The Lebron Thread

[SideshowBob]

What's remarkable is that he could realistically be even better next season. I don't really expect any major athletic dropoff from this season to the next, but the room for improvement offensively is still vast. He can obviously continue to work on the jumper, particularly his creation off the dribble, which is nowhere near what it was in his first season in Miami and in 2010. His post-game is largely non-existent this season and the sky's the limit for how much he can develop there. He's at a career-high in % of assisted field goals made, but considering how efficient he's been as a spot-up shooter this season, that % should really be higher. He could put some work in on developing that off-ball game even more and putting himself in more spot up situations. Imagine how defenses would handle a Lebron that spaces the floor AND gets to the basket at will. It'd be chaotic.

[IG2]

6 days off until the Heat play again. He can heal a lot of the injuries and fatigue-related issues in that time-off. I expect him to be playing his best ball of the season after the break. Eye-test wise, anyway.

[PCProductions]

Prior to the 4th quarter his jumper was trash but his ability to finish at the rim was reminiscent of the 2012 playoffs. He even had a teardrop which he used to employ once or twice a game. In the fourth, however, he was cold blooded and put in an in-your-face dagger to seal it. By far this year's best performance offensively.

[SideshowBob]

Prior to the 4th quarter his jumper was trash but his ability to finish at the rim was reminiscent of the 2012 playoffs. He even had a teardrop which he used to employ once or twice a game. In the fourth, however, he was cold blooded and put in an in-your-face dagger to seal it. By far this year's best performance offensively.

Nah his ability to get to and finish at the rim was no where near this level in last years playoffs. In fact, I'd argue that his ability to actually finish at the rim has never been as good as it is now. He's not at his best at getting to the basket (08, 09) but his finishing is up there with his best seasons.

[PCProductions]

Prior to the 4th quarter his jumper was trash but his ability to finish at the rim was reminiscent of the 2012 playoffs. He even had a teardrop which he used to employ once or twice a game. In the fourth, however, he was cold blooded and put in an in-your-face dagger to seal it. By far this year's best performance offensively.

Nah his ability to get to and finish at the rim was no where near this level in last years playoffs. In fact, I'd argue that his ability to actually finish at the rim has never been as good as it is now. He's not at his best at getting to the basket (08, 09) but his finishing is up there with his best seasons.

Well I didn't look at any data at all to reinforce my statement, so I probably just remember the crazy ones, such as the one against the Knicks in crunch time that I think they ended up losing.

As far as GETTING to the rim, I think that has more to do with athleticism than anything else. I've accepted that we'll never see another Game 5 @ Detroit performance, but that doesn't mean he can't be as dominant in other ways.

[ardee]

Prior to the 4th quarter his jumper was trash but his ability to finish at the rim was reminiscent of the 2012 playoffs. He even had a teardrop which he used to employ once or twice a game. In the fourth, however, he was cold blooded and put in an in-your-face dagger to seal it. By far this year's best performance offensively.

Nah his ability to get to and finish at the rim was no where near this level in last years playoffs. In fact, I'd argue that his ability to actually finish at the rim has never been as good as it is now. He's not at his best at getting to the basket (08, 09) but his finishing is up there with his best seasons.

6 dunks and 7 layups out of 17 total field goals says it all. Man is a freight train right now in the most literal sense.

What do you see from him statistically this season, SideshowBob, in the regular season as well as the POs?

[SideshowBob]

6 dunks and 7 layups out of 17 total field goals says it all. Man is a freight train right now in the most literal sense.

What do you see from him statistically this season, SideshowBob, in the regular season as well as the POs?

He's been at 27.4/7.7/7.4 on 62.1% TS at about a 31 PER over his last 30 games. Take out the one flu game and the three games in this road trip where he was playing injured and its 28.5/7.6/7.4 on 63.5% TS and around a 33 PER. Cut it to when I thought he let up on the coasting a bit (home loss against NYK without Melo) and he's at 28.8/7.2/7.2 on 65.4% TS with a PER around 35. That's right around the level I expected him to be at for the season, but he got off to a slow start statistically, so that's obviously not going to happen for the full 82 games. I think he'll finish at just around 28/8/7.5 on around 63% TS for the season and a PER that's going to compete with 2009 for his regular season best (high 31s).

As for the playoffs, again, sky's the limit. If they're blowing teams out of the water in multiple series then I can't imagine his volume is going to get that high, but otherwise I'd say low 30s to go along with the usual 9 boards and 7 assists and 61-62% TS. Single season win share record for the playoffs will probably fall though, and it wouldn't surprise me if the scoring goes higher than that, which would put the PER record in play as well (though I expect ~35).

[PCProductions]

A little off topic, but does anybody know of a video database for full playoff games? I kinda wanna rewatch the 2008 Eastern Semis between Boston and Cleveland as well as the 2006 Wiz vs Cavs series.

[D.Brasco]

I can picture when lebron retires people looking back at his career in cleveland vs miami similar to how we look at shaq in orlando vs him in LA.

[LakerLegend]

Shaq probably peaked athletically from 96-99. His early Laker years he was more massive than Orlando but still as quick and agile.

[SideshowBob]

Changed the title as this has evolved into a general discussion thread rather than being a comparison thread

[ardee]

6 dunks and 7 layups out of 17 total field goals says it all. Man is a freight train right now in the most literal sense.

What do you see from him statistically this season, SideshowBob, in the regular season as well as the POs?

He's been at 27.4/7.7/7.4 on 62.1% TS at about a 31 PER over his last 30 games. Take out the one flu game and the three games in this road trip where he was playing injured and its 28.5/7.6/7.4 on 63.5% TS and around a 33 PER. Cut it to when I thought he let up on the coasting a bit (home loss against NYK without Melo) and he's at 28.8/7.2/7.2 on 65.4% TS with a PER around 35. That's right around the level I expected him to be at for the season, but he got off to a slow start statistically, so that's obviously not going to happen for the full 82 games. I think he'll finish at just around 28/8/7.5 on around 63% TS for the season and a PER that's going to compete with 2009 for his regular season best (high 31s).

As for the playoffs, again, sky's the limit. If they're blowing teams out of the water in multiple series then I can't imagine his volume is going to get that high, but otherwise I'd say low 30s to go along with the usual 9 boards and 7 assists and 61-62% TS. Single season win share record for the playoffs will probably fall though, and it wouldn't surprise me if the scoring goes higher than that, which would put the PER record in play as well (though I expect ~35).

Where do you get the average PER for a stretch of games.... Or do you use that spreadsheet available where you plug in the requisite numbers? Does that adjust for pace/average PER?

[SideshowBob]

6 dunks and 7 layups out of 17 total field goals says it all. Man is a freight train right now in the most literal sense.

What do you see from him statistically this season, SideshowBob, in the regular season as well as the POs?

He's been at 27.4/7.7/7.4 on 62.1% TS at about a 31 PER over his last 30 games. Take out the one flu game and the three games in this road trip where he was playing injured and its 28.5/7.6/7.4 on 63.5% TS and around a 33 PER. Cut it to when I thought he let up on the coasting a bit (home loss against NYK without Melo) and he's at 28.8/7.2/7.2 on 65.4% TS with a PER around 35. That's right around the level I expected him to be at for the season, but he got off to a slow start statistically, so that's obviously not going to happen for the full 82 games. I think he'll finish at just around 28/8/7.5 on around 63% TS for the season and a PER that's going to compete with 2009 for his regular season best (high 31s).

As for the playoffs, again, sky's the limit. If they're blowing teams out of the water in multiple series then I can't imagine his volume is going to get that high, but otherwise I'd say low 30s to go along with the usual 9 boards and 7 assists and 61-62% TS. Single season win share record for the playoffs will probably fall though, and it wouldn't surprise me if the scoring goes higher than that, which would put the PER record in play as well (though I expect ~35).

Where do you get the average PER for a stretch of games.... Or do you use that spreadsheet available where you plug in the requisite numbers? Does that adjust for pace/average PER?

Honestly, I've just been looking at the average Game Score for the stretches, adjust to 48 minutes and then adjust for pace. It's not exact but it's the closest estimate we can get without actually using the uPER formula and then adjusting.

[BattleTested]

Really really great game from Lebron yesterday. We couldn't do anything to stop him. He's at that level where when he's doing stuff like that you just kind of have to shake your head and hope one of your guys gets hot enough to match him.

[ardee]

Honestly, I've just been looking at the average Game Score for the stretches, adjust to 48 minutes and then adjust for pace. It's not exact but it's the closest estimate we can get without actually using the uPER formula and then adjusting.

So I applied that to Wade's average Game Score for that 8 game stretch he went berserk for in the '09 season and got 42.5

[SideshowBob]

Honestly, I've just been looking at the average Game Score for the stretches, adjust to 48 minutes and then adjust for pace. It's not exact but it's the closest estimate we can get without actually using the uPER formula and then adjusting.

So I applied that to Wade's average Game Score for that 8 game stretch he went berserk for in the '09 season and got 42.5

Haha, yeah I've just accepted the fact that that might be the best regular season stretch in at least the 3 point era. Its not every day a guy puts up 40/7/10/4/2 on 66% TS. To do it over 8 games

[SideshowBob]

Thoughts on the Birdman signing? His direct contributions aren't going to be huge, but I feel like the things he brings to the table might help take some pressure off Lebron.

I've seen a few people ask about Lebron's defense, and thought this might be a good time to get to it.

He's a guy who anchors the half-court defense from the perimeter by: covering as much of the floor as possible (horizontal game), playing disciplined within sets and forcing others to do the same (team defenses are designed to reduce overall opposing offensive efficiency, therefore, staying true to the system on a team level tends to produce better defensive results than an individual exerting effort on stopping an opposing individual), using his combination of length and quickness to rotate and recover VERY fast, using his versatility in defending the PnR as he can cover both the handler and the roll-man and be effective on the switch with virtually any combination. On top of that, he's also decent weak-side shot blocker, and has a great knack for playing the passing lanes.

This kind of defense:

A.) Creates a ton of turnovers. Miami is currently #8 in the league in oppTOV% and is trending upwards (they were #16 just a week ago). Last year, they were #3. In 2011, they were only #26, and the 2010 Cavs were only #24, but the 09 Cavs were #10.

Opponent TOV% with Lebron on the floor

Miami

2013: #1 (16.7%)
2012: #1 (18.5%)
2011: #5 (14.5%)

Cleveland

2010: #5 (14.3%)
2009: #1 (16.2%)



B.) Decreases efficiency on all shots away from the rim. Because of his length, quickness, and discipline on the perimeter, he usually helps anchor a perimeter defense that traps aggressively, prevents penetration, recovers quickly (shots are almost always at least partially contested), and is backed up by an smaller interior defense that denies position (also one of James staples). This forces either contested shots, or forced low-percentage shots. Lebron's defenses tend to allow much more attempts from 10-15 feet on average, while forcing all shots inside the 3-point line to be low-percentage.

In 2012, they allowed the 10th most attempts from 10-15 ft, but gave up only 35.7% of them (6th best). From 16-23 feet, they allowed the 19th most attempts, but gave up only 37.6% of them (12th). This year, they allow the 13th most attempts from 10-15 ft, but give up only 36.6% of them (3rd best). From 16-23 ft, they allow the 25th most attempts, but give up 36.6% of them (10th best). I'd delve into more seasons, but Hoopdata's site is being a pain right now.



C.) makes it difficult for the opposing offense to GET good shots and positioning near the rim. Again, here, its his versatility that comes into play. The perimeter defense he anchors and his smarts on the PnR make it difficult for the ball to get inside. On the flip side, his strength and length are often a great tool for ball-denial and single-coverage in the post. He's great at fronting guys and this can often take the league's better post scorers out of offensive action, instead of forcing them into bad shots. When they're able to get the ball, they still draw the attention of the defense, which creates offensive rebounding opportunities, easy buckets for off-ball guys on the move and open shots for guys on the perimeter. In these situation, James's man defense becomes important, because its often in the defenses best interest for him to force the player into a bad shot.

HOWEVER, when he forces ball-denial, it can throw the entire opposing offense out of whack. In sets designed to take advantage of an inside scorer (in the manner described above), James's aggressive fronting does a couple things. He forces precious time off the shot clock, giving less time for the rest of the team to create something, which tends to lead to a higher percentage of bad or contested shots OR turnover. He also likely denies the opposing offense their primary method of attack in the running play, forcing them to either start fresh, or exhibit some sort of counter or wrinkle, which again, tends to lead to a high probability of decreased offensive efficiency.

Again, we can see evidence of this in the team based stats.

Opponent FG% at Rim

Miami

2013: 61.6% (6th best)
2012: 57.7% (2nd best)
2011: 58.0% (1st best)

Cleveland

2010: 58.3% (6th best)
2009: 59.3% (6th best)

Keep in mind, this is without ANY prominent shot blockers on these teams. James was actually the team leader in total blocked shots in those two Cleveland years, and Anthony has typically been the leader in Miami, with just over 1 per game.

Opponent eFG% with Lebron on the floor

Miami

2013: 48.3% (#10)
2012: 47.7% (#8)
2011: 46.9% (#2)

Cleveland

2010: 48.2% (#3)
2009: 46.4% (#1)

Now, the last thing I'd get to is transition. Here, James is arguably the best in the league. He's typically extremely active in transition; he creates turnovers independently, we've seen him often just grabbing the ball out of the handler's hands, but he's also frequently looking for poorly timed passes. Furthermore, he's known for his shot-blocking on the break, which I'm starting to believe is getting a bit underrated.

Firstly, he's creating hesitation on the break and in transition this way. Transition baskets are generally the highest percentage baskets in the game; however, Lebron's shotblocking threat here can affect efficiency, which is crucial as its turning near-100% buckets into slightly lower ones. If that doesn't happen, we'll see the handler often slow it down to avoid the shotblock, and instead wait for the rest of the team to arrive in order to engage the offense. Again, this is always going to be less efficient in the long run than getting an easy transition bucket.

Second and less importantly, notice that he tends to block the shot directly off the backboard, which oftentimes not only allows Miami/Cleveland to maintain possession of the ball, but frequently triggers a fastbreak in the other direction. Even if this doesn't occur, the opposing team will almost ALWAYS be in a poor position to get into proper defensive positioning, and I'd wager that Miami/Cleveland's offensive efficiency on possessions after a Lebron chasedown block is noticeably higher than average. This is literally creating OFFENSE out of DEFENSE.

All-in-all, James is arguably the most dynamic defender in the league, and I can make this claim without giving his positional versatility much prominence at all. His overall contributions on help-defense and dominance in transition make him among the most impactful (the most in my mind, I'd argue he's the best since Pippen along with Artest, and there's evidence suggesting so in the form of the old multi-year APM and RAPM studies as well as the earlier RAPM figures) non-big defensive player in the league, and for that matter, he's better than a lot of elite prototypical bigs as well.

[starvinmarvin17]

Thoughts on the Birdman signing? His direct contributions aren't going to be huge, but I feel like the things he brings to the table might help take some pressure off Lebron.

I've seen a few people ask about Lebron's defense, and thought this might be a good time to get to it.

He's a guy who anchors the half-court defense from the perimeter by: covering as much of the floor as possible (horizontal game), playing disciplined within sets and forcing others to do the same (team defenses are designed to reduce overall opposing offensive efficiency, therefore, staying true to the system on a team level tends to produce better defensive results than an individual exerting effort on stopping an opposing individual), using his combination of length and quickness to rotate and recover VERY fast, using his versatility in defending the PnR as he can cover both the handler and the roll-man and be effective on the switch with virtually any combination. On top of that, he's also decent weak-side shot blocker, and has a great knack for playing the passing lanes.

This kind of defense:

A.) Creates a ton of turnovers. Miami is currently #8 in the league in oppTOV% and is trending upwards (they were #16 just a week ago). Last year, they were #3. In 2011, they were only #26, and the 2010 Cavs were only #24, but the 09 Cavs were #10.

Opponent TOV% with Lebron on the floor

Miami

2013: #1 (16.7%)
2012: #1 (18.5%)
2011: #5 (14.5%)

Cleveland

2010: #5 (14.3%)
2009: #1 (16.2%)



B.) Decreases efficiency on all shots away from the rim. Because of his length, quickness, and discipline on the perimeter, he usually helps anchor a perimeter defense that traps aggressively, prevents penetration, recovers quickly (shots are almost always at least partially contested), and is backed up by an smaller interior defense that denies position (also one of James staples). This forces either contested shots, or forced low-percentage shots. Lebron's defenses tend to allow much more attempts from 10-15 feet on average, while forcing all shots inside the 3-point line to be low-percentage.

In 2012, they allowed the 10th most attempts from 10-15 ft, but gave up only 35.7% of them (6th best). From 16-23 feet, they allowed the 19th most attempts, but gave up only 37.6% of them (12th). This year, they allow the 13th most attempts from 10-15 ft, but give up only 36.6% of them (3rd best). From 16-23 ft, they allow the 25th most attempts, but give up 36.6% of them (10th best). I'd delve into more seasons, but Hoopdata's site is being a pain right now.



C.) makes it difficult for the opposing offense to GET good shots and positioning near the rim. Again, here, its his versatility that comes into play. The perimeter defense he anchors and his smarts on the PnR make it difficult for the ball to get inside. On the flip side, his strength and length are often a great tool for ball-denial and single-coverage in the post. He's great at fronting guys and this can often take the league's better post scorers out of offensive action, instead of forcing them into bad shots. When they're able to get the ball, they still draw the attention of the defense, which creates offensive rebounding opportunities, easy buckets for off-ball guys on the move and open shots for guys on the perimeter. In these situation, James's man defense becomes important, because its often in the defenses best interest for him to force the player into a bad shot.

HOWEVER, when he forces ball-denial, it can throw the entire opposing offense out of whack. In sets designed to take advantage of an inside scorer (in the manner described above), James's aggressive fronting does a couple things. He forces precious time off the shot clock, giving less time for the rest of the team to create something, which tends to lead to a higher percentage of bad or contested shots OR turnover. He also likely denies the opposing offense their primary method of attack in the running play, forcing them to either start fresh, or exhibit some sort of counter or wrinkle, which again, tends to lead to a high probability of decreased offensive efficiency.

Again, we can see evidence of this in the team based stats.

Opponent FG% at Rim

Miami

2013: 61.6% (6th best)
2012: 57.7% (2nd best)
2011: 58.0% (1st best)

Cleveland

2010: 58.3% (6th best)
2009: 59.3% (6th best)

Keep in mind, this is without ANY prominent shot blockers on these teams. James was actually the team leader in total blocked shots in those two Cleveland years, and Anthony has typically been the leader in Miami, with just over 1 per game.

Opponent eFG% with Lebron on the floor

Miami

2013: 48.3% (#10)
2012: 47.7% (#8)
2011: 46.9% (#2)

Cleveland

2010: 48.2% (#3)
2009: 46.4% (#1)

Now, the last thing I'd get to is transition. Here, James is arguably the best in the league. He's typically extremely active in transition; he creates turnovers independently, we've seen him often just grabbing the ball out of the handler's hands, but he's also frequently looking for poorly timed passes. Furthermore, he's known for his shot-blocking on the break, which I'm starting to believe is getting a bit underrated.

Firstly, he's creating hesitation on the break and in transition this way. Transition baskets are generally the highest percentage baskets in the game; however, Lebron's shotblocking threat here can affect efficiency, which is crucial as its turning near-100% buckets into slightly lower ones. If that doesn't happen, we'll see the handler often slow it down to avoid the shotblock, and instead wait for the rest of the team to arrive in order to engage the offense. Again, this is always going to be less efficient in the long run than getting an easy transition bucket.

Second and less importantly, notice that he tends to block the shot directly off the backboard, which oftentimes not only allows Miami/Cleveland to maintain possession of the ball, but frequently triggers a fastbreak in the other direction. Even if this doesn't occur, the opposing team will almost ALWAYS be in a poor position to get into proper defensive positioning, and I'd wager that Miami/Cleveland's offensive efficiency on possessions after a Lebron chasedown block is noticeably higher than average. This is literally creating OFFENSE out of DEFENSE.

All-in-all, James is arguably the most dynamic defender in the league, and I can make this claim without giving his positional versatility much prominence at all. His overall contributions on help-defense and dominance in transition make him among the most impactful (the most in my mind, I'd argue he's the best since Pippen along with Artest, and there's evidence suggesting so in the form of the old multi-year APM and RAPM studies as well as the earlier RAPM figures) non-big defensive player in the league, and for that matter, he's better than a lot of elite prototypical bigs as well.

Jesus man you should be getting paid for your analysis.

[JordansBulls]

How do you see Birdman in the equation for the Heat? Is he someone that will come off the bench or start to help the rebounding?

[orangeparka]

How do you see Birdman in the equation for the Heat? Is he someone that will come off the bench or start to help the rebounding?

It really depends on his conditioning. Even if he's in top shape, I doubt he'll play much early on considering how Spo usually is with his rotations.

Worst case scenario, he becomes another Ronny Turiaf.