All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread

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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#121 » by E-Balla » Sat Apr 18, 2015 10:27 pm

Quotatious wrote:
ardee wrote:Man I can't believe Kawhi is getting mentioned here.

Agreed.
ardee wrote:Simple question.

If you replaced Blake or DeMarcus with Kawhi, do you think the Clippers or Kings would get better?

Or better yet - would the Thunder finish the season with a better record if you replaced Westbrook with Leonard? IMO they wouldn't even win 35 games, while Westbrook on the Spurs, as bad of a fit as it seems, probably makes them even stronger than they actually are.

Yeah their defense was still performing in the games Kawhi missed and there's no way you can convince me Westbrook would lead an offense worse than OKC's with a better supporting cast.

I do think Kawhi in place of Blake would make the Clippers better though. Blake decided he was a SF this year and regressed slightly because he ignored his inside game.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#122 » by ardee » Sat Apr 18, 2015 10:43 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
ardee wrote:Man I can't believe Kawhi is getting mentioned here.

Simple question.

If you replaced Blake or DeMarcus with Kawhi, do you think the Clippers or Kings would get better?



Yes.


Based on what?

What could Kawhi offer a team like Sacramento when you subtract the rim protection, rebounding and dependable volume scoring that Boogie gives them?
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#123 » by Dr Spaceman » Sat Apr 18, 2015 11:06 pm

ardee wrote:Based on what?

What could Kawhi offer a team like Sacramento when you subtract the rim protection, rebounding and dependable volume scoring that Boogie gives them?


GOAT perimeter defense, and a competent pick and roll ball handler and post threat. Offensively there's redundancy with Gay, I'll give you that. This isn't 2014 anymore, though, Kawhi is a great scorer who can isolate just fine and run an offense. He's a competent passer too- something the Kings don't have any of right now. If your image of him is still someone who can't create of himself or others, then you've missed the latest stretch of Spurs basketball. He's progressed a ton.

He also comes with none of the baggage and attitude problems of DeMarcus.

E-Balla wrote:Yeah their defense was still performing in the games Kawhi missed


Did you read the last page?

SideshowBob wrote:
Leonard OUT | No Control (18 G, 9-9)

-0.1 SRS, +5.0 Offense, +4.3 Defense

Spoiler:
110.9 ORTG, 110.2 DRTG, +0.8 Adjusted Net



Their defense fell off by 9.0 DRTG points. Nine!!!
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#124 » by SideshowBob » Sun Apr 19, 2015 12:12 am

2015 Los Angeles Clippers In/Out

I've also added Paul's numbers in each of these splits.

Spoiler:
Adjusted for HCA/SOS. Paul and Jordan played 82 G. Reddick and Barnes missed a handful, so those are the "control" factors. Note that some of the OUT samples are small

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Barnes, Reddick IN (Control) (72 G, 50-22)

+7.6 SRS, +7.8 Offense, -0.3 Defense

Spoiler:
113.4 ORTG, 105.4 DRTG, +8.1 Adjusted Net

Paul:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

MPG    PTS    AST    STL    USG    TO%    TS%    GmSc    ORTG
34.6   18.5   10.2   2.0    23.3  .131   .593    18.9    126.1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Crawford, Griffin OUT | Control (4 G, 2-2)

+0.2 SRS, +2.3 Offense, +4.2 Defense

Spoiler:
108.7 ORTG, 112.2 DRTG, -1.9 Adjusted Net

Paul:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

MPG    PTS    AST    STL    USG    TO%    TS%    GmSc    ORTG
32.7   15.0   10.5   2.5    24.3  .253   .565    14.1    103.8

------------------------------

Crawford IN | Griffin OUT | Control (8 G, 6-2)

+13.4 SRS, +6.9 Offense, -6.8 Defense

Spoiler:
111.0 ORTG, 100.2 DRTG, +13.7 Adjusted Net

Paul:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

MPG    PTS    AST    STL    USG    TO%    TS%    GmSc    ORTG
37.6   21.0   12.4   1.1    24.2  .139   .589    20.3    124.0

------------------------------

Griffin IN | Crawford OUT | Control (11 G, 8-3)

+10.2 SRS, +9.1 Offense, -1.2 Defense

Spoiler:
115.1 ORTG, 103.6 DRTG, +10.3 Adjusted Net

Paul:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

MPG    PTS    AST    STL    USG    TO%    TS%    GmSc    ORTG
34.7   22.5   11.4   2.5    24.5  .108   .653    24.1    140.8

------------------------------

Crawford, Griffin IN | Control (49 G, 34-14)

+6.6 SRS, +8.1 Offense, +0.6 Defense

Spoiler:
113.8 ORTG, 106.2 DRTG, +7.5 Adjusted Net

Paul:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

MPG    PTS    AST    STL    USG    TO%    TS%    GmSc    ORTG
34.3   17.6   9.6    1.9    22.8  .125   .580    17.9    124.9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#125 » by SideshowBob » Sun Apr 19, 2015 12:30 am

I've also added Paul's numbers in each of the splits.
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Re: Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#126 » by ardee » Sun Apr 19, 2015 1:58 am

SideshowBob wrote:I've also added Paul's numbers in each of the splits.


Give us your thoughts on this Leonard issue?

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Re: Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#127 » by SideshowBob » Sun Apr 19, 2015 2:18 am

ardee wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:I've also added Paul's numbers in each of the splits.


Give us your thoughts on this Leonard issue?

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app


I would include him in your HM group, Top 10ish but I'd hear cases for any of those other guys over him, save Irving (who I think has clear defensive issues). Blake's regressed a bit defensively and E-Balla nailed his offensive issues this year. Boogie I admit I just haven't watched enough of so I'll avoid statements there. Aldridge has been Aldridge despite the thumb. Leonard's the most balanced 2-way guy out of these.

They all fall between +3 and +4 and I'd probably lean on the lower end for Leonard. Like I said, top 10ish, not in the top 5 discussion for POY IMO.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#128 » by Asianiac_24 » Sun Apr 19, 2015 4:47 am

1. Curry
2. Harden
3. Davis
4. LeBron
5. Westbrook
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Re: Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#129 » by ardee » Sun Apr 19, 2015 5:08 am

SideshowBob wrote:
ardee wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:I've also added Paul's numbers in each of the splits.


Give us your thoughts on this Leonard issue?

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app


I would include him in your HM group, Top 10ish but I'd hear cases for any of those other guys over him, save Irving (who I think has clear defensive issues). Blake's regressed a bit defensively and E-Balla nailed his offensive issues this year. Boogie I admit I just haven't watched enough of so I'll avoid statements there. Aldridge has been Aldridge despite the thumb. Leonard's the most balanced 2-way guy out of these.

They all fall between +3 and +4 and I'd probably lean on the lower end for Leonard. Like I said, top 10ish, not in the top 5 discussion for POY IMO.


I actually was going to put him in like an HHM group.

My problem with it is that he's been pretty awesome in the last two months, a legitimate offensive star (20 ppg on 62% TS) to add to his defensive impact, but the season is six months long.

If he can put together a whole season of that next year he'll certainly be a lock for top 10.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#130 » by ardee » Mon Apr 20, 2015 5:47 am

Paulllllll.

Wow.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#131 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Apr 20, 2015 6:57 pm

ardee wrote:Man I can't believe Kawhi is getting mentioned here.

Simple question.

If you replaced Blake or DeMarcus with Kawhi, do you think the Clippers or Kings would get better?


So, first let me object to the "simple question" perspective. It's a good thought experiment to ask how Kawhi would do on those teams, but you also have to ask how the other guys would do on the Spurs, and there's an argument that the latter is the more important question given that it's how a guy can do on a great team that best indicates his ability to win titles.

What I keep going back to with Kawhi skeptics is that there's nothing magical to the math that puts Kawhi as a superstar-type impactor: This is what you get when you have a DPOY level defender who is also the first option on a great offense. We rarely actually see it happen, but when we do, it's a really big deal.

Griffin at his best has an argument as a Top 5 player so Kawhi > Griffin is obviously nothing like a given, but clearly there's a pretty huge gap on defense there.

Cousins is just a tough guy to really peg at this point. The way he was playing at the beginning of the year was really something, but he's never had a full year playing anything like that, and there's plenty of reason to think that that's not a coincidence - that his mental hangups mean that it just doesn't take much for him to go down a bad road focusing on the negative. Were I the Kings I'd obviously be all-in on Cousins, max deal & everything, because he's by far the best thing they have going, but in comparison to other obvious max players, there's actually quite a lot to be concerned about with Cousins.

Back to your actual question:

The Clippers had the best offense in the league this year despite Griffin missing time and then playing <100% for more time, and even with Griffin we've yet to see any evidence that that kicks the offense up to a whole different GOAT-ish level. Meanwhile their defense is suffering. I think you could make a great case that on a team with Paul & DeAndre, Kawhi is the better fit.

The Kings? They have a 4-man core, 3 of which are primarily in this league for their scoring ability and were drafted with the expectation that they would be #1 option. While the two non-Cousins ones are much weaker than Cousins - which makes it just bizarre that the Kings built the way they did - yeah, you do have to ask whether adding a DPOY level player who doesn't need to score to be effective would let the team FINALLY win 30 games.

But in each case, the answer is debatable. The bigger concern I have is ignoring the fact that Kawhi seems remarkably well suited to being the Man in the healthy, contending Spurs environment.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#132 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:32 pm

ftr once more:

kWh's not in my Top 5. To me that's clearly some combo of Curry/Harden/Paul/LeBron/Davis. It's just that I think he has a very solid case as Top 10 now, and with a huge playoff run he could get into my Top 5.

Also, am I the only one who when I type in "Kawhi" it autocorrects to kWh? I feel like he should get a nickname based on that. "kilowatt-hour" is too unwieldy, but other possibilities:

The KiloWatt (insert KillahWatt or whatever other spelling you want)
The Joule (because kWh is a unit of Energy and Joule is the standard unit of Energy) (obviously could spell it the Jewel)
The MegaJoule (because 1 kWh = 3.6 10^6 J = 3.6 megajoules)
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#133 » by lorak » Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:52 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Cousins is just a tough guy to really peg at this point. The way he was playing at the beginning of the year was really something, but he's never had a full year playing anything like that, and there's plenty of reason to think that that's not a coincidence - that his mental hangups mean that it just doesn't take much for him to go down a bad road focusing on the negative.


Maybe that was the case before this season, but '15 is perfect example how much coach and good organization matters. Cousins looked like MVP under Malone, but then he missed several games, Kings lost most of them, front office panicked, fired Malone and everything collapsed. No Demarcus fault in that. And I wonder how guys like Kawhi would look in such situation (or eternal question: what if KG would start career in San Antonio and KG in Minnesota?).
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#134 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:16 pm

lorak wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Cousins is just a tough guy to really peg at this point. The way he was playing at the beginning of the year was really something, but he's never had a full year playing anything like that, and there's plenty of reason to think that that's not a coincidence - that his mental hangups mean that it just doesn't take much for him to go down a bad road focusing on the negative.


Maybe that was the case before this season, but '15 is perfect example how much coach and good organization matters. Cousins looked like MVP under Malone, but then he missed several games, Kings lost most of them, front office panicked, fired Malone and everything collapsed. No Demarcus fault in that. And I wonder how guys like Kawhi would look in such situation (or eternal question: what if KG would start career in San Antonio and KG in Minnesota?).


I'll say the opposite though too because I think that's what the Kings show: When you're front office is off-the-charts stupid, really bad things can happen.

And those bad things aren't just the system here. Cousins was a guy who should have been drafted #1, but he wasn't even seriously considered because the dude was obviously psychologically fragile. To fire the first coach your psychologically fragile star ever really connected with mid-season without consulting him, is a recipe for him to act out, and we clearly saw some of that behavior as a result.

So, while Cousins supporters have every right to blame management, at the same time there's no cause for speculating about any and all other stars and wonder if they'd respond just like Cousins. Most people don't respond like Cousins. He has a weak temperament that would have precluded him making it in the NBA if he were simply an "NBA level talent".

In particular you mention KG. Let's remember that with Garnett we already saw how he'd respond under inept management: He continued to play hard for years and never demanded a trade, and as a result didn't get to another team until he'd been in the league over a decade. I'm not suggesting we should pretend everyone would respond as well as KG did, but it's not like it's out of nowhere that there are concerns about Cousins head. His 1 sentence draft profile was "Superstar talent, but a head case". Any player who has a 1 sentence profile without the word "head case" in it should be expected to handle these things better...and that's almost every prospect.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#135 » by MO12msu » Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:51 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
The Clippers had the best offense in the league this year despite Griffin missing time and then playing <100% for more time, and even with Griffin we've yet to see any evidence that that kicks the offense up to a whole different GOAT-ish level. Meanwhile their defense is suffering. I think you could make a great case that on a team with Paul & DeAndre, Kawhi is the better fit.

I actually agree with the general premise of your post with regards to Kawhi, however this part just seems a little disingenuous when evaluating Blake's offensive impact.
The Clipper's ORTG first 52 games(with Blake): 113.8
Next 15 games(no Blake): 109.8
Last 15 games(Blake returns): 115.2

That averages out to a 114.1 ORTG in games with Blake btw, 8.5 above the league average!!!! The 05 Suns were 8.4 above league average...

Those numbers suggest that the Clipper's offense is soooo good with Blake(and CP3) that they could miss one of them for 15 games and yet still have the best offense in the league. In fact, these numbers suggest that had we had a full season of Blake and CP3 we'd be talking about a GOAT offense. I think there's more evidence pointing to Blake as the best or second best offensive pf in the league than otherwise.

That said, I agree that Kawhi is either a superstar or very close to it, doesn't matter where that impact comes from.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#136 » by RSCD3_ » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:45 am

Id consider Griffin as high as 4th behind Curry/James/Paul in some order if he has a big postseason. Heck if he goes absolute bonkers maybe even 3rd
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#137 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:56 am

RSCD3_ wrote:Id consider Griffin as high as 4th behind Curry/James/Paul in some order if he has a big postseason. Heck if he goes absolute bonkers maybe even 3rd


Couldn't you say that about a lot of guys though? I mean, there are more than a hundred guys playing in the playoffs. Whichever one is the most impressive in it should probably be in your top 5 regardless of the regular season, right?

I get you're bringing up Griffin specifically because you can see it happen realistically and with most guys you can't though.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#138 » by SideshowBob » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:58 am

RSCD3_ wrote:Id consider Griffin as high as 4th behind Curry/James/Paul in some order if he has a big postseason. Heck if he goes absolute bonkers maybe even 3rd


He's just flat out not as good as Westbrook/Harden/Davis though. A few playoff games shouldn't be enough to sway it in his favor, UNLESS we see evidence that he's actually better than the RS indicated.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#139 » by RSCD3_ » Tue Apr 21, 2015 5:16 am

SideshowBob wrote:
RSCD3_ wrote:Id consider Griffin as high as 4th behind Curry/James/Paul in some order if he has a big postseason. Heck if he goes absolute bonkers maybe even 3rd


He's just flat out not as good as Westbrook/Harden/Davis though. A few playoff games shouldn't be enough to sway it in his favor, UNLESS we see evidence that he's actually better than the RS indicated.


I guess it depends on how much you value postseason play ( heck griffin having a great playoff run is just an assumption for now )and whether his playing ability wasnt there in the RS due to rust/injuries and this is a reflection of his true ability. For all the griffin decline topics though i didnt see him get much worse than the year before.

Maybe someone could provide the RAPM difference?

Davis has played better than davis and considering that he has been effective in the playoffs, chances are he'll end up ahead of griffin when all is said and done. I just think that Griffin has the chance to end up with some big stats if the clippers advance and face the rockets. Also I dont want to sound winning biased but griffin would need to advance to the second round for me to put him top 5 ( not so with the other members of the top 6 ) while putting up prime chuck numbers. Normally I close the lid on thoughts like thse but the next opponent after san antonio also doesnt have anyone to check blake so he could look really impressive over these first two rounds.

My preliminarty TOP % as of NOw is

Curry
Paul
LeBron
Harden
Davis
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#140 » by SideshowBob » Tue Apr 21, 2015 5:31 am

RSCD3_ wrote:I guess it depends on how much you value postseason play ( heck griffin having a great playoff run is just an assumption for now )and whether his playing ability wasnt there in the RS due to rust/injuries and this is a reflection of his true ability. For all the griffin decline topics though i didnt see him get much worse than the year before.


What I want to see from postseason play is the bolded, whether it can tell me something new or different about the player's "true ability". Problem is, postseason samples are small (more room for random fluctuation), highly specialized (matchups/game-to-game adjustments), and contingent on typically wildly different opponent level than the RS. More often than not, what I end up accounting for in the postseason is shifts in effort level (particularly on the defensive end). I'm willing to factor this in, because playing level in playoff series is what most largely affects title odds, but it's rare that my adjustments would go beyond this scope because of the above (though it's not impossible - say if Griffin busts out new offensive skills to cope with defenses that he hadn't shown or used earlier, THAT I'd be willing to use to boost him).
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