lessthanjake wrote:
It is how RAPM works. If Kyrie spends the vast majority of his minutes with LeBron, and in his minutes with LeBron he is not adding essentially any impact compared to when LeBron is on and Kyrie is off, then, even if he has high impact in the non-LeBron minutes, RAPM models will overall chalk Kyrie down as not being a particularly positive-impact player and therefore will give him little credit for impact in the Lebron on Kyrie on minutes. And in a sense that’s not wrong, when the team does as well in LeBron on Kyrie off minutes as it does in LeBron on Kyrie on minutes. But it obscures that Kyrie is capable of having much more impact and did have more impact in the LeBron off minutes (and also did have more impact in minutes both with and without Durant on the Nets). By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect on what RAPM thinks about LeBron’s impact. RAPM can’t really figure out that someone’s impact is being cannibalized.
It’s kind of funny this discussion is happening knowing the stretch of games Kyrie played best in his career in the highest pressure situations.

Anyway.
It seems pointless to continue our discussion when you do not have a fundamental understanding about how RAPM works or is calculated which seems to be the case judging by these comments you’ve made, i.e.,
“by playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from having much impact.” Kyrie is a consistently Plus offensive player with a moderate peak and mostly negative defensive player. He has proven this in multiple contexts, in hundreds and hundreds of lineup variations that he’s been in, and it is all captured very succinctly in the RAPM data that we have. He will never have the impact a that much superior player like Draymond Green does. If you understand the fundamental nature of how you calculate RAPM numbers you might understand this. LeBron, playing with Kyrie adds offensive impact. Kyrie’s poor defense prevents a higher ceiling being reached along with mediocre playmaking. Adding to +10 is incredibly difficult, especially if it’s not going to be on defense that is much more portable. Kyrie also has opportunities when he is not playing with James to show his impact, something players like Draymond do without Curry, but Kyrie hasn’t been able to do it at the same level.
2015-2017 Bron and Kyrie Kyrie on, no Bron: -2.35 (108.8 ORtg, 111.2)
Bron on, no Kyrie: +10.01 (113.3 ORtg, 103.3 DRtg)
Bron+Kyrie: +10.39 (118.8 ORtg, 108.5) [better offense but worse defense— is that LeBron’s fault?]
Is LeBron playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from playing defense that hurts the Kyrie defensive lineups? How exactly is LeBron playing in a way that’s preventing Kyrie from adding impact? They are creating better offense (all time type) but worse defense. As far as the narrative of LeBron, controlling the ball or holding onto the ball, well, Kyrie dribbled the ball more and held the ball longer than LeBron did.
Regular Season seconds per touch, dribbles per touch 2015:
LeBron, 4.75, 3.62
Kyrie, 4.90, 4.68
2016:
LeBron, 4.11, 3.06
Kyrie, 4.99, 4.84
2017:
LeBron, 4.36, 3.26
Kyrie: 5.07, 4.87
By the way, the discrepancy was even more pronounced in the playoffs, the playoffs that produced two of the greatest postseason offenses in NBA history.
Additionally, Kyrie spent more time with the ball in his hands per touch and also more dribbles per touch in Cleveland than he did in Boston and in Brooklyn. So, for all the talk of LeBron holding onto the ball or dribbling too much and not allowing Kyrie, or others to play, well that it doesn’t prove that.
As for more impact in Brooklyn, Kyrie continue to improve as a player and came into what most would consider his prime in Boston and in Brooklyn. Regardless, RAPM (NBAShot charts) doesn’t really agree when you look at all the lineups. Kyrie’s impact is consistently positive, but capped due to defense with his highest offensive highs in Cleveland.
+2.09, 2023, +1.69 ORAPM, +.4 DRAPM
+2.00, 2019, +1.44 ORAPM, +.56 DRAPM
+1.99, 2015, +2.18 ORAPM (second highest of career), -.19 DRAPM
+1.91, 2017, +2.76 ORAPM (highest of career), -85 DRAPM (435th)
+1.69, 2022, +1.93 ORAPM, -.25 DRAPM
Luck adjusted
+1.75, 2017, +2.29 ORAPM, -.54 DRAPM
+1.73, 2015, +2.07 ORAPM, -.34 DRAPM
+1.69, 2019, +1.35 ORAPM, +.34 DRAPM
+1.49, 2021, +1.79 ORAPM, -.3 DRAPM
+1.43
3 year has a range +3.73 to +2.51 for 2020-2023, 2016-2019, 2015-2018, 2019-2022, with ORAPM favoring later years, Luck adjusted favoring 2014-2017, 2015-2018 years.
Englemann’s 1997-2019 set has it at 2017, 2019, 2015, 2018, 2016 with 2017 and 2016 having the highest ORAPM by far. He has RAPM seasons in the 800th—1000th range.
Cheema’s set has it at:
2017-2021: +2.52
2015-2019: +2.41
2014-2018: +2.07
2016-2020: +1.97
2013-2017: +1.23