering why one player has more team success than another. Maybe it's because one player's team has significantly more overall talent? MJ lost plenty of playoff series while he was clearly the best player in the league. This season has revealed that the guy the Jazz were calling their backup PF is actually better than anyone Chris Paul has ever played with. The Jazz are a premier organization in this league and have been among the best coached and managed for 20 years. The Hornets have moved to a dead city, have no fan support and sketchy ownership and management.

Deron's offenses have been better because he had two big men better than Chris Paul's best big. Now that he only has one so far this season, the Hornets have the better offense than the Jazz thus far. As for the impact of the individual players, the evidence is overwhelming that Paul is better.

Deron Williams is a great PG and he runs his offense will, with an Ortg of 115 this season and a career high of 118. Paul, on the other hand, is on par with Nash as an offensive PG. His Ortg has been above 120 the past 4 seasons. Twice it has been better than Steve Nash's career high. Paul leads all active players in Ortg. Deron Williams is a great PG and in most eras he'd be the best in the league easily. But Chris Paul right now increases the efficiency of an offense more than any player in the league- more than Kobe, more than LeBron, more than Deron, and it's a cold hard statistical fact.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#135 » by Bradford » Tue Nov 30, 2010 4:12 am

Another loss for Paul, another win for DWill. What's new.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#136 » by farzi » Tue Nov 30, 2010 4:17 am

Not your act that's for sure
Thank you for all the memories BRoy. You were a class act and brought hope to an entire region for 5 years. You will be missed.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#137 » by stacey_is_king » Tue Nov 30, 2010 4:28 am

Bradford wrote:Another loss for Paul, another win for DWill. What's new.

What's your purpose? Your bit makes you look stupid =/ And you're not hurting anyone's feelings by saying Paul's team won and DWill's team lost.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#138 » by NO-KG-AI » Tue Nov 30, 2010 4:53 am

Back to the defense thing, Paul consistently has a better defensive +/- than Deron, by tons, meaning he helps his team more. The Hornets are consistently better on defense, and Paul has never been out of the top 5 in defensive rating on the team, and he's been first more than once.

Deron consistently is at the bottom of the Jazz as one of their worse defenders.

Paul can't guard the 2, and Deron can guard it better, but it's not like he's a good defender at the two, and Paul is a vastly superior defender at the one, even if you try to discount his turnovers.

Great hands on D=bad, lol.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#139 » by carrottop12 » Tue Nov 30, 2010 8:05 am

Do you guys remember when Carlos Boozer led the Jazz in Defensive Rating last year? That was cool, he's a really good defender.
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Re: Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate? 

Post#140 » by Barstool Blues » Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:11 am

Paul is better.

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