70sFan wrote:One_and_Done wrote:70sFan wrote:Hitting shots at 50% from the outside isn't game breaking when it doesn't give you 3 points.
Also, it's ironic that you tell me how defenses worked back then. Tell me more about it - how shooters were defended then? I am very curious if you learned more about the game after our last exchange.
What makes the 3 more valuable is it gets you more points per possession than a 2. While KD's long range shots won't equate to as much they would with a 3pt line, KD is still hitting those long 2s at a much better % than the 60s guys are hitting other shots. That means you have to guard him out there as a priority.
It won't warp things as much as 3pt shots would, but it's game breaking nonetheless. Nobody was coming off screens from 20 feet away and hitting night incontestable shots at that sort of percentage then. The whole reason the paint is congested back then is because that's where the highest efficiency shots are coming from. If there's now a guy who can be even more efficient from deep, it changes everything. You have to send guys (plural) to the perimeter, because he's not just going to be taking g isos, you have to chase him as he runs around screens too, and fires off instant release deathshots.
It's wild that you don't know this, yet are taking shots about me needing to 'learn the game more'.
So you genuinely believe that Durant would be hitting long range shots at better efficiency than 1960s players converted rim attempts?
I actually didn't say that, but let's come back to it.
If we take a year like 1965, the average FG% was 426. That's lower than what KD shoots between 16 feet and the 3pt line. His career average is 457. from that distance, and some years it is much higher. He has 8 seasons where he hits from that range between 529 and 583.
Now, that is deadly enough, just when you compare it to the league average FG% of 429. I don't need to prove he'd hit from out there at a higher rate than rim shots to prove my point; just the fact that he's hitting above league average from out there is enough.
That said; it's very possible Durant would be hitting long range 2s at a higher % than shots within say a 5 foot radius. We can't be sure, because shooting splits for that era don't exist, but I would strongly suspect that to be the case. Firstly, you can bump up KDs % a fair bit because a) the quality of the average player guarding him is worse, and b) because he's going to take a more optimal shot diet to reflect the different environment.
The majority of shots at that time came relatively close to the basket, so I'm not sure the average shooting % within around 5 feet would be that much higher than the league average FG% of 426. It'd be higher, but higher than Durant's improved midrange %? I tend to doubt it. Of course, if you mean 'will be hit at a higher rate than uncontested lay-ups' then the answer is no, but with the paint clogged the way it was relatively few shots were uncontested back then, except on a fast break or steal, etc.
Wilt's career FG% is 540. It's very likely that KD is going to have alot of years where he's scoring more efficiently than that from long range twos. That is obviously going to break the game.