McBubbles wrote:Also, you guys have gotta stop using regular season nunbers to justify why the team is actually fine as it is. There are players that are good in the regular season, players that are good in the post season and players that are good in both. Pretty much every single person on the team not named LeBron, AD, KCP or Caruso is a regular season player that is either extremely exploitable in a match up or just not resilient / consistent enough come playoffs, so in my mind the regular season nunbers pre injury or 21-6 is irrelevant. Dennis, Harrell, Kuzma, Gasol, Markieff and Drummond come to mind. Even regardless of fitting next to your superstar players, something which half of the players listed do not, they just suck ass talent wise and cannot produce come post season.
Speaking of fit though, players that provide non AD rim protection (or just rim presence in general actually), secondary playmaking AND **** SHOOTING are needed. Literally if nothing else, just some shooting for the love of god. This team being league average from 3 would have gotten them out the first round. This team being THEIR PEDESTRIAN REGULAR SEASON AVERAGE, 21st ranked 35.3%, would have likely gotten them out of the first round.
I think going 5-5-5-6 actually hurt the team in the long run. It's given the FO and a lot of fans a false sense of confidence in the Lakers blue print. It wasn't just LeBron, AD and great defence. It was Prime (Somehow), Mega Efficient LeBron, Mega Hot Streak AD, Hot Streak Rondo, Hot Streak Markieff and mediocre competition. It took Rondo, Morris and AD mega career high shooting splits just for the Lakers to be the 12th ranked 3 point shooting team in the playoffs at 35.3%. This season the playmaking got worse, shooting got worse, rim protection got worse and the competition got much better, and yet people still convince themselves that this team healthy was a contender because of the pre-injury regular season record.
Everything you say is true, and I too was worried about this, but I was also confident because even with all the positive 90th+ percentile outcomes that the Lakers had going for them, it’s difficult to run though a playoffs having an all time type great NET rating sans garbage time minutes, so even a reduction in outcomes I thought would be good enough with a health AD and James.
—James had that great mega efficiency playing without space as everything was at the rim or a three (70% of his shots) and only 14% from 10-22 feet. He also did most of that not in full gear. I thought he only turned it on full gear for the Nuggets closeout game and games 5 and 6 in the Finals. Before Hill clumsily fell on him, he looked like he could get there again.
—Most worried about AD and Rondo. AD hit 40% from 10-16ft and 55% from 16-22ft primarily on ISO/post up face ups, i.e., offense out of nothing. He wasn’t going to do that again. But I thought he would ameliorate some with by drawing fouls as he’s shown to be capable of and if struggling in a series, I thought he’d go to. He had a great defensive playoffs and I thought that would be replicated.
Rondo...that was most worrying. Literally had his most efficient playoffs ever. Defense was poor but his connection with AD produced high level offense and for the first time, James could sit and leads didn't evaporate as AD+Rondo had the Lakers at a 122.7 ORtg and about +5 NET with James off court. Needless to say, Rondo’s production wasn’t replaced.
—The thing that gave me the most confidence was that the Lakers went the entire season and the entire playoffs last year rarely going to the magic bullet, i.e., the AD/James lineup. It had been super dominant throughout last year and this year (+17 per 100 possessions) and it felt like they could always go to it when needed since AD doesn’t want to plan the 5. But neither James nor Davis were healthy.
—The shooting...it finally caught up with the Lakers. No Morris making threes this year.
Game 6:
Wide open threes: Lakers 5/20, Suns 8/17
Open threes: Lakers 4/12, Suns 8/14
Total: Lakers 9/32, Suns 16/31
Series:
Wide open threes: Lakers 5.7/17.7, Suns 6.3/13.8
Open threes: Lakers 3.3/12.2, Suns 4.2/13.5
Total: Lakers 30.1%, Suns 38.5%
Pretty big gap to overcome if Lebron and AD aren’t going to be able to impose their will on a series. Their “best game” was a 12/35 in game 5 which was just LeBron in the third quarter in a game that was already lost. They didn’t have a single average shooting game in the entire series despite generating better looks in the series.
Both the cracks were always there, but there was reason to be optimistic especially during locked in games n which AD and James we’re healthy when the Lakers suffocated teams.