Doctor MJ wrote:ROY voting:
1. Castle
2. Risacher
3. Wells
Followed by: Sarr, Edey & Kel'el
Honestly, I'm quite apathetic about this, anyone have passionate thoughts?
Is there any rookie left we should be talking about?
Yeah, it's brutal. I feel like I'm just going to vote the same as the official people. Honestly I was ramping up to champion Risacher if he did well in the play-in, but nope, that didn't happen.
Doctor MJ wrote:MIP voting:
1. Dyson (ATL)
2. Zubac (LAC)
3. Cade (DET)
Followed by: Braun, Reaves, Mobley, Amen
This is an award where statistical differences tend to really pop so I expect we'll get there along the way.
I have some skepticism toward Dyson that I'd appreciate people try to win me over on - lots of steals on a bad defense on a disappointing team?
On the other hand, I think Zubac hasn't gotten anywhere near enough love for the leap he's made. He's my #1 right now.
I like all the other guys that are listed above, but I do have a bias toward guys I see as reaching all-star level for the first time. I think Zubac reached that level even if he didn't get picked, and of course Cade & Mobley did make it. Love Braun & Reaves but they're a tier lower...Amen I'd listen to the case for.
Not sure I have new feelings here. Still leaning Zubac here.
While Zubac may end up tumbling on my DPOY, I think he's got my 6MOY vote basically locked in. Will probably have 1st time all-stars (Cade, Mobley, J-Dub, Sengun) in the other ballot spots.
Doctor MJ wrote:6MOY voting:
1. Pritchard (BOS)
2. Beasley (DET)
3. Jerome (CLE)
Followed by: Hunter, Naz, NAW, Westbrook, Caruso
Pritchard & Jerome are to me classic strong candidates.
I struggle in taking seriously 6th Men from middling teams like Beasley. I can acknowledge the possibility that such a player might actually be the most effective 6th man in the league, but it just seems to me that if a player really is that good, he should be starting for that team.
Hunter had a weird season, but if he ends up seeming the better guy on a great Cavs playoff run relative to Jerome, I could see it.
Naz' lack of hype for this award this year is telling. He won it last year, remained eligible and got better, yet it seems like people were content to think "Ah, he already got his"...but that's weird! Historically there hasn't been a great reluctance to have back-to-back winners in this award, but this year it feels like that's effectively what happened outcome-wise. (The fact that fellow Wolf NAW is on this list further showcases that there wasn't passionate support for Naz.)
Let's note Caruso's mention is just a single 3rd place vote, but I think it's at least chewing on who OKC's 6th man candidate should be, and how highly we should view Caruso given his minutes being limited even relative to 6MOY competition.
So, Caruso now is now acting as a clear cut 6th man level for the Thunder. Seriously thinking about him, though Pritchard had a hell of a year.
Beyond them, all the guys who got official votes are gone except for the Timberwolves duo (Naz & NAW). As mentioned, I think Naz is a strong candidate.
Looking at the other teams, seems like Toppin for the Pacers and McBride for the Knicks are worth considering but aren't super-compelling.
Okay so, Payton Pritchard is a great candidate, while Alex Caruso is dear to my heart. Let me get into some stats.
Here's the leaderboard for non-starting OnWins for the season (RS & PS), along with OnLosses.
1. Payton Pritchard (BOS) 55-33
2. Nickeil Alexander-Walker (MIN) 50-37
3. Sam Merrill (CLE) 49-23
4. Ty Jerome (CLE) 47-28
5. Alex Caruso (OKC) 46-21
And fyi
Miles McBride (NYK) 44-28
Malik Beasley (DET) 37-33
TJ McConnell (IND) 47-47
Aaron Wiggins (OKC) 45-20
Isaiah Joe (OKC) 45-29
No rule against using a guy's starter games as part of his 6MOY candidacy, but I do find this particular b-r query to be useful.
If I do the same thing for the playoffs:
1. Carson Wallace (OKC) 12-4 (ineligible for award)
2. Alex Caruso (OKC) 10-6
(tie) Miles McBride (NYK) 10-8
4. TJ McConnell (IND) 9-7
(tie) Payton Pritchard (BOS) 9-2
(tie) Aaron Wiggins (OKC) 9-6
And
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (MIN) 7-8
Isaiah Joe (OKC) 7-9
Ty Jerome (CLE) 6-2
Sam Merrill (CLE) 3-2
Wow, so, Pritchard added 9 more OnWins on a team that won 6 playoff game - and he was definitely impressive while dong so, I mean he seemed like someone no opponent had an answer for. Makes me feel like moving anyone ahead of him would be being a prisoner of the moment.
I should also say that Caruso playing limited minutes, and not actually being the #6 MPG guy on his team during the regular season (Joe was), isn't something I should just ignore, but the fact that Caruso has been the clear #6 guy in the playoffs and been so exceptionally distinct makes me want to toss all that to the side. I think I see that Pritchard is basically unsurpassable.
Beyond those two, I think I'd lean Jerome for the 3rd spot.
Doctor MJ wrote:COY voting (likely):
1. Atikinson (CLE)
2. Bickerstaff (DET)
3. Udoka (HOU)
Follwed by: Lue (LAC)
Of these guys, only Atkinson is still going after the first round. That hurts for my assessment definitely, but then I'm also prone to favoring guys with elite teams because I just don't want to give the nod to coaches doing good work reaching mediocrity who may struggle hanging with the big boys in June.
Much will depend on how it all plays out, but I do feel like Daigneault will be hard not to vote for if OKC just plows through the playoffs - and while maybe that's true of any coach who does that - OKC seems like the state-of-the-art.
Thinking a lot about Carlisle for what he's doing in Indiana as well as Finch for Minny.
Feel like Thibs didn't so much out-adjust the Celtics but benefitted from his players being settled. Maybe I'm overestimating it, but Brunson seems to have a safety-blanket like effect on his teammates.
Alright, so we get to see Daigneault & Carlisle go head to head now. All eyes on that. Feel like they'll probably top my list, with Atkinson hanging on to that last spot on the ballot.
Doctor MJ wrote:EOY we don't have access to any voting data so far but key guys on my mind:
Rob Pelinka (LAL) - got Luka
Mike Dunleavy (GS) - got Jimmy
Koby Altman (CLE) - hired Atkinson, possible cumulative achievement edge
Sam Presti (OKC) - got iHart & Caruso, possible cumulative achievement edge
Pelinka, Dunleavy & Presti remain strong candidates for me. Not sure if the GMs of the other remain teams impressed me that much in the past 12 months, though the fact that both KAT & Randle's teams are still going could end up really as a feather in whoever seems like they got the upper hand.
Okay, so I I think it's going to be hard for me to not pick Presti if OKC wins the title going away. I consider completing a roster to be more actual proof of GMing competence than merely acquiring a particular dude, and I'll probably feel like Presti is the best GM in the league which is one hell of a tiebreaker.
I still think the fact Pelinka didn't get official EOY love is absurd and smacks of sour grapes, but I could see putting someone above who I'm more impressed impressed by generally and had a really shrewd year.