ElGee wrote:Yes, I'm advocating for 68 West. If you haven't checked out my research on how injuries affect title odds, you should do so. In short, missing time barely matters. If you're worried about extreme outliers like "they won't make the PS on a crappy team," that's like saying "91 MJ won't win a title on the 12 Bobcats...so I don't want 91 MJ." Crappy teams aren't winning titles anyway, so with West or without him for 39 games it doesn't matter...
@Doc -- look at 1968 West more closely. Definitely the season to champion as his peak IMO. Just a ridiculous offensive season.Here are West's In/Out runs:
1963 West In (54g) 5.5 SRS
1963 West Out (26g) -2.1 SRS
1967 West In (65g) 1.4 SRS
1967 West Out (16g) -5.4 SRS
1968 West In (51g) 8.1 SRS
1968 West Out (31g) -0.5 SRS
1969 West In (61g) 5.4 SRS
1969 West Out (21g) 0.7 SRS
1970 West In (90g) 3.8 SRS *including PS
1970 West Out (8g) -8.6 SRS
1970 West In w Baylor In (36g) 2.1 SRS *including PS
1970 West In w Baylor and Wilt In (29g) 3.9 SRS
1971 West In (69g) 5.1 SRS
1971 West Out (13g) -7.2 SRS
1971 West Out (25g) -1.9 SRS *including PS
1973 West In (69g) 9.8 SRS
1973 West Out (13g) -1.0 SRS
This is a guy knocking on the door of Nash, Walton, LeBron, Thurmond, super-value to his team. There's a lot that looks impressive there, consistently. To me, I'm left trying to untangle the following:
-how did West's teams perform at their best?
-how did West's teams perform without him (if available)
-how did West's teams look ITO of roster, health and coaching?
-how did West's individual statistics look in conjunction with that information?
As you can see, the 1968 team was RIDICULOUS with West in the lineup. This was with someone not regarded as a coaching genius, with good lineup continuity around him, and an offensive slant (eg Clark, Goodrich, Baylor) and it may have, based on plausible explanations, produced an offensive level that was rarely matched until the 3-point era. This is huge huge stuff.
Then you look at what West did individually. He set a career high in FG% that he'd never come close to (a weird drop in FT% that year). This led to a career and league-best 59% TS%, 9.2% better than league average! In the postseason, he averaged a career-best 59.6% TS% on 31-5.4-.5.5 and a career-best 52.7% FG%.
In the Finals against Boston (-4.9 est DRtg), he had 35 in G2 to steal serve from the Celtics. 33 in G3, 38 in a G4 win to even the series. The Lakers thought an 8-day layoff before game 1 cost them the game, and then lost G5 in Boston in OT 120-117...West had 35 more in the game. West sprained his ankle at the end of G4 and it caught up to him in G6, and without an effective West (8-19 FG), the Lakers were blown out in the first half.
To me, ALL the evidence is pointing to 1968 basically.
ElGee, would like to see your thoughts on my breakdown of all the players you mentioned vs. Kobe. I may yet decide to switch to Erving or Oscar if someone convinces me.