2018-19 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[eminence]

Maybe you forgot but Justise was top 10 in DRAPM and in DRAPM*POSS he was 5th under Steven Adams, Kawhi, Draymond, and (surprisingly) Kyle Korver. Should've been all defense.

EDIT: IIRC tracking stats loved him too.

I'd suggest running your own #'s. Were they accurate, suggesting that that's real evidence for Winslow over JJJ defensively is pretty funny stuff. Danny Green for MVP baby, also Draymond is the GOAT!

When did you decide to start **** posting constantly? Serious question.

Only for you baby.

When your source (https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/season/2015-16/regular-season/ is an undergrad project that disagrees with everything else everyone has ever done, maybe you should rethink why you're using it.

[bondom34]

Wait that was an undergrad project? Jeez I've seen people post those before and wondered why they were so off of shadow's numbers.

[E-Balla]

I'd suggest running your own #'s. Were they accurate, suggesting that that's real evidence for Winslow over JJJ defensively is pretty funny stuff. Danny Green for MVP baby, also Draymond is the GOAT!

When did you decide to start **** posting constantly? Serious question.

Only for you baby.

When your source (https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/season/2015-16/regular-season/ is an undergrad project that disagrees with everything else everyone has ever done, maybe you should rethink why you're using it.

Ehh its what came up so its what I used. If it's off that's whatever but your main point that RAPM doesn't mean a player is better than another would've been better to just say if that was the main point of your post. If the point was the numbers were off that again would've been simple to say. Justise was a freak in year 1. JJJ is also a freak... When he's on the floor.

[eminence]

Wait that was an undergrad project? Jeez I've seen people post those before and wondered why they were so off of shadow's numbers.

Not that it's poorly done, his presentation is excellent in its simplicity, he did a decent job of explaining his work in the paper, and the documentation is good. It's just that it's way off from everything I've seen. And it being in Python I have no idea why, lol.

[Jim Naismith]

In Feb, Giannis is quietly averaging 34/13/6 on .731 TS% , including .429 3P%.

Also, 37.8 PER

[E-Balla]

In Feb, Giannis is quietly averaging 34/13/6 on .731 TS% , including .429 3P%.

Also, 37.8 PER

It's been 5 games...

EDIT: In his last 5 Kemba is averaging 34/6/7 on 63 TS% with a 34.1 PER.

Harden is averaging 39/7/4 with 4 combined blocks and steals a 67 TS% and a 36.4 PER.

This month (6 games) PG13 is averaging 40/8/5 on 70 TS% with a 34.2 PER.

Long story short IDK about y'all but I no longer have a concept of what constitutes great numbers. Good is still good but great? I have zero idea. Giannis having that performance should be far and away the best in the league similar to Lebron in Feb of 2013 when he averaged 30/8/8 on 73 TS% with a 37.3 PER. Those numbers (30/8/8) went from amazing to pedestrian in half a decade. It's crazy.

[Texas Chuck]

Long story short IDK about y'all but I no longer have a concept of what constitutes great numbers. Good is still good but great? I have zero idea. Giannis having that performance should be far and away the best in the league similar to Lebron in Feb of 2013 when he averaged 30/8/8 on 73 TS% with a 37.3 PER. Those numbers (30/8/8) went from amazing to pedestrian in half a decade. It's crazy.

Yep. We have to really be careful not to get too worked up about counting stats in what is essentially a "juiced ball" season. I think historically we will put this in better perspective like we are able to do with Wilt's numbers.

Not trying to diminish what these guys are doing, but something is going on here beyond just all these players just taking huge leap forwards this year.

[AussieBuck]

Long story short IDK about y'all but I no longer have a concept of what constitutes great numbers. Good is still good but great? I have zero idea. Giannis having that performance should be far and away the best in the league similar to Lebron in Feb of 2013 when he averaged 30/8/8 on 73 TS% with a 37.3 PER. Those numbers (30/8/8) went from amazing to pedestrian in half a decade. It's crazy.

Yep. We have to really be careful not to get too worked up about counting stats in what is essentially a "juiced ball" season. I think historically we will put this in better perspective like we are able to do with Wilt's numbers.

Not trying to diminish what these guys are doing, but something is going on here beyond just all these players just taking huge leap forwards this year.

That's cool, just give Giannis more credit for anchoring the best defense in the league against the "juiced ball." It all balances out fine and he's still the player of the year.

[Jaivl]

In Feb, Giannis is quietly averaging 34/13/6 on .731 TS% , including .429 3P%.

Also, 37.8 PER

You should make a thread: "Is Giannis the best 3 point shooter ever?".

[Colbinii]

In Feb, Giannis is quietly averaging 34/13/6 on .731 TS% , including .429 3P%.

Also, 37.8 PER

You should make a thread: "Is Giannis the best 3 point shooter ever?".

Derrick Rose would like to have a word with you.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[Bad Gatorade]

In Feb, Giannis is quietly averaging 34/13/6 on .731 TS% , including .429 3P%.

Also, 37.8 PER

You should make a thread: "Is Giannis the best 3 point shooter ever?".

Derrick Rose would like to have a word with you.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Fun fact: Klay Thompson shot 89/267 in the first 36 games for a 3 point shooting percentage of 33.3%. Since then, he has shot 75/145 for 51.7% from 3, and is now up to 39.8% from 3 from the year.

Now, if essentially half a season isn't enough to even remotely gauge how good Klay is as a shooter (and I think it's fair to say that's the outlier portion, given he has broken 40% from 3 every year of his career)... I don't see why 6/14 from Giannis is really "noteworthy" when he's still 29/128 from 3 before then.

It's kind of reminiscent of when, after a hot shooting playoffs, Wade shot 19/49 (38.8%) in his first 14 games of his Chicago Bulls season, and there was some minor excitement over Wade "suddenly learning how to shoot 3s." He shot 27.1% from 3 for the remainder of the season. Or when that same season, DeRozan started off as the second coming of Kobe because he was averaging something like 59% from long 2s.

All players go on shooting streaks sometimes, and all players go through shooting slumps. And most of us severely underestimate how long it can take for either of those to break.

[Ballerhogger]

Giannis and harden will be neck and neck the whole season so far Giannis takes it

[ardee]

In Feb, Giannis is quietly averaging 34/13/6 on .731 TS% , including .429 3P%.

Also, 37.8 PER

It's been 5 games...

EDIT: In his last 5 Kemba is averaging 34/6/7 on 63 TS% with a 34.1 PER.

Harden is averaging 39/7/4 with 4 combined blocks and steals a 67 TS% and a 36.4 PER.

This month (6 games) PG13 is averaging 40/8/5 on 70 TS% with a 34.2 PER.

Long story short IDK about y'all but I no longer have a concept of what constitutes great numbers. Good is still good but great? I have zero idea. Giannis having that performance should be far and away the best in the league similar to Lebron in Feb of 2013 when he averaged 30/8/8 on 73 TS% with a 37.3 PER. Those numbers (30/8/8) went from amazing to pedestrian in half a decade. It's crazy.

I mean you probably mentioned the 3 best players in the league this year (Harden, Giannis, PG). Not like some bums are putting up those numbers. Kemba's are a notch below.

[E-Balla]

In Feb, Giannis is quietly averaging 34/13/6 on .731 TS% , including .429 3P%.

Also, 37.8 PER

It's been 5 games...

EDIT: In his last 5 Kemba is averaging 34/6/7 on 63 TS% with a 34.1 PER.

Harden is averaging 39/7/4 with 4 combined blocks and steals a 67 TS% and a 36.4 PER.

This month (6 games) PG13 is averaging 40/8/5 on 70 TS% with a 34.2 PER.

Long story short IDK about y'all but I no longer have a concept of what constitutes great numbers. Good is still good but great? I have zero idea. Giannis having that performance should be far and away the best in the league similar to Lebron in Feb of 2013 when he averaged 30/8/8 on 73 TS% with a 37.3 PER. Those numbers (30/8/8) went from amazing to pedestrian in half a decade. It's crazy.

I mean you probably mentioned the 3 best players in the league this year (Harden, Giannis, PG). Not like some bums are putting up those numbers. Kemba's are a notch below.

There's a difference between not being a bum and 4 players playing roughly on the same level as Lebron during the best month he's ever played.

[ardee]

It's been 5 games...

EDIT: In his last 5 Kemba is averaging 34/6/7 on 63 TS% with a 34.1 PER.

Harden is averaging 39/7/4 with 4 combined blocks and steals a 67 TS% and a 36.4 PER.

This month (6 games) PG13 is averaging 40/8/5 on 70 TS% with a 34.2 PER.

Long story short IDK about y'all but I no longer have a concept of what constitutes great numbers. Good is still good but great? I have zero idea. Giannis having that performance should be far and away the best in the league similar to Lebron in Feb of 2013 when he averaged 30/8/8 on 73 TS% with a 37.3 PER. Those numbers (30/8/8) went from amazing to pedestrian in half a decade. It's crazy.

I mean you probably mentioned the 3 best players in the league this year (Harden, Giannis, PG). Not like some bums are putting up those numbers. Kemba's are a notch below.

There's a difference between not being a bum and 4 players playing roughly on the same level as Lebron during the best month he's ever played.

Let them keep it up for the whole month and we'll have this discussion.

Sent from my SM-G615F using RealGM mobile app

[ShotCreator]

I was probably too low on Giannis' offense. He's a legitimately good passer and anticipator. He looks like a +4 guy there. Maybe better.
He's a monster. Clearly above a normal MVP year. Step below GOAT-level though.

Between Giannis, Davis and George there have been some insane two-ways peaks his season.

[ShotCreator]

In Feb, Giannis is quietly averaging 34/13/6 on .731 TS% , including .429 3P%.

Also, 37.8 PER

It's been 5 games...

EDIT: In his last 5 Kemba is averaging 34/6/7 on 63 TS% with a 34.1 PER.

Harden is averaging 39/7/4 with 4 combined blocks and steals a 67 TS% and a 36.4 PER.

This month (6 games) PG13 is averaging 40/8/5 on 70 TS% with a 34.2 PER.

Long story short IDK about y'all but I no longer have a concept of what constitutes great numbers. Good is still good but great? I have zero idea. Giannis having that performance should be far and away the best in the league similar to Lebron in Feb of 2013 when he averaged 30/8/8 on 73 TS% with a 37.3 PER. Those numbers (30/8/8) went from amazing to pedestrian in half a decade. It's crazy.

And LeBron of that year, had an offensive playoff run that is comparable to 3 of Harden's last 4 playoff runs.

I was watching the 13 and 14 playoffs a couple weeks ago and it was just an uglier setup for offenses. OKC ran out Perkins and Collison in the same starting lineup during the WCF.

The era difference is real and I'm trying to gauge it. I really think 14 LeBron would tinker with high 60s TS% for a season on the right team today. An the right team would be most of the current playoff teams.

[Dr Spaceman]

I was probably too low on Giannis' offense. He's a legitimately good passer and anticipator. He looks like a +4 guy there. Maybe better.
He's a monster. Clearly above a normal MVP year. Step below GOAT-level though.

Between Giannis, Davis and George there have been some insane two-ways peaks his season.

I’d put Giannis at about +3.5-4 O and +3 D. So yeah he’s around the +7 range for me which is approaching GOAT territory.

But I don’t know anymore. I wonder if we have to grade these performances on a curve because compared to every offensive season in history I’m inclined to give Harden like a +8 for this year

[eminence]

+4 sounds well too high for Giannis's O to me. The Bucks are like a +3 offense and his 2-5 are all rock solid, with Bud running the show. I'd say his offense is still a very notable step behind his defense. Say +2/+3 O/D split for +5ish overall (my scale doesn't usually go quite as high as others, topping out at +7).

[E-Balla]

+4 sounds well too high for Giannis's O to me. The Bucks are like a +3 offense and his 2-5 are all rock solid, with Bud running the show. I'd say his offense is still a very notable step behind his defense. Say +2/+3 O/D split for +5ish overall (my scale doesn't usually go quite as high as others, topping out at +7).

Agreed but like you I also have a low scale. I don't think anyone can claim to be more than +7 in a vacuum.