RealGM Top 100 List #13

[Texas Chuck]

The one-legged Fade:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFYxLN5yvwg[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdNjSe_Wxus[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfewOvwxMR0[/youtube]

[PaulieWal]

I'm a fan of Dirk's, but don't see how its tied when Kobe is better offensively, and defensively than him. This again goes back to the Kobe vs Bird comparison where I'm not sure how Bird was better either.

The more I think about KG and Dirk the more I see Dirk as being just as good and I am not sure there's a gap between the two. After reading this project I have moved KG up in my rankings as well. I have Kobe ahead of both, however. Dirk's offensive versatility and the ability to single-handedly shift defenses is quite underrated. Offensively between Kobe and Dirk, I am not sure who to give the edge to. I don't know if Kobe is better than Dirk offensively, but he was a much better defender in his prime.

[An Unbiased Fan]

People are doubting Bryant's defense. They seem to believe all those all-defensive team that are voted on by the coaches came from nowhere, which seems pretty silly. There's a reason he got that defensive rep in the first place.

I think you're misunderstanding a position you don't hold. Kobe was great at defense during the first 3-peat. His defensive rep and awards during that time are well earned. However, once Shaq was run out of town and Kobe didn't have to share the ball any more, he coasted on defense so he had more energy for offense.

I would argue that his defensive awards since that time are largely based on rep and not merited by reality.

Why would coaches care about reputation? They gameplan around players on a nightly basis, and watch more game film than any of us. Why hasn't Wade gotten "rep" votes? Why haven't other great defenders gotten "rep" votes?

The All-D teams are 2nd most reliable award out there behind All-NBA teams. Where are all these 'rep" votes? http://www.basketball-reference.com/awa ... fense.html

[PaulieWal]

People are doubting Bryant's defense. They seem to believe all those all-defensive team that are voted on by the coaches came from nowhere, which seems pretty silly. There's a reason he got that defensive rep in the first place.

I think you're misunderstanding a position you don't hold. Kobe was great at defense during the first 3-peat. His defensive rep and awards during that time are well earned. However, once Shaq was run out of town and Kobe didn't have to share the ball any more, he coasted on defense so he had more energy for offense.

I would argue that his defensive awards since that time are largely based on rep and not merited by reality.

Why would coaches care about reputation? They gameplan around players on a nightly basis, and watch more game film than any of us. Why hasn't Wade gotten "rep" votes? Why haven't other great defenders gotten "rep" votes?

The All-D teams are 2nd most liable award out there behind All-NBA teams. Where are all these 'rep" votes? http://www.basketball-reference.com/awa ... fense.html

Kobe definitely got "rep votes" in 11 and 12 whether you admit it or not. He had no business being voted-in those two years at the very least.

[Notanoob]

Nevermind that Synergy defensive stats have backed up Kobe's defensive reputation consistently over the years.

Do you have access to these then? I'd really appreciate seeing some of them since I don't.

[colts18]

James Harden got votes for All-D team this year. That should tell you what you need to know about the award. It's the NBA version of the Gold Glove.

From 2005-2007, when Nash was on the court, his team had a 106.7 D rating. When Kobe was on the court his teams had a 108.8 D rating. If Kobe was so great defensively, why did his team finish last in defense during his prime? Why was his teams worse defensively than the Mike D'Antoni Suns?

[Owly]

I don't like to ring count but

Nor do many others. Phew that saved some time.

Also Moses' 3 mvps weren't just by accident, i know a lot of posters don't like to use accolades, they are not everything but i don't see how its wise to just throw them out the window.

Again lets not just dismiss 3 mvps and FMVP because we feel like it.

Having MVPs is a positive indicator. But ...
(a) As with all accolades it's a reflection of perceptions of performance not a measure of performance. This doesn't make it bad and it's a nice supporting argument but not a core strand.
(b) It's known to be vulnerable to narrative voting.
(c) Not all MVPs are equal some are, perhaps narrowly, won at a time where there are no one or two absolute standout dominant peaking players to compete with (arguably spans like '69-'70, '77-'82, '05-'08 and other single years) not that each of the winners weren't great (they certainly are by normal standards) but they probably weren't beating an elite-legendary peak at their apex (which doens't mean they they themselves couldn't be dominant, for instance '77 Jabbar). Anyway I'm drifting off focus here the point is, MVPs aren't created equal. MVP shares sort of help within eras (though the total amount doled out can keep changing so it's far from perfect).

So for '79 you might have to argue why Moses was actually better than Jabbar, rather than it being a case of, "Well Jabbar's clearly significantly worse than last year, and we didn't give it to him then, so we can't possibly give it him this year even if he is the league's best player. Plus his team wasn't great and he's won it enough. Hey Moses broke out, and his team exceeded what we thought they'd do, and he was better than any other [non-KAJ] player and he played big minutes." Which is how a Jabbar or metrics advocate might suggest was what went on there. Then in '82 it was a narrow MVP over a pre-peak Bird (though fwiw, imo he probably was the best player that year, though narrowly, over Erving).

For the MVP share thing (and as noted before you'd have to check how many are given out per year, so this comes with massive caveats) Karl Malone (8th, 4.296); Kobe (11th, 4.206); David Robinson (12th, 3.123) and now Kevin Durant (13th, 3.005) are now ahead of him (14th, 2.873) with other candidates for this spot not too far behind.

This isn't a Moses is bad thing, it's a tell us why he's better.

I mean he did sweep Kareem and Magic in the finals, Karl Malone had 2 chances at a ring an failed both times and miserably at that.

Personally? He was playing 1 on two and he won? Seriously though conflating team and individual achievements (and hiding Erving, Cheeks, Jones, Toney etc; ignoring LA injuriesO) isn't really sound reasoning for individual rankings.

Besides which I (and I think others) have a problem with measures which penalise prior good performance (finals record, record with HCA, whether performance/metric Y drops in the playoffs). It just doesn't make sense to say that LeBron would have been better not destroying Detroit in '07 and it doesn't make sense to say players "missed chances" because they got to the finals. And it doesn't mean if their play was subpar it can't be criticized, but it should be done in context.

Karl Malone and Drob were great don't get me wrong i just think its a little ridiculous they are being argued over Kobe, Dr J and Moses. DROB should be going more in the 18-21 range imo, as opposed to 13-15.

Because ...

I mean you don't have to justify your non-votes, if you're just letting people know where you are then that's fine, but if you're looking to inform and/or persuade, then "player x belongs in this range (imo)" doesn't do that.


I tried to post last night but it got lost (I think I typed it up and tried to post in the duplicate thread 13, which by the time I finished had been deleted). Anyway the gist was I'm leaning K Malone/Robinson (trying to decided whether Admirals peak advantage is enough to justify the large longevity gap), but that it's pretty wide open (I think I mentioned Dirk, Kobe, Pettit, West maybe Barkley -though not ahead of Karl M -, Moses, Erving). Now I think of it (and given longevity stuff and "Malone was fortunate to play with Stockton" theories) is Stockton nearing consideration for anyone yet (5th in career WS (207.7), only Malone not already in ahead of him; 1st in career WARP (302; with WARP era starting from 1979-80 season iirc)).

[Texas Chuck]

James Harden got votes for All-D team this year. That should tell you what you need to know about the award. It's the NBA version of the Gold Glove.

From 2005-2007, when Nash was on the court, his team had a 106.7 D rating. When Kobe was on the court his teams had a 108.8 D rating. If Kobe was so great defensively, why did his team finish last in defense during his prime? Why was his teams worse defensively than the Mike D'Antoni Suns?

When guys start implying Nash is a better defender than Kobe its probably time to move on, no?I get why Colts18 is using Nash here since he's promoting Nash for this spot, but it really illustrates that its time to talk about something else.

The guys who think Kobe's D is overrated aren't going to change their minds based on All-D teams or the breaking down of one of Kobe's games and the guys convinced he was playing all-time great defense throughout his career aren't going to be convinced based on statistical evidence to the contrary.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Nevermind that Synergy defensive stats have backed up Kobe's defensive reputation consistently over the years.

Do you have access to these then? I'd really appreciate seeing some of them since I don't.

Unfortunately no. I've seen them posted over the years, usually around the end of the season. I think shutupandjam has access though.

James Harden got votes for All-D team this year. That should tell you what you need to know about the award. It's the NBA version of the Gold Glove.

From 2005-2007, when Nash was on the court, his team had a 106.7 D rating. When Kobe was on the court his teams had a 108.8 D rating. If Kobe was so great defensively, why did his team finish last in defense during his prime? Why was his teams worse defensively than the Mike D'Antoni Suns?

Harden did get throwaway votes, but notice he didn't come close to making any team. Also, you basically showed how unreliable individual DRtg numbers are.

And I already told you why LA was last in 2005, they're called injuries. Kobe had planter, played hurt all year, and Odom was banged up too. Notice...Kobe didn't make All-D in 2005. Where was his "rep" vote? In 2006, LA bounced back to #15 on defense. Was that due to Kobe getting healthy....or the greatness of Smush, Vlad, Luke, Cook, Odom, Kwame?

[PaulieWal]

James Harden got votes for All-D team this year. That should tell you what you need to know about the award. It's the NBA version of the Gold Glove.

From 2005-2007, when Nash was on the court, his team had a 106.7 D rating. When Kobe was on the court his teams had a 108.8 D rating. If Kobe was so great defensively, why did his team finish last in defense during his prime? Why was his teams worse defensively than the Mike D'Antoni Suns?

When guys start implying Nash is a better defender than Kobe its probably time to move on, no?I get why Colts18 is using Nash here since he's promoting Nash for this spot, but it really illustrates that its time to talk about something else.

The guys who think Kobe's D is overrated aren't going to change their minds based on All-D teams or the breaking down of one of Kobe's games and the guys convinced he was playing all-time great defense throughout his career aren't going to be convinced based on statistical evidence to the contrary.

How about a more rational discourse? He was a good defender in his prime, even elite. Then he became a good defender when he wanted to be (kind of like LeBron from last season), and for the last few seasons has been a one-way player. He clearly did not deserve some of the all-defense accolades, especially the ones in 11 and 12. AUF brought up Wade but Wade was clearly much the better defender of the two in 11 and 12 and made Miami's defense elite with James and Bosh.

I am seeing more and more Kobe voters now say that the all-defense teams were legit, maybe as some sort of push back because he still hasn't been voted in?

[Notanoob]

How about a more rational discourse? He was a good defender in his prime, even elite. Then he became a good defender when he wanted to be (kind of like LeBron from last season), and for the last few seasons has been a one-way player. He clearly did not deserve some of the all-defense accolades, especially the ones in 11 and 12.

This is roughly how I always felt about it. Kobe stopped playing defense on a nightly basis when Shaq was traded, then picked it up again in 08, but continued to decline as he aged. Prime Kobe could play very good defense but didn't always choose to. I don't believe that the DRAPM lines up with that, but I am not really convinced by it suggesting that he never played impact defense.

[semi-sentient]

How about a more rational discourse? He was a good defender in his prime, even elite. Then he became a good defender when he wanted to be (kind of like LeBron from last season), and for the last few seasons has been a one-way player. He clearly did not deserve some of the all-defense accolades, especially the ones in 11 and 12.

This sums up my thoughts on Kobe's defense.

[An Unbiased Fan]

How about a more rational discourse? He was a good defender in his prime, even elite. Then he became a good defender when he wanted to be (kind of like LeBron from last season). He clearly did not deserve some of the all-defense accolades, especially the ones in 11 and 12. AUF brought up Wade but Wade was clearly much the better defender of the two in 11 and 12 and made Miami's defense elite with James and Bosh.

I am seeing more and more Kobe voters now say that the all-defense teams were legit, maybe as some sort of push back because he still hasn't been voted in?

1) I keep seeing people use "Kobe voters" as if posters who voted for Kobe since #9 haven't been voting for others throughout this project or something. Not sure why this is constantly implied.

2) Kobe's synergy stats in 2011/12 were good, why was his All-D not deserved? And before you bring up RAPM, remember that Wade is about the same there.

[semi-sentient]

I'm not really sure what the stats say (RAPM, Synergy, or otherwise), but I personally thought his defense was awful in 2012. I recall there being a thread where I posted something to the effect of "I hope Kobe makes 1st Team All-Defense just to piss people off" ... and sure enough, he did.

I thought Metta's defense was terrible as well, but certain "advanced" stats suggest that he was pretty awesome which makes me want to avoid them altogether.

[Reservoirdawgs]

He's being ignored by the more seasoned, less biased posters, but he's influencing others and still has a vote.

I don't see it being any different than the pro-Kobe people who are influencing others and have a vote. And those people have admitted that they are highly invested in the rankings and had the agenda of Kobe being in the Top 10,. When they didn't get their way, they started whining, complaining, and making accusations in different threads which have caused some people to be tentative about continuing discussion because they don't want to deal with the immature wrath. It's unfortunate that A SELECT FEW came into the project with the wrong intentions, but the most that can be done is to ignore the trolls. These people don't have as much power as you all think they do.

[Notanoob]

I'll take a stab at Dirk vs. Chuck.

Dir Nowitzki 15-year sample (1141 games, 41645 minutes):
PER: 23.6
TS%: 58.3 (approximately 16 FGA/game)
eFG%: 51.6
TRB%: 12.8
AST%: 13.3
TOV%: 8.6
ORtg: 116.9

Charles Barkley 15-year sample (1053 games, 38710 minutes)
PER: 24.5
TS%: 60.7 (approximately 15 FGA/game)
eFG%: 55.3
TRB%: 18.3
AST%: 17.7
TOV%: 14.9
ORtg: 118.8

Hmm...I honestly don't have an argument for Dirk over Chuck here. Chuck is certainly the better scorer and his TRB% is just unreal. The other thing that surprised me was that Barkley had a 17.7 AST%. I'm too young to have seen Philadelphia Barkley, but my memory of Barkley on his last legs on the Suns and then Rockets was that he was not a great passer. Clearly that was incorrect. His TOV% is pretty high, but when he does everything else right it is hard to fault him for just that one area.

What if we look at the postseason?

Dirk Nowitzki (135 games, 5544 minutes):
PER: 23.8
TS%: 57.1
eFG%: 48.4
TRB%: 13.8
AST%: 11.5
TOV%: 9
ORtg: 116.9

Charles Barkley (110 games, 4441 minutes):
PER: 24.4
TS%: 59.6
eFG%: 54.4
TRB%: 18.1
AST%: 17.1
TOV%: 13
ORtg: 118.3

Again...showing the numbers out of context, I can't make an argument for Dirk over Chuck. Dirk has some great stats but as far as offense is concerned, Barkley is the better player. Honestly, it's a VERY short list of people who are better offensively than Barkley, particularly in his prime.

Since I have argued for Dirk for the #12 (now #13) ranking, I would lean on Dirk's superior defense and something I've hesitated spending too much time on for most players - attitude issues. For defense, Dirk is clearly the better player. Barkley just didn't give a damn on defense, something he has admitted himself, something his coaches and teammates have pointed out, and something that is readily apparent when you watch the games. Now, the question was whether Dirk's superiority on defense trumps Barkley's superiority on offense. To be quite honest - I don't know. Unfortunately we don't have RAPM data to compare DRAPM and overall RAPM for Barkley and Dirk and I'm not comfortable with my own analysis of Barkley's defense since I was nine years old when he last played more than 70 games (1995-96 season). My assumption is that Dirk's better defense is larger than the gap between the offense for the two players, but I can't prove it.

However, when bringing up Barkley I would point to attitude issues as a negative. I know that penbeast has already mentioned some of Barkley's past issues so I won't go as far into it, but I would say it's a problem when you have a player getting in fights with fans, throwing them through windows, and spitting on fans. Reading the Dream Team book by Jack McCollough is really interesting - even though Barkley was one of the best players in the world, the coaches were VERY hesitant about including him simply because of his well-known attitude issues and aloofness. That really says a lot to me that when coming up with the best players in the US to represent the Dream Team it wasn't his ability but his attitude that made him a near-miss.

With Dirk, you don't have any of that. Barkley is certainly the better offensive player, but Dirk is the player I would feel more comfortable with on my team. My assumption is that Dirk's defensive edge is higher than the offensive edge, but I can't prove it. I feel he's a better teammate who won't be a headache to deal with. I'm certainly willing to be swayed...researching Barkley continues to amaze me at what an offensive powerhouse he was.

I appreciate the effort, but I'm really more interested in a peak to peak comparison. I have trouble figuring which year to use for some guys. Was Dirk's peak 2011? 2007? How about Chuck? I could use the advise of someone who watched and could tell me with certainty- I don't just want to pick the year he had the best WS/48 or something because I'm not sure.

The RAPM numbers for Charles have him as a +6.16 on offense but a -2.64 on defense in 99, and Chuck was seriously reduced as a player by then. Does anyone have some idea of how we could extrapolate backwards this sort of information?

[Quotatious]

Okay, so I'll go ahead and vote for Dirk Werner Nowitzki.

I'm actually surprised (pretty sure Chuck feels the same way) that I voted for KG over Dirk, but at this point, I think Nowitzki's case is as good as anyone's. He actually plays BETTER in the playoffs than in the regular season, when you look at his career numbers (at least as good), which has to count for something, especially considering how difficult his competition was in the 2000s Western conference. His supporting casts were good, but not great, and he was always the main focal point of opposing gameplans, yet he was able to handle it extremely well (outside of a few bad series, but who didn't have a bad playoff series in his career?). His scoring average goes up in the postseason (22.5 to 25.6), on basically the same efficiency, about 58% TS, as does his rebounding (8.1 to 10.1). I truly believe that he's probably one of the 10 best playoff performers in NBA history. He looks pretty good in RAPM, and to me, the most valuable thing that it indicates is the fact that his defense was more or less a positive for almost his entire career. It means that he basically didn't have any weaknesses. He's not particularly great in a lot of aspects (unlike KG), but he's definitely an elite scorer and overall offensive player, too (not a great passer, but takes outstanding care of the ball and makes simple, fundamentally sound passes, doesn't risk turning the ball over).

I admit that it came down to Kobe vs Dirk for me, and with Nowitzki's longevity not being far off Bryant's at this point, and him apparently being a better teammate, better for team chemistry, I'm going with Dirk in a close decision.

[E-Balla]

How about a more rational discourse? He was a good defender in his prime, even elite. Then he became a good defender when he wanted to be (kind of like LeBron from last season), and for the last few seasons has been a one-way player. He clearly did not deserve some of the all-defense accolades, especially the ones in 11 and 12.

This is roughly how I always felt about it. Kobe stopped playing defense on a nightly basis when Shaq was traded, then picked it up again in 08, but continued to decline as he aged. Prime Kobe could play very good defense but didn't always choose to. I don't believe that the DRAPM lines up with that, but I am not really convinced by it suggesting that he never played impact defense.

This is where I'm at too. 2000-04 Kobe was an elite defender, 2005-2007 Kobe was below average mainly because of a lack of effort (and he could turn it on when he wanted too), and 2008-2010 Kobe was elite again. He probably deserved only 8 All D teams but are we seriously focusing more heavily on the defense he played in 3 seasons (or 6 counting 2011-2013) especially when he wasn't contending and in some cases was old?

I don't see any way Kobe from 2000-2010 is not an all D caliber player on a contender. Every one of those seasons he played great D in he was contending and all of those seasons he played bad was when he wasn't contending and had super weak rosters around him.

[Owly]

I'd take Chuck over Karl and Dirk, considering that we're talking about offensive big men. While Chuck was certainly a negative on defense, his offensive advantage over both of those guys is enormous. I can't imagine that Chuck was so bad on defense that it covered the gap between their offense. We're talking about a guy who volume scored 28.3ppg on 66.5TS%! And he wasn't just some isolation scorer, he was a great passer out of double teams, and unlike Malone, he kept scoring in the playoffs.

I'll take a stab at Dirk vs. Chuck.

Dir Nowitzki 15-year sample (1141 games, 41645 minutes):
PER: 23.6
TS%: 58.3 (approximately 16 FGA/game)
eFG%: 51.6
TRB%: 12.8
AST%: 13.3
TOV%: 8.6
ORtg: 116.9

Charles Barkley 15-year sample (1053 games, 38710 minutes)
PER: 24.5
TS%: 60.7 (approximately 15 FGA/game)
eFG%: 55.3
TRB%: 18.3
AST%: 17.7
TOV%: 14.9
ORtg: 118.8

Hmm...I honestly don't have an argument for Dirk over Chuck here. Chuck is certainly the better scorer and his TRB% is just unreal. The other thing that surprised me was that Barkley had a 17.7 AST%. I'm too young to have seen Philadelphia Barkley, but my memory of Barkley on his last legs on the Suns and then Rockets was that he was not a great passer. Clearly that was incorrect. His TOV% is pretty high, but when he does everything else right it is hard to fault him for just that one area.

What if we look at the postseason?

Dirk Nowitzki (135 games, 5544 minutes):
PER: 23.8
TS%: 57.1
eFG%: 48.4
TRB%: 13.8
AST%: 11.5
TOV%: 9
ORtg: 116.9

Charles Barkley (110 games, 4441 minutes):
PER: 24.4
TS%: 59.6
eFG%: 54.4
TRB%: 18.1
AST%: 17.1
TOV%: 13
ORtg: 118.3

Again...showing the numbers out of context, I can't make an argument for Dirk over Chuck. Dirk has some great stats but as far as offense is concerned, Barkley is the better player. Honestly, it's a VERY short list of people who are better offensively than Barkley, particularly in his prime.

Since I have argued for Dirk for the #12 (now #13) ranking, I would lean on Dirk's superior defense and something I've hesitated spending too much time on for most players - attitude issues. For defense, Dirk is clearly the better player. Barkley just didn't give a damn on defense, something he has admitted himself, something his coaches and teammates have pointed out, and something that is readily apparent when you watch the games. Now, the question was whether Dirk's superiority on defense trumps Barkley's superiority on offense. To be quite honest - I don't know. Unfortunately we don't have RAPM data to compare DRAPM and overall RAPM for Barkley and Dirk and I'm not comfortable with my own analysis of Barkley's defense since I was nine years old when he last played more than 70 games (1995-96 season). My assumption is that Dirk's better defense is larger than the gap between the offense for the two players, but I can't prove it.

However, when bringing up Barkley I would point to attitude issues as a negative. I know that penbeast has already mentioned some of Barkley's past issues so I won't go as far into it, but I would say it's a problem when you have a player getting in fights with fans, throwing them through windows, and spitting on fans. Reading the Dream Team book by Jack McCollough is really interesting - even though Barkley was one of the best players in the world, the coaches were VERY hesitant about including him simply because of his well-known attitude issues and aloofness. That really says a lot to me that when coming up with the best players in the US to represent the Dream Team it wasn't his ability but his attitude that made him a near-miss.

With Dirk, you don't have any of that. Barkley is certainly the better offensive player, but Dirk is the player I would feel more comfortable with on my team. My assumption is that Dirk's defensive edge is higher than the offensive edge, but I can't prove it. I feel he's a better teammate who won't be a headache to deal with. I'm certainly willing to be swayed...researching Barkley continues to amaze me at what an offensive powerhouse he was.

I think some of those numbers might be skewed (superficially) in Barkley's favour weren't league average Ortgs and TS% generally higher during his career (obviously it changes year to year).

Also Dirk's career playoff numbers took quite a hit from a seemingly abysmal performance this year, does anyone know what happened there (SA capable of locking in on him? Too many minutes late in season and in playoffs/wearing down? Sample size? Quality of opponents? Spurs ability to throw good and different defenders at him - Splitter, Duncan, Diaw?). And does or should that affect how we look at him at all (the argument for no: 8 seed versus 1 seed; they wouldn't have been there without him, they shouldn't have been there in the West on SRS; he was almost 36 at that point, the series doesn't matter as the Mavs were never going to win it this year; and basically look at everything else he's done in his career. For yes: He played and played poorly, it happened, factor it in. Don't overweight it but include it.). I missed this at the time and just picked it up because I was surprised Nowitzki's playoff numbers were worse than Barkley's because Nowtizki has been somewhat of a playoff metrics legend. Also I think the original post has Nowitzki's career playoff PER wrong (24.3 not 23.6).

[Basketballefan]

I need someone to explain what case Dirk has over Dr J. I feel as if people like to take Dirk over 2-way players despite him being average defensively. I think the argument can be made that Dr j was better on offense as well as defense. Prime Dirk was an efficient 23-27 ppg scorer in his prime which is good but i feel that people like think he was somehow on Kd or Barkley's level when it comes to efficient scoring which simply isnt true.