Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor)

[DQuinn1575]

SRS isn't too complicated: It's just MOV+SOS. For example the 2006-07 Spurs won games by an average of 8.43 points per game and played a schedule with opponents that were 0.08 points worse than average, giving them an SRS of 8.35. For an NBA regular season it very rarely separates from MOV in a meaningful way.

The calculations seem circular to me, MOV for Spurs is 8.43 and when you adjust for Strength-of-Schedule, which is basically the opponent's average SRS, then you have the Spurs SRS, but how do you calculate the opponent's SRS?

The ratings keep changing untill they reach an "equilibirum" somehow:

Uh oh! Everyone else's ratings just changed again, so we've got to run through the same procedure again. And again. And again. And eventually the numbers stop changing. When that happens, you know you've arrived at the solution.

From: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index4837.html?p=37

I was just wondering what formula/calculations you need to exactly apply.

Are you coder? What we're talking about here is basically a while loop - keep going in circles until the exit condition is reached. In this case the exit condition pertains to how much the weights are still changing. Keep going until it settles down.

If you're wondering how things "magically" reach equilibrium, well I think the reality is that you're talking about waiting for the change to fall below some threshold and perhaps waiting for to stay there a certain number of iterations as opposed to truly waiting for change to reach zero.

Also, if you're doing stuff in a spreadsheet it's not the most conducive to loops, but there are things like Solver add-ons you can use.

Hope that helps.

If it helps, I've done it for college seasons, and run it through Excel 10 times. By the 10th time, the difference in ratings between the 9th run and 10th are pretty small, so I stopped there. My results came out real close to S-Ref or Sagarin. For full season NBA the strength of schedule adjustment doesnt get to be too big, and there are enough teams so it doesnt matter too much. In an 8 team league it does matter a little, because the best team and worst team dont get to face themselves. Im guessing 1976 ABA with one real bad team out of 7 might be best example.

[DQuinn1575]

Wes Unseld actually outrebounded Jabbar in the playoffs:

https://stathead.com/basketball/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&player_id1=abdulka01&player_id2=unselwe01

Yeah.
When I was looking over the matchups Abdul-Jabbar had, I saw him and Unseld went toe to toe, then forgot that by the time I reached 1981.

19.0 to 18.5 is hardly a significant difference, but yeah I should have Unseld in there as well.

Jabbar outrebounded him the first 3 games; Wes overtook him in game 4 when the series was over.
Looks like Moses and Kareem were closer in 81 then I thought; and really only Wilt outrebounded him signficantly in the playoffs.
I'mm not positive how much of his defensive rebounding decline in 80s was due age versus letting Magic grab a board or two to start the break and having Rambis there. AJ was not the outlet passer that Wes or Walton were.

[LA Bird]

Kareem video is up on Youtube now.

Watch on YouTube

[70sFan]

Let us all of you know what you think about this brilliant video!

[LukaTheGOAT]

I loved the video, and to me Ben does a great shop of pretty much proving that Kareem at his peak is AT WORST a top 5 scorer of all-time and with a great argument to be higher. I mean about 28 pts/75 on 11 rTS% in the PS is ridiculous and you typically don't expect your #1 option to have such efficiency when they are constantly being hounded. I mean that is like modern day Steph and KD volume, and on better efficiency than the both of them in the PS (without the advantage of getting to play next to a superstar to boot). I also liked how he addressed Kareem's passing and how he was one of the best creators for his time. I knew Kareem could pass some, but I never realized he was that great of a playmaker until Ben brought it up. I think I am generally higher on Kareem's offense now than before the video.

I do wonder, does anyone feel like Ben might've lowballed/gave a copout answer for Kareem a bit at the end? Ben says that Kareem had one of the 5 best peaks for a center ever, however I wonder if that is him being conservative (until he eventually ranks them?). I really want to see Ben rank guys from 1-15 and get an idea of how his thinking may have changed since his top 40 list and what not. Like for instance, what makes peak Shaq better than peak Kareem. Like I know Shaq scored on more volume, but then again Kareem did it on better efficiency so how do you balance the two? Also, if Kareem was such a strong passer, and creator, is the reason why Shaq peaked higher according to him (in his Backpicks write-up at least), due to his era being more spread out and being better for offense? Finally, is Shaq's defense notably better than Kareem's and if so why?

Kareem and Shaq to me are similar players in how they impacted the game, and so it would be nice to see what supposedly gives peak Shaq the leg up. I suppose peak Shaq had more gravity?

[letskissbro]

I'm not sure how reliable these are because I found them on twitter but apparently these are Ben's raw SRS impact numbers from his backpicks series. I believe they're stuck behind a paywall on his website as his +/- valuation model. Idk if there's a formula behind these or if it's just his own personal estimates but these are the highest 5 year peaks.

Tier 1: GOAT Level Peak (7+)

LeBron James (7.25)
Michael Jordan (7.00)

Tier 2: All-Time Level Peak (6.0-6.75)

Shaquille O'Neal (6.25)
Hakeem Olajuwon (6.25)
Tim Duncan (6.25)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6.00)
Bill Russell (6.00)

Tier 3: MVP Level Peak (5.0-5.75)

Magic Johnson (5.75)
Larry Bird (5.75)
Steph Curry (5.75)
David Robinson (5.75)
Wilt Chamberlain (5.50)
Kevin Garnett (5.50)
Jerry West (5.50)
Kobe Bryant (5.50)
Kevin Durant (5.25)
Oscar Robertson (5.25)

I'm not sure how he accounts for portability either but it's interesting that he originally had LeBron at #1 but docked him so much that he ended up third behind Jordan and Shaq on the official backpicks list. I always took issue with that because LeBron's had to adapt his game more than just about anybody in NBA history at this point and his impact has never seen a significant dip. It'll be interesting to see if he's reconsidered after this last season in LA. Garnett and Wilt are lower than I was expecting too but that's probably because they didn't really have consistent 5 years stretches of all-time level play

[Reservoirdawgs]

I'm not sure how reliable these are because I found them on twitter but apparently these are Ben's raw SRS impact numbers from his backpicks series. I believe they're stuck behind a paywall on his website as his +/- valuation model. Idk if there's a formula behind these or if it's just his own personal estimates but these are the highest 5 year peaks.

Tier 1: GOAT Level Peak (7+)

LeBron James (7.25)
Michael Jordan (7.00)

Tier 2: All-Time Level Peak (6.0-6.75)

Shaquille O'Neal (6.25)
Hakeem Olajuwon (6.25)
Tim Duncan (6.25)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6.00)
Bill Russell (6.00)

Tier 3: MVP Level Peak (5.0-5.75)

Magic Johnson (5.75)
Larry Bird (5.75)
Steph Curry (5.75)
David Robinson (5.75)
Wilt Chamberlain (5.50)
Kevin Garnett (5.50)
Jerry West (5.50)
Kobe Bryant (5.50)
Kevin Durant (5.25)
Oscar Robertson (5.25)

Assuming these are accurate, I'm very surprised to not see Steph Curry as a Tier 1 (and not even a high Tier 2). I'll be curious to watch his video on Curry because I would have thought that he would have been an easy Tier 1 for GOAT peak.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I'm not sure how reliable these are because I found them on twitter but apparently these are Ben's raw SRS impact numbers from his backpicks series. I believe they're stuck behind a paywall on his website as his +/- valuation model. Idk if there's a formula behind these or if it's just his own personal estimates but these are the highest 5 year peaks.

Tier 1: GOAT Level Peak (7+)

LeBron James (7.25)
Michael Jordan (7.00)

Tier 2: All-Time Level Peak (6.0-6.75)

Shaquille O'Neal (6.25)
Hakeem Olajuwon (6.25)
Tim Duncan (6.25)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6.00)
Bill Russell (6.00)

Tier 3: MVP Level Peak (5.0-5.75)

Magic Johnson (5.75)
Larry Bird (5.75)
Steph Curry (5.75)
David Robinson (5.75)
Wilt Chamberlain (5.50)
Kevin Garnett (5.50)
Jerry West (5.50)
Kobe Bryant (5.50)
Kevin Durant (5.25)
Oscar Robertson (5.25)

I'm not sure how he accounts for portability either but it's interesting that he originally had LeBron at #1 but docked him so much that he ended up third behind Jordan and Shaq on the official backpicks list. I always took issue with that because LeBron's had to adapt his game more than just about anybody in NBA history at this point and his impact has never seen a significant dip. It'll be interesting to see if he's reconsidered after this last season in LA. Garnett and Wilt are lower than I was expecting too but that's probably because they didn't really have consistent 5 years stretches of all-time level play

These are his own personal estimates based on his eye and stats available to him. The thing is Ben believes his game has been more portable over the last few years; I think in 2016 is the first time when LBJ hits 0 portability and he has been at 0 portability ever since then. The five year stretch from 09-13 has him at -2 portability all those years except for 2013 where he finally becomes -1. He said in a monthly Q&A that he believes Lebron's passing and shooting have improved to the point where his portability has increased. I don't agree with him but that is his logic.

With regards to Shaq being ahead of him, Shaq might've come out better regardless, but I know Lebron is dinged in 13 for missing games and that lowered his his CORP% a bit, while Shaq was giving perfect credit for games played. In the case of Garnett, I think he is dinged a bit for injuries in 05 and 07, but the thing with him is that his portability is what always made him special. Like the reason why he has an argument for having a top 5 peak according to Ben despite only having a 6.25 in 04 is because he has +2 portability (there are people who are higher like Duncan, Wilt, who have 6.5).

[LukaTheGOAT]

I'm not sure how reliable these are because I found them on twitter but apparently these are Ben's raw SRS impact numbers from his backpicks series. I believe they're stuck behind a paywall on his website as his +/- valuation model. Idk if there's a formula behind these or if it's just his own personal estimates but these are the highest 5 year peaks.

Tier 1: GOAT Level Peak (7+)

LeBron James (7.25)
Michael Jordan (7.00)

Tier 2: All-Time Level Peak (6.0-6.75)

Shaquille O'Neal (6.25)
Hakeem Olajuwon (6.25)
Tim Duncan (6.25)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6.00)
Bill Russell (6.00)

Tier 3: MVP Level Peak (5.0-5.75)

Magic Johnson (5.75)
Larry Bird (5.75)
Steph Curry (5.75)
David Robinson (5.75)
Wilt Chamberlain (5.50)
Kevin Garnett (5.50)
Jerry West (5.50)
Kobe Bryant (5.50)
Kevin Durant (5.25)
Oscar Robertson (5.25)

Assuming these are accurate, I'm very surprised to not see Steph Curry as a Tier 1 (and not even a high Tier 2). I'll be curious to watch his video on Curry because I would have thought that he would have been an easy Tier 1 for GOAT peak.

These are 5-year primes so Curry loses a bit of luster. Like 2016 is only labeled as a MVP level peak because of his PS injuries. Then he gets knocked a bit for the PS injury in 18 as well. Finally, this list doesn't keep account of portability, but rather raw +/- impact, and therefore Curry might be a bit lower than you are expecting.

[70sFan]

Like for instance, what makes peak Shaq better than peak Kareem. Like I know Shaq scored on more volume, but then again Kareem did it on better efficiency so how do you balance the two? Also, if Kareem was such a strong passer, and creator, is the reason why Shaq peaked higher according to him (in his Backpicks write-up at least), due to his era being more spread out and being better for offense? Finally, is Shaq's defense notably better than Kareem's and if so why?

Kareem and Shaq to me are similar players in how they impacted the game, and so it would be nice to see what supposedly gives peak Shaq the leg up. I suppose peak Shaq had more gravity?

Ben is very high on Shaq's offensive impact, so he'd probably have him ahead. From what I've seen, there is no significant difference between them and if anything, I prefer Kareem's efficiency and better passing over Shaq's offensive rebounding. Some people may talk about Shaq's gravity, but again - Kareem drew as much attention as any player in NBA history and even Ben mentioned his gravity in this video.

The biggest difference is not on offense, but on defense. Ben did a nice job breaking down Kareem's defense and although he wasn't GOAT-level defender, he was a clear DPOTY level anchor without many notable weaknesses outside of inconistent effort at times. Meanwhile Shaq even at his absolute best had a lot of holes defensively and most of the time he wasn't interested in playing defense. I'm waiting for Ben's video to see how he feels about Shaq's defense because the gap is huge in my opinion between Kareem and Shaq on that end.

In short - I find Kareem slightly better on offense (almost meaningless difference) and clearly better on defense. Ben probably disagrees with my view on their offense, but I doubt he thinks highly of Shaq's defense. We will see though.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Like for instance, what makes peak Shaq better than peak Kareem. Like I know Shaq scored on more volume, but then again Kareem did it on better efficiency so how do you balance the two? Also, if Kareem was such a strong passer, and creator, is the reason why Shaq peaked higher according to him (in his Backpicks write-up at least), due to his era being more spread out and being better for offense? Finally, is Shaq's defense notably better than Kareem's and if so why?

Kareem and Shaq to me are similar players in how they impacted the game, and so it would be nice to see what supposedly gives peak Shaq the leg up. I suppose peak Shaq had more gravity?

Ben is very high on Shaq's offensive impact, so he'd probably have him ahead. From what I've seen, there is no significant difference between them and if anything, I prefer Kareem's efficiency and better passing over Shaq's offensive rebounding. Some people may talk about Shaq's gravity, but again - Kareem drew as much attention as any player in NBA history and even Ben mentioned his gravity in this video.

The biggest difference is not on offense, but on defense. Ben did a nice job breaking down Kareem's defense and although he wasn't GOAT-level defender, he was a clear DPOTY level anchor without many notable weaknesses outside of inconistent effort at times. Meanwhile Shaq even at his absolute best had a lot of holes defensively and most of the time he wasn't interested in playing defense. I'm waiting for Ben's video to see how he feels about Shaq's defense because the gap is huge in my opinion between Kareem and Shaq on that end.

In short - I find Kareem slightly better on offense (almost meaningless difference) and clearly better on defense. Ben probably disagrees with my view on their offense, but I doubt he thinks highly of Shaq's defense. We will see though.

Definitely, like your analysis. I went back through the video and see he also mentioned the fact that Kareem's kickouts while helpful perhaps were not in the correct era to get the most value because there was no 3 point line. And unfortunately it seems like this lowered the value of Kareem's creation just a bit because the value of the shots he was creating were just a bit less valuable.

I also went back through Kareem's Backpicks profile and see that peak for peak on that end he rates Kareem higher than Shaq on defense (he mentions it at the very end of the article at point 9). However, assuming his evaluations haven't changed, it seems like he believes Shaq's peak 0 and peak D happened at the same time, while as he hypothesizes in the video, Kareem peaked on D with the Bucks and then peaked on O with the Lakers a few years later.

[70sFan]

Like for instance, what makes peak Shaq better than peak Kareem. Like I know Shaq scored on more volume, but then again Kareem did it on better efficiency so how do you balance the two? Also, if Kareem was such a strong passer, and creator, is the reason why Shaq peaked higher according to him (in his Backpicks write-up at least), due to his era being more spread out and being better for offense? Finally, is Shaq's defense notably better than Kareem's and if so why?

Kareem and Shaq to me are similar players in how they impacted the game, and so it would be nice to see what supposedly gives peak Shaq the leg up. I suppose peak Shaq had more gravity?

Ben is very high on Shaq's offensive impact, so he'd probably have him ahead. From what I've seen, there is no significant difference between them and if anything, I prefer Kareem's efficiency and better passing over Shaq's offensive rebounding. Some people may talk about Shaq's gravity, but again - Kareem drew as much attention as any player in NBA history and even Ben mentioned his gravity in this video.

The biggest difference is not on offense, but on defense. Ben did a nice job breaking down Kareem's defense and although he wasn't GOAT-level defender, he was a clear DPOTY level anchor without many notable weaknesses outside of inconistent effort at times. Meanwhile Shaq even at his absolute best had a lot of holes defensively and most of the time he wasn't interested in playing defense. I'm waiting for Ben's video to see how he feels about Shaq's defense because the gap is huge in my opinion between Kareem and Shaq on that end.

In short - I find Kareem slightly better on offense (almost meaningless difference) and clearly better on defense. Ben probably disagrees with my view on their offense, but I doubt he thinks highly of Shaq's defense. We will see though.

Definitely, like your analysis. I went back through the video and see he also mentioned the fact that Kareem's kickouts while helpful perhaps were not in the correct era to get the most value because there was no 3 point line. And unfortunately it seems like this lowered the value of Kareem's creation just a bit because the value of the shots he was creating were just a bit less valuable.

I also went back through Kareem's Backpicks profile and see that peak for peak on that end he rates Kareem higher than Shaq on defense (he mentions it at the very end of the article at point 9). However, assuming his evaluations haven't changed, it seems like he believes Shaq's peak 0 and peak D happened at the same time, while as he hypothesizes in the video, Kareem peaked on D with the Bucks and then peaked on O with the Lakers a few years later.

That's why I don't like looking at raw creation stats (which Ben created by the way). They are certainly helpful (much more than raw assists) but it can't be compared across eras. Ben mentioned that Kareem was elite creator for his era, but nobody could touch modern creators with the way basketball was played back in the 1970s.

About offense and defense - it's fair, I also think that Kareem peaked defensively a few seasons before 1977, but it doesn't change the fact that 1977 Kareem was still clearly better defender by anything I've seen from both. We will see though, it'd be exciting for sure.

I expect Bird video to be great by the way. Bird is perfect player for Ben to go deep into detalis, because he was defined by these little things he did on basketball court.

[KTM_2813]

These videos are very educational for me. I didn't realize how massive Kareem was. His legs never end.

[DQuinn1575]

Ben is very high on Shaq's offensive impact, so he'd probably have him ahead. From what I've seen, there is no significant difference between them and if anything, I prefer Kareem's efficiency and better passing over Shaq's offensive rebounding. Some people may talk about Shaq's gravity, but again - Kareem drew as much attention as any player in NBA history and even Ben mentioned his gravity in this video.

The biggest difference is not on offense, but on defense. Ben did a nice job breaking down Kareem's defense and although he wasn't GOAT-level defender, he was a clear DPOTY level anchor without many notable weaknesses outside of inconistent effort at times. Meanwhile Shaq even at his absolute best had a lot of holes defensively and most of the time he wasn't interested in playing defense. I'm waiting for Ben's video to see how he feels about Shaq's defense because the gap is huge in my opinion between Kareem and Shaq on that end.

In short - I find Kareem slightly better on offense (almost meaningless difference) and clearly better on defense. Ben probably disagrees with my view on their offense, but I doubt he thinks highly of Shaq's defense. We will see though.

Definitely, like your analysis. I went back through the video and see he also mentioned the fact that Kareem's kickouts while helpful perhaps were not in the correct era to get the most value because there was no 3 point line. And unfortunately it seems like this lowered the value of Kareem's creation just a bit because the value of the shots he was creating were just a bit less valuable.

I also went back through Kareem's Backpicks profile and see that peak for peak on that end he rates Kareem higher than Shaq on defense (he mentions it at the very end of the article at point 9). However, assuming his evaluations haven't changed, it seems like he believes Shaq's peak 0 and peak D happened at the same time, while as he hypothesizes in the video, Kareem peaked on D with the Bucks and then peaked on O with the Lakers a few years later.

That's why I don't like looking at raw creation stats (which Ben created by the way). They are certainly helpful (much more than raw assists) but it can't be compared across eras. Ben mentioned that Kareem was elite creator for his era, but nobody could touch modern creators with the way basketball was played back in the 1970s.

About offense and defense - it's fair, I also think that Kareem peaked defensively a few seasons before 1977, but it doesn't change the fact that 1977 Kareem was still clearly better defender by anything I've seen from both. We will see though, it'd be exciting for sure.

I expect Bird video to be great by the way. Bird is perfect player for Ben to go deep into detalis, because he was defined by these little things he did on basketball court.

I'm not sure I get the basis for ranking 76-77 better than 71-72. He scored more because he shot more as a Buck, with the same efficiency. His assist % in 72 was pretty similar to 76-77, and the Lakers in 76-77 did have Goodrich, Cazzie Russell, Donnie Freeman - a better group of jump shooters than what the Bucks had. He may have been stronger in 76, which he states, but he was able to get the ball more as a Buck, and when you are the best scorer in the league it's a good thing to get the ball more. I think he was more mobile as a Buck, which may correlate to the strength mentioned. Note the Bucks were 1st or 2nd in team defense all years. His total rebound % was pretty much the same. So I dont see negatives of 72 versus 76.
But bottom line I look at Adjusted Shooting on B-Ref, and 71-72 is 913 versus 595 for 76-77, so 318 points, about 2 a game.
Even more, 71-72 had Reed, Wilt, and Thurmond (his nemesis) as top line defenders, versus 77 having Walton, so he did this against better top line defenders.

[freethedevil]

I'm not sure how reliable these are because I found them on twitter but apparently these are Ben's raw SRS impact numbers from his backpicks series. I believe they're stuck behind a paywall on his website as his +/- valuation model. Idk if there's a formula behind these or if it's just his own personal estimates but these are the highest 5 year peaks.

Tier 1: GOAT Level Peak (7+)

LeBron James (7.25)
Michael Jordan (7.00)

Tier 2: All-Time Level Peak (6.0-6.75)

Shaquille O'Neal (6.25)
Hakeem Olajuwon (6.25)
Tim Duncan (6.25)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6.00)
Bill Russell (6.00)

Tier 3: MVP Level Peak (5.0-5.75)

Magic Johnson (5.75)
Larry Bird (5.75)
Steph Curry (5.75)
David Robinson (5.75)
Wilt Chamberlain (5.50)
Kevin Garnett (5.50)
Jerry West (5.50)
Kobe Bryant (5.50)
Kevin Durant (5.25)
Oscar Robertson (5.25)

Assuming these are accurate, I'm very surprised to not see Steph Curry as a Tier 1 (and not even a high Tier 2). I'll be curious to watch his video on Curry because I would have thought that he would have been an easy Tier 1 for GOAT peak.

i thougt 17 curry crossed the +6 treshold for ben?

Also pretty sure KG's +srs is like +6.5

[freethedevil]

Kareem video is up on Youtube now.

Watch on YouTube

So prime Kareem, too k a 30 team to 50....

Well that's dissapointing.

Pretty sure ben had Pelicans davis providing similar lift.


Also I guess we can retire blocks as a useful defensive statistic.

[70sFan]

Definitely, like your analysis. I went back through the video and see he also mentioned the fact that Kareem's kickouts while helpful perhaps were not in the correct era to get the most value because there was no 3 point line. And unfortunately it seems like this lowered the value of Kareem's creation just a bit because the value of the shots he was creating were just a bit less valuable.

I also went back through Kareem's Backpicks profile and see that peak for peak on that end he rates Kareem higher than Shaq on defense (he mentions it at the very end of the article at point 9). However, assuming his evaluations haven't changed, it seems like he believes Shaq's peak 0 and peak D happened at the same time, while as he hypothesizes in the video, Kareem peaked on D with the Bucks and then peaked on O with the Lakers a few years later.

That's why I don't like looking at raw creation stats (which Ben created by the way). They are certainly helpful (much more than raw assists) but it can't be compared across eras. Ben mentioned that Kareem was elite creator for his era, but nobody could touch modern creators with the way basketball was played back in the 1970s.

About offense and defense - it's fair, I also think that Kareem peaked defensively a few seasons before 1977, but it doesn't change the fact that 1977 Kareem was still clearly better defender by anything I've seen from both. We will see though, it'd be exciting for sure.

I expect Bird video to be great by the way. Bird is perfect player for Ben to go deep into detalis, because he was defined by these little things he did on basketball court.

I'm not sure I get the basis for ranking 76-77 better than 71-72. He scored more because he shot more as a Buck, with the same efficiency. His assist % in 72 was pretty similar to 76-77, and the Lakers in 76-77 did have Goodrich, Cazzie Russell, Donnie Freeman - a better group of jump shooters than what the Bucks had. He may have been stronger in 76, which he states, but he was able to get the ball more as a Buck, and when you are the best scorer in the league it's a good thing to get the ball more. I think he was more mobile as a Buck, which may correlate to the strength mentioned. Note the Bucks were 1st or 2nd in team defense all years. His total rebound % was pretty much the same. So I dont see negatives of 72 versus 76.
But bottom line I look at Adjusted Shooting on B-Ref, and 71-72 is 913 versus 595 for 76-77, so 318 points, about 2 a game.
Even more, 71-72 had Reed, Wilt, and Thurmond (his nemesis) as top line defenders, versus 77 having Walton, so he did this against better top line defenders.

It's his skillset being a bit more refined. You may disagree of course, but I look more at ability than raw production.

It doesn't change the fact that I view 1972 Kareem as a GOAT-level player as well, so it's not like there is a huge gap between them.

[DQuinn1575]

That's why I don't like looking at raw creation stats (which Ben created by the way). They are certainly helpful (much more than raw assists) but it can't be compared across eras. Ben mentioned that Kareem was elite creator for his era, but nobody could touch modern creators with the way basketball was played back in the 1970s.

About offense and defense - it's fair, I also think that Kareem peaked defensively a few seasons before 1977, but it doesn't change the fact that 1977 Kareem was still clearly better defender by anything I've seen from both. We will see though, it'd be exciting for sure.

I expect Bird video to be great by the way. Bird is perfect player for Ben to go deep into detalis, because he was defined by these little things he did on basketball court.

I'm not sure I get the basis for ranking 76-77 better than 71-72. He scored more because he shot more as a Buck, with the same efficiency. His assist % in 72 was pretty similar to 76-77, and the Lakers in 76-77 did have Goodrich, Cazzie Russell, Donnie Freeman - a better group of jump shooters than what the Bucks had. He may have been stronger in 76, which he states, but he was able to get the ball more as a Buck, and when you are the best scorer in the league it's a good thing to get the ball more. I think he was more mobile as a Buck, which may correlate to the strength mentioned. Note the Bucks were 1st or 2nd in team defense all years. His total rebound % was pretty much the same. So I dont see negatives of 72 versus 76.
But bottom line I look at Adjusted Shooting on B-Ref, and 71-72 is 913 versus 595 for 76-77, so 318 points, about 2 a game.
Even more, 71-72 had Reed, Wilt, and Thurmond (his nemesis) as top line defenders, versus 77 having Walton, so he did this against better top line defenders.

It's his skillset being a bit more refined. You may disagree of course, but I look more at ability than raw production.

It doesn't change the fact that I view 1972 Kareem as a GOAT-level player as well, so it's not like there is a huge gap between them.

His game may be more refined, but he also had a higher starting point than virtually anyone. He came into the league having lost only 5 games in 7 years while winning 3 New York CIty championships, playing a tough regiional high school schedule, beating the defending national champs with his Frosh team, then losing 2 college games- one while injured in the Game of the Century, the other a slowdown game. Heck his 3 losses include maybe the most famed high school game ever and maybe the most famed regular season college game ever. He was coached by a great high school coach, and a true legendary college coach in Coach Wooden.
So his skills might be better, but we wind up measuring with numbers, and i'm not sure what numbers make 76-77 look better than 71-72 - or is it a function of the project starting in 77?

[70sFan]

I'm not sure I get the basis for ranking 76-77 better than 71-72. He scored more because he shot more as a Buck, with the same efficiency. His assist % in 72 was pretty similar to 76-77, and the Lakers in 76-77 did have Goodrich, Cazzie Russell, Donnie Freeman - a better group of jump shooters than what the Bucks had. He may have been stronger in 76, which he states, but he was able to get the ball more as a Buck, and when you are the best scorer in the league it's a good thing to get the ball more. I think he was more mobile as a Buck, which may correlate to the strength mentioned. Note the Bucks were 1st or 2nd in team defense all years. His total rebound % was pretty much the same. So I dont see negatives of 72 versus 76.
But bottom line I look at Adjusted Shooting on B-Ref, and 71-72 is 913 versus 595 for 76-77, so 318 points, about 2 a game.
Even more, 71-72 had Reed, Wilt, and Thurmond (his nemesis) as top line defenders, versus 77 having Walton, so he did this against better top line defenders.

It's his skillset being a bit more refined. You may disagree of course, but I look more at ability than raw production.

It doesn't change the fact that I view 1972 Kareem as a GOAT-level player as well, so it's not like there is a huge gap between them.

His game may be more refined, but he also had a higher starting point than virtually anyone. He came into the league having lost only 5 games in 7 years while winning 3 New York CIty championships, playing a tough regiional high school schedule, beating the defending national champs with his Frosh team, then losing 2 college games- one while injured in the Game of the Century, the other a slowdown game. Heck his 3 losses include maybe the most famed high school game ever and maybe the most famed regular season college game ever. He was coached by a great high school coach, and a true legendary college coach in Coach Wooden.
So his skills might be better, but we wind up measuring with numbers, and i'm not sure what numbers make 76-77 look better than 71-72 - or is it a function of the project starting in 77?

Ben definitely uses only seasons after the merger, that's why Kareem is at 1977-79 here.

[PistolPeteJR]

I just want to say that I just watched Kareem video and even though I and Ben probably don't agree with our conclusion, it's excellent breakdown. I won't talk about details, but it's definitely worth watching

I think Taylor has to address (ideally solve) the injury effects a player can have on his +/- driven numbers. Walton's wowyr is skyrocketed by the fact that Walton missed so many games. The similar thing applies for Garnett in Boston.

Taylor mentioned that Abdul-Jabbar having to carry such an offensive load did not help with his defensive efforts. But he talked about it too short, it almost looked like he just brushed it off quickly and kept on stating what could've been done different and/or better. Also, he failed to mention that the Lakers did not have great defensive help / construction either. It wasn't just on offense.
I want to believe that Taylor managed to get his hands on the '70s games more than I did and he watched way more than me. But it feels like he didn't. I'm saying this because he points out the early '70s as Abdul-Jabbar's defensive peak but doesn't mention why.

He mentioned that his defensive peak was during his tenure in Milwaukee due to younger legs.

There are some possessions on the video Taylor basically criticize Abdul-Jabbar for not being more stationary / not holding his ground and being more reactionary / twitchy. Abdul-Jabbar did not do those things while playing next to Dandridge. He chose to keep his feet solidify his position, not being reactionary. When he got to LA in '75, after the All-Star break, Abdul-Jabbar started to become more reactionary to a possible pass to a cutting player or a spot up shooter because the best thing that could prevent those passes was his wingspan. Not the perimeter defense the Lakers had. You can see that Abdul-Jabbar becoming more stationary once again with Jamaal Wilkes presence in '78-79 season.

To Ben's point, too stationary though, particularly as a post defender, where he shows that he tried to avoid banging and allowed for just enough space for the post player to get just enough room; due to his length, there was some grace there for him as a defender to still affect the shot, but it was not good practice defensively and did cost him and his team.

His points about Abdul-Jabbar's off-ball movements of his man were so on point though. That's the thing what separated Abdul-Jabbar from defensive bigs like Ewing and Robinson.

I also think he could do better job at explaining Abdul-Jabbar's rebounding performance. He's not wrong or inaccurate. It's just that Abdul-Jabbar was able to go toe to toe with Wilt Chamberlain and Moses Malone and he clearly outrebounded any other C matchups he had in the playoffs in the '70s. It's like prime Duncan scoring 21 per game in a regular season game 25+ per game after playoffs 1st round. He could do it on a more regular basis, he didn't. But he still did when it was necessary.

I agree that it was an excellent breakdown. These are the points I think Taylor could've done slightly better but it's already more and better than good.