2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. *Full 2016 RS + PS RPM & RAPM Updated 6/24*

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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#121 » by JLei » Tue Dec 8, 2015 12:07 am

dontcalltimeout wrote:
JLei wrote:http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

Updated.

Curry still +11.
Lowry at +10 moves into 2nd.

Lowry is having a ridiculously good season. Proud to have him as a Raptor and have been on the bandwagon of this dude is good since we acquired him, never thought he'd be this good though. But he always had the ability to pull from 3 (and not be a terrible shot) which due to Curry changing the way coaches think has become a more acceptable shot however due to his height can't get it off the same way (he needs space). His weight loss (micro booty Lowry!) and extra speed gear has made teams scared of his penetration and closing out weaker and giving him more cushion as well as going under screens which has allowed him to hit 3 3's a game on 42%.

Westbrook, Kawhi, Bron, Draymond round out the top 6 which is not surprising to anyone.


As someone who was not been able to watch many Raptors games this year, I'm wondering if you think Lowry may actually be this good? Is he actually in the top tier of players this year? And if so, what / how has he improved?

From what I can tell he's never really approached this level.


He's not this good. But I can safely say he's playing like a better version of first half 2014 Lowry (21-5-8 on .56TS from games 5-36). The extra speed gives him more breakdown ability which teams are respecting which is freeing up his 3 pointer. He's pumpfaking way less since he has more space and just letting it fly.

He has retained his strength and his unique ability to post up a little bit as well which you would be afraid would go away with his booty shrinking.

Still 2014 Lowry was like the best guard in the East early last season (Wall and Butler might have something to say about it) so he's playing great. Hopefully with the extra weight gone and Demar healthy he won't break down this year. It's efforts like he had to give against GS again and again because of the injuries that just had him broken by midseason last year (no legs in the jumper).
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#122 » by dontcalltimeout » Tue Dec 8, 2015 4:28 am

JLei wrote:
dontcalltimeout wrote:
JLei wrote:http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

Updated.

Curry still +11.
Lowry at +10 moves into 2nd.

Lowry is having a ridiculously good season. Proud to have him as a Raptor and have been on the bandwagon of this dude is good since we acquired him, never thought he'd be this good though. But he always had the ability to pull from 3 (and not be a terrible shot) which due to Curry changing the way coaches think has become a more acceptable shot however due to his height can't get it off the same way (he needs space). His weight loss (micro booty Lowry!) and extra speed gear has made teams scared of his penetration and closing out weaker and giving him more cushion as well as going under screens which has allowed him to hit 3 3's a game on 42%.

Westbrook, Kawhi, Bron, Draymond round out the top 6 which is not surprising to anyone.


As someone who was not been able to watch many Raptors games this year, I'm wondering if you think Lowry may actually be this good? Is he actually in the top tier of players this year? And if so, what / how has he improved?

From what I can tell he's never really approached this level.


He's not this good. But I can safely say he's playing like a better version of first half 2014 Lowry (21-5-8 on .56TS from games 5-36). The extra speed gives him more breakdown ability which teams are respecting which is freeing up his 3 pointer. He's pumpfaking way less since he has more space and just letting it fly.

He has retained his strength and his unique ability to post up a little bit as well which you would be afraid would go away with his booty shrinking.

Still 2014 Lowry was like the best guard in the East early last season (Wall and Butler might have something to say about it) so he's playing great. Hopefully with the extra weight gone and Demar healthy he won't break down this year. It's efforts like he had to give against GS again and again because of the injuries that just had him broken by midseason last year (no legs in the jumper).



Yeah, I believe it. I was following him last year, but his second half of the season was disappointing. DeMar seemed almost like a double-edge sword too; he takes some pressure of Lowry, but also kills the flow of the offense too often for my liking.
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#123 » by JLei » Tue Dec 8, 2015 4:55 pm

dontcalltimeout wrote:
JLei wrote:
dontcalltimeout wrote:
As someone who was not been able to watch many Raptors games this year, I'm wondering if you think Lowry may actually be this good? Is he actually in the top tier of players this year? And if so, what / how has he improved?

From what I can tell he's never really approached this level.


He's not this good. But I can safely say he's playing like a better version of first half 2014 Lowry (21-5-8 on .56TS from games 5-36). The extra speed gives him more breakdown ability which teams are respecting which is freeing up his 3 pointer. He's pumpfaking way less since he has more space and just letting it fly.

He has retained his strength and his unique ability to post up a little bit as well which you would be afraid would go away with his booty shrinking.

Still 2014 Lowry was like the best guard in the East early last season (Wall and Butler might have something to say about it) so he's playing great. Hopefully with the extra weight gone and Demar healthy he won't break down this year. It's efforts like he had to give against GS again and again because of the injuries that just had him broken by midseason last year (no legs in the jumper).



Yeah, I believe it. I was following him last year, but his second half of the season was disappointing. DeMar seemed almost like a double-edge sword too; he takes some pressure of Lowry, but also kills the flow of the offense too often for my liking.


Demar is probably the least aesthetic shooting guard in the league for a basketball analyst. He's basically exactly what's wrong with developing as a wing under the influence of the Kobe generation (clearly his idol being from LA).

He'd average like 30-40ppg in a league with lesser defenders (China, Drew League haha) but he has developed all the wrong skills/ mentalities for being really successful in the NBA. Kobe was really one of a kind because of his ball handling and shooting ability and athleticism combined was just good enough to play that type of style and not be bad. We are getting a huge exhibit A with his current play of when you aren't elite at all those things combined how that style of play ends up being.
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#124 » by dontcalltimeout » Wed Dec 9, 2015 4:52 pm

Due to the small amount of games played so far, we know that RPM is largely dependent on the box-score prior. Of course, it’s started to adjust a bit , even since the first numbers went up. So I took the OBPM and DBPM of players and compared this to their RPM numbers. I excluded rookies,some players who I didn't think had enough minutes, and Harden (who's RPM shows him much better on offense, much worse on defense, but about the same overall).

This might be useless, but it also might give us an indication of which players are overperforming / underperforming relative to their stats.

(Disclaimer, these numbers are as of yesterday December 8th, 2015)

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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#125 » by ceiling raiser » Mon Jan 4, 2016 4:16 pm

I requested RAPM for a few players from J.E. on APBRmetrics, turns out he'd put them up on Twitter this morning. Great timing lol, should've checked there first.

Anyhow, here are the links to the single/multi year RAPM sheets:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/683968069459406848[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/683968853332865024[/tweet]
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#126 » by E-Balla » Mon Jan 4, 2016 4:30 pm

fpliii wrote:I requested RAPM for a few players from J.E. on APBRmetrics, turns out he'd put them up on Twitter this morning. Great timing lol, should've checked there first.

Anyhow, here are the links to the single/multi year RAPM sheets:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/683968069459406848[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/683968853332865024[/tweet]

Ricky and Iman are surprisingly high.
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#127 » by Jaivl » Mon Jan 4, 2016 4:42 pm

E-Balla wrote:Ricky and Iman are surprisingly high.

Not sure Ricky is surprising given his +/- and given he's on the top 10 in RAPM more times than not.
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#128 » by Mutnt » Mon Jan 4, 2016 4:52 pm

Looking at single year, a lot of boosted players which is not even surprising at this stage. Curry 2.2 defensively, hehe, good one. Also, not sure what Snell is doing at #17 while every other Bull is outside the top 100 (including Pau and Butler way down).
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#129 » by bondom34 » Mon Jan 4, 2016 4:54 pm

Yeah a few OKC guys threw me off in single year. Ibaka hasn't looked that good, Waiters is still terrible, and Westbrook has flat out outplayed Durant. The last one is probably least surprising in the numbers, but I'm really surprised w/ Ibaka in particular, despite raw on/off.
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#130 » by Jaivl » Mon Jan 4, 2016 5:01 pm

Single year is just too noisy. Don't use it. I use prior-informed and try to adjust mentally for last year's play.
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#131 » by yoyoboy » Mon Jan 4, 2016 5:45 pm

NPI Single-year RAPM is useless. Curry is not a more impactful defender than LeBron James and Draymond Green...

Still waiting on PI RAPM data.
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#132 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jan 7, 2016 3:42 am

fpliii wrote:I requested RAPM for a few players from J.E. on APBRmetrics, turns out he'd put them up on Twitter this morning. Great timing lol, should've checked there first.

Anyhow, here are the links to the single/multi year RAPM sheets:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/683968069459406848[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/683968853332865024[/tweet]


Thank you fpliii!
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#133 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jan 7, 2016 3:44 am

Jaivl wrote:Single year is just too noisy. Don't use it. I use prior-informed and try to adjust mentally for last year's play.


That's what I do when you can adjust for it, but in my experience if you really need to adjust for it, it's precisely because you aren't sure how to adjust for it. So where players are clearly changing as players, I have a real hard time ignoring NPI.
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#134 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jan 7, 2016 3:48 am

yoyoboy wrote:NPI Single-year RAPM is useless. Curry is not a more impactful defender than LeBron James and Draymond Green...

Still waiting on PI RAPM data.


Do understand that the ability to split between offensive and defensive impact in a stat like this is an issue primarily because the game doesn't fit neatly into offense & defense like we like to think. Some offensive player allow a team's DRTG to flourish and some offensive players allow a team's ORTG to flourish. The overall impact is the thing to always look at first, and if you judge the overall RAPM data to seem stable enough, then the issues here aren't really sample size.

Are they stable enough now? Well, certainly enough to be 'useful' give that no one doubts Curry's place at the top.
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#135 » by roriobane » Thu Jan 7, 2016 3:58 am

JLei wrote:
dontcalltimeout wrote:
JLei wrote:
He's not this good. But I can safely say he's playing like a better version of first half 2014 Lowry (21-5-8 on .56TS from games 5-36). The extra speed gives him more breakdown ability which teams are respecting which is freeing up his 3 pointer. He's pumpfaking way less since he has more space and just letting it fly.

He has retained his strength and his unique ability to post up a little bit as well which you would be afraid would go away with his booty shrinking.

Still 2014 Lowry was like the best guard in the East early last season (Wall and Butler might have something to say about it) so he's playing great. Hopefully with the extra weight gone and Demar healthy he won't break down this year. It's efforts like he had to give against GS again and again because of the injuries that just had him broken by midseason last year (no legs in the jumper).



Yeah, I believe it. I was following him last year, but his second half of the season was disappointing. DeMar seemed almost like a double-edge sword too; he takes some pressure of Lowry, but also kills the flow of the offense too often for my liking.


Demar is probably the least aesthetic shooting guard in the league for a basketball analyst. He's basically exactly what's wrong with developing as a wing under the influence of the Kobe generation (clearly his idol being from LA).

He'd average like 30-40ppg in a league with lesser defenders (China, Drew League haha) but he has developed all the wrong skills/ mentalities for being really successful in the NBA. Kobe was really one of a kind because of his ball handling and shooting ability and athleticism combined was just good enough to play that type of style and not be bad. We are getting a huge exhibit A with his current play of when you aren't elite at all those things combined how that style of play ends up being.


Except Prime Bryant was nothing like Demar stylistically...he was infinitely better as a passer/play-maker, far better at reading defenses, and was just a far smarter player. Nice try doe.
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#136 » by JLei » Thu Jan 7, 2016 4:22 am

roriobane wrote:
JLei wrote:
dontcalltimeout wrote:

Yeah, I believe it. I was following him last year, but his second half of the season was disappointing. DeMar seemed almost like a double-edge sword too; he takes some pressure of Lowry, but also kills the flow of the offense too often for my liking.


Demar is probably the least aesthetic shooting guard in the league for a basketball analyst. He's basically exactly what's wrong with developing as a wing under the influence of the Kobe generation (clearly his idol being from LA).

He'd average like 30-40ppg in a league with lesser defenders (China, Drew League haha) but he has developed all the wrong skills/ mentalities for being really successful in the NBA. Kobe was really one of a kind because of his ball handling and shooting ability and athleticism combined was just good enough to play that type of style and not be bad. We are getting a huge exhibit A with his current play of when you aren't elite at all those things combined how that style of play ends up being.


Except Prime Bryant was nothing like Demar stylistically...he was infinitely better as a passer/play-maker, far better at reading defenses, and was just a far smarter player. Nice try doe.


That was exactly my point. He tries to emulate Kobe while having none of that. That's why its not aesthetic at all. Kobe is special because he's got all of that on top of being a superb shot maker.
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#137 » by Atmanne » Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:25 pm

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/686584441888751616[/tweet]

RPM also updated: http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#138 » by PCProductions » Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:39 pm

Boy, Tyson Chandler really has been bad this year. I thought he was a good pickup as well. Very disappointing for Suns fans I'm sure.
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#139 » by PCProductions » Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:40 pm

So is Patty Mills the 6MOY front runner then?
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Re: 2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. Thread 

Post#140 » by Mutnt » Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:53 pm

He's not even the 6th man of his own team.

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