RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #1 - 1990-91 Michael Jordan

[MyUniBroDavis]

Here’s the crux of my issue

2015: 111.06 12 games vs 105.5
2016: 115.32, 6 games vs 104.2

The range for where you can evaluate lebron defensively based on evidence is quite high. If you want to be unreasonable, you can say in the 18 games without lebron in 2015 and 2016 (while he was trying on D in the rs) their defense plummeted to bottom of the league, whereas with him they were closer to the top 10 range, with a caveat that he was a bit hurt in 2015 despite this.

This would pretty firmly put him at the top tier end of defensive impact, and then you can use the synergy data to back it up because his defensive synergy profile is absolutely absurd

I don’t agree with this argument at all, I have his regular season defense better than RS Jordan’s, but not by as much as the offensive gap is

Otoh, is this conclusion more unreasonable than, saying Jordan was at a very high level that none of the evidences (including the one kinder to him) really support because his contemporaries were high on him? I don’t think so

It takes more of a leap in logic to say Jordan’s defense is as good as Lebrons playoff defense than it does to say lebrons regular season defense reaches the heights of the all time great defenders

I don’t think either of those leaps are very justified

[mdonnelly1989]

1991 MJ - From top to bottom on both sides of the ball just absolutely dominant.

2000 Lakers - I think Shaq was slightly more dominant that year than Lebrons 2013-2014 season.

2013-14 - Lebron. -> That was his most efficient year, plus he was defensive MVP candidate.

[Squared2020]

A great question to be asked.

So first, broadly: You better believe I take this data seriously when I get access to it. Getting access to the 76er dataset (thank to you I believe!) was eye-opening about Dr. J, and it has lowered his standing on my lists.

I will zag back in the other direction to emphasize that such data doesn't remove the end-accomplishments of the players involved. If the team just keeps winning when you're out there running the show all the way to the chip, well, that's your job. Beating the other team by as many points as possible, by contrast, is not the goal

But lastly:

I'm a bit surprised people (because someone else mentioned this possibility recently) are talking as if we have no data along these lines. It's not a question, for example, whether Jordan ever had a regular season +/- north of Kobe's best, because we have data from Jordan's last 2 years in Chicago, and that already settles the matter.

We also have access to regular season +/- data back through '93-94, and that gives us enough so that we already know that Jordan led his team in +/- at least as many times as Kobe did - Kobe did it 3 times in his career, Jordan did it in '95-96, '96-97 & '97-98.

So yeah, while it's within the realm of possibility that Kobe-like tendencies will result in +/- data underrating Jordan's total contribution, there's nothing like the "Whoa, Kobe really doesn't look that impactful by these metrics?" thing I detect for Jordan.

Great points! Using CORP +/- (not perfect but an easily accessible and stable metric with offensive/defensive splits), we find: peak defense MJ had +1.25 on defense, overall peak MJ had +1 on defense, peak defense Kobe had +1–0.5 on defense, and overall peak Kobe had +0.25 on defense. Dropping peak MJ from +1 on defense to +0.5 or +0.25 would be a loss of 0.5–0.75 points of value, which would take him beneath LeBron, Shaq, and possibly Hakeem into the next tier of players in that metric.

Also, re: the discussion on early RAPM estimates pre-97, it's certainly possible that there's systematic bias in the games saved and sampled, but at the bottom of each RAPM article they do include how the team performed in that sample relative to the season, which gives us at least a little more context.

For example, in the 1991 RAPM estimates (https://squared2020.com/2021/09/11/1990-1991-nba-rapm/), we have 38 regular season games where the Bulls were on pace to underperform their full-season results by ~3 games. That's a small difference, though it's hard to know how MJ's individual performance in these games compares to his full season performance. Perhaps someone could try finding some other estimate (BPM, win shares, whatever we have) for these games to compare to the full season? FWIW, the Celtics in 85 greatly underperformed in the games sampled for RAPM (they were on pace for 10 more loses in the sampled games vs their true regular season record), the Lakers in 85 also slightly underperformed, and the samples measured for superstars in 1970 so far are absolutely too small to take anything away from them.

I think that guy tweeted out an updated 1991 RAPM estimate

Read on Twitter

Seeing this thread prompted me to update the 1991 page. It's up to 294 games now: https://squared2020.com/2021/09/11/1990-1991-nba-rapm/

[LukaTheGOAT]

Question for people choosing MJ -

If we had data demonstrating that MJ at his best had a comparable defensive impact (in terms of DRAPM, or defense on/off the court, or other data) to Kobe, how would it impact your selection of his early 90s seasons as GOAT peak?

A great question to be asked.

So first, broadly: You better believe I take this data seriously when I get access to it. Getting access to the 76er dataset (thank to you I believe!) was eye-opening about Dr. J, and it has lowered his standing on my lists.

I will zag back in the other direction to emphasize that such data doesn't remove the end-accomplishments of the players involved. If the team just keeps winning when you're out there running the show all the way to the chip, well, that's your job. Beating the other team by as many points as possible, by contrast, is not the goal

But lastly:

I'm a bit surprised people (because someone else mentioned this possibility recently) are talking as if we have no data along these lines. It's not a question, for example, whether Jordan ever had a regular season +/- north of Kobe's best, because we have data from Jordan's last 2 years in Chicago, and that already settles the matter.

We also have access to regular season +/- data back through '93-94, and that gives us enough so that we already know that Jordan led his team in +/- at least as many times as Kobe did - Kobe did it 3 times in his career, Jordan did it in '95-96, '96-97 & '97-98.

So yeah, while it's within the realm of possibility that Kobe-like tendencies will result in +/- data underrating Jordan's total contribution, there's nothing like the "Whoa, Kobe really doesn't look that impactful by these metrics?" thing I detect for Jordan.

Great points! Using CORP +/- (not perfect but an easily accessible and stable metric with offensive/defensive splits), we find: peak defense MJ had +1.25 on defense, overall peak MJ had +1 on defense, peak defense Kobe had +1–0.5 on defense, and overall peak Kobe had +0.25 on defense. Dropping peak MJ from +1 on defense to +0.5 or +0.25 would be a loss of 0.5–0.75 points of value, which would take him beneath LeBron, Shaq, and possibly Hakeem into the next tier of players in that metric.

Also, re: the discussion on early RAPM estimates pre-97, it's certainly possible that there's systematic bias in the games saved and sampled, but at the bottom of each RAPM article they do include how the team performed in that sample relative to the season, which gives us at least a little more context.

For example, in the 1991 RAPM estimates (https://squared2020.com/2021/09/11/1990-1991-nba-rapm/), we have 38 regular season games where the Bulls were on pace to underperform their full-season results by ~3 games. That's a small difference, though it's hard to know how MJ's individual performance in these games compares to his full season performance. Perhaps someone could try finding some other estimate (BPM, win shares, whatever we have) for these games to compare to the full season? FWIW, the Celtics in 85 greatly underperformed in the games sampled for RAPM (they were on pace for 10 more loses in the sampled games vs their true regular season record), the Lakers in 85 also slightly underperformed, and the samples measured for superstars in 1970 so far are absolutely too small to take anything away from them.

[homecourtloss]

Great points! Using CORP +/- (not perfect but an easily accessible and stable metric with offensive/defensive splits), we find: peak defense MJ had +1.25 on defense, overall peak MJ had +1 on defense, peak defense Kobe had +1–0.5 on defense, and overall peak Kobe had +0.25 on defense. Dropping peak MJ from +1 on defense to +0.5 or +0.25 would be a loss of 0.5–0.75 points of value, which would take him beneath LeBron, Shaq, and possibly Hakeem into the next tier of players in that metric.

Also, re: the discussion on early RAPM estimates pre-97, it's certainly possible that there's systematic bias in the games saved and sampled, but at the bottom of each RAPM article they do include how the team performed in that sample relative to the season, which gives us at least a little more context.

For example, in the 1991 RAPM estimates (https://squared2020.com/2021/09/11/1990-1991-nba-rapm/), we have 38 regular season games where the Bulls were on pace to underperform their full-season results by ~3 games. That's a small difference, though it's hard to know how MJ's individual performance in these games compares to his full season performance. Perhaps someone could try finding some other estimate (BPM, win shares, whatever we have) for these games to compare to the full season? FWIW, the Celtics in 85 greatly underperformed in the games sampled for RAPM (they were on pace for 10 more loses in the sampled games vs their true regular season record), the Lakers in 85 also slightly underperformed, and the samples measured for superstars in 1970 so far are absolutely too small to take anything away from them.

I think that guy tweeted out an updated 1991 RAPM estimate

Read on Twitter

Seeing this thread prompted me to update the 1991 page. It's up to 294 games now: https://squared2020.com/2021/09/11/1990-1991-nba-rapm/

Every time Terry Porter impact stats come up, they make him look better and better.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I think that guy tweeted out an updated 1991 RAPM estimate

Read on Twitter

Seeing this thread prompted me to update the 1991 page. It's up to 294 games now: https://squared2020.com/2021/09/11/1990-1991-nba-rapm/

Every time Terry Porter impact stats come up, they make him look better and better.

I wonder if Porter is a sneaky pick for maybe a top 40-50 peak ever?

There is a good argument at his peak, he was a better player in the PS than the RS.

Terry Porter in the playoffs from 1990-92 (Inflation Adjusted per 75):

•) 20.0 points
•) 3.4 rebounds
•) 6.9 assists (2.4 tov)
•) 1.2 steals
•) +9.7 opp. adjusted rTS%
•) 41.4 3P% (3.9 3PAs)

Also you don't want to over-index on matched, but he performed REALLY well against John Stockton, one of the premier PGs of his era.

[MyUniBroDavis]

So I do have to ask

Now that we have a reasonable amount of RAPM data for his season + the season where he left both suggesting that in that 91-93 era MJ was more of a decent defensive wing than an all time great perimeter defender, isn’t this significant?

I think if it was just one or another it’d be noise, and this doesn’t really take him out from second spot for me

But I feel at least with the people I’ve engaged with the main thing between MJ and Bron peak vs peak is the defensive gap larger than the offensive gap, and that the defensive gap isn’t as large as I’m purporting (playoff bron ofc).

Now that the available evidence seems to imply the gap might be larger than I thought too, doesn’t that change thing significantly?

Im still in the MJ is an elite defensive wing camp, but like, I feel like for any other player in nba history

If we had

- a season without them with a reasonable amount of roster turnover where the defense slightly improved
- NPI Rapm data showing their defense as closer to decent than all time elite at their position

We would pretty quickly question our assumptions about their impact defensively?

[Doctor MJ]

So I do have to ask

Now that we have a reasonable amount of RAPM data for his season + the season where he left both suggesting that in that 91-93 era MJ was more of a decent defensive wing than an all time great perimeter defender, isn’t this significant?

I think if it was just one or another it’d be noise, and this doesn’t really take him out from second spot for me

But I feel at least with the people I’ve engaged with the main thing between MJ and Bron peak vs peak is the defensive gap larger than the offensive gap, and that the defensive gap isn’t as large as I’m purporting (playoff bron ofc).

Now that the available evidence seems to imply the gap might be larger than I thought too, doesn’t that change thing significantly?

Im still in the MJ is an elite defensive wing camp, but like, I feel like for any other player in nba history

If we had

- a season without them with a reasonable amount of roster turnover where the defense slightly improved
- NPI Rapm data showing their defense as closer to decent than all time elite at their position

We would pretty quickly question our assumptions about their impact defensively?

Hmm, maybe I've missed something:

Do we see any data that has Jordan's overall RAPM standing as disappointing?

If so, I'd appreciate if you could elaborate.

If not, then I'd guess what you're pointing to that the Offense vs Defense split is just overwhelmingly offensive for Jordan? Presuming that's the case, I'll just emphasize that I'm very reluctant to take such splits too seriously. Coaches choose who to play around a star based on them in part being able to balance out his limitations. All of this can skew the split that the regression spits out.

To be clear: I'm not dead set on the idea that Jordan must be mega-valuable defensively. It's pretty easy to see how such a thing could be possible with his tendency toward improvisation and gambling. I ain't betting on Jordan turning out to have been overrated defensively personally, but if that's what it turns out, we'll know how it happened.

But I am reluctant to assert that it (the overrating) was definitely happened with what I see here to this point.

[Doctor MJ]

Alright, giving my vote with my explanation for it.

1. Michael Jordan ('90-91)



I have mixed feelings about Jordan nowadays because of what I feel his long shadow has done to the way the basketball world thinks, but of course, that's what happens when you have someone who physically enforced his will all through the offensive and defensive possessions the way Jordan did. I still have more confidence in prime Jordan's ability to thrive and dominate in any situation than I do with anyone else, and that's all there is to it.

Now, when I'm doing this project, while I will be trying to honor players from within their time as my first pass, I can't help but project them into other eras too when comparing them to stars in other eras. Jordan wouldn't top my list if I wasn't confident he's be amazing today...

however, I do still believe that the rise of the 3 means that the value of 2-point scorers goes down. Not hard for me to see him leading a championship team today, but I don't expect he'd stand out the same way today he did back then.

Forced to zero in on the best of Jordan, to me that's when the Big Chief Triangle acid trip gets in full swing before wear and tear start to take hold, so for me that's possibly '89-90, '90-91 or '91-92. Going with the middle year which is also the big breakthrough year.

2. LeBron James ('15-16)



If we factor in physical durability and longevity to physical talent, LeBron is probably the GOAT talent. His body and game have aged so well that there's probably more fruitful comparison to be had comparing LeBron vs LeBron than any other star with himself.

I do think LeBron at any age lacks the motor and every-game intensity edge Jordan had, to say nothing of Jordan's hand size advantage which Jordan made great use of, but it seems like in no matter what stage of LeBron's career you look, he's got an unfair set of strengths.

For me, the debate over which LeBron year settles down to the best years from his first 3 stints: '08-09, '12-13 & '15-16. (Shout outs to '11-12 & '16-17 which are both obvious candidates for his 2nd best year.)

I think it's important not to take '08-09 too lightly. Prior to that Magic series, we were all getting ready to say that LeBron was the best basketball player the world had ever seen. They get upset in that series...but anyone watching it with unbiased eyes will see that that really wasn't about LeBron doing anything wrong. They played a great opponent, and they got cold while the other team got hot. In another universe, the Cavs get to the finals that year at the very least.

I don't think LeBron has ever had another year as impactful as '08-09, and I don't think he deserves to be criticized for the upset loss...nevertheless, after '08-09, we saw LeBron get flummoxed a couple times against strong, smart defenses that in later years, he wouldn't, and defensively, he'd hit a new level in Miami.

I think LeBron was probably at the peak of his powers in Miami. He adapted to work within a scheme based on the talent around him, and he worked his ass off on defense, all while being savvier than he'd been before he left Cleveland the first time. It makes a ton of sense to pick this era of LeBron, however:

A thing we tend to brush aside nowadays as we gush about Spo's genius, is that for all the sophistication of the Heatle team approach, the 2nd stint Cavs had a more effective offense. I think the reality is that in '15-16, LeBron was playing as if in the nexus of a web he'd spun to allow him to be able to make anything happen he could think to make happen, and this made him more effective.

I think that you could argue that the Heat played how they needed to play based on how LeBron/Wade/Bosh worked together, but if you're playing less effectively in a given context than you could in another context, well, it's probably not when you were at the former where you hit your peak.

3. Steph Curry ('16-17)



Obviously I've been thinking a lot about Curry lately. Got myself in a situation where I realized there just aren't many guys I'm comfortable siding with Curry against. The reality at this point is that Curry has essentially dictated the course of the NBA since '14-15, at which time he and his team spearheaded what now can clearly be seen as a new era.

While I'm not making this list simply as a "Who would do better in the current era?" thing, in any comparison with Curry I find it impossible not to ask a similar question...and since Curry has a serious case at this for being the closest thing to an ideal player for the current era, that gives him a candidacy for #1.

In the end, he's behind Jordan & LeBron because I still have more confidence in them in any given basketball situation than I do with Curry. It's possible that in 20 years, there will be many guys doing what Curry does now, but short of the human race going through another massive improvement in diet and environment, Jordan & LeBron have bodies that are just extreme outliers for what the human race seems capable of.

As for which year I'm picking Curry, well it's tough. To me there are 5 candidates to consider: '14-15, '15-16, '16-17 & '20-21 & '21-22.

'14-15 is the year where he gets both MVP and the chip.
'15-16 sees him clearly get a lot better than before, but he plays poorly in the playoffs.
'16-17 sees him playing optimal basketball as the MVP of the greatest team in the history of basketball...but his team is less dependent on him.

'20-21 sees him come back from injury and once again becomes the best player in the world...for part of the year, on a team that can't quite make the playoffs.

'21-22 sees him lead a team to the chip again, looking like he knows all the right buttons to push when he needs to...but he spends majors chunks of the year not shooting very well.

The more I thought about this, the more '16-17 made sense. While it makes sense that if you came to certain conclusions about what Curry fundamentally could and could not do in the previous playoffs, '16-17 was basically doomed to be an experiment that didn't have the potential to yield the necessary result to elevate Curry higher, if you're someone like me who felt that Curry playing worse in the '15-16 playoffs was mostly about Curry playing worse over a particular interval, then '16-17 is something kinda close to flawless.

Now, I don't expect a lot of people will be swayed by anything here and that's okay, but I did want to point out that this idea that the Warriors stopped being great without Durant after Durant came is never what the data told us.

In 3 years, Curry played 168 games with KD, and 31 without.

In the 168 with KD, Curry had an on-court +/- of +15.7 and the Warriors had an SRS Pace of 66.3.
In the 31 without KD, Curry had an on-court +/- of +17.2 and the Warriors had an SRS Pace of 70.0.

KD's a freaking amazing player and undoubtedly helped the Warriors be better against playoff competition than they already were, but it wasn't a fluke in '18-19 when the Warriors beat the Rockets (and Blazers) without him any more than it was a fluke that the Warriors won 7 playoff series in the two years before KD arrived...any more than it was a fluke that the Warriors just won the title again.

Others I was strongly considering:

Wilt, Kareem & Dream.

Not going to say that my next 3 will necessarily be 3 bigs after picking 3 perimeter guys to start, but bigs and smalls are obviously the toughest to compare, and these guys were on my mind on the "bigs" side of things.

I think Wilt's '66-67 is his dream season and the place where he clearly captures the summit of best seasons from his era over Russell. I do think that season demands serious attention...but I also feel like there was something of a decoy effect going on over the entirety of that season. Given that Wilt really ever has won elite team offensive season why he is the fulcrum of his offense, and it happens at a time where opponents are getting used to him not-shooting, this is a situation where it would have been really informative for us to see him do it to the same success again and again.

As is, it's hard for me to have more faith in Wilt than Kareem. Kareem is someone who really did have a super-scalable approach to interior volume scoring, and who in his physical prime had a serious case for being DPOY. I do consider Wilt at his peak to be the better defender and rebounder, to be clear, but I'm not sure that's enough.

And then there's Hakeem Olajuwon, who to me seems to be basically our dream two-way body for a big. His ability to learn and improvise using endless pivoting techniques after having started way, way behind his American counterparts is freaking legendary and I think actually led us to have too HIGH expectations for international players for a couple decades. Had a rogue genius like Olajuwon not emerged in the '80s NBA, the rise of the international tide would have been more gradual and we'd have had less expectations on the Olowokandis and Bargnanis of the world. Olajuwon is basically someone who should have showed up as part of the Giannis/Jokic/Doncic generation, but he arrived way early.

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Shaq, who I used to have higher on a list like this. To be frank: Shaq's getting hurt because there were techniques available in Shaq's time that could have really done a number on the Lakers that just weren't getting used yet. Shaq was in trouble when he got put in the pick & roll - which got him in huge trouble against the Jazz. Nowadays, it'd get him in trouble with everyone and from a much greater distance due to the spacing of the game. To be clear: I think Wilt & Kareem would have somewhat similar issues...but I don't think they'd be as bad.

[DraymondGold]

Hi LukaTheGoat! It looks like you quoted me above and bolded my first sentence, but I don't see any text. Did you mean to? If you're concerned about the stat CORP +/- stat, I don't mean for it to be the be-all-end-all, just a starting point to ballpark an answer to the hypothetical proposed (what if MJ dropped to Kobe's defensive level).

Seeing this thread prompted me to update the 1991 page. It's up to 294 games now: https://squared2020.com/2021/09/11/1990-1991-nba-rapm/

That's sick! I didn't realize you were on RealGM. Thanks so much for the update! I've really enjoyed looking at your RAPM stats.

So I do have to ask

Now that we have a reasonable amount of RAPM data for his season + the season where he left both suggesting that in that 91-93 era MJ was more of a decent defensive wing than an all time great perimeter defender, isn’t this significant?

I think if it was just one or another it’d be noise, and this doesn’t really take him out from second spot for me

But I feel at least with the people I’ve engaged with the main thing between MJ and Bron peak vs peak is the defensive gap larger than the offensive gap, and that the defensive gap isn’t as large as I’m purporting (playoff bron ofc).

Now that the available evidence seems to imply the gap might be larger than I thought too, doesn’t that change thing significantly?

Im still in the MJ is an elite defensive wing camp, but like, I feel like for any other player in nba history

If we had

- a season without them with a reasonable amount of roster turnover where the defense slightly improved
- NPI Rapm data showing their defense as closer to decent than all time elite at their position

We would pretty quickly question our assumptions about their impact defensively?

Hmm, maybe I've missed something:

Do we see any data that has Jordan's overall RAPM standing as disappointing?

If so, I'd appreciate if you could elaborate.

If not, then I'd guess what you're pointing to that the Offense vs Defense split is just overwhelmingly offensive for Jordan? Presuming that's the case, I'll just emphasize that I'm very reluctant to take such splits too seriously. Coaches choose who to play around a star based on them in part being able to balance out his limitations. All of this can skew the split that the regression spits out.

To be clear: I'm not dead set on the idea that Jordan must be mega-valuable defensively. It's pretty easy to see how such a thing could be possible with his tendency toward improvisation and gambling. I ain't betting on Jordan turning out to have been overrated defensively personally, but if that's what it turns out, we'll know how it happened.

But I am reluctant to assert that it (the overrating) was definitely happened with what I see here to this point.

I also was a bit puzzled here. It didn't seem like the RAPM data so far is that disappointing (though perhaps it's not the world-beating GOAT-by-a-wide-margin stuff people might hope for). And I'm also less interested in the split and more interested the net value

So far, comparing LeBron vs Jordan by RAPM :
LeBron: +8.84 in 2009 (would be 4th all time), +9.73 in 2011 (would be 2nd all time), +9.5 in 2012 (would be 2nd all time), +6.4 in 2013 (would be 13th all time), 6.79 in 2014, 8.7 in 2015, +8.62 in 2016 (would be 4th all time), 6.62 in 2017, 1.56 in 2018 (holy coasting! wow!), 3.44 in 2019.

Jordan: +7.47 in 1988 (would be 8th all time. 43 game sample where Bulls just barely performed better than their average season level), +6.40 in 1991 (57 games where Bulls drastically underperformed their average season level), +7.17 in 1996 (21 games sample where Bulls performed at their average season level), +5.85 in 1997 (full season sample), +6.15 in 1998.

To be clear, from the sample we have, LeBron seems to perform better. But it's worth noting LeBron underperforms in RAPM in 2013 (usually considered his peak), and isn't too far ahead of the pack in 2009 and 2016. As for Jordan, both 1988 and 1996 would be top 10 seasons. We're missing 89, 90, 92, and 93. For 91, the bulls drastically underperformed for their season average (on pace to lose 9 games more than they did), so there's reason to believe Jordan might improve with the full season sample.

Again, this doesn't paint Jordan as the clear GOAT by a wide margin, and perhaps it should give us pause when ranking his peak over LeBron's, but there's enough uncertainty and he's good enough in non-peak years to still feel fairly good about his peak. Thoughts?

Source: Goldstein for full seasons (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eK0i6L0q2Brih5nKOKZLGHVofY0JWKOlnnEaSMu1LTM/edit#gid=0), Squared2020 for incomplete seasons (at their website https://squared2020.com/1987-88-nba-rapm/ and their twitter account). Qualifier: The RAPM all time rankings I listed only include top ~20 peaks (sorry Draymond), with 1 entry per player. Notable older players who aren't included are Wilt, Russell, young Kareem, Oscar, Jerry, Walton. Players included in the ranking are: LeBron, Jordan, Shaq, Curry, incomplete Hakeem seasons, older Kareem, Duncan, incomplete Bird seasons, KG, incomplete Magic seasons, Kobe, KD, Robinson, Wade, Dirk, Nash, older Karl Malone, Chris Paul, Kawhi, Harden, Jokic (pre 2020), Giannis (pre 2020), AD (pre 2020).

[MyUniBroDavis]

So I do have to ask

Now that we have a reasonable amount of RAPM data for his season + the season where he left both suggesting that in that 91-93 era MJ was more of a decent defensive wing than an all time great perimeter defender, isn’t this significant?

I think if it was just one or another it’d be noise, and this doesn’t really take him out from second spot for me

But I feel at least with the people I’ve engaged with the main thing between MJ and Bron peak vs peak is the defensive gap larger than the offensive gap, and that the defensive gap isn’t as large as I’m purporting (playoff bron ofc).

Now that the available evidence seems to imply the gap might be larger than I thought too, doesn’t that change thing significantly?

Im still in the MJ is an elite defensive wing camp, but like, I feel like for any other player in nba history

If we had

- a season without them with a reasonable amount of roster turnover where the defense slightly improved
- NPI Rapm data showing their defense as closer to decent than all time elite at their position

We would pretty quickly question our assumptions about their impact defensively?

Hmm, maybe I've missed something:

Do we see any data that has Jordan's overall RAPM standing as disappointing?

If so, I'd appreciate if you could elaborate.

If not, then I'd guess what you're pointing to that the Offense vs Defense split is just overwhelmingly offensive for Jordan? Presuming that's the case, I'll just emphasize that I'm very reluctant to take such splits too seriously. Coaches choose who to play around a star based on them in part being able to balance out his limitations. All of this can skew the split that the regression spits out.

To be clear: I'm not dead set on the idea that Jordan must be mega-valuable defensively. It's pretty easy to see how such a thing could be possible with his tendency toward improvisation and gambling. I ain't betting on Jordan turning out to have been overrated defensively personally, but if that's what it turns out, we'll know how it happened.

But I am reluctant to assert that it (the overrating) was definitely happened with what I see here to this point.

So the overrating is more so something I’m talking about relative to the people that I’m kind of “debating” his defense with

I’m not sure where you stand on the 91 Jordan on defense, I’m not saying he’s not an elite perimeter defender, but I think he’s overrated in the sense that it wasn’t an all time great perimeter defensive season the way I rate 2016 bron.

What do you mean by the splits? That’s mainly what I meant. If we’re talking about an “objective value”, I would agree the evaluation of +0.5 is probably lower than I’d expect, but I think personally I’d think it’s closer to a +1.5-2 whereas I think the argument is if it’s a +3 or near best defender in the league tier


(what’re your thoughts on that btw lol)

Appreciate the en fuego comments lol

[MyUniBroDavis]

Hi LukaTheGoat! It looks like you quoted me above and bolded my first sentence, but I don't see any text. Did you mean to?

If you're concerned about the stat CORP +/- stat, I don't mean for it to be the be-all-end-all, just a starting point to ballpark an answer to the hypothetical proposed.

Seeing this thread prompted me to update the 1991 page. It's up to 294 games now: https://squared2020.com/2021/09/11/1990-1991-nba-rapm/

That's sick! I didn't realize you were on RealGM. Thanks so much for the update! I've really enjoyed looking at your RAPM stats.

So I do have to ask

Now that we have a reasonable amount of RAPM data for his season + the season where he left both suggesting that in that 91-93 era MJ was more of a decent defensive wing than an all time great perimeter defender, isn’t this significant?

I think if it was just one or another it’d be noise, and this doesn’t really take him out from second spot for me

But I feel at least with the people I’ve engaged with the main thing between MJ and Bron peak vs peak is the defensive gap larger than the offensive gap, and that the defensive gap isn’t as large as I’m purporting (playoff bron ofc).

Now that the available evidence seems to imply the gap might be larger than I thought too, doesn’t that change thing significantly?

Im still in the MJ is an elite defensive wing camp, but like, I feel like for any other player in nba history

If we had

- a season without them with a reasonable amount of roster turnover where the defense slightly improved
- NPI Rapm data showing their defense as closer to decent than all time elite at their position

We would pretty quickly question our assumptions about their impact defensively?

Hmm, maybe I've missed something:

Do we see any data that has Jordan's overall RAPM standing as disappointing?

If so, I'd appreciate if you could elaborate.

If not, then I'd guess what you're pointing to that the Offense vs Defense split is just overwhelmingly offensive for Jordan? Presuming that's the case, I'll just emphasize that I'm very reluctant to take such splits too seriously. Coaches choose who to play around a star based on them in part being able to balance out his limitations. All of this can skew the split that the regression spits out.

To be clear: I'm not dead set on the idea that Jordan must be mega-valuable defensively. It's pretty easy to see how such a thing could be possible with his tendency toward improvisation and gambling. I ain't betting on Jordan turning out to have been overrated defensively personally, but if that's what it turns out, we'll know how it happened.

But I am reluctant to assert that it (the overrating) was definitely happened with what I see here to this point.

I also was a bit puzzled here. It didn't seem like the RAPM data so far is that disappointing (though perhaps it's not the world-beating GOAT-by-a-wide-margin stuff people might hope for). And I'm also less interested in the split and more interested the net value

So far, comparing LeBron vs Jordan by RAPM :
LeBron: +8.84 in 2009 (would be 4th all time), +9.73 in 2011 (would be 2nd all time), +9.5 in 2012 (would be 2nd all time), +6.4 in 2013 (would be 13th all time), 6.79 in 2014, 8.7 in 2015, +8.62 in 2016 (would be 4th all time), 6.62 in 2017, 1.56 in 2018 (holy coasting! wow!), 3.44 in 2019.

Jordan: +7.47 in 1988 (would be 8th all time. 43 game sample where Bulls just barely performed better than their average season level), +6.40 in 1991 (57 games where Bulls drastically underperformed their average season level), +7.17 in 1996 (21 games sample where Bulls performed at their average season level), +5.85 in 1997 (full season sample), +6.15 in 1998.

To be clear, from the sample we have, LeBron seems to perform better. But it's worth noting LeBron underperforms in RAPM in 2013 (usually considered his peak), and isn't too far ahead of the pack in 2009 and 2016. As for Jordan, both 1988 and 1996 would be top 10 seasons. We're missing 89, 90, 92, and 93. For 91, the bulls drastically underperformed for their season average (on pace to lose 9 games more than they did), so there's reason to believe Jordan might improve with the full season sample.

Again, this doesn't paint Jordan as the clear GOAT by a wide margin, and perhaps it should give us pause when ranking his peak over LeBron's, but there's enough uncertainty and he's good enough in non-peak years to still feel fairly good about his peak. Thoughts?



Source:
Goldstein for full seasons (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eK0i6L0q2Brih5nKOKZLGHVofY0JWKOlnnEaSMu1LTM/edit#gid=0), Squared2020 for incomplete seasons (at their website https://squared2020.com/1987-88-nba-rapm/ and their twitter account).
The RAPM all time rankings I listed only include top ~20 peaks (sorry Draymond), with 1 entry per player. Notable older players who aren't included are Wilt, Russell, young Kareem, Oscar, Jerry, Walton.

I think standard devs are used to compare across seasons? I might be wrong though

[DraymondGold]

So I do have to ask

Now that we have a reasonable amount of RAPM data for his season + the season where he left both suggesting that in that 91-93 era MJ was more of a decent defensive wing than an all time great perimeter defender, isn’t this significant?

I think if it was just one or another it’d be noise, and this doesn’t really take him out from second spot for me

But I feel at least with the people I’ve engaged with the main thing between MJ and Bron peak vs peak is the defensive gap larger than the offensive gap, and that the defensive gap isn’t as large as I’m purporting (playoff bron ofc).

Now that the available evidence seems to imply the gap might be larger than I thought too, doesn’t that change thing significantly?

Im still in the MJ is an elite defensive wing camp, but like, I feel like for any other player in nba history

If we had

- a season without them with a reasonable amount of roster turnover where the defense slightly improved
- NPI Rapm data showing their defense as closer to decent than all time elite at their position

We would pretty quickly question our assumptions about their impact defensively?

Hmm, maybe I've missed something:

Do we see any data that has Jordan's overall RAPM standing as disappointing?

If so, I'd appreciate if you could elaborate.

If not, then I'd guess what you're pointing to that the Offense vs Defense split is just overwhelmingly offensive for Jordan? Presuming that's the case, I'll just emphasize that I'm very reluctant to take such splits too seriously. Coaches choose who to play around a star based on them in part being able to balance out his limitations. All of this can skew the split that the regression spits out.

To be clear: I'm not dead set on the idea that Jordan must be mega-valuable defensively. It's pretty easy to see how such a thing could be possible with his tendency toward improvisation and gambling. I ain't betting on Jordan turning out to have been overrated defensively personally, but if that's what it turns out, we'll know how it happened.

But I am reluctant to assert that it (the overrating) was definitely happened with what I see here to this point.

So the overrating is more so something I’m talking about relative to the people that I’m kind of “debating” his defense with

I’m not sure where you stand on the 91 Jordan on defense, I’m not saying he’s not an elite perimeter defender, but I think he’s overrated in the sense that it wasn’t an all time great perimeter defensive season the way I rate 2016 bron.

What do you mean by the splits? That’s mainly what I meant. If we’re talking about an “objective value”, I would agree the evaluation of +0.5 is probably lower than I’d expect, but I think personally I’d think it’s closer to a +1.5-2 whereas I think the argument is if it’s a +3 or near best defender in the league tier


(what’re your thoughts on that btw lol)

Appreciate the en fuego comments lol

By splits, I'm guessing he means where the split is for offensive and defensive RAPM (?) Feel free to correct me DoctorMJ if that's not what you meant! As I understand it, plus minus stats can be confident in their net value, but can sometimes have uncertainty in where the division between offensive and defensive value is. For example, if Jordan forces a steal and gets an unguarded fast break to a layup... how much of those 2 points generated are offensive and how much are defensive?

I tend to have a similar guess for MJ's "objective value" on defense to you. I would have thought higher than 0.5, somewhere in the 1s (1–2 points), below the best defenders at +3.

Hi LukaTheGoat! It looks like you quoted me above and bolded my first sentence, but I don't see any text. Did you mean to?

If you're concerned about the stat CORP +/- stat, I don't mean for it to be the be-all-end-all, just a starting point to ballpark an answer to the hypothetical proposed.

Seeing this thread prompted me to update the 1991 page. It's up to 294 games now: https://squared2020.com/2021/09/11/1990-1991-nba-rapm/

That's sick! I didn't realize you were on RealGM. Thanks so much for the update! I've really enjoyed looking at your RAPM stats.

Hmm, maybe I've missed something:

Do we see any data that has Jordan's overall RAPM standing as disappointing?

If so, I'd appreciate if you could elaborate.

If not, then I'd guess what you're pointing to that the Offense vs Defense split is just overwhelmingly offensive for Jordan? Presuming that's the case, I'll just emphasize that I'm very reluctant to take such splits too seriously. Coaches choose who to play around a star based on them in part being able to balance out his limitations. All of this can skew the split that the regression spits out.

To be clear: I'm not dead set on the idea that Jordan must be mega-valuable defensively. It's pretty easy to see how such a thing could be possible with his tendency toward improvisation and gambling. I ain't betting on Jordan turning out to have been overrated defensively personally, but if that's what it turns out, we'll know how it happened.

But I am reluctant to assert that it (the overrating) was definitely happened with what I see here to this point.

I also was a bit puzzled here. It didn't seem like the RAPM data so far is that disappointing (though perhaps it's not the world-beating GOAT-by-a-wide-margin stuff people might hope for). And I'm also less interested in the split and more interested the net value

So far, comparing LeBron vs Jordan by RAPM :
LeBron: +8.84 in 2009 (would be 4th all time), +9.73 in 2011 (would be 2nd all time), +9.5 in 2012 (would be 2nd all time), +6.4 in 2013 (would be 13th all time), 6.79 in 2014, 8.7 in 2015, +8.62 in 2016 (would be 4th all time), 6.62 in 2017, 1.56 in 2018 (holy coasting! wow!), 3.44 in 2019.

Jordan: +7.47 in 1988 (would be 8th all time. 43 game sample where Bulls just barely performed better than their average season level), +6.40 in 1991 (57 games where Bulls drastically underperformed their average season level), +7.17 in 1996 (21 games sample where Bulls performed at their average season level), +5.85 in 1997 (full season sample), +6.15 in 1998.

To be clear, from the sample we have, LeBron seems to perform better. But it's worth noting LeBron underperforms in RAPM in 2013 (usually considered his peak), and isn't too far ahead of the pack in 2009 and 2016. As for Jordan, both 1988 and 1996 would be top 10 seasons. We're missing 89, 90, 92, and 93. For 91, the bulls drastically underperformed for their season average (on pace to lose 9 games more than they did), so there's reason to believe Jordan might improve with the full season sample.

Again, this doesn't paint Jordan as the clear GOAT by a wide margin, and perhaps it should give us pause when ranking his peak over LeBron's, but there's enough uncertainty and he's good enough in non-peak years to still feel fairly good about his peak. Thoughts?



Source:
Goldstein for full seasons (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eK0i6L0q2Brih5nKOKZLGHVofY0JWKOlnnEaSMu1LTM/edit#gid=0), Squared2020 for incomplete seasons (at their website https://squared2020.com/1987-88-nba-rapm/ and their twitter account).
The RAPM all time rankings I listed only include top ~20 peaks (sorry Draymond), with 1 entry per player. Notable older players who aren't included are Wilt, Russell, young Kareem, Oscar, Jerry, Walton.

I think standard devs are used to compare across seasons? I might be wrong though

I'm too lazy to manually calculate the standard deviations in this season, but Jordan is favorable there for sure. He's about +0.8 points above 2nd place in 1988, a full +1.45 above second place in 1991, and again about +0.8 above 2nd place in 1996.

[Gregoire]

For people who picked Shaq ahead of Kareem - what's your reason behind it? Shaq was a worse creator than Kareem, significantly worse defender and even his biggest strength (post game) isn't an advantage in this case.

I see two things in Shaq's favor - offensive rebounding and inside finishing. Is that enough to overcome what I consider significant gap on defense and iso scoring?

Only thing here I disagee: Shaq for me wasnt worse creator than Kareem. They were basically equal, maybe 0,001% Kareem better. Also while I think Kareem better defender at peak, its not near "sighificantly".

[MyUniBroDavis]

Hmm, maybe I've missed something:

Do we see any data that has Jordan's overall RAPM standing as disappointing?

If so, I'd appreciate if you could elaborate.

If not, then I'd guess what you're pointing to that the Offense vs Defense split is just overwhelmingly offensive for Jordan? Presuming that's the case, I'll just emphasize that I'm very reluctant to take such splits too seriously. Coaches choose who to play around a star based on them in part being able to balance out his limitations. All of this can skew the split that the regression spits out.

To be clear: I'm not dead set on the idea that Jordan must be mega-valuable defensively. It's pretty easy to see how such a thing could be possible with his tendency toward improvisation and gambling. I ain't betting on Jordan turning out to have been overrated defensively personally, but if that's what it turns out, we'll know how it happened.

But I am reluctant to assert that it (the overrating) was definitely happened with what I see here to this point.

So the overrating is more so something I’m talking about relative to the people that I’m kind of “debating” his defense with

I’m not sure where you stand on the 91 Jordan on defense, I’m not saying he’s not an elite perimeter defender, but I think he’s overrated in the sense that it wasn’t an all time great perimeter defensive season the way I rate 2016 bron.

What do you mean by the splits? That’s mainly what I meant. If we’re talking about an “objective value”, I would agree the evaluation of +0.5 is probably lower than I’d expect, but I think personally I’d think it’s closer to a +1.5-2 whereas I think the argument is if it’s a +3 or near best defender in the league tier


(what’re your thoughts on that btw lol)

Appreciate the en fuego comments lol

By splits, I'm guessing he means where the split is for offensive and defensive RAPM (?) Feel free to correct me DoctorMJ if that's not what you meant! As I understand it, plus minus stats can be confident in their net value, but can sometimes have uncertainty in where the division between offensive and defensive value is. For example, if Jordan forces a steal and gets an unguarded fast break to a layup... how much of those 2 points generated are offensive and how much are defensive?

I tend to have a similar guess for MJ's "objective value" on defense to you. I would have thought higher than 0.5, somewhere in the 1s (1–2 points), below the best defenders at +3.

Hi LukaTheGoat! It looks like you quoted me above and bolded my first sentence, but I don't see any text. Did you mean to?

If you're concerned about the stat CORP +/- stat, I don't mean for it to be the be-all-end-all, just a starting point to ballpark an answer to the hypothetical proposed.




That's sick! I didn't realize you were on RealGM. Thanks so much for the update! I've really enjoyed looking at your RAPM stats.



I also was a bit puzzled here. It didn't seem like the RAPM data so far is that disappointing (though perhaps it's not the world-beating GOAT-by-a-wide-margin stuff people might hope for). And I'm also less interested in the split and more interested the net value

So far, comparing LeBron vs Jordan by RAPM :
LeBron: +8.84 in 2009 (would be 4th all time), +9.73 in 2011 (would be 2nd all time), +9.5 in 2012 (would be 2nd all time), +6.4 in 2013 (would be 13th all time), 6.79 in 2014, 8.7 in 2015, +8.62 in 2016 (would be 4th all time), 6.62 in 2017, 1.56 in 2018 (holy coasting! wow!), 3.44 in 2019.

Jordan: +7.47 in 1988 (would be 8th all time. 43 game sample where Bulls just barely performed better than their average season level), +6.40 in 1991 (57 games where Bulls drastically underperformed their average season level), +7.17 in 1996 (21 games sample where Bulls performed at their average season level), +5.85 in 1997 (full season sample), +6.15 in 1998.

To be clear, from the sample we have, LeBron seems to perform better. But it's worth noting LeBron underperforms in RAPM in 2013 (usually considered his peak), and isn't too far ahead of the pack in 2009 and 2016. As for Jordan, both 1988 and 1996 would be top 10 seasons. We're missing 89, 90, 92, and 93. For 91, the bulls drastically underperformed for their season average (on pace to lose 9 games more than they did), so there's reason to believe Jordan might improve with the full season sample.

Again, this doesn't paint Jordan as the clear GOAT by a wide margin, and perhaps it should give us pause when ranking his peak over LeBron's, but there's enough uncertainty and he's good enough in non-peak years to still feel fairly good about his peak. Thoughts?



Source:
Goldstein for full seasons (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eK0i6L0q2Brih5nKOKZLGHVofY0JWKOlnnEaSMu1LTM/edit#gid=0), Squared2020 for incomplete seasons (at their website https://squared2020.com/1987-88-nba-rapm/ and their twitter account).
The RAPM all time rankings I listed only include top ~20 peaks (sorry Draymond), with 1 entry per player. Notable older players who aren't included are Wilt, Russell, young Kareem, Oscar, Jerry, Walton.

I think standard devs are used to compare across seasons? I might be wrong though

I'm too lazy to manually calculate the standard deviations in this season, but Jordan is favorable there for sure. He's about +0.8 points above 2nd place in 1988, a full +1.45 above second place in 1991, and again about +0.8 above 2nd place in 1996.

Oh I wasn’t saying Jordan’s were bad

Off of memory, the 2016 season was interesting because the stnd dev was fairly low, draymond was just crazily above the pack or something like that I’d have to check again, I have the Google sheet in my first post I think

[70sFan]

For people who picked Shaq ahead of Kareem - what's your reason behind it? Shaq was a worse creator than Kareem, significantly worse defender and even his biggest strength (post game) isn't an advantage in this case.

I see two things in Shaq's favor - offensive rebounding and inside finishing. Is that enough to overcome what I consider significant gap on defense and iso scoring?

Only thing here I disagee: Shaq for me wasnt worse creator than Kareem. They were basically equal, maybe 0,001% Kareem better. Also while I think Kareem better defender at peak, its not near "sighificantly".

It depends on what you mean by "creator". Shaq's inside gravity and off-ball movement certainly created a lot of opportunities for his teammates (though Kareem is basically his equal in that aspect), but when both had ball in their hands, Kareem was clearly more effective. He was far more efficient isolation scorer and a better passer who took more risks as a playmaker. He created better opportunities both for himself and for others.

About defense - I really think the difference is significant. Shaq had a nice defensive RS, but it didn't translate to the playoffs. He had so many weaknesses that were exploitable. Kareem didn't have such problems. I'm willing to provide film analysis if you're not convinced.

[70sFan]

For people who picked Shaq ahead of Kareem - what's your reason behind it? Shaq was a worse creator than Kareem, significantly worse defender and even his biggest strength (post game) isn't an advantage in this case.

I see two things in Shaq's favor - offensive rebounding and inside finishing. Is that enough to overcome what I consider significant gap on defense and iso scoring?

What do you mean by Shaq being a worse creator than Kareem?

That Shaq was worse at creating easy shots with the ba in his hands - both for himself and for others.

[70sFan]

For people who picked Shaq ahead of Kareem - what's your reason behind it? Shaq was a worse creator than Kareem, significantly worse defender and even his biggest strength (post game) isn't an advantage in this case.

I see two things in Shaq's favor - offensive rebounding and inside finishing. Is that enough to overcome what I consider significant gap on defense and iso scoring?

This is an instance in which I wish we had more granular data. I would love to see how often Shaq and Kareem were doubled, and the improvement on teammate TS% with both on the floor.

I feel like both have tremendous gravity.

I didn't track the number of doubles and I won't have the time to count them now, but I'd say they are basically even in that aspect.

[70sFan]

For people who picked Shaq ahead of Kareem - what's your reason behind it? Shaq was a worse creator than Kareem, significantly worse defender and even his biggest strength (post game) isn't an advantage in this case.

I see two things in Shaq's favor - offensive rebounding and inside finishing. Is that enough to overcome what I consider significant gap on defense and iso scoring?

I do not really believe Kareem is a better creator and I think the shots Shaq created have higher value because of era differences. I also don't think the defense gap when looking at Shaq's single best season vs '77 KAJ is TOO significant especially with Shaq forcing more replacement level big minutes with his foul drawing threat(tho I give KAJ a very clear edge). My impression is also that Shaq has higher off ball value w/ his offensive rebounding advantage, lob threat, and what I perceive as slightly more 'gravity', but the tracked double teamed information might sway my opinion a bit. Really tho it's just splitting hairs and I have a higher degree of confidence w/ Shaq with the amount of film and data we have. Honestly KAJ's performance in the 1977 playoffs can stack up pretty well against anyone ever.

Wouldn't it be unfair to give Shaq the edge because his teammates could take three pointers though?

Would the fact that Kareem was significantly more efficient post scorer than Shaq change your evaluation?

[Jaivl]

For people who picked Shaq ahead of Kareem - what's your reason behind it? Shaq was a worse creator than Kareem, significantly worse defender and even his biggest strength (post game) isn't an advantage in this case.

I see two things in Shaq's favor - offensive rebounding and inside finishing. Is that enough to overcome what I consider significant gap on defense and iso scoring?

I do not really believe Kareem is a better creator and I think the shots Shaq created have higher value because of era differences. I also don't think the defense gap when looking at Shaq's single best season vs '77 KAJ is TOO significant especially with Shaq forcing more replacement level big minutes with his foul drawing threat(tho I give KAJ a very clear edge). My impression is also that Shaq has higher off ball value w/ his offensive rebounding advantage, lob threat, and what I perceive as slightly more 'gravity', but the tracked double teamed information might sway my opinion a bit. Really tho it's just splitting hairs and I have a higher degree of confidence w/ Shaq with the amount of film and data we have. Honestly KAJ's performance in the 1977 playoffs can stack up pretty well against anyone ever.

Wouldn't it be unfair to give Shaq the edge because his teammates could take three pointers though?

Yes, but no. We do ignore those kinds of injustices constantly.

Isn't it unfair to Duncan, Gobert, KG... that back in the day centers were able to offer MUCH more defensive value? Isn't it unfair to 60s, 70s all-star guards that current guards have absurdly lax handle standards and a 3-pt shot to work with? Etc.