RealGM Top 100 List #17

[italianleather]

The whole point about 2011 and perspective is that they wouldn't have been in the position they were in to win if James weren't so good in the first place. If he didn't do what he did against Boston (or Rondo getting hurt) or do what he did against Chicago. If he were 15% worse against Chicago, so not noticeably bad, and Miami loses, what's the reaction then? Instead, he's really stunningly good, puts himself in a position to play more, and struggles, and all anyone wants to talk about is the struggles. I think that's due to a recency/losing bias, and I've been vocal about for all players who I think are subject to that.

Lame.

Excusing Lebron's pedestrain performace in the finals because of his earlier rounds heroics.

[penbeast0]

OK, here’s the rough statistical breakdown for Pettit, Barkley, and Dirk relative to league averages. I am using 5 year peaks loosely determined by PER and team success to pick the years. Pettit’s 5 year peak will be 1957 to 1961 – he never dropped below the 23.6 of his final year but while he was MVP and took his team to the NBA finals in 1956, 61 was the last year for STL as the clear 2nd best team in the league. It does exclude 1956 and 1963 where he led the league in playoff PER. The first group is natural, the second is adjusted to year 2011 numbers, all adjustments are done by simple ratios of league reb-ast-pts-efg/average team multiplied by the players’ per game averages to try to even out pace and relative efficiency.

Bob Pettit Min Reb Ast Pts TS% league efg% W-L
1957 STL 35.1 14.6 1.9 24.7 .494 .380 (34-48)
1958 STL 36.1 17.4 2.2 24.6 .492 .383 (41-31)
1959 STL 39.9 16.4 3.1 29.2 .519 .395 (49-23)
1960 STL 40.2 17.0 3.6 26.1 .510 .410 (46-29)
1961 STL 39.8 20.3 3.4 27.9 .511 .415 (51-28)
(Pettit’s rebounding, assist and scoring went up the next 2 years as the league went into one of its highest pace areas but these were the best STL teams)

1957 adj – 11.0 2.5 28.1 .645 NBA Finals (Celtics)
1958 adj – 11.4 2.7 26.2 .640 NBA Champions
1959 adj – 11.0 3.9 30.6 .654 MVP (lost WCF)
1960 adj – 10.5 3.8 24.6 .619 NBA Finals (Celtics)
1961 adj – 11.9 3.1 24.4 .613 NBA Finals (Celtics)

Charles Barkley had the longest run of these three stars and his peak also lasted 10 solid years of All-Pro play. I have chosen 1989-1993 for his 5 year stretch, before this period, Philly was not a playoff team, after it, Barkley started missing a lot of time due to nagging injuries.

Barkley Min Reb Ast Pts TS% league efg% W-L
1989 PHI 39.1 12.5 4.1 25.8 .653 .489 (46-36)
1990 PHI 39.1 11.5 3.9 25.2 .661 .489 (53-29)
1991 PHI 37.3 10.1 4.2 27.6 .635 .487 (44-38)
1992 PHI 38.4 11.1 4.1 23.1 .612 .487 (35-47)
1993 PHX 37.6 12.2 5.1 25.6 .596 .491 (62-20)

1989 adj – 11.8 3.4 23.5 .665 (lost in 1st rd)
1990 adj – 11.0 3.4 23.4 .673 (lost in 2nd)
1991 adj – 9.7 3.4 25.8 .649 (lost in 2nd)
1992 adj – 10.5 3.6 23.3 .626 (missed playoffs)
1993 adj – 11.7 4.4 24.2 MVP / NBA Finals (Chicago)

Dirk has already played 2 more years than Pettit and shows no sign of slowing down and, like the others, has a nice 10 year peak to compare. I chose the last 5 years so we could get both his MVP and his title year in.

Nowitzki Min Reb Ast Pts TS% league efg% W-L
2007 DAL 36.2 8.9 3.4 24.6 .605 .496 (67-15)
2008 DAL 36.0 8.6 3.5 23.6 .585 .497 (51-31)
2009 DAL 37.7 8.4 2.4 25.9 .564 .500 (50-32)
2010 DAL 37.5 7.7 2.7 25.0 .578 .501 (55-27)
2011 DAL 34.3 7.0 2.6 23.0 .612

2007 adj – 9.0 3.4 24.8 .607 MVP (1st round loss)
2008 adj – 8.5 3.5 23.5 .586 (1st round loss)
2009 adj – 8.4 2.5 25.7 .562 (2nd round loss)
2010 adj – 7.6 2.7 22.8 .575 (1st round loss)
2011 (base) 7.0 2.6 23.0 .612 NBA Champion


2011 numbers – ave reb per team 3394/ave ast per team 1763/ ave pts per team 8163/ .498efg% (.553ts%)
-- since B-R.com has quit publishing TS%, I will use the efg% to get the ratios for adjustment instead – not perfect but anyone wanting to take the time to calculate ave ts% can let me know and I’ll fix it.

[penbeast0]

Lot of bloody work but it does create some rough impressions.

First, Barkley wasn't as dominant a scorer and rebounder as I remember, a bit behind Pettit in both though still amazingly efficient and the best playmaker of the 3. Second, Dirk can't rebound with the others and his efficiency relative to the league is a bit less though that is caused by/made up for by his playing more outside than they did. Finally, Pettit's efficiency relative to his era during his peak (for you Baller24 I used peak rather than career ) was actually pretty great thanks to his ridiculous foul drawing.

Teamwise, Dirk's Dallas team was the most consistent regular season performers with Pettit's Hawks second and Barkley's 76er teams lagging well back. However, when it came to the playoffs, Pettit's Hawks were consistent finalists through his peak (4/5 years with one championship before falling apart as Slater Martin retired and Cliff Hagan became a part timer) while Dirk's teams disappointed (or as JB says, lost with HCA).

In terms of individual statistics (career), the opposite is true. Dirk is a great playoff performer who actually improved his numbers in the playoffs, Barkley stayed pretty steady, Pettit dropped off about 10% though to some extent this is made up for by his stepping up in the giant game 7 win over Russell and the Celtics.

I considered Pettit above Barkley and Dirk for results and defense, this confirms it for me (unlike when I compared Havlicek and Pippen expecting Pippen to dominate).

[drza]

I am absolutely appalled that, because I haven't had time to post during the day (not unusual) and I missed my normal late-night day 1 post my first post in this thread is my vote post. And not only that, the vote is so tight that I could be one of the deciding votes. That is WAY too much pressure considering that I still haven't completely hashed out how I feel about the LeBron vs Dirk question. I have voted Dirk in each of the last 2 threads...IIRC I may have been the first Dirk vote in this project...and I've read all of the posts from Mystic and ElGee and others weighing in on this. But it's still an incredibly difficult choice to me, so let me try to work my way through this in the half hour before voting closes.

Longevity: Looking at my voting record so far, I think I can say that I don't dwell on longevity as much as many do in this project. I voted Russell before Kareem, I voted Magic before Kareem, and I voted KG before Malone. I'm learning that, beyond a reasonable longevity threshold, I would prefer the higher peak over the longevity. As such, Mystic's argument of 11 years over 7 with the caveat that LeBron's 2-year peak is higher...for me, it's not as convincing as it likely is for those that value longevity more.

Value: Here is a good part of the meat of the debate, for me. Before this postseason I was comfortable that LeBron had been the better player for probably the last 5 years, and I didn't particularly question that. Then, after the postseason, it certainly appeared that for at least this season Dirk had caught him in team value. But a lot of it certainly has to be tied into the question of "fit", as we discussed in the RPoY 2011 thread...the Heat definitely had more high-end talent with Wade and Bosh, but the Mavs had a team with both depth and excellent fit around Dirk. I mean, it was like perfectly crafted for him. It REALLY worked with him...on the other hand, it REALLY didn't work without him.

Argh. I just don't have the time to explore this the way I want to right now....I'd hoped to spend some time on whether Dirk's off the ball style really is just inherently more valuable than LeBron's ball-dominant style to a wider variety of teams, or whether Dirk just has had a series of teams built around his strengths and the one time that he ran into a similar redundancy of his strengths/weaknesses was the '04 squad with the Antawns and a lot of offense with no defense that bombed despite good on-paper talent. I think this issue could have a lot of important ramifications about player value, and how we make judgments, but unfortunately I missed my chance to explore it here.

5 minutes left, gotta make my vote. I still think LeBron had the better peak, despite what happened in the Finals. But LeBron also has bigger question marks than Dirk. Dirk has longevity, but I don't think he's ever been the best player in the league whereas I think LeBron has multiple times. Dangit! This freakin sucks, man. I've voted Dirk twice in a row, and at the end of the day I might still go back to that view, but at this moment with some of the thoughts that I was leading with I'm feeling more LeBron sympathy. Plus, I'm pretty sure LeBron is losing right now and, because I'm in doubt, I tend to prefer the vote that keeps the two closer. So, feeling very unsure about this, but:

V: LeBron James
N: Scottie Pippen

[penbeast0]

Looks like both the vote and the nomination are tied. I will switch my nomination from Gilmore to Havlicek but will leave the voting open until 48 hours after the last one was posted to break the LeBron/Dirk tie (or sudden death after that) or if more Nash nominations appear.

VOTE

(9) LeBron – Doctor MJ, FJS, snakebites, penbeast0, ElGee, Baller 24, Gongxi, ronnymac2, drza
(9) Dirk – Dr Mufasa, An Unbiased Fan, mysticbb, Black Feet, DavidStern, TMACFORMVP, Sedale Threatt, Laimbeer, Fencer reregistered
Pettit – JordansBulls, JayFromLA, cpower, RoyceDa59
Barkley – therealbig3, Fatal9
Baylor – Pancakes3

NOMINATION

(7) Nash – Doctor MJ, ElGee, mysticbb, Black Feet, DavidStern, Baller 24, fatal9
(8) Havlicek – Dr Mufasa, pancakes3. cpower, TMACFORMVP, Sedale Threatt, RoyceDa59, Fencer reregistered, penbeast0
Stockton – FJS, JayFromLA, An Unbiased Fan
Isiah – JordansBulls, Laimbeer, ronnymac2
Gilmore – Gongxi
Pippen – therealbig3, drza

Not on panel:

Pistol Pete Vescey

[ThaRegul8r]

Vote: Dirk Nowitzki

[shawngoat23]

I'm a bit late for this thread.

For the record, I would have voted for LeBron James and nominated John Havlicek. But I'm not sold on either, so I have no problem with ThaRegul8r casting the deciding tiebreaking vote.

[lorak]

94: Malone smokes him, and the Jazz in general have no problems scoring

Rodman guarded Malone that year, not Robinson! Coach decision and it was bad decision.

96: Malone is held in check, but still outplays Robinson

Outplays? They had different roles and Malone as scorer failed - 49.3 TS%

BTW, is it really fair that Robinson's value is judged mainly based on how he performed against two of top 12 players of all time at the peak of their careers? I mean, nobody is arguing that he was better than Hakeem or Malone... I would rather like to see comparison Barkley vs Robinson, for example in playoffs against the same opponent or against each other they played:

Barkley 1994 vs Rockets: 23.4 PPG, 53.2 TS%
Barkley 1995 vs Rockets: 22.3 PPG, 53.6 TS%
(Robinson 1995 vs Rockets: 23.8 PPG, 55.3 TS%)

Barkley 1993 vs Spurs: 26.2 PPG, 53.8 TS%
(Robinson 1993 vs Suns: 25.7 PPG, 55.2 TS%)

Barkley 1996 vs Spurs: 25.5 PPG, 56.2 TS%
(Robinson 1996 vs Suns: 30.0 PPG, 62.0 TS%)

[higuys]

Vote: Lebron James

Nominate: Jason Kidd

[Gongxi]

I'm a bit late for this thread.

For the record, I would have voted for LeBron James and nominated John Havlicek. But I'm not sold on either, so I have no problem with ThaRegul8r casting the deciding tiebreaking vote.

I think you just re-tied it.

[Laimbeer]

Looks like both the vote and the nomination are tied. I will switch my nomination from Gilmore to Havlicek but will leave the voting open until 48 hours after the last one was posted to break the LeBron/Dirk tie (or sudden death after that) or if more Nash nominations appear.

VOTE

(9) LeBron – Doctor MJ, FJS, snakebites, penbeast0, ElGee, Baller 24, Gongxi, ronnymac2, drza
(9) Dirk – Dr Mufasa, An Unbiased Fan, mysticbb, Black Feet, DavidStern, TMACFORMVP, Sedale Threatt, Laimbeer, Fencer reregistered
Pettit – JordansBulls, JayFromLA, cpower, RoyceDa59
Barkley – therealbig3, Fatal9
Baylor – Pancakes3

NOMINATION

(7) Nash – Doctor MJ, ElGee, mysticbb, Black Feet, DavidStern, Baller 24, fatal9
(8) Havlicek – Dr Mufasa, pancakes3. cpower, TMACFORMVP, Sedale Threatt, RoyceDa59, Fencer reregistered, penbeast0
Stockton – FJS, JayFromLA, An Unbiased Fan
Isiah – JordansBulls, Laimbeer, ronnymac2
Gilmore – Gongxi
Pippen – therealbig3, drza

Not on panel:

Pistol Pete Vescey

Not really sure where we're at with this, but if there's the opportunity to change votes to settle a tie at this point, my vote remains Dirk but my nomination switches to Hondo. I really thought Nash had sewn it up, he's a pretty bad choice at this point.

Vote: Dirk
Nominate: Hondo

[JordansBulls]

If the vote matters between Dirk and Lebron, I'll say Dirk for now after winning the title and beating a team with 2 of the top 4 players in the league despite having 3 guys out and having a lower SRS rating, worst offensive and defensive rating, etc.

Vote: Dirk
Nominate: John Havlicek

[pancakes3]

i'd switch my baylor vote to dirk if we're having a run-off b/w the two.

[Fencer reregistered]

If Hondo wins, I think I'll start nominating Isiah. The leader of the team that defeated three reasonable candidates for Greatest Team Ever (albeit not in their peak years) -- at that repeated as champions in an era when that was still regarded as difficult -- deserves to be in the discussion soon.

Besides, discussing Isiah inevitably leads to discussing Dumars, and I suspect him of being underrated, so I'd like to see what other guys think of him.

[penbeast0]

OK, looks like Dirk and Hondo it is

[mysticbb]

Looks to me as if IRV would have helped ...

[penbeast0]

Two years from now you start and run the project and use IRV to your hearts delight

[Laimbeer]

Two years from now you start and run the project and use IRV to your hearts delight

The old saying "be careful what you wish for" comes to mind.