Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread - 2022 NBA MVP Any thoughts?

[ty 4191]

To be fair, I don't think Jokic is near the player that Shaq is - but that's because he's a lot worse on defense.

What metrics do you use to assess defense in the Databall Era? 1997-2022?

[ty 4191]

On the other hand, I don't think the defensive gap is as big as some may believe. Shaq wasn't bad defender, but he was far from all-timer even at his absolute peak and he rarely reached his 2000 level throughout his career.

Same question for you, Amigo. Which metrics are the best for assessing defense, in the aggregate, since 1996-1997?

Read: "How do you know Jokic this year is worse than Shaq defensively?"

[70sFan]

On the other hand, I don't think the defensive gap is as big as some may believe. Shaq wasn't bad defender, but he was far from all-timer even at his absolute peak and he rarely reached his 2000 level throughout his career.

Same question for you, Amigo. Which metrics are the best for assessing defense, in the aggregate, since 1996-1997?

Read: "How do you know Jokic this year is worse than Shaq defensively?"

I try to evaluate defense by the combination of team success (including raw on/off), impact metrics, tracking data and eye test. I've tracked over 30 games from Shaq's peak and I think I got decent idea of who he was and who he wasn't on defensive end. We also have impact metrics for him that don't view him as an ATG defender (but ATG offensive player).

With Jokic, I'm uncertain right now because he never had a good defensive postseason run and I'm not sure how much he improved on that end this year. I still see concerning patterns in his defense, though they seem to be harder to exploit - he indeed works harder than ever on that end. I guess we'll have to wait for the playoffs, for now I'd give peak Shaq slight edge - but anything less than 100% motivated Shaq is probably less impactful on defense than Jokic is right now.

[ty 4191]

On the other hand, I don't think the defensive gap is as big as some may believe. Shaq wasn't bad defender, but he was far from all-timer even at his absolute peak and he rarely reached his 2000 level throughout his career.

Same question for you, Amigo. Which metrics are the best for assessing defense, in the aggregate, since 1996-1997?

Read: "How do you know Jokic this year is worse than Shaq defensively?"

I try to evaluate defense by the combination of team success (including raw on/off), impact metrics, tracking data.

Do you have specific links to the metrics you use? I'm just learning about all this stuff, and I'm here to learn!

Thanks in advance!

[70sFan]

Same question for you, Amigo. Which metrics are the best for assessing defense, in the aggregate, since 1996-1997?

Read: "How do you know Jokic this year is worse than Shaq defensively?"

I try to evaluate defense by the combination of team success (including raw on/off), impact metrics, tracking data.

Do you have specific links to the metrics you use? I'm just learning about all this stuff, and I'm here to learn!

Thanks in advance!

Nothing fancy - DRAPM and other versions of defensive PM, raw on/off, team metrics, shot defense data available on NBA.com. I'm trying to stay away from boxscore composites like DBPM or DWS though.

[Peregrine01]

I agree that there are a lot more to offense than scoring one on one, but that's not what makes Shaq so special. Shaq wasn't nearly as unstoppable as an isolation scorer as some believe. His strengths were more related to his off-ball game, ability to create inside shots, offensive rebounding, drawing tons of fouls (including non-shooting ones) and his gravity that created so much space for his teammates. That's what makes Shaq so amazing, not his one on one game.

I'm in full agreement on all the points you made but I don't think he separates himself from Jokic in all these other offensive categories, sans the foul-drawing. This is not to slight how great Shaq was because we might well be watching a player that ends up in offensive GOAT conversations.

To be fair, I don't think Jokic is near the player that Shaq is - but that's because he's a lot worse on defense.

He definitely separates himself from Jokic in terms of offensive rebounding and inside gravity though. Nobody defends Jokic in the post the way they defended Shaq - partially because of eras but also because Jokic can't establish deep position as consistently as Shaq.

On the other hand, I don't think the defensive gap is as big as some may believe. Shaq wasn't bad defender, but he was far from all-timer even at his absolute peak and he rarely reached his 2000 level throughout his career.

Re: offensive rebounding. Jokic is no slouch here. He's been top 5 in points off putbacks the last two seasons even though he plays on the perimeter a lot more than the other bigs listed with him. On sealing post position, agreed.

Re: defense. Have to disagree here. Shaq was a statue and his effort level waned but he was a deterrent at the rim in a way that Jokic can just never be. And the defensive value of a rim-deterrent/paint clogger then is a lot higher than it is now.

[70sFan]

Re: offensive rebounding. Jokic is no slouch here. He's been top 5 in points off putbacks the last two seasons even though he plays on the perimeter a lot more than the other bigs listed with him. On sealing post position, agreed.

He's definitely no slouch, but I don't think he's on Shaq's level here.

Re: defense. Have to disagree here. Shaq was a statue and his effort level waned but he was a deterrent at the rim in a way that Jokic can just never be. And the defensive value of a rim-deterrent/paint clogger then is a lot higher than it is now.

The problem is that Shaq was also inconsistent as a rim protector. He also had poor fundamentals in terms of contesting shots, sometimes missing them by a large amount. I could provide some examples, but I don't want to destroy this thread. You can create a new one if you are interested

[Peregrine01]

To be fair, I don't think Jokic is near the player that Shaq is - but that's because he's a lot worse on defense.

What metrics do you use to assess defense in the Databall Era? 1997-2022?

DRAPM data that others have compiled. But more importantly, eye-test. I see Jokic conceding a lot more baskets at the rim than Shaq did. Granted, the paint was also a lot more clogged then than it was today.

[Doctor MJ]

As we talk about Jokic vs Shaq on defense it has to be said:

Shaq absolutely struggled defending against perimeter pick & roll switches, and offenses back then did far, far less of this than offenses do today.

I think it's basically clear that if Shaq let himself gain weight today the way he did back then he'd be roasted by defenses considerably worse than what a team can do to Jokic right now.

I'm not saying Shaq couldn't stay slimmer if he needed to necessarily, and I'll completely agree that Shaq was more impactful on defense when he played than Jokic is now, but when people talk about Jokic as being too slow defensively without ever thinking about why it was Shaq was able to get by as he ballooned way past 300 pounds, to me their missing the most real part of the conversation.

These guys aren't impact machines. They are guys with weaknesses that can be exploited, and objectively, compared to today's game, offenses back then tended to do an awful job of exploiting a guy like that Shaq.

[70sFan]

As we talk about Jokic vs Shaq on defense it has to be said:

Shaq absolutely struggled defending against perimeter pick & roll switches, and offenses back then did far, far less of this than offenses do today.

I think it's basically clear that if Shaq let himself gain weight today the way he did back then he'd be roasted by defenses considerably worse than what a team can do to Jokic right now.

I'm not saying Shaq couldn't stay slimmer if he needed to necessarily, and I'll completely agree that Shaq was more impactful on defense when he played than Jokic is now, but when people talk about Jokic as being too slow defensively without ever thinking about why it was Shaq was able to get by as he ballooned way past 300 pounds, to me their missing the most real part of the conversation.

These guys aren't impact machines. They are guys with weaknesses that can be exploited, and objectively, compared to today's game, offenses back then tended to do an awful job of exploiting a guy like that Shaq.

At the same time, we shouldn't be overly critical of Shaq, just because he maximized his potential within the framework he played in. I don't think we'd see Shaq putting up additional 30 lbs of muscle do deal with Greg Ostertag under the basket nowadays.

It goes both ways - all players are in part products of their times. There is no era when Shaq would be elite P&R defender, but the same thing applies to Jokic.

[Doctor MJ]

As we talk about Jokic vs Shaq on defense it has to be said:

Shaq absolutely struggled defending against perimeter pick & roll switches, and offenses back then did far, far less of this than offenses do today.

I think it's basically clear that if Shaq let himself gain weight today the way he did back then he'd be roasted by defenses considerably worse than what a team can do to Jokic right now.

I'm not saying Shaq couldn't stay slimmer if he needed to necessarily, and I'll completely agree that Shaq was more impactful on defense when he played than Jokic is now, but when people talk about Jokic as being too slow defensively without ever thinking about why it was Shaq was able to get by as he ballooned way past 300 pounds, to me their missing the most real part of the conversation.

These guys aren't impact machines. They are guys with weaknesses that can be exploited, and objectively, compared to today's game, offenses back then tended to do an awful job of exploiting a guy like that Shaq.

At the same time, we shouldn't be overly critical of Shaq, just because he maximized his potential within the framework he played in. I don't think we'd see Shaq putting up additional 30 lbs of muscle do deal with Greg Ostertag under the basket nowadays.

It goes both ways - all players are in part products of their times. There is no era when Shaq would be elite P&R defender, but the same thing applies to Jokic.

Completely agree. I say what I do not to bash Shaq, but to say that it's important to really think in more granular detail than just what box score, +/-, and reputation implies holistically about how good a player was - and to do so in defense of Jokic who is clearly suffering from people "knowing" that he's just plain bad at defense. Nope, he's got strengths and weaknesses that he's continuing to improve on, and it's understanding those specific characteristics that's what's really real about the basketball in question.

[eminence]

Anybody have any minorish (exclude their 3 max sorts) trade ideas for them to boost their bench? If they could get their bench to just below mediocre instead of outright terrible they could easily be a +3-4 team even prior to Murray coming back.

JaMychal Green potential matching. Maybe Barton in the right deal. Really only have some 2nds for value, so probably looking at guys other teams don't really want for whatever reason. Wouldn't move Gordon or Morris in most deals I can imagine. Nobody else really makes any money, but obviously if they can get a decent guy on a minimum for some 2nds that'd be worth considering.

[70sFan]

As we talk about Jokic vs Shaq on defense it has to be said:

Shaq absolutely struggled defending against perimeter pick & roll switches, and offenses back then did far, far less of this than offenses do today.

I think it's basically clear that if Shaq let himself gain weight today the way he did back then he'd be roasted by defenses considerably worse than what a team can do to Jokic right now.

I'm not saying Shaq couldn't stay slimmer if he needed to necessarily, and I'll completely agree that Shaq was more impactful on defense when he played than Jokic is now, but when people talk about Jokic as being too slow defensively without ever thinking about why it was Shaq was able to get by as he ballooned way past 300 pounds, to me their missing the most real part of the conversation.

These guys aren't impact machines. They are guys with weaknesses that can be exploited, and objectively, compared to today's game, offenses back then tended to do an awful job of exploiting a guy like that Shaq.

At the same time, we shouldn't be overly critical of Shaq, just because he maximized his potential within the framework he played in. I don't think we'd see Shaq putting up additional 30 lbs of muscle do deal with Greg Ostertag under the basket nowadays.

It goes both ways - all players are in part products of their times. There is no era when Shaq would be elite P&R defender, but the same thing applies to Jokic.

Completely agree. I say what I do not to bash Shaq, but to say that it's important to really think in more granular detail than just what box score, +/-, and reputation implies holistically about how good a player was - and to do so in defense of Jokic who is clearly suffering from people "knowing" that he's just plain bad at defense. Nope, he's got strengths and weaknesses that he's continuing to improve on, and it's understanding those specific characteristics that's what's really real about the basketball in question.

I 100% agree, that's why I think it's critical to actually track defensive tendencies and analyze the tape when you try to evaluate defense. I also agree that anyone who still calls Jokic a bad defender has no idea what he/she is talking about. He's definitely positive defender and he has been improving steadly on that end. I don't see him ever reaching DPOY level, but he has been doing excellent job at maximizing his potential on that end.

[70sFan]

Anybody have any minorish (exclude their 3 max sorts) trade ideas for them to boost their bench? If they could get their bench to just below mediocre instead of outright terrible they could easily be a +3-4 team even prior to Murray coming back.

JaMychal Green potential matching. Maybe Barton in the right deal. Really only have some 2nds for value, so probably looking at guys other teams don't really want for whatever reason. Wouldn't move Gordon or Morris in most deals I can imagine. Nobody else really makes any money, but obviously if they can get a decent guy on a minimum for some 2nds that'd be worth considering.

They have to get at least mediocre backup bigman. Their defense completely collapses with Green at center and undersized useless guards on perimeter.

[eminence]

Anybody have any minorish (exclude their 3 max sorts) trade ideas for them to boost their bench? If they could get their bench to just below mediocre instead of outright terrible they could easily be a +3-4 team even prior to Murray coming back.

JaMychal Green potential matching. Maybe Barton in the right deal. Really only have some 2nds for value, so probably looking at guys other teams don't really want for whatever reason. Wouldn't move Gordon or Morris in most deals I can imagine. Nobody else really makes any money, but obviously if they can get a decent guy on a minimum for some 2nds that'd be worth considering.

They have to get at least mediocre backup bigman. Their defense completely collapses with Green at center and undersized useless guards on perimeter.

Something around Green for Boucher?

[70sFan]

Anybody have any minorish (exclude their 3 max sorts) trade ideas for them to boost their bench? If they could get their bench to just below mediocre instead of outright terrible they could easily be a +3-4 team even prior to Murray coming back.

JaMychal Green potential matching. Maybe Barton in the right deal. Really only have some 2nds for value, so probably looking at guys other teams don't really want for whatever reason. Wouldn't move Gordon or Morris in most deals I can imagine. Nobody else really makes any money, but obviously if they can get a decent guy on a minimum for some 2nds that'd be worth considering.

They have to get at least mediocre backup bigman. Their defense completely collapses with Green at center and undersized useless guards on perimeter.

Something around Green for Boucher?

Haven't seen much of Toronto this year, but he can't be worse than Green at that role, right?

[eminence]

I'd certainly hope not.

[ty 4191]

If the Nuggets were at full strength, this projects them to be the second best team in the playoffs this year.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/

Also, they have the among the 3 weakest average opponents in the NBA from here on in.

http://powerrankingsguru.com/nba/strength-of-schedule.php

Thoughts?

Also, do they have any chance of getting through the Suns in the playoffs, at full strength?

[ty 4191]

........

[ty 4191]

By the way, do you use the same logic for Wilt, who couldn't shoot as well and didn't have sophisticated offensive style either? Do you think he wouldn't be MVP-level player?

I think Wilt had a much more sophisticated offensive style and offensive repertoire than Shaq. He scored most of his points early career by having the team come down, pass the ball in, and taking a 15+ foot bank shot off the glass. Can you imagine Shaq's FG% shooting delicate, extremely difficult fade away 15+ footers for 20+ of his shots a game? Wilt also had a gorgeous finger roll, an excellent pull up shot, and could drive and back players in at least as well as anyone in that era. The free throw issue- which was purely psychological- would be fixed by a Sports Psychologist today.

I hope you don't put me in this group ot "detractors and haters". I really like Jokic, more than Shaq for sure. I just try to be objective, that's all.

I don't think you're a Jokic hater at all, but most people here seem either totally indifferent to, or straight up disdainful of, the greatest player on the planet the last 2 seasons. It's really quite strange. Why?

And, I still contend that Giannis is peaking higher than Shaq ever did. And he's more skilled than Shaq was. Send me a PM if you're interested in not derailing this thread, and convincing me otherwise.