The LeBron James and Luka Doncic - 25-26 Thread

[TroubleS0me]

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[Caneman786]

What is Luka's PPG even gonna be this season? He's scoring +40 plus every game and it doesn't even seem like he's sweating

He'll give an empty 33 or so, being generous

[Caneman786]

There should be more discussion on how empty Luka's stats are (like LeBron's were last year). Look at this:



I'm not expecting this pattern to go away. At best I'm thinking it'll get to +5.

[LA Bird]

There should be more discussion on how empty Luka's stats are (like LeBron's were last year). Look at this:



I'm not expecting this pattern to go away. At best I'm thinking it'll get to +5.

... a 3 game pattern? Because Luka's +/- has been trending up the last few seasons in your very own screenshot.

And if sample size is not a problem, why not show Reaves' +30 on/off and crown him the GOAT?

[eminence]

Box to impact translation was a serious discussion for early career Luka, but he seems past it the last few seasons.

[ShotCreator]

What is Luka's PPG even gonna be this season? He's scoring +40 plus every game and it doesn't even seem like he's sweating

2020 to 2023 Luka waned as the games went on. If he really fixed his gas tank, he’ll probably be in the high 30’s until the league makes it point to get his usage down. And once that happens, it’ll become the new meta of defending him.

Very similar to peak Harden.

[Ian Scuffling]

There should be more discussion on how empty Luka's stats are (like LeBron's were last year). Look at this:



I'm not expecting this pattern to go away. At best I'm thinking it'll get to +5.

... a 3 game pattern? Because Luka's +/- has been trending up the last few seasons in your very own screenshot.

And if sample size is not a problem, why not show Reaves' +30 on/off and crown him the GOAT?

Because he's trolling. Don't expect much. Not sure what "empty" stats are, though. He's scoring a lot and they're winning? Plus, the fact that basketball is a team game, so +/- is a so so stat. I'm not even a big Luka fan, because I appreciate two way players, but his offense, as of right now, is better than his defense is bad. Will he, can he, keep it up? That's the question. This back court is still pretty poor defensively, and with no good back side defense to help them, I don't like this team come playoff time.

[homecourtloss]

They’re doing ok basically on Luka/AR shotmaking (#1 FG% in the league), good playmaking from those two, and a generous whistle. Opponents are getting almost 11 more FGA a game (lakers are last in TOV%, 20th in OREB%, 15th in creating TOV, 19th in DREB%), but the Lakers are shooting 11 more FTs per game, which doesn’t seem sustainable.

[Caneman786]

They’re doing ok basically on Luka/AR shotmaking (#1 FG% in the league), good playmaking from those two, and a generous whistle. Opponents are getting almost 11 more FGA a game (lakers are last in TOV%, 20th in OREB%, 15th in creating TOV, 19th in DREB%), but the Lakers are shooting 11 more FTs per game, which doesn’t seem sustainable.

Exactly.

Luka has played 3 games. He's shooting at 80% in two-pointers. Let's break it down:

10 / 12 (83.3%) in the restricted area
17 / 22 (77.3%) in the paint, not in the restricted area
5 / 6 (83.3%) in the mid range

Come on man. This is some outlier stuff right here.

These are the values Luka has shot in the paint, not in the restricted area and in the mid range in his career:

Paint, not in restricted area. (League average ~44%)

42.1% on 3.3 attempts a game. 2019
41.4% on 4.6 attempts a game. 2020
50.7% on 5.1 attempts a game. 2021
49.2% on 6.1 attempts a game. 2022
57.0% on 5.7 attempts a game. 2023
54.7% on 4.8 attempts a game. 2024
48.5% on 4.6 attempts a game. 2025

49.8% on 4.9 attempts a game (2019 to 2025) ~4.9 points a game.
77.3% on 7.3 attempts a game. 2026 so far. ~11.3 points a game.

I see this regressing to at the very most 6 attempts a game and 60%, which is ~7.2 points a game
More realistically, I think 55% on 5 attempts a game is gonna be the answer. ~5.5 points a game
This implies great improvement, and the only reason that is even in question is due to his new healthy body.


Mid-range. (League average ~42%)

38.3% on 1.8 attempts a game. 2019
35.1% on 0.9 attempts a game. 2020
48.6% on 2.8 attempts a game. 2021
37.7% on 3.3 attempts a game. 2022
42.3% on 3.3 attempts a game. 2023
43.8% on 4.3 attempts a game. 2024
38.9% on 3.1 attempts a game. 2025

41.6% on 2.8 attempts a game (2019 to 2025) ~2.3 points a game.
83.3% on 2.0 attempts a game. 2026 so far. ~3.3 points a game.

Realistically, this will be around 40% on 3 attempts a game, which is ~2.4 points a game.
A very high end projection would be 45% on 4 attempts a game, that would be ~3.6 points a game.

Then he's shooting 14 free throw attempts a game when his career high for a season is 10.5. Let's move it down to that too. A more realistic idea would be 9.

So he'll lose at minimum 3 points from the free throw line and 3 points from outlier two-point shotmaking, which brings his average down to 39 points per game.

More realistically, though, it's losing 4 points from the free throw line and 5 points from the outlier two-point shotmaking, and that's gonna be averaging 36 points.

On top of this, the second option (assumed?) hasn't played a minute yet.

I think 33 PPG is a good guess for a scoring average, with 37 PPG being on a high-end estimate assuming heavier injuries to LeBron, AR15, and possibly other guards like Marcus Smart who could eat into Luka's minutes.

This also assumes no setbacks due to injury.

[Caneman786]

Austin Reaves as well is having outlier shooting of 20 / 33 (60.6%) in the paint, not in the restricted area and 5 / 11 (45.5%) from mid-range.
Knecht, Rui, and Ayton, based on a cursory look, also seem to be high outliers in these regions, though on lesser attempts.

When those games happen that they regress to the mean in, Los Angeles is in a world of trouble!
Hence, I have not been impressed with the Lakers so far this season.

[Bob8]

Austin Reaves as well is having outlier shooting of 20 / 33 (60.6%) in the paint, not in the restricted area and 5 / 11 (45.5%) from mid-range.
Knecht, Rui, and Ayton, based on a cursory look, also seem to be high outliers in these regions, though on lesser attempts.

When those games happen that they regress to the mean in, Los Angeles is in a world of trouble!
Hence, I have not been impressed with the Lakers so far this season.

You mean you wasn't impressed by a team that misses 52 mio player? Tell me, which team can play better without 1/3 of the cap?

[Caneman786]

Austin Reaves as well is having outlier shooting of 20 / 33 (60.6%) in the paint, not in the restricted area and 5 / 11 (45.5%) from mid-range.
Knecht, Rui, and Ayton, based on a cursory look, also seem to be high outliers in these regions, though on lesser attempts.

When those games happen that they regress to the mean in, Los Angeles is in a world of trouble!
Hence, I have not been impressed with the Lakers so far this season.

You mean you wasn't impressed by a team that misses 52 mio player? Tell me, which team can play better without 1/3 of the cap?

Probably the modern Lakers. LeBron was a net negative and the team was better without him last season, after all.

This short stretch when they don't have him is as good as it gets

[Bob8]

Austin Reaves as well is having outlier shooting of 20 / 33 (60.6%) in the paint, not in the restricted area and 5 / 11 (45.5%) from mid-range.
Knecht, Rui, and Ayton, based on a cursory look, also seem to be high outliers in these regions, though on lesser attempts.

When those games happen that they regress to the mean in, Los Angeles is in a world of trouble!
Hence, I have not been impressed with the Lakers so far this season.

You mean you wasn't impressed by a team that misses 52 mio player? Tell me, which team can play better without 1/3 of the cap?

Probably the modern Lakers. LeBron was a net negative and the team was better without him last season, after all.

This short stretch when they don't have him is as good as it gets

I'm sure that Smith and Bronny, who played 40 minutes against Portland, are better players than LeBron.

What people don't understand about +/- is that lineups with LeBron might not be the best anymore, but they're still much better than lineups with some other bench warmers instead of him. Last year LeBron didn't have good numbers without Luka, but with AR playing like he's, JJ can play LeBron more with Luka and leave AR to run second unit.

[xb3at band1tx]

Really digging ayton so far, his pnr floater is so damn lethal

also really surprised by the quality and quantity of his screens

[xb3at band1tx]

jesus

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