The Lebron Thread

[SideshowBob]

Not much to judge on Lebron from last night. Didn't see the entire game, but looked like most of his buckets were coming in transition and off of putbacks. He's having a great rebounding year.

[Mo26]

so he's lost a significant amount of athleticism and yet is still easily the best player in the league?

smh. just goes to show you how weak the current the current crop of stars are compared to past era's....

[Rebuilding Year]

Most players are known to score more in transition when their athleticism declines.

[IG2]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q67kIcfQeto&feature=g-u-u&context=G275df78FUAAAAAAAIAA[/youtube]

^ This was uploaded on YT today. A 41/9/6 game from LeBron from the 08-09 season. Smoki2323 has a lot of good stuff on LeBron from his Cleveland days. Anyway, watch the video and try not to get too depressed. Besides jumpers, there's not a single thing current LeBron can do that he's doing in this video.

[Doctor MJ]

so he's lost a significant amount of athleticism and yet is still easily the best player in the league?

smh. just goes to show you how weak the current the current crop of stars are compared to past era's....

No it doesn't. The ebb and flow of superstars coming into the league has very little influence on the overall quality of play. When a player racks up huge numbers, he's doing it relative to a league level that really hasn't changed a whole lot for quite a while. LeBron's easily the best player in the league because he's one of the 3 most freakish physical talents we've ever seen in basketball history (along with Wilt & Shaq), and the only he reason he won't end up the GOAT (presuming he won't) is that he's got some mental hangups.

[SideshowBob]

Caught the game from the second quarter onward. Didn't see too much attacking tonight, looked like he was taking the jumpers. 7 turnovers. Terrible, he's really got to figure out what's going on there. If that was 3 turnovers, that's 4 more shot attempts, and 4 or 5 more points.

I'll try to catch the whole thing tomorrow

[IG2]

Watched from late 3rd qtr onwards. Nothing new with LeBron. Looked great with the jumper, awful when he put it on the floor - which is where the turnovers are coming from. He's simply too slow in the half-court, and you add his penchant for getting cute with the pass, that number is going to remain high.

On a different note, just how far away from 100% is Wade? He has no explosiveness out there. Especially finishing-wise. He's been reduced to throwing up prayers....it's not pretty to watch. I don't know how much he's helping Miami in his current state.

And the more I watch the Heat, the more I wonder how a team with THAT many defensive holes can win it all. Their big men situation is hopeless. And don't even get me started on their over-helping that leads to wide open 3's all the time.

[jas1221]

lbj was more better when he was with the cavz

[SideshowBob]

Lebron just lacks the ability to take over games anymore. I'm starting to doubt that he's even as good as he was pre-09. Uber efficiency means nothing if you don't have enough confidence in your shot to produce baskets when your team needs them most, be it the fourth quarter OR the second quarter.

I know everyone's taking notice of how all of his points come within the flow of the game now, but that's exactly the issue. It almost seems like he can ONLY score within the flow of the game. His ability to create something out of nothing is just greatly diminished, and I don't think one offseason of working on post fundamentals is going to change that.

[IG2]

I know everyone's taking notice of how all of his points come within the flow of the game now, but that's exactly the issue. It almost seems like he can ONLY score within the flow of the game. His ability to create something out of nothing is just greatly diminished, and I don't think one offseason of working on post fundamentals is going to change that.

Great points here. I talked about this all of last season. LeBron has to play "within himself" now. His normal approach to the game is ALL he can do. There's no higher gear. He's just stuck in 1 mode. He can never go, "**** it! I'm taking over now". I mean, what would he do? Take more 20 footers? Unless you're uber-skilled in the mold of MJ, Kobe or Bird, a player that is NOT a threat to penetrate in the half-court has a serious flaw in his game. LeBron's current game simply lacks a certain....creativity. His playmaking is....limited. What you said, "ability to create something out of nothing", is a GREAT way to put it. He's entirely dependent on the flow of the game. When the game gets ugly, he doesn't have a fall-back option. He continues to do the SAME thing or simply becomes passive. It all stems from his VERY limited mobility in the half-court. A perimeter player that cannot dribble his way to greener pastures in the half-court has issues.

I'm starting to doubt that he's even as good as he was pre-09.

I would take '06 and '08 LeBron over his current self without thinking twice. Simply a more dynamic player.

[SideshowBob]

It just irks me that most people have convinced themselves that this is what Lebron was always like. No one seems to acknowledge what he ACTUALLY did in his older days. There's people that are convinced that he's playing the best basketball of his career, because of the stats

[SideshowBob]

IG2, I wanted to ask what your thoughts on the 2010 Celtics series were. What do you think went on there with him? It seems that most people I argue with saw different things than I did (as is typically the case with Lebron), and since we seem to share views on him, I wanted to hear your thoughts.

[IG2]

No one seems to acknowledge what he ACTUALLY did in his older days.

It's incredible, isn't it? Today, people can watch an entire game where LeBron takes and makes nothing but jumpers, pretty much never drives in the half-court, and they'll still come out talking about how "athletic" he is. That is STILL the predominant talk when it comes to LeBron, can you believe it? ANY description of him to this day will begin with "he's just so big and fast". People really are that imperceptive.

There's people that are convinced that he's playing the best basketball of his career, because of the stats

And we both know how ridiculous that is. I just @ the best-ball-of-his-career talk. These guys have no clue what they are talking about.

IG2, I wanted to ask what your thoughts on the 2010 Celtics series were. What do you think went on there with him?

He played a weird half in Game 5, that's all. There's nothing 'off' about him the rest of the series. I have watched those games numerous times. LeBron's as emotionally engaged in them as ever. I couldn't be more emphatic when I say this, he was 100% into it. Mean-mugging after big plays, bitching to the refs after every call, intense demeanor and all-out effort - you cannot fake that. I have 0 issues with LeBron for his play in that series. In light of The Decision, revisionist history & Dan Gilbert's sour grapes have completely colored people's perception of what went on, but fans are free to go back and re-watch those games. Outside of 1 half of basketball in Game 5, LeBron couldn't have been more....normal.

The 2011 Finals on the other hand.....WOW, I don't know WTF that was. He just completely shut down. Single-handedly cost Miami the championship. If he had even bothered to compete in Games 3-6(not even play well, just compete), Miami would have comfortably won that series.

[SideshowBob]

It's incredible, isn't it? Today, people can watch an entire game where LeBron takes and makes nothing but jumpers, pretty much never drives in the half-court, and they'll still come out talking about how "athletic" he is. That is STILL the predominant talk when it comes to LeBron, can you believe it? ANY description of him to this day will begin with "he's just so big and fast". People really are that imperceptive.

It's true. Exactly as you said it. "He's so big and strong when he comes at you. What can you do?" It's remarkable. All these announcers have been watching him for AGES, and yet that's all they see, even now.

And we both know how ridiculous that is. I just @ the best-ball-of-his-career talk. These guys have no clue what they are talking about.

I think it's overwhelming to think that he played better, largely because of the stats. IMO 95% of basketball watchers never really realized how good he was before, and because his stats are at a GOAT level right now, to acknowledge that he was better before is to consider that he was really a level above everybody else. This isn't something people want to accept or consider with a guy who still hasn't won championship yet, be it the truth or not.

He played a weird half in Game 5, that's all. There's nothing 'off' about him the rest of the series. I have watched those games numerous times. LeBron's as emotionally engaged in them as ever. I couldn't be more emphatic when I say this, he was 100% into it. Mean-mugging after big plays, bitching to the refs after every call, intense demeanor and all-out effort - you cannot fake that. I have 0 issues with LeBron for his play in that series. In light of The Decision, revisionist history & Dan Gilbert's sour grapes have completely colored people's perception of what went on, but fans are free to go back and re-watch those games. Outside of 1 half of basketball in Game 5, LeBron couldn't have been more....normal.

There we go. I had the same thought during the series, and the media narrative hasn't changed my mind about it one bit. The only issue I do see is the shooting. I had noticed something off in late 2010, just after the all-star break. At the time, I assumed he was a bit in shock with the big Z trade, despite the fact that he was back within a few weeks.

Then came Brown resting James for the last 5 or so games of the regular season, and it really got me worried. The word was that Lebron had some minor lingering issues, and that since the #1 seed was locked up, there would be no need to play. This didn't sound like something Lebron would do, especially considering one of those games was against Orlando. Still, I passed it off.

Then comes Game 4 of the Chicago series and we see the "elbow issue" pop up (most only remember the game 5 left handed free throw). At this point, I'm worried, and in the back of my head I'm convinced that the season would be ending soon. They get through game 5, with Lebron playing far below his standards for playing against such a mediocre defensive team.

Then comes the Celtics series, and we all know what happened there. As I said, I shared your views on the matter, until last year I saw this. If you haven't seen it already, I'd encourage you to take a look at it and consider it. It would certainly explain why, despite the effort, Games 2, 4 and 6 were a bit "subpar", for lack of a better term.

The 2011 Finals on the other hand.....WOW, I don't know WTF that was. He just completely shut down. Single-handedly cost Miami the championship. If he had even bothered to compete in Games 3-6(not even play well, just compete), Miami would have comfortably won that series.

Yeah, this had me bewildered, and I still cannot think of a reasoning for it. Most people see the 17/7/7 and the fourth quarter shut downs, but not many are acknowledging how bad he was defensively. He was literally the best defensive player on the team through the first three rounds, where he did his best to cover up Miami's holes, played excellent on his man, defended the PnR, and what not. Then in the Finals, he's an absolute non-factor. I mean, he probably could've put up 15/5/5, but had he played up to standard on D, they would've taken that series.

I don't know if you're familiar with ElGee's EV stats, but they're all based off of watching the gametape, and he acknowledges this dropoff on defense.

http://www.backpicks.com/2011/06/08/lebrons-passive-aggressiveness-and-his-big-d-funk/
http://www.backpicks.com/2011/06/13/2011-nba-finals-recap-by-expected-value/

As for an explanation, it really beats me. My best guess is that he was completely exhausted playing 44 minutes a game, especially after carrying the load in the regular season as well.

[IG2]

I think it's overwhelming to think that he played better, largely because of the stats. IMO 95% of basketball watchers never really realized how good he was before, and because his stats are at a GOAT level right now, to acknowledge that he was better before is to consider that he was really a level above everybody else. This isn't something people want to accept or consider with a guy who still hasn't won championship yet, be it the truth or not.

This is all true. To add to it, remember, fans also believe NOTHING's changed. To them, LeBron's still this godly athlete who can now shoot with the best of 'em, post up( ), and has even limited those evil 3pters he used to jack up. In their minds, LeBron has simply built upon his already-ridiculous gifts - that's why they are so willing to believe he's better than ever, because they don't think he's lost anything. And they'll simply point to the stats for proof, when fact is, the only reason for the spike in LeBron's efficiency this season is Miami's pace. LeBron's played his entire career on bottom 10 teams pace-wise. Often bottom 5 in Cleveland. Miami's currently in the Top 5, so it's resulted in a ton of never-before-available easy transition baskets for him. Thus the ridiculous FG%. Would anybody consider this LeBron's best season if he was shooting his normal 49-51%? Hell no. And that's what he would have been shooting if Miami wasn't pushing the ball and forcing so many turnovers.

They get through game 5, with Lebron playing far below his standards for playing against such a mediocre defensive team.

I remember Chicago really blitzing LeBron on pick n rolls that Game 5. He had an off night, yes, but I would give a good deal of credit to Chicago's D for that. LeBron also wasn't willing to shoot jumpers in that game, which, let's face it, is an annoyance he's always had. He sometimes just doesn't feeling like taking them.

Then comes the Celtics series, and we all know what happened there. As I said, I shared your views on the matter, until last year I saw this. If you haven't seen it already, I'd encourage you to take a look at it and consider it. It would certainly explain why, despite the effort, Games 2, 4 and 6 were a bit "subpar", for lack of a better term.

I have to admit, I don't see his sub-par games in that series having to do with the elbow. Through the first round against Chicago and the first 3 games of the Boston series, he was shooting the ball better than ever. Doesn't seem like there was an issue at all. I chalk LeBron's off games in that series to Boston's terrific D, and maybe some of it to the confidence issues he tends to have in his jumper every now and then. He definitely wasn't very willing to take jumpers in Game 2 & 4, but that's just LeBron. He still has those moments.

Yeah, this had me bewildered, and I still cannot think of a reasoning for it. Most people see the 17/7/7 and the fourth quarter shut downs, but not many are acknowledging how bad he was defensively. He was literally the best defensive player on the team through the first three rounds, where he did his best to cover up Miami's holes, played excellent on his man, defended the PnR, and what not. Then in the Finals, he's an absolute non-factor. I mean, he probably could've put up 15/5/5, but had he played up to standard on D, they would've taken that series.

His D was atrocious in the Finals, no getting past it. But for whatever reason, I find his offensive approach far more unforgivable. A superstar running away from the ball for an ENTIRE series is just....bizarre and inexcusable.

As for an explanation, it really beats me. My best guess is that he was completely exhausted playing 44 minutes a game, especially after carrying the load in the regular season as well.

I don't know what to think, to be honest. I will say this though, the reason why it's difficult for me to buy the 'choke' argument is, why then? I mean, why not against Boston or Chicago? Those series' were equally pressure-packed, if not more so, but LeBron's approach was just fine in them. I mean, sure, he had his moments of passiveness, but overall, he was still approaching the game like a superstar - getting shots up, playmaking for others and so on. In the Finals on the other hand, he seemed petrified of the ball. Couldn't wait to pass it away to the nearest teammate.

[SideshowBob]

This is all true. To add to it, remember, fans also believe NOTHING's changed. To them, LeBron's still this godly athlete who can now shoot with the best of 'em, post up( ), and has even limited those evil 3pters he used to jack up. In their minds, LeBron has simply built upon his already-ridiculous gifts - that's why they are so willing to believe he's better than ever, because they don't think he's lost anything. And they'll simply point to the stats for proof, when fact is, the only reason for the spike in LeBron's efficiency this season is Miami's pace. LeBron's played his entire career on bottom 10 teams pace-wise. Often bottom 5 in Cleveland. Miami's currently in the Top 5, so it's resulted in a ton of never-before-available easy transition baskets for him. Thus the ridiculous FG%. Would anybody consider this LeBron's best season if he was shooting his normal 49-51%? Hell no. And that's what he would have been shooting if Miami wasn't pushing the ball and forcing so many turnovers.

Can't say much here, agree with everything you've stated. I don't have sufficient knowledge of APM and RAPM stats to say anything conclusive, but from what I can tell, they might paint a better picture of whats going on, as they aren't boxscore specific metrics.

I remember Chicago really blitzing LeBron on pick n rolls that Game 5. He had an off night, yes, but I would give a good deal of credit to Chicago's D for that. LeBron also wasn't willing to shoot jumpers in that game, which, let's face it, is an annoyance he's always had. He sometimes just doesn't feeling like taking them.

I don't know what his problem is with the jumpers. I've watched him for years and there's times where I'm thinking SHOOT SHOOT SHOOT, and he'll just pass it off. Don't get it.

I have to admit, I don't see his sub-par games in that series having to do with the elbow. Through the first round against Chicago and the first 3 games of the Boston series, he was shooting the ball better than ever. Doesn't seem like there was an issue at all. I chalk LeBron's off games in that series to Boston's terrific D, and maybe some of it to the confidence issues he tends to have in his jumper every now and then. He definitely wasn't very willing to take jumpers in Game 2 & 4, but that's just LeBron. He still has those moments.

Yeah, he was avoiding the jumpshots in Games 2 & 4, which was a bit strange to me, seeing how well it worked for him in game 3. Though the looks he was getting in game 3 were pretty fantastic I might say. That felt like the only game in the series Cleveland ran anything that resembled an NBA offense.

His D was atrocious in the Finals, no getting past it. But for whatever reason, I find his offensive approach far more unforgivable. A superstar running away from the ball for an ENTIRE series is just....bizarre and inexcusable.

Definitely inexcusable, just can't understand what was going. Especially considering he was the best player on the floor in game 1.

I don't know what to think, to be honest. I will say this though, the reason why it's difficult for me to buy the 'choke' argument is, why then? I mean, why not against Boston or Chicago? Those series' were equally pressure-packed, if not more so, but LeBron's approach was just fine in them. I mean, sure, he had his moments of passiveness, but overall, he was still approaching the game like a superstar - getting shots up, playmaking for others and so on. In the Finals on the other hand, he seemed petrified of the ball. Couldn't wait to pass it away to the nearest teammate.

And that's what's kept me from falling for the "choker" narrative as well. Why not earlier? Chicago and Boston were superior defensive teams, with Boston being the one that had given him nightmares in the past. Yet, he comes up in the biggest moments in both those series in 8 our of 10 games. Why wouldn't he have choked earlier if that was the issue? Especially in the Chicago series, where Wade didn't even have it going.

EDIT: It's late, so I probably won't be able to respond again till tomorrow

[Rerisen]

I don't know what to think, to be honest. I will say this though, the reason why it's difficult for me to buy the 'choke' argument is, why then? I mean, why not against Boston or Chicago?

I think Boston and Chicago played very good defense on James and actually got him to take a lot of the shots they wanted as defenses, he just made them! His mid-range was on, and he was hitting miraculous bad shot three pointers that buried both those teams late in a couple games. (19-41, .464 on 3pt vs Bos/Chi).

Great players can do that, Kobe, Wade, James, they can make a lot of tough shots.

But vs Dallas his J stopped falling, the bad shots stopped falling, and he really looked confused about how to function at that point. Miami as a team had been migrating out to more and more threes ever since the end of the Boston series, seduced into it by their lucky success. But when it stopped working, instead of trying to force attacking in the half court, he just ceded the offense to Wade, who had mostly been playing like a beast to that point. But Wade could not hold up that pace, and neither was Miami as a thin team, good enough with LeBron in ultra deferment mode.

Could he have imposed his will in the half court only by attacking the paint? Would it have failed due to the lost athleticism, ball handling and attacking skills you guys drone on about? Who knows, but he should have tried. Opting out of the action altogether, letting it be 'Wade's turn' works in the regular season, but not in the Finals against the other best team in the league.

[IG2]

I think Boston and Chicago played very good defense on James and actually got him to take a lot of the shots they wanted as defenses, he just made them! His mid-range was on, and he was hitting miraculous bad shot three pointers that buried both those teams late in a couple games. (19-41, .464 on 3pt vs Bos/Chi).

His mid-range game was on all of last season, dude. LeBron didn't do anything from the perimeter against Boston and Chicago that he didn't do all of last season. Or against your team this past Sunday. He isn't "hot", that's just who he is.

But vs Dallas his J stopped falling

The thing is, he wasn't even shooting enough in the Finals to be deemed cold. He went from averaging 19 FGA+9 FTA/g in the first 3 rounds to 15 FGA+ 3 FTA/g in the Finals, which is a staggering decline. LeBron was STARTING OFF every game passive, not becoming passive after he missed a few shots, so I just don't buy the theory of him not knowing what to do once he was cold. Fact is, LeBron didn't wait until he missed shots to start running away from the ball - that was his approach irregardless of whether his shot was going in or not.

[SideshowBob]

I think Boston and Chicago played very good defense on James and actually got him to take a lot of the shots they wanted as defenses, he just made them! His mid-range was on, and he was hitting miraculous bad shot three pointers that buried both those teams late in a couple games. (19-41, .464 on 3pt vs Bos/Chi).

Define being "on." In the regular season, he shot 45% from 10-23 feet. Against Boston, he shot 36% (4/11) from 10-15 and 27.6% (8/29) from 16-23 feet. That's not really what I consider "on." Against Chicago, he shot 50% (3/6) from 10-15 feet, and 38.9% (14/36) from 16-23 feet. Again, I don't see how that's considered "on." Granted, I'll give you that he'd be expected to shoot a lower percentage against good defenses, but if anything that number is still going to improve the next time Miami plays either Boston or Chicago.

I'll give you the three pointers, he was certainly hitting those way above his head, but not mid-range

But vs Dallas his J stopped falling, the bad shots stopped falling, and he really looked confused about how to function at that point. Miami as a team had been migrating out to more and more threes ever since the end of the Boston series, seduced into it by their lucky success. But when it stopped working, instead of trying to force attacking in the half court, he just ceded the offense to Wade, who had mostly been playing like a beast to that point. But Wade could not hold up that pace, and neither was Miami as a thin team, good enough with LeBron in ultra deferment mode.

Could he have imposed his will in the half court only by attacking the paint? Would it have failed due to the lost athleticism, ball handling and attacking skills you guys drone on about? Who knows, but he should have tried. Opting out of the action altogether, letting it be 'Wade's turn' works in the regular season, but not in the Finals against the other best team in the league.

Well here's my other theory, and it paints Lebron in a really negative light.

The word during the games was that the other Heat players wanted to see the ball in Wade's hands in the Finals, and why wouldn't they, considering what he had done in 2006. Even in game 1, when Lebron had it going from pretty much everywhere, they turned to Wade to close the game out, despite Lebron's heroics in the past 2 rounds.

I think Lebron's ego may have got the better of him. He shut down to prove a point. It's not that he wanted the glory, but he wanted to show them what would happen if he wasn't involved. That's why he stopped putting any effort in defensively, that's why he refused to shoot the ball. There's no excuse for a guy that's gone 500 or so odd games without scoring less than 10 points to have an 8 points in the Finals. It happened because he came into the game choosing to do so.

If that is what really happened, then it shows a HUGE lack of maturity on his part, and he really willingly cost that team the championship.

[SideshowBob]

Okay, here's a quick telling number.

By using synergy's "transition" and "off cut" numbers for Lebron, and by incorporating those into the "At Rim" numbers from the Hoopdata gamelogs, I've found that INCLUDING post ups, Lebron gets 2.38 attempts per game at the rim in the halfcourt. He converts at a 68% clip, and I'd assume that if we knew how many of those "post plays" were concluded with field goals at the basket, then we could really get an idea of how many times he's attacking the basket off the dribble (likely about once per game) and how well he is able to finish.

Does anyone have these numbers from past years? Namely 2009 and 2010.