NBA Superstars production in playoffs based on faced defenses

[70sFan]

Context seems to be missing in this topic. In the 90s it was far more physical and rougher, much harder to score com powered to most eras. So a player going through hand checks and big bumps going to the basket were not going to score as much as someone getting the foul call nowadays or know n they'll get no contact. Players train for their environment and when you know you're going to have it rough you have that in your mind and it's harder than knowing the conditions are easier.

The data is adjusted for environment faced. Besides, your narrative that 1990s is much harder and tougher than any other era is huge hyperbole with no evidences to back it up.

[migya]

Context seems to be missing in this topic. In the 90s it was far more physical and rougher, much harder to score com powered to most eras. So a player going through hand checks and big bumps going to the basket were not going to score as much as someone getting the foul call nowadays or know n they'll get no contact. Players train for their environment and when you know you're going to have it rough you have that in your mind and it's harder than knowing the conditions are easier.

The data is adjusted for environment faced. Besides, your narrative that 1990s is much harder and tougher than any other era is huge hyperbole with no evidences to back it up.

Watch the games.

[70sFan]

Context seems to be missing in this topic. In the 90s it was far more physical and rougher, much harder to score com powered to most eras. So a player going through hand checks and big bumps going to the basket were not going to score as much as someone getting the foul call nowadays or know n they'll get no contact. Players train for their environment and when you know you're going to have it rough you have that in your mind and it's harder than knowing the conditions are easier.

The data is adjusted for environment faced. Besides, your narrative that 1990s is much harder and tougher than any other era is huge hyperbole with no evidences to back it up.

Watch the games.

Are you serious? I watched like 60 1990s games last year...

[feyki]

Context seems to be missing in this topic. In the 90s it was far more physical and rougher, much harder to score com powered to most eras. So a player going through hand checks and big bumps going to the basket were not going to score as much as someone getting the foul call nowadays or know n they'll get no contact. Players train for their environment and when you know you're going to have it rough you have that in your mind and it's harder than knowing the conditions are easier.

The data is adjusted for environment faced. Besides, your narrative that 1990s is much harder and tougher than any other era is huge hyperbole with no evidences to back it up.

90's - %53 TS, %14,5 TOV,
10's - %54,5 TS, %13 TOV,

. 90's were much tougher than any era thereafter, besides early 00's. But comparing early 00's and post 2016 is making it normal :

00/04 - %52 TS, %14 TOV,
17/21 - %56 TS, %12,5 TOV
. It's %10 difference , totally the two different game .

[McBubbles]

Context seems to be missing in this topic. In the 90s it was far more physical and rougher, much harder to score com powered to most eras. So a player going through hand checks and big bumps going to the basket were not going to score as much as someone getting the foul call nowadays or know n they'll get no contact. Players train for their environment and when you know you're going to have it rough you have that in your mind and it's harder than knowing the conditions are easier.

The data is adjusted for environment faced. Besides, your narrative that 1990s is much harder and tougher than any other era is huge hyperbole with no evidences to back it up.

90's - %53 TS, %14,5 TOV,
10's - %54,5 TS, %13 TOV,

. 90's were much tougher than any era thereafter, besides early 00's. But comparing early 00's and post 2016 is making it normal :

00/04 - %52 TS, %14 TOV,
17/21 - %56 TS, %12,5 TOV
. It's %10 difference , totally the two different game .

If the TS of the 90's is only 1% lower than the TS of the 2005-2016 despite the former being artificially deflated because of a lack of 3 point volume, it means that the defensive environment was actually the same or easier in the 90's.

Or put another way, if the 3 point volume for 05-16 was the same as it was in the 90's, the TS% would be lower than 53%.

[feyki]

The data is adjusted for environment faced. Besides, your narrative that 1990s is much harder and tougher than any other era is huge hyperbole with no evidences to back it up.

90's - %53 TS, %14,5 TOV,
10's - %54,5 TS, %13 TOV,

. 90's were much tougher than any era thereafter, besides early 00's. But comparing early 00's and post 2016 is making it normal :

00/04 - %52 TS, %14 TOV,
17/21 - %56 TS, %12,5 TOV
. It's %10 difference , totally the two different game .

If the TS of the 90's is only 1% lower than the TS of the 2005-2016 despite the former being artificially deflated because of a lack of 3 point volume, it means that the defensive environment was actually the same or easier in the 90's.

Or put another way, if the 3 point volume for 05-16 was the same as it was in the 90's, the TS% would be lower than 53%.

If it would be that simple, yes; but when you're commenting the situation, ignoring a point, the defence. If it was like as you said, TOV% also would stayed the same; like three point shooting was harder to do compared to post the handcheck ban.

If you have a data about contested and unconstested 3point shootings in the NBA history, would want to see that and may change my opinion.

[70sFan]

Context seems to be missing in this topic. In the 90s it was far more physical and rougher, much harder to score com powered to most eras. So a player going through hand checks and big bumps going to the basket were not going to score as much as someone getting the foul call nowadays or know n they'll get no contact. Players train for their environment and when you know you're going to have it rough you have that in your mind and it's harder than knowing the conditions are easier.

The data is adjusted for environment faced. Besides, your narrative that 1990s is much harder and tougher than any other era is huge hyperbole with no evidences to back it up.

90's - %53 TS, %14,5 TOV,
10's - %54,5 TS, %13 TOV,

. 90's were much tougher than any era thereafter, besides early 00's. But comparing early 00's and post 2016 is making it normal :

00/04 - %52 TS, %14 TOV,
17/21 - %56 TS, %12,5 TOV
. It's %10 difference , totally the two different game .

What's your point? I already adjusted efficiency for era differences.

[McBubbles]

90's - %53 TS, %14,5 TOV,
10's - %54,5 TS, %13 TOV,

. 90's were much tougher than any era thereafter, besides early 00's. But comparing early 00's and post 2016 is making it normal :

00/04 - %52 TS, %14 TOV,
17/21 - %56 TS, %12,5 TOV
. It's %10 difference , totally the two different game .

If the TS of the 90's is only 1% lower than the TS of the 2005-2016 despite the former being artificially deflated because of a lack of 3 point volume, it means that the defensive environment was actually the same or easier in the 90's.

Or put another way, if the 3 point volume for 05-16 was the same as it was in the 90's, the TS% would be lower than 53%.

If it would be that simple, yes; but when you're commenting the situation, ignoring a point, the defence. If it was like as you said, TOV% also would stayed the same; like three point shooting was harder to do compared to post the handcheck ban.

If you have a data about contested and unconstested 3point shootings in the NBA history, would want to see that and may change my opinion.

A 1.5% turnover increase would make a small increase in pace, it wouldn't change scoring efficiency much if at all.

Also I highly, highly doubt 3 pointers were more contested. Hand checking isn't particularly useful for contesting catch and shoot plays. It's for dribbling, and off the dribble 3's weren't a thing in the 90's.

[feyki]

If the TS of the 90's is only 1% lower than the TS of the 2005-2016 despite the former being artificially deflated because of a lack of 3 point volume, it means that the defensive environment was actually the same or easier in the 90's.

Or put another way, if the 3 point volume for 05-16 was the same as it was in the 90's, the TS% would be lower than 53%.

If it would be that simple, yes; but when you're commenting the situation, ignoring a point, the defence. If it was like as you said, TOV% also would stayed the same; like three point shooting was harder to do compared to post the handcheck ban.

If you have a data about contested and unconstested 3point shootings in the NBA history, would want to see that and may change my opinion.

A 1.5% turnover increase would make a small increase in pace, it wouldn't change scoring efficiency much if at all.

Also I highly, highly doubt 3 pointers were more contested. Hand checking isn't particularly useful for contesting catch and shoot plays. It's for dribbling, and off the dribble 3's weren't a thing in the 90's.

That's right on the catch and shoots, but on the dribblings,shot creates the opposite. Top 10 players with unassisted rates in the 2021 and the 1997:

2021;
Doncic - %86
Paul - %84
Trae - %83
Harden - %80
West - %76
Derozan - %72
Lilliard - %72
Mitchell - %72
Irving - %67
Ja Morant - %65,
Average - %76

1997;
G.Hill - %76
Strickland - %76
T.Hardaway - %74
D.Stoudemire - %74
K.Anderson - %72
S.Marbury - %71
KJ - %70
NV Exel - %66
AI - %65
GP - %59
Average - %70

. The difference of the amount of drives a game between the 2021 and the 2014 seasons is huge; 2021 had almost 50 players to had 10+ drives per game, it's 22 in the 2014. Think about the difference between the 97 and post 16. Till the 2016, 15+ drives per game was rare, post 2016 almost ten players consistently play with that kind of amount of drives.

The point is with-ball, not off-ball.

[ty 4191]

I'd explain it(for the thousandth time) with that way, Kareem played against 1th best defence(93,5) with 34,8 PPG and %67,5 TS and played against second best defence(93,6) with 32,6 PPG and with %55,2 TS in the 1974 Playoffs. Wonder Why?

That's true, although, Kareem never faced a single All Time Great (-7 or better) defense in his career, in 49 Series across 18 Seasons.

Wilt vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
45% of total playoff games played
47.2 MPG
25.0 PPG
26.6 RBG
3.5 AST/G
rTS%: +3.8%

Lebron vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
22.1% of total playoff games played
42.3 MPG
26.3 PGG
7.8 RBG
6.5 AST/G
rTS%: -1.3%

Kareem vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
13.9% of total playoff games played
42.1 MPG
29.4 PPG
14.2 RBG
3.8 AST/G
rTS%: +4.8%

Jordan vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses
33.0% of total playoff games played
42.1 MPG
32.7 PPG
6.3 RBG
6.3 AST/G
rTS%: 0.15%

Are people interested in seeing anyone else (full career)? If so, which players?

[feyki]

I'd explain it(for the thousandth time) with that way, Kareem played against 1th best defence(93,5) with 34,8 PPG and %67,5 TS and played against second best defence(93,6) with 32,6 PPG and with %55,2 TS in the 1974 Playoffs. Wonder Why?

That's true, although, Kareem never faced a single All Time Great (-7 or better) defense in his career, in 49 Series across 18 Seasons.

Wilt vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
45% of total playoff games played
47.2 MPG
25.0 PPG
26.6 RBG
3.5 AST/G
rTS%: +3.8%

Lebron vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
22.1% of total playoff games played
42.3 MPG
26.3 PGG
7.8 RBG
6.5 AST/G
rTS%: -1.3%

Kareem vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
13.9% of total playoff games played
42.1 MPG
29.4 PPG
14.2 RBG
3.8 AST/G
rTS%: +4.8%

Jordan vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses
33.0% of total playoff games played
42.1 MPG
32.7 PPG
6.3 RBG
6.3 AST/G
rTS%: 0.15%

Are people interested in seeing anyone else (full career)? If so, which players?

I would want to see Dirk. If it possible, sure.

[frica]

Context seems to be missing in this topic. In the 90s it was far more physical and rougher, much harder to score com powered to most eras. So a player going through hand checks and big bumps going to the basket were not going to score as much as someone getting the foul call nowadays or know n they'll get no contact. Players train for their environment and when you know you're going to have it rough you have that in your mind and it's harder than knowing the conditions are easier.

Everyone already adjusts for era...

So an era being harder or easier doesn't matter because outliers will be outliers.

[ty 4191]

Larry Bird, Entire Career, Playoffs:

Vs. Bad Defenses (5.42% of total games):
37.9 mpg, 20.6/7.3/8.2 (rTS%: +0.5%)

Vs. Average Defenses (53.01% of total games):
42 mpg, 24.4/6.9/9.7 (tTS%: +2.1%)

Vs. Good Defenses (24.7% of total games):
42.3 mpg, 22.1/6.4/10.6 (rTS%: -3.2%)

Vs. Elite Defenses (16.87% of total games):
41.7 mpg, 24.4/5.3/11.5 (rTS%: 4.5%)

Vs. All Time Great Defenses (0% of total games):
--

[LukaTheGOAT]

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[falcolombardi]

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i personally prefer to use rival defense than rival overall goodness if the question is a boxscore (aka, mostly offense) performance

this is a very big difference to lebron numbers vs top teams and i think the reason is that lebron faced a ton of elite defense with bad offense

[LukaTheGOAT]

[streamable][/streamable]

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i personally prefer to use rival defense than rival overall goodness if the question is a boxscore (aka, mostly offense) performance

this is a very big difference to lebron numbers vs top teams and i think the reason is that lebron faced a ton of elite defense with bad offense

Fair. I just found this post on Twitter of someone who calculated his averages against all the top 3 defenses he played from 09 onward, so I thought it was worth sharing. I would be interested in the differences if you did look at overall team strength and if there is anything to glean from it (example maybe great offenses can tire out people and they perform worse on offense themselves, even if the their defenses might not generally be as strong).

[WestGOAT]

Is this OP still up-to-date?

Would be nice to have it available in a shareable spreadsheet!

Also I take it rTS % is adjusted for league-average?
Did you consider adjusting for opposition TS% allowed during the RS?

For example, hypothetical, Bird having a TS% of 53 against the 76ers and adjusting for a TS% of 51 (allowed by the 76ers during the RS) would be more impressive than adjusting for a TS% of 52 (league-average). +2 rTS% vs 1+ rTS%

Also perhaps worthwhile to also add the total number of games (in addition to % of total games) so we can see how big the sample size is.

[70sFan]

Is this OP still up-to-date?

I would like to update this, but recently I don't have enough time to do that.

Would be nice to have it available in a shareable spreadsheet!

Sure, it's sloppy as hell (I did it two years ago), but it's there:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q7_2uizUlTf5hJr4rzmpnHL7zV7is0qKl5g8poOrmCY/edit?usp=sharing

Also I take it rTS % is adjusted for league-average?
Did you consider adjusting for opposition TS% allowed during the RS?

Yes, it's adjusted for league average. I wanted to make it opponents adjusted, but we don't have those stats for the 1960s teams unfortunately.

Also perhaps worthwhile to also add the total number of games (in addition to % of total games) so we can see how big the sample size is.

I thought it was relatively simple to calculate with basketball-reference help, but you might be right.

[WestGOAT]

Also I take it rTS % is adjusted for league-average?
Did you consider adjusting for opposition TS% allowed during the RS?

Yes, it's adjusted for league average. I wanted to make it opponents adjusted, but we don't have those stats for the 1960s teams unfortunately.

I checked and it indeed goes to 1971.

That said, it should be possible to approximate before then as long as the game logs are complete enough no?

For example all the 1970 LAL gamelogs report the RS TS%:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/1970/gamelog-advanced/

Assuming that the rest of the 1970 playoffs teams have most of the RS TS% reported, then opposition TS% should be possible to calculate/approximate?

Even 1958 gamelogs look pretty okay:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/1958/gamelog-advanced/

I think Wilt's relative TS% will probably look more impressive adjusting for opposition RS TS% instead of league-average TS%, since he tended to play against strong defensive teams in the playoffs.

Just not sure if it's worth all the extra effort though

[70sFan]

Yes, it's adjusted for league average. I wanted to make it opponents adjusted, but we don't have those stats for the 1960s teams unfortunately.

I checked and it indeed goes to 1971.

That said, it should be possible to approximate before then as long as the game logs are complete enough no?

For example all the 1970 LAL gamelogs report the RS TS%:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/1970/gamelog-advanced/

Assuming that the rest of the 1970 playoffs teams have most of the RS TS% reported, then opposition TS% should be possible to calculate/approximate?

Even 1958 gamelogs look pretty okay:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/1958/gamelog-advanced/

I think Wilt's relative TS% will probably look more impressive adjusting for opposition RS TS% instead of league-average TS%, since he tended to play against strong defensive teams in the playoffs.

Just not sure if it's worth all the extra effort though

I may try something like that during the summer.