Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor)

[letskissbro]

SIngle year postseason data is next to useless. The 2001 Lakers are an all-time great team in the context of what they did in surrounding years. If their 2000 and 2002 titles never happened, no one would talk about them as an all-time great team. And of course not surprisingly their numbers come down to Earth quite a bit if you take the 2000-2002 postseasons combined and mind you that sample is still around 2/3 of a single season i.e. low sample size. Postseason data also has a tendency to be poorly representative of the entire sample. The Lakers during their threepeat for instance played a disproportionately large number of games against the Spurs, Kings, and Blazers.

Maybe in the case where there is a general trend that certain players' team rORtg numbers plummet in the postseason (like for instance Curry's) we can temper the impact of their regular season numbers a bit. But with Jordan that didn't happen at all. The Bulls from 1990-1993 and 1996-1998 had a whopping +7.5 rORtg in the playoffs over a 131 game sample. In those regular seasons they were an astounding +5.8 rORtg but we can see that they actually went up considerably in the playoffs.

lebron teams actually hold up exceptionally well in playoffs relative offensive ratings, including higher peaks (16,17) than jordan bulls

from a 2011-2017 stretch where he played with strong offensive talent he went


2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: + 4.5
2016:+12.5
2017:13.7

that is nearly a +9 relORTG average, 8.85 to be exact

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1lMHVWmmq6lEy9O9XqLk0Ji-xawtX8gPRtHHwbvV9634/htmlview#gid=999526014

What about 2018 and 2020? And 2009 and 2010? Why exclude those years? Perhaps the numbers aren't as good...

Anyways postseason numbers are super noisy... SUPER NOISY.

Expanding the sample:

LeBron

2009: +8.3
2010: +4.2
2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: +4.5
2016: +12.5
2017: +13.7
2018: +2.4
2020: +2.9

Average of +7.3 over 214 games

Jordan

1987: +2.6
1988: -2.6
1989: +3.9
1990: +4.0
1991: +11.7
1992: +6.5
1993: +9.8
1995: +4.6
1996: +8.6
1997: +6.0
1998: +6.5

Average of +6.3 over 172 games

[70sFan]

lebron teams actually hold up exceptionally well in playoffs relative offensive ratings, including higher peaks (16,17) than jordan bulls

from a 2011-2017 stretch where he played with strong offensive talent he went


2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: + 4.5
2016:+12.5
2017:13.7

that is nearly a +9 relORTG average, 8.85 to be exact

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1lMHVWmmq6lEy9O9XqLk0Ji-xawtX8gPRtHHwbvV9634/htmlview#gid=999526014

What about 2018 and 2020? And 2009 and 2010? Why exclude those years? Perhaps the numbers aren't as good...

Anyways postseason numbers are super noisy... SUPER NOISY.

Expanding the sample:

LeBron

2009: +8.3
2010: +4.2
2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: +4.5
2016: +12.5
2017: +13.7
2018: +2.4
2020: +2.9

Average of +7.3 over 214 games

Jordan

1987: +2.6
1988: -2.6
1989: +3.9
1990: +4.0
1991: +11.7
1992: +6.5
1993: +9.8
1995: +4.6
1996: +8.6
1997: +6.0
1998: +6.5

Average of +6.3 over 172 games

Magic

1982: +7.4
1983: +3.9
1984: +7.5
1985: +9.9
1986: +6.7
1987: 10.7
1988: +8.3
1989: +9.3
1990: +8.4
1991: +5.9

Average of +7.9 over 168 games

Shaq

1995: +8.3
1996: +10.0
1997: +5.8
1998: +10.1
1999: +4.7
2000: +9.3
2001: +13.6
2002: +6.4
2003: +6.2
2004: +4.5

Average of +8.0 over 155 games

If that's the argument for James, then Shaq and Magic have even better results.

[LukaTheGOAT]

What about 2018 and 2020? And 2009 and 2010? Why exclude those years? Perhaps the numbers aren't as good...

Anyways postseason numbers are super noisy... SUPER NOISY.

Expanding the sample:

LeBron

2009: +8.3
2010: +4.2
2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: +4.5
2016: +12.5
2017: +13.7
2018: +2.4
2020: +2.9

Average of +7.3 over 214 games

Jordan

1987: +2.6
1988: -2.6
1989: +3.9
1990: +4.0
1991: +11.7
1992: +6.5
1993: +9.8
1995: +4.6
1996: +8.6
1997: +6.0
1998: +6.5

Average of +6.3 over 172 games

Magic

1982: +7.4
1983: +3.9
1984: +7.5
1985: +9.9
1986: +6.7
1987: 10.7
1988: +8.3
1989: +9.3
1990: +8.4
1991: +5.9

Average of +7.9 over 168 games

Shaq

1995: +8.3
1996: +10.0
1997: +5.8
1998: +10.1
1999: +4.7
2000: +9.3
2001: +13.6
2002: +6.4
2003: +6.2
2004: +4.5

Average of +8.0 over 155 games

If that's the argument for James, then Shaq and Magic have even better results.

I mean that's one of the arguments, not the only one. And plenty of people consider Magic a better offensive player than Lebron. With Shaq, I think people might argue while he had the largest impact on those offenses, playing with Kobe and Penny, elite creators, was a big reason for those offenses reaching the heights they did. After all, creation estimates believe Penny and Kobe created more than Shaq.

[70sFan]

Expanding the sample:

LeBron

2009: +8.3
2010: +4.2
2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: +4.5
2016: +12.5
2017: +13.7
2018: +2.4
2020: +2.9

Average of +7.3 over 214 games

Jordan

1987: +2.6
1988: -2.6
1989: +3.9
1990: +4.0
1991: +11.7
1992: +6.5
1993: +9.8
1995: +4.6
1996: +8.6
1997: +6.0
1998: +6.5

Average of +6.3 over 172 games

Magic

1982: +7.4
1983: +3.9
1984: +7.5
1985: +9.9
1986: +6.7
1987: 10.7
1988: +8.3
1989: +9.3
1990: +8.4
1991: +5.9

Average of +7.9 over 168 games

Shaq

1995: +8.3
1996: +10.0
1997: +5.8
1998: +10.1
1999: +4.7
2000: +9.3
2001: +13.6
2002: +6.4
2003: +6.2
2004: +4.5

Average of +8.0 over 155 games

If that's the argument for James, then Shaq and Magic have even better results.

I mean that's one of the arguments, not the only one. And plenty of people consider Magic a better offensive player than Lebron. With Shaq, I think people might argue while he had the largest impact on those offenses, playing with Kobe and Penny, elite creators, was a big reason for those offenses reaching the heights they did. After all, creation estimates believe Penny and Kobe created more than Shaq.

Sure, but then we should realize that James's teams advantage over Jordan's could also be caused by other factors.

I have Magic as the GOAT offensive player by the way. Also, here are West teams stats:

1962: +4.7
1963: +8.6
1964: +3.0
1965: +6.9
1966: +7.8
1968: +4.1
1969: +0.6
1970: +5.1

Average of +5.0 in 71 games.

[sansterre]

Magic

1982: +7.4
1983: +3.9
1984: +7.5
1985: +9.9
1986: +6.7
1987: 10.7
1988: +8.3
1989: +9.3
1990: +8.4
1991: +5.9

Average of +7.9 over 168 games

Shaq

1995: +8.3
1996: +10.0
1997: +5.8
1998: +10.1
1999: +4.7
2000: +9.3
2001: +13.6
2002: +6.4
2003: +6.2
2004: +4.5

Average of +8.0 over 155 games

If that's the argument for James, then Shaq and Magic have even better results.

I mean that's one of the arguments, not the only one. And plenty of people consider Magic a better offensive player than Lebron. With Shaq, I think people might argue while he had the largest impact on those offenses, playing with Kobe and Penny, elite creators, was a big reason for those offenses reaching the heights they did. After all, creation estimates believe Penny and Kobe created more than Shaq.

Sure, but then we should realize that James's teams advantage over Jordan's could also be caused by other factors.

I have Magic as the GOAT offensive player by the way. Also, here are West teams stats:

1962: +4.7
1963: +8.6
1964: +3.0
1965: +6.9
1966: +7.8
1968: +4.1
1969: +0.6
1970: +5.1

Average of +5.0 in 71 games.

Totally fair. And if someone were using these PO offensive ratings for a "LeBron's offensive value > Jordan's offensive value" I think it'd have to be taken with a pretty big grain of salt.

However, this evidence was only introduced to counter the "LeBron always had great teammates and never created strong offenses" position. Which I think it does fairly well (though I am biased, since I'm the one that introduced it).

[letskissbro]

What about 2018 and 2020? And 2009 and 2010? Why exclude those years? Perhaps the numbers aren't as good...

Anyways postseason numbers are super noisy... SUPER NOISY.

Expanding the sample:

LeBron

2009: +8.3
2010: +4.2
2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: +4.5
2016: +12.5
2017: +13.7
2018: +2.4
2020: +2.9

Average of +7.3 over 214 games

Jordan

1987: +2.6
1988: -2.6
1989: +3.9
1990: +4.0
1991: +11.7
1992: +6.5
1993: +9.8
1995: +4.6
1996: +8.6
1997: +6.0
1998: +6.5

Average of +6.3 over 172 games

Magic

1982: +7.4
1983: +3.9
1984: +7.5
1985: +9.9
1986: +6.7
1987: 10.7
1988: +8.3
1989: +9.3
1990: +8.4
1991: +5.9

Average of +7.9 over 168 games

Shaq

1995: +8.3
1996: +10.0
1997: +5.8
1998: +10.1
1999: +4.7
2000: +9.3
2001: +13.6
2002: +6.4
2003: +6.2
2004: +4.5

Average of +8.0 over 155 games

If that's the argument for James, then Shaq and Magic have even better results.

I'm not sure if you're following. The argument and issue is against Ben's portability nonsense and listing Shaq and Magic's team rORtgs kinda helps with that if anything. Evidently LeBron brought his teams to similar heights as all the guys Ben listed as supposed highly portable top tier offensive players while playing with comparable to worse talent and fit depending on the year. So a portability deduction to the point that he's a tier below Jordan, Magic, and Curry as he said in his podcast is completely unfounded. I don't care about the specific order but he should be right there with them.

[migya]

One of the ways I put it about Hakeem Olajuwon was;

I saw Olajuwon play myself and he was one of the best creators for his teammates that there was. Kenny Smith, Vernon Maxwell and the rest of his below average roster wouldn't have lasted anywhere else in the nba. Olajuwon's skills offensively, which were more allround and versatile than any other big allowed for teammates to cut to the basket and not play primarily on the outside because of the lane being clogged, like with Shaq and even Kareem.

Not sure what you mean? A lot of those players were in the league before and after Olajuwon and most of them were pretty good. Kenny Smith and Vernon Maxwell were not stars but they were certainly good players.

Sam Cassell, Clyde Drexler, Robert Horry, Otis Thorpe all had good careers.

They did little when they didn't play with Olajuwon.

[Ainosterhaspie]

Post season may be noisy, but regular season is full of distorted data. Post season everyone is giving their all. The game planning is stronger. Only the best teams are involved. Regular season guys may not play due to injuries they would play through in post season. Rosters are in Flux. Teams are testing lineups and schemes and possibly holding some material back for the post season. Veteran players, especially on teams that have regularly contended, pace themselves gearing up for Post season play, while young guys with something to prove may play all out at a level they can't sustain in the post season.

The season is a race. It doesn't matter if you lead through three laps if it's a four lap race. They guy with the stronger kick that was holding back and unleashes himself the last lap wins even if he passes the other guy in the last 10 yards. Doesn't mean the last lap was a fluke. He had the better plan for the whole race and the last lap means more than the first three.

I don't want to stretch that race analogy too far and I get that sometimes people can have anomalous games, series or even entire post season runs that aren't necessarily reflective of their baseline talent levels. But if you exceed or fall well below, that's establishing a range if nothing else. There's something to look at if one guy's level is consistently high and another is constantly hitting lower valleys and higher peaks.

2018 Warriors, LeBron post 2013, many Shaq years, later year Garnett Celtics all were less impressive during seasons than in post season. All had been there repeatedly and had a different gear they used in the post season out of boredom or necessity or something else.

[falcolombardi]

Expanding the sample:

LeBron

2009: +8.3
2010: +4.2
2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: +4.5
2016: +12.5
2017: +13.7
2018: +2.4
2020: +2.9

Average of +7.3 over 214 games

Jordan

1987: +2.6
1988: -2.6
1989: +3.9
1990: +4.0
1991: +11.7
1992: +6.5
1993: +9.8
1995: +4.6
1996: +8.6
1997: +6.0
1998: +6.5

Average of +6.3 over 172 games

Magic

1982: +7.4
1983: +3.9
1984: +7.5
1985: +9.9
1986: +6.7
1987: 10.7
1988: +8.3
1989: +9.3
1990: +8.4
1991: +5.9

Average of +7.9 over 168 games

Shaq

1995: +8.3
1996: +10.0
1997: +5.8
1998: +10.1
1999: +4.7
2000: +9.3
2001: +13.6
2002: +6.4
2003: +6.2
2004: +4.5

Average of +8.0 over 155 games

If that's the argument for James, then Shaq and Magic have even better results.

I'm not sure if you're following. The argument and issue is against Ben's portability nonsense and listing Shaq and Magic's team rORtgs kinda helps with that if anything. Evidently LeBron brought his teams to similar heights as all the guys Ben listed as supposed highly portable top tier offensive players while playing with comparable to worse talent and fit depending on the year. So a portability deduction to the point that he's a tier below Jordan, Magic, and Curry as he said in his podcast is completely unfounded. I don't care about the specific order but he should be right there with them.

also, players like bird or curry before durant have lower playoff ofenses than the less portable lebron/magic nash

[Djoker]

lebron teams actually hold up exceptionally well in playoffs relative offensive ratings, including higher peaks (16,17) than jordan bulls

from a 2011-2017 stretch where he played with strong offensive talent he went


2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: + 4.5
2016:+12.5
2017:13.7

that is nearly a +9 relORTG average, 8.85 to be exact

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1lMHVWmmq6lEy9O9XqLk0Ji-xawtX8gPRtHHwbvV9634/htmlview#gid=999526014

What about 2018 and 2020? And 2009 and 2010? Why exclude those years? Perhaps the numbers aren't as good...

Anyways postseason numbers are super noisy... SUPER NOISY.

Expanding the sample:

LeBron

2009: +8.3
2010: +4.2
2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: +4.5
2016: +12.5
2017: +13.7
2018: +2.4
2020: +2.9

Average of +7.3 over 214 games

Jordan

1987: +2.6
1988: -2.6
1989: +3.9
1990: +4.0
1991: +11.7
1992: +6.5
1993: +9.8
1995: +4.6
1996: +8.6
1997: +6.0
1998: +6.5

Average of +6.3 over 172 games

I just tabulated the career postseason rORtg numbers:

Jordan: +6.3 over 179 games
Lebron: +5.9 over 260 games

i picked that period cause is prime lebron + strong supporting casts (which were a lot more limited the year prior -2010- or after -2018- )

so i thought it was the best continuous period of prime lebron postseason offensive ability, 2003-2008 being a bit too much below in impact and 2018 a bit too alone in the roster

and it also fit nicely in the amount of seasons (6) you used for jordan so it seemed like a fair comparision

if i expand to include lebron whole prime regardless of cast, what do you consider jordan prime to be. for a fair comparision?

1987-1998 (minus 95) ?

2018 the Cavs played a very offensively slanted lineup with Lebron surrounded by shooters. Considering his strong offensive numbers when Kyrie sat, this version of the Cavs had no reason not to post terrific rORtg numbers.

Also why exclude the 2020 Lakers...?

I posted their entire career numbers above. Jordan actually comes out slightly ahead. Of course I wouldn't put much weight on that data still.

However, this evidence was only introduced to counter the "LeBron always had great teammates and never created strong offenses" position. Which I think it does fairly well (though I am biased, since I'm the one that introduced it).

It's hard to argue that Jordan didn't create better offenses though. His teams have better regular season rORtg, roughly equal playoff rORtg (which is a very noisy stat to begin with...). And of course we see that team offense edge for Jordan despite obviously lesser offensive talent. It doesn't matter what side of the argument you're on. If people don't flat out acknowledge that Pippen/Grant and Pippen/Kukoc are inferior offensive casts to Wade/Bosh, Kyrie/Love and Davis/whoever then this argument isn't worth having for me.

Post season may be noisy, but regular season is full of distorted data. Post season everyone is giving their all. The game planning is stronger. Only the best teams are involved. Regular season guys may not play due to injuries they would play through in post season. Rosters are in Flux. Teams are testing lineups and schemes and possibly holding some material back for the post season. Veteran players, especially on teams that have regularly contended, pace themselves gearing up for Post season play, while young guys with something to prove may play all out at a level they can't sustain in the post season.

The season is a race. It doesn't matter if you lead through three laps if it's a four lap race. They guy with the stronger kick that was holding back and unleashes himself the last lap wins even if he passes the other guy in the last 10 yards. Doesn't mean the last lap was a fluke. He had the better plan for the whole race and the last lap means more than the first three.

I don't want to stretch that race analogy too far and I get that sometimes people can have anomalous games, series or even entire post season runs that aren't necessarily reflective of their baseline talent levels. But if you exceed or fall well below, that's establishing a range if nothing else. There's something to look at if one guy's level is consistently high and another is constantly hitting lower valleys and higher peaks.

2018 Warriors, LeBron post 2013, many Shaq years, later year Garnett Celtics all were less impressive during seasons than in post season. All had been there repeatedly and had a different gear they used in the post season out of boredom or necessity or something else.

I don't disagree with this post.

And I feel it's becoming particularly true in the modern era. Since load management started in San Antonio about 10 years ago I think the whole league has begun to emulate it and quality has greatly suffered in the regular season. That's for another topic but the value of regular season performance has become questionable. "Does anyone care if a guy drops 35 ppg in the regular season when the opposing teams don't care most of the time?" A question like that has become a legit question to ask.

I really wonder what the breadth of the implications of that are though... If we start to ignore the regular season and focus on the playoffs when teams are giving their best we're getting extremely noisy data sets to compare players. That's kind of the problem with this entire greatest peaks series. Comparing 1-2 best years is a fun endeavor but ultimately fruitless because there is so much noise in the data. That's why Ben himself ultimately used surrounding years to justify his peak evaluations for all players he could. For instance he used post 2004 Duncan to temper his astronomical value in the 2002 and 2003 postseasons. Which makes sense due to the extreme noise in such small samples but perhaps also affects the valuations because Duncan may have actually been a noticeably lesser player in those latter years. And this situation may also be giving unfair advantages to modern players who can either put monster regular seasons stats more easily (like Westbrook, Harden, Giannis) or play at 70% capacity in the regular season and save themselves for the playoffs (Lebron post 2013, Durant post 2016 etc.). These situations heavily skew cross-era comparisons too... Like if I'm an MJ stan I can say "Give Jordan off nights every second back-to-back and play him 33 mpg instead of 40 mpg and he will average 40 ppg in the playoffs for his career." It's a dangerous precedent for any comparisons between eras.

Or we just acknowledge that cross-era comparisons are impossible and settle on Magic, Jordan, Shaq, and Lebron being the best offensive anchors of their eras and end it at that. But that's not fun...

[Colbinii]

I just tabulated the career postseason rORtg numbers:

Jordan: +6.3 over 179 games
Lebron: +5.9 over 260 games

Why would you not focus on Prime?

Its clear LeBron was much better starting in 2009-2018 and if we want to compare LeBron to having similar caliber teammates as Jordans prime, using 2011-2017 and 2020 makes the most sense in this comparison.

LeBron has played in almost 50% more playoff games than Jordan, holy ****.

[falcolombardi]

What about 2018 and 2020? And 2009 and 2010? Why exclude those years? Perhaps the numbers aren't as good...

Anyways postseason numbers are super noisy... SUPER NOISY.

Expanding the sample:

LeBron

2009: +8.3
2010: +4.2
2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: +4.5
2016: +12.5
2017: +13.7
2018: +2.4
2020: +2.9

Average of +7.3 over 214 games

Jordan

1987: +2.6
1988: -2.6
1989: +3.9
1990: +4.0
1991: +11.7
1992: +6.5
1993: +9.8
1995: +4.6
1996: +8.6
1997: +6.0
1998: +6.5

Average of +6.3 over 172 games

I just tabulated the career postseason rORtg numbers:

Jordan: +6.3 over 179 games
Lebron: +5.9 over 260 games

i picked that period cause is prime lebron + strong supporting casts (which were a lot more limited the year prior -2010- or after -2018- )

so i thought it was the best continuous period of prime lebron postseason offensive ability, 2003-2008 being a bit too much below in impact and 2018 a bit too alone in the roster

and it also fit nicely in the amount of seasons (6) you used for jordan so it seemed like a fair comparision

if i expand to include lebron whole prime regardless of cast, what do you consider jordan prime to be. for a fair comparision?

1987-1998 (minus 95) ?

2018 the Cavs played a very offensively slanted lineup with Lebron surrounded by shooters. Considering his strong offensive numbers when Kyrie sat, this version of the Cavs had no reason not to post terrific rORtg numbers.

Also why exclude the 2020 Lakers...?

I posted their entire career numbers above. Jordan actually comes out slightly ahead. Of course I wouldn't put much weight on that data still.

However, this evidence was only introduced to counter the "LeBron always had great teammates and never created strong offenses" position. Which I think it does fairly well (though I am biased, since I'm the one that introduced it).

It's hard to argue that Jordan didn't create better offenses though. His teams have better regular season rORtg, roughly equal playoff rORtg (which is a very noisy stat to begin with...). And of course we see that team offense edge for Jordan despite obviously lesser offensive talent. It doesn't matter what side of the argument you're on. If people don't flat out acknowledge that Pippen/Grant and Pippen/Kukoc are inferior offensive casts to Wade/Bosh, Kyrie/Love and Davis/whoever then this argument isn't worth having for me.

Post season may be noisy, but regular season is full of distorted data. Post season everyone is giving their all. The game planning is stronger. Only the best teams are involved. Regular season guys may not play due to injuries they would play through in post season. Rosters are in Flux. Teams are testing lineups and schemes and possibly holding some material back for the post season. Veteran players, especially on teams that have regularly contended, pace themselves gearing up for Post season play, while young guys with something to prove may play all out at a level they can't sustain in the post season.

The season is a race. It doesn't matter if you lead through three laps if it's a four lap race. They guy with the stronger kick that was holding back and unleashes himself the last lap wins even if he passes the other guy in the last 10 yards. Doesn't mean the last lap was a fluke. He had the better plan for the whole race and the last lap means more than the first three.

I don't want to stretch that race analogy too far and I get that sometimes people can have anomalous games, series or even entire post season runs that aren't necessarily reflective of their baseline talent levels. But if you exceed or fall well below, that's establishing a range if nothing else. There's something to look at if one guy's level is consistently high and another is constantly hitting lower valleys and higher peaks.

2018 Warriors, LeBron post 2013, many Shaq years, later year Garnett Celtics all were less impressive during seasons than in post season. All had been there repeatedly and had a different gear they used in the post season out of boredom or necessity or something else.

I don't disagree with this post.

And I feel it's becoming particularly true in the modern era. Since load management started in San Antonio about 10 years ago I think the whole league has begun to emulate it and quality has greatly suffered in the regular season. That's for another topic but the value of regular season performance has become questionable. "Does anyone care if a guy drops 35 ppg in the regular season when the opposing teams don't care most of the time?" A question like that has become a legit question to ask.

I really wonder what the breadth of the implications of that are though... If we start to ignore the regular season and focus on the playoffs when teams are giving their best we're getting extremely noisy data sets to compare players. That's kind of the problem with this entire greatest peaks series. Comparing 1-2 best years is a fun endeavor but ultimately fruitless because there is so much noise in the data. That's why Ben himself ultimately used surrounding years to justify his peak evaluations for all players he could. For instance he used post 2004 Duncan to temper his astronomical value in the 2002 and 2003 postseasons. Which makes sense due to the extreme noise in such small samples but perhaps also affects the valuations because Duncan may have actually been a noticeably lesser player in those latter years. And this situation may also be giving unfair advantages to modern players who can either put monster regular seasons stats more easily (like Westbrook, Harden, Giannis) or play at 70% capacity in the regular season and save themselves for the playoffs (Lebron post 2013, Durant post 2016 etc.). These situations heavily skew cross-era comparisons too... Like if I'm an MJ stan I can say "Give Jordan off nights every second back-to-back and play him 33 mpg instead of 40 mpg and he will average 40 ppg in the playoffs for his career." It's a dangerous precedent for any comparisons between eras.

Or we just acknowledge that cross-era comparisons are impossible and settle on Magic, Jordan, Shaq, and Lebron being the best offensive anchors of their eras and end it at that. But that's not fun...

career averages are skewed by jordan wizard years or lebron early years (since he came out of high school compared.to jordan 3.college years) but also because then is no longer a prime vs prime comparision

imo. the fairest for an averages comparision is either prime vs prime (with or without the good teammates caveat) or full career vs career...but starting lebron at roighly the same age aa jordan started (so i would start with 2007 or 2006) and not counting wizards years

[sansterre]

I just tabulated the career postseason rORtg numbers:

Jordan: +6.3 over 179 games
Lebron: +5.9 over 260 games

And of course we see that team offense edge for Jordan despite obviously lesser offensive talent. It doesn't matter what side of the argument you're on. If people don't flat out acknowledge that Pippen/Grant and Pippen/Kukoc are inferior offensive casts to Wade/Bosh, Kyrie/Love and Davis/whoever then this argument isn't worth having for me.

Here are your options:

Door #1: Prime LeBron led better playoff offenses in his prime than Jordan, but he also had more offensive talent around him.

Door #2: Jordan led better playoff offenses over their careers, but LeBron was racking up a lot of playoff games with very defensively-slanted rosters in his first Cleveland stint, so it's not as clear about who had more teammate talent.

It's a little disingenuous to go with the parts of each door that make Jordan look better, when the two are built on different premises.

[VanWest82]

Are we back to pretending like the quality of playoff competition in the East in 2010s was comparable to the 90s? Seems like a pretty suspect assumption to be baked in to all these numbers.

[falcolombardi]

[quote="VanWest82"]Are we back to pretending like the quality of playoff competition in the East in 2010s was comparable to the 90s? Seems like a pretty suspect assumption to be baked in to all these numbers.[/quote]

the comparision was offense only and it was adjusted to the rival teams defensive ratings

relative offensive rating meams how well you did in offense against that specific defense compared to their average, scoring 115 on a bad defense is worth less than scoring 115 on a good defense

and for whatever is worth, lebron played great defenses in the east, 2009 magic, 2010 celtics, 2011 bulls, 2013-2014 pacers, 2015 bulls were all elite defenses, many of them top 1 in those respective years

[VanWest82]

Are we back to pretending like the quality of playoff competition in the East in 2010s was comparable to the 90s? Seems like a pretty suspect assumption to be baked in to all these numbers.

the comparision was offense only and it was adjusted to the rival teams defensive ratings

relative offensive rating meams how well you did in offense against that specific defense compared to their average, scoring 115 on a bad defense is worth less than scoring 115 on a good defense

and for whatever is worth, lebron played great defenses in the east, 2009 magic, 2010 celtics, 2011 bulls, 2013-2014 pacers, 2015 bulls were all elite defenses, many of them top 1 in those respective years

Gotcha. For some reason I thought people were doing it relative to league average. Lebron did play some really good teams over the years but on the whole his level of competition in the East vs. West in the 2010s was as lopsided as any decade ever. Worth noting, I think.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Are we back to pretending like the quality of playoff competition in the East in 2010s was comparable to the 90s? Seems like a pretty suspect assumption to be baked in to all these numbers.

I don't know if this is the argument you want to make. Knocking Lebron's competition in the East is fair, but the one brightspot of playing in the East so many times, is that we saw Lebron against some really great defenses. The East's issues was never defensive resiliency, it was always they lacked the offensive star power to topple Lebron led teams.

[falcolombardi]

Are we back to pretending like the quality of playoff competition in the East in 2010s was comparable to the 90s? Seems like a pretty suspect assumption to be baked in to all these numbers.

the comparision was offense only and it was adjusted to the rival teams defensive ratings

relative offensive rating meams how well you did in offense against that specific defense compared to their average, scoring 115 on a bad defense is worth less than scoring 115 on a good defense

and for whatever is worth, lebron played great defenses in the east, 2009 magic, 2010 celtics, 2011 bulls, 2013-2014 pacers, 2015 bulls were all elite defenses, many of them top 1 in those respective years

Gotcha. For some reason I thought people were doing it relative to league average. Lebron did play some really good teams over the years but on the whole his level of competition in the East in the 2010s was likely the lowest for any conference relative to the other conference in any decade ever. Worth noting, I think.

maybe, up there with magic lakers in the 80's for the post merger era

that is a valid asterisk to lebron finals streak, not so for his teams offensive performance

[VanWest82]

Are we back to pretending like the quality of playoff competition in the East in 2010s was comparable to the 90s? Seems like a pretty suspect assumption to be baked in to all these numbers.

I don't know if this is the argument you want to make. Knocking Lebron's competition in the East is fair, but the one brightspot of playing in the East so many times, is that we saw Lebron against some really great defenses. The East's issues was never defensive resiliency, it was always they lacked the offensive star power to topple Lebron led teams.

And so if the real issue was that the East sucked on offense compared to the West, and due to scheduling the East obviously played each other more, then doesn't that mean the regular season DRTGs would be impacted favorably downward, and thus providing Lebron an unearned benefit in these results?

[falcolombardi]

Are we back to pretending like the quality of playoff competition in the East in 2010s was comparable to the 90s? Seems like a pretty suspect assumption to be baked in to all these numbers.

I don't know if this is the argument you want to make. Knocking Lebron's competition in the East is fair, but the one brightspot of playing in the East so many times, is that we saw Lebron against some really great defenses. The East's issues was never defensive resiliency, it was always they lacked the offensive star power to topple Lebron led teams.

And so if the real issue was that the East sucked on offense compared to the West, and due to scheduling the East obviously played each other more, then doesn't that mean the regular season DRTGs would be impacted favorably downward, and thus providing Lebron an unearned benefit in these results?

to some extent, who knows how much

since the difference between comferences is playing 22 extra east games instead of west games

that is the difference between east and west in offense, divided by a little less than 4 (since is almost a quarter of the season) applied as a handicap

i dont think it would be a big change but who knows

the rough and approximate way to calculate without getting into divisional matchups and all that would be

difference in offensive ratings of west amd east conferences (lets say 2 points difference between them for a high ish stimate)

2 x 22 = 44 points, basically make each east team half a point worse and lebron teams half a point worse in their off ratings

so if the difference between conferences in offense is so big as 2 points make lebron teams offennce half a point worse, if is smaller and only 1 point it would be a quarter of a point worse, etc

each point east sucks on offense would be like 0.27 points taken off lebron offense

however then you also would need to make sure west teams are not below average in defense amd their own offenses inflated....man this is complicated lol