2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1261 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Mar 5, 2025 7:04 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:Derozan making HOF because he scored as many points as like Shaq is going to be painful. I guess if he doesn't get to 30k there's still a chance he misses.


Well so first, obviously, I'm with you. I don't think DeRozan should be in the Hall.

Re: 30K. Y'know, the thing I always ask is:

Do we have any evidence that voters make decisions based on cume stats? They've always talked like this in baseball, but I don't remember it ever being what a voter has used as his explanation for his vote.

Of course there can always be a first time people use it, I just think we need to remember that correlation is not causation.

A classic example:

Has there ever been an NBA MVP note make the Hall? No.
Has there ever been an NBA MVP whose career amounted to as little as Derrick Rose? No.

So maybe Rose makes it because of the MVP, or maybe it's just that NBA MVPs typically have HOF level careers.

And thus, maybe DeRozan makes it just because he was allowed to volume score for 15 years, or maybe voters will make the decision primarily based on how valuable they think he actually was in his prime and only use longevity as a tiebreaker. From there, they believe whatever they believe.

Now, I like everyone else has the experience of seeing other guys I wouldn't vote in get in, so I'm not counting on voters seeing things like me...but I have to say:

I think DeRozan might actually be the least worthy guy to make the Hall if he makes it. That's not meant as vague hyperbole, that's me rating him below guys like Michael Cooper and Mitch Richmond. I'd seriously rather see 2009 Draftmate Danny Green in the Hall (to say nothing of Jrue Holiday, Blake Griffin, and of course Curry & Harden) than see DeRozan get there.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1262 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Mar 5, 2025 7:39 pm

annual reminder that the basketball hall of fame is not the NBA hall of fame and that its never been as exclusive as the MLB or NFL have chosen to be.

We can disagree with that approach or feel the NBA should start their own, but when deciding who is or isn't "worthy", we do need to understand the context of the Hall itself and not what we want it to be.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1263 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Mar 5, 2025 7:47 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:annual reminder that the basketball hall of fame is not the NBA hall of fame and that its never been as exclusive as the MLB or NFL have chosen to be.

We can disagree with that approach or feel the NBA should start their own, but when deciding who is or isn't "worthy", we do need to understand the context of the Hall itself and not what we want it to be.


Absolutely true and my preferences aren't the Hoop Hall's preferences...but I don't think DeRozan really did anything outside of the NBA that needs to be factored in. I think if he gets in, it's going to be based on his NBA career.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1264 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Mar 5, 2025 7:52 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Absolutely true and my preferences aren't the Hoop Hall's preferences...but I don't think DeRozan really did anything outside of the NBA that needs to be factored in. I think if he gets in, it's going to be based on his NBA career.


I think he gets in. I think his totals will be what they are. Then voters can point to two all-NBA 2nd teams, another 3rd as proof he peaked as a top 10 player, he has a gold medal. They can sell its not just longevity.

Plus I think some of the older voters will especially want to include him because in the era of the 3-pointer, he did it mostly by shooting 2's. And you hear the same complaining about the state of the game that I do to understand that's at least a possibility.*

*I personally have zero issues with teams shooting a billion 3's if they believe its their best chance to win. But lots of people disagree with me and many of them have votes....
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1265 » by f4p » Wed Mar 5, 2025 9:14 pm

AEnigma wrote:.

I am more annoyed that Demar is more likely to make the cut than Lowry is, even though Lowry was consistently better and more valuable.

.


BBref has Lowry at 86% probability so his championship might get him a lot of help based on historical voting trends.

Agree with everyone that DeRozan will be an extremely weak HOFer. His playoff on/offs are just impossibly bad.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1266 » by OhayoKD » Wed Mar 5, 2025 10:35 pm

Zioin getting wild hype off playing well vs a team without bigs
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1267 » by falcolombardi » Wed Mar 5, 2025 10:38 pm

Aftee the early slump where okc offense was like a +2 (carried by shai and possesion advantage out of steals and low turnovers) and all our guys shot badly from 3

Okc now is a top 5 offense for the season, with the best offense since january 1st and within striking distance of 2nd place. unlikely we catch up to cleveland but there is a very long shot chance if cavs slow a bit that okc could finish the year as 1st in both ends ot at least 1st on D and 2nd on O

Will be interesting to follow if it happens since i cannot think of many teams who were top 2 in both ends
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1268 » by sp6r=underrated » Thu Mar 6, 2025 5:18 am

falcolombardi wrote:Knicks are such a good team with so many good players that it actually shocks me how bad they are vs the league top 3 record teams (okc, cavs, bos)

Is like they are good enough to be taken fully seriously and game planned for but not good enough to actually match up to them


In boxing terms, this Knicks team is a gatekeeper. They are good enough to beat any of the pretenders but when they play the actual title contenders they are fully out classed.

I'm still happy with this club so that isn't said with sadness.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1269 » by Special_Puppy » Thu Mar 6, 2025 5:31 am

falcolombardi wrote:Aftee the early slump where okc offense was like a +2 (carried by shai and possesion advantage out of steals and low turnovers) and all our guys shot badly from 3

Okc now is a top 5 offense for the season, with the best offense since january 1st and within striking distance of 2nd place. unlikely we catch up to cleveland but there is a very long shot chance if cavs slow a bit that okc could finish the year as 1st in both ends ot at least 1st on D and 2nd on O

Will be interesting to follow if it happens since i cannot think of many teams who were top 2 in both ends


Think I’ve referenced this before, but DARKO has team ratings this season that using the entire season, but weighs recent games more. OKC now has the number 2 offense in the league now. Flip side is that the defense is not quite an outlier as it used to be https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UFev1ZRjl-T4cCGslRc9IeiBwPh84Khl_JFjokJ_sj8/edit
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1270 » by Special_Puppy » Thu Mar 6, 2025 5:31 am

OhayoKD wrote:Zioin getting wild hype off playing well vs a team without bigs


He’s been objectively very good recently.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1271 » by Special_Puppy » Thu Mar 6, 2025 5:46 am

f4p wrote:
AEnigma wrote:.

I am more annoyed that Demar is more likely to make the cut than Lowry is, even though Lowry was consistently better and more valuable.

.


BBref has Lowry at 86% probability so his championship might get him a lot of help based on historical voting trends.

Agree with everyone that DeRozan will be an extremely weak HOFer. His playoff on/offs are just impossibly bad.


Forget the playoffs, he has a negative *regular season* on/off in his career
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1272 » by EmpireFalls » Thu Mar 6, 2025 5:52 am

I’m just whispering this, very quietly, but Kuzma and KPJ have actually made the Bucks meaningfully better. I could credibly see Giannis/Dame go nuclear and steal some games from Boston/Cleveland now.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1273 » by penbeast0 » Thu Mar 6, 2025 12:39 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Absolutely true and my preferences aren't the Hoop Hall's preferences...but I don't think DeRozan really did anything outside of the NBA that needs to be factored in. I think if he gets in, it's going to be based on his NBA career.


I think he gets in. I think his totals will be what they are. Then voters can point to two all-NBA 2nd teams, another 3rd as proof he peaked as a top 10 player, he has a gold medal. They can sell its not just longevity.

Plus I think some of the older voters will especially want to include him because in the era of the 3-pointer, he did it mostly by shooting 2's. And you hear the same complaining about the state of the game that I do to understand that's at least a possibility.*

*I personally have zero issues with teams shooting a billion 3's if they believe its their best chance to win. But lots of people disagree with me and many of them have votes....


I don't think he was ever a top 10 player (though the 2 All-NBA 1 awards say that voters disagree) so I think he just didn't bring enough unless he is an outlier in some other way like longevity.

*I absolutely believe that a team should play to win and if the rules are set up to spam 3's, teams should strongly consider doing that depending on their personnel. I do think the rules/refereeing should be tweaked to eliminate some of the easier 3s like keeping the line all the way out at the sides as the shot is just too easy for NBA caliber athletes sometimes. Of course I also think they should call carry, travel, and moving screens so I'm absolutely a dinosaur.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1274 » by yoyoboy » Thu Mar 6, 2025 4:54 pm

falcolombardi wrote:Aftee the early slump where okc offense was like a +2 (carried by shai and possesion advantage out of steals and low turnovers) and all our guys shot badly from 3

Okc now is a top 5 offense for the season, with the best offense since january 1st and within striking distance of 2nd place. unlikely we catch up to cleveland but there is a very long shot chance if cavs slow a bit that okc could finish the year as 1st in both ends ot at least 1st on D and 2nd on O

Will be interesting to follow if it happens since i cannot think of many teams who were top 2 in both ends

It would require a pretty epic collapse by Cleveland. If Cleveland's ORTG these last 20 games fell by 8 points relative to their season average while OKC's ORTG these final 20 games rose by 8 points relative to their season average, they would barely edge them out for that #1 spot. I think #2 offense is within reach though.

Here are the teams that have had a top 2 offense and top 2 defense over the last 30 years:

2024 Boston (#1 O/#2 D)
2023 Boston (#2 O/#2 D)
2017 Golden State (#1 O/#2 D)
2015 Golden State (#2 O/#1 D)
1996 Chicago (#1 O/#1 D) - taken from BBR instead of NBA.com since their database doesn't go that far back, but they have enough margin for error where at worst they would be the #2 defense

So that would be pretty elite company. 4 out of 5 of those teams won the title. And the 5th, 2023 Boston was 1 game away from the Finals, and despite being top 2 on both ends, they were only a +6.7 Net Rating team that season. 2.9 points better than the median on defense and 3.0 points better than the median on offense. It was a season with more parity than most years. This season, OKC is 5.1 points better than the median on offense and around 8.0 points better on defense. Significantly more dominant on both ends than that Celtics team.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1275 » by Peregrine01 » Fri Mar 7, 2025 5:31 am

The on-ball creation that the Lakers have with Bron and Luka means that they’ll never hurt for a bad look. I think they’re a real threat to OKC.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1276 » by Special_Puppy » Fri Mar 7, 2025 5:33 am

Do we think that Luka has become a net positive on defense over the past 2 seasons? His metrics seem to be positive now
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1277 » by Special_Puppy » Fri Mar 7, 2025 5:37 am

Peregrine01 wrote:The on-ball creation that the Lakers have with Bron and Luka means that they’ll never hurt for a bad look. I think they’re a real threat to OKC.


The Lakers offense hasn’t been as great as you’d expect given that idea. It’s been good, but nowhere near the top offenses of the league
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1278 » by Peregrine01 » Fri Mar 7, 2025 5:38 am

Special_Puppy wrote:Do we think that Luka has become a net positive on defense over the past 2 seasons? His metrics seem to be positive now


I think the denigration of offensive superstars with massive offensive load was always a bit unfair. Given how important these guys are on offense, it just doesn’t make sense for them to expend a lot of energy on defense - especially during the regular season.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1279 » by EmpireFalls » Fri Mar 7, 2025 5:38 am

Peregrine01 wrote:The on-ball creation that the Lakers have with Bron and Luka means that they’ll never hurt for a bad look. I think they’re a real threat to OKC.

Two pretty bad looks at the end there … and Luka is gonna have foul issues every other game just like he did in the Finals.

The more I watch the more I feel that while we have a lot of good teams that elite level of OKC Boston Cleveland is just another tier of basketball
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1280 » by Peregrine01 » Fri Mar 7, 2025 5:39 am

Special_Puppy wrote:
Peregrine01 wrote:The on-ball creation that the Lakers have with Bron and Luka means that they’ll never hurt for a bad look. I think they’re a real threat to OKC.


The Lakers offense hasn’t been as great as you’d expect given that idea. It’s been good, but nowhere near the top offenses of the league


That’s fair. I was talking about the looks they were getting and the fact that they don’t lose a beat at any point during the game.

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