2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

[70sFan]

Hilarious that now we are claiming Draymond was not still in his prime in 2022.

whats even more hilarious is claiming that a 35 yr old Butler still is in his prime.

I find both of these takes hilarious.

[OhayoKD]

Why didn’t more teams trade for Butler? Warriors didn’t really give up much and he only wanted a 2 year deal

Because steph is this generation's Duncan and is never allowed to play with less than 2 prime hall of famers would be my guess. Butler is just perfect from a "high IQ passing forward who plays defense" perspective like Iggy and dray, except he can also score 30 and get to the line. It was so weird how everyone acted like Butler forgot how to play just because he wanted 2 years of money.

Steph has arguably the best ring of this decade, and its been like 6 years since he's even played with one prime HOFer much less 2. Bron and KD have easily played more years with prime HOFers than Steph has.

"Prime" is doing alot of work for both of you.

Draymond impact post-KD

50-67 (34-wins without)
184-117 (45-wins with)

"Prime Hall-of-Famer" Kyrie Irving

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=cavaliers+record+with+and+without+kyrie+irving+from+2013-14+to+2017-18
Cleveland

(47-wins without, 50-with)

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=boston+record+with+and+without+kyrie+irving+from+2017-18+to+2018-19-19
Boston

(57-win without, 50-win with)

Lebron took Steph and Draymond and Klay to 6 without the aforementioned "prime hall-of-famer" (after sweeping a 60-win team basically without him) and then beat Steph and Draymond and Klay with him, two years after a postseason where he knocked off a better bad-boy Pistons without any of his teammates (due to injury) performing like they belonged in the hall-of-fame.


Duncan won two titles without a "prime" hall of famer and one without a hall-of-fame performer alongside carrying the Spurs to 50-60 wins ever year.

Steph is not analogous to Duncan at all. His actual analog is Jordan and if you want a big-man it's Shaq. All-time frontrun-- sorry,
"Ceiling Raisers"

[lessthanjake]

I think there’s an argument that Draymond had a short prime that was like 2015-2017 or 2015-2018. He was actually not a huge negative in those years in terms of scoring threat—his three-pointers in those years were okay enough that he wasn’t necessarily totally ignored, and he had higher scoring volume in general. The league also wasn’t quite as three-point-centric as it eventually became, so his shooting weakness wasn’t as much of a problem in the context of the league. His prime defensively was much longer and I do think it extended out to 2022, but I think his overall impact was definitely notably better in those 2015-2017 or 2015-2018 years, because he wasn’t an offensive negative those years, so there’s an argument that his prime was that shorter period. There’s also an argument that he had a fairly lengthy “prime” and those years I mentioned were just his peak.

[Special_Puppy]

I think there’s an argument that Draymond had a short prime that was like 2015-2017 or 2015-2018. He was actually not a huge negative in those years in terms of scoring threat—his three-pointers in those years were okay enough that he wasn’t necessarily totally ignored, and he had higher scoring volume in general. The league also wasn’t quite as three-point-centric as it eventually became, so his shooting weakness wasn’t as much of a problem in the context of the league. His prime defensively was much longer and I do think it extended out to 2022, but I think his overall impact was definitely notably better in those 2015-2017 or 2015-2018 years, because he wasn’t an offensive negative those years, so there’s an argument that his prime was that shorter period. There’s also an argument that he had a fairly lengthy “prime” and those years I mentioned were just his peak.

FWIW Draymond Green's Ranking in my Composite of Advanced Stats from 2015 to 2023
2015: 8
2016: 6
2017: 9
2018: 20
2019: 37
2020: 100
2021: 32
2022: 46
2023: 43

This supports the short prime thesis. Draymond's Offensive Impact went from +1.5 in 2015-2017 to -0.5 from 2018 to 2023 (excluding 2020). His defensive impact went from +3.8 to +3.2. So most of the decline happened on offensive side like you said

[Dr Positivity]

Didn't think this deserved its own thread, just more of a curiosity, and I wonder how people determine this:

Why has LeBron not been considered a PG outside of like his rookie year? He's been listed at SF and PF, but functionally, what makes his role any different than a guy like Magic or Nash? These were guys that were pretty ball-dominant and were the engines behind their offenses. I'm not making any remark about James not playing off ball or saying he couldn't...he obviously could and did very well, but he's been his teams' primary ball handler, decision maker, passer pretty much his entire career. Why does he not get the PG label? Is it because of his size? That doesn't make sense either, because Magic was listed at PG.

Is it because he played next to a PG? Again, Magic played next to other PGs and small guards, Chalmers isn't really any different than Byron Scott. Kyrie Irving is CLEARLY more of a SG.

IDK, I don't quite get how we differentiate LeBron's role in his teams' offenses from the role that other HOF PGs played for their teams. Which means, he should be considered a PG, no? He certainly doesn't play like your typical SF.

I don't see why players like Kyrie, Mo, and either Russell can't be the score first PG on Lebron's teams, they were established at those positions, and even Chalmers had been off ball "PG" beside Wade, plus in the heat situation if he's not PG Wade may be. Lebron is the best passer on the team but it's far from the only situation that's happened for non PG including Jokic now.

I'd call him PG from 04-08 and 18-21 which is not a bad chunk of time. I'm pretty surprised that Lebron is a PG like Magic didn't get more entrenched in those Daniel Gibson, Larry Hughes years as those are super obviously SGs.

In regards to Magic there is somewhat of a case of Norm Nixon being the PG, but I don't really see a reason to call Byron one. Plus Magic is more assist centric than Lebron for whatever it's worth.

[sp6r=underrated]

That Indy-Milwaukee ending was amazing.

[parsnips33]

Why didn’t more teams trade for Butler? Warriors didn’t really give up much and he only wanted a 2 year deal

Because steph is this generation's Duncan and is never allowed to play with less than 2 prime hall of famers would be my guess. Butler is just perfect from a "high IQ passing forward who plays defense" perspective like Iggy and dray, except he can also score 30 and get to the line. It was so weird how everyone acted like Butler forgot how to play just because he wanted 2 years of money.

Stopped reading after "this generation's Duncan" but this is so true. Some guys just win, and others rack up stats

[parsnips33]

Also agree that Steph is this generation's MJ, man some great takes this morning

[parsnips33]

Hilarious that now we are claiming Draymond was not still in his prime in 2022.

You think that was the last year of his prime? Or it extends further?

It's kinda an ambiguous term

[AEnigma]

Hilarious that now we are claiming Draymond was not still in his prime in 2022.

You think that was the last year of his prime? Or it extends further?

It's kinda an ambiguous term

For now I think his prime is ongoing. This attempted narrative by some that “primes” refer to a player’s absolute best years and nothing more feels at best oblivious and at worst outright deceptive. Yeah, Draymond’s offensive production and value have not been what they were in the 2010s, but he is still consistently one of the league’s best defenders (in a way that reliably translates to the postseason), and that is where the bulk of his impact has always been — which is a significant part of why all the metrics feeding in boxscore inputs have consistently been lower on him than rawer impact measures continue to be. Over the past five years, he is 23-20 without Steph, and Steph is 35-33 without him. As always, it is their synergy which makes the Warriors dangerous, and while it is certainly true that this later prime Draymond’s offensive value is almost completely tied to Steph, his defence is still the other main pillar of the team.

That said, Draymond has always been something of a postseason riser, so if we reach the postseason and he is unable to play heavier minutes in close games, or if Kerr needs to bench him outright at the end of close games, then that would indeed be a new point of distinction. It was not a concern in 2023 (or 2022), but I would not be completely shocked if two years down the line it had become more of an issue. Same with Butler, who two years ago led an incredible 8/1 upset and reached the Finals.

[parsnips33]

Hilarious that now we are claiming Draymond was not still in his prime in 2022.

You think that was the last year of his prime? Or it extends further?

It's kinda an ambiguous term

For now I think his prime is ongoing. This attempted narrative by some that “primes” refer to a player’s absolute best years and nothing more feels at best oblivious and at worst outright deceptive. Yeah, Draymond’s offensive production and value has not been what it was in the 2010s, but he is still consistently one of the league’s best defenders (in a way that reliably translates to the postseason), and that is where the bulk of his impact has always been — which is a significant part of why all the metrics feeding in boxscore inputs have consistently been lower on him than rawer impact measures continue to be. Over the past five years, he is 23-20 without Steph, and Steph is 35-33 without him. As always, it is their synergy which makes the Warriors dangerous, and while it is certainly true that this later prime Draymond’s offensive value is almost completely tied to Steph, his defence is still the other main pillar of the team.

That said, Draymond has always been something of a postseason riser, so if we reach the postseason and he is unable to play heavier minutes in close games, or if Kerr needs to bench him outright at the end of close games, then that would indeed be a new point of distinction. It was not a concern in 2023 (or 2022), but I would not be completely shocked if two years down the line it had become more of an issue. Same with Butler, who two years ago led an incredible 8/1 upset and reached the Finals.

Draymond definitely still has a ton of impact and I'd still say he's one of the best defensive players in the league.

Again I just think the term "prime" is so ambiguous as to just invite these kinds of semantic disagreements - is it just retaining any value above a certain threshold? is it retaining a certain amount of value relative to one's peak?

LeBron has been extremely productive this year - would it be reasonable to say he's in his prime now at age 40?

[AEnigma]

I agree it can be fuzzy, and Lebron is one of the best illustrations (did the Solomon Hill injury definitively push him into a post-prime period, or is this merely “late/extended prime”?), but I think the idea of short primes — e.g. Penny Hardaway, Grant Hill, Brandon Roy, Derrick Rose, Bill Walton, etc. — should convey something different from “this player was at his best and then was not quite as good”. But the other trick is that these assessments should fundamentally be retroactive, and to illustrate that idea I think the more interesting comparison is with Duncan and Garnett.

If you believe 2010-12 Garnett is “post-prime” despite being one of the league’s two best defenders and nearly winning two titles, then sure, guys like Curry and Draymond exited their primes in 2019, no retroactive analysis required… but to me it seems so much easier to just qualify it as a late/extended prime so we do not confuse it with those 2013-16 years. Now, Duncan was arguably even more stark with the shift from “best player in the league”-level in 2007 to more regular all-NBA-level from 2009-15… and given that he had just one year where he was unequivocally “post-prime”, I can see there being a little more actual use to the designation.

When I say “post-prime Duncan”, most people are probably not going to think of 2016 Duncan and only 2016 Duncan; however, when I say “post-prime Garnett”, it feels like there would be a legitimate question as to whether I mean the guy who was still one of the league’s most impactful players but just no longer an MVP contender, or the guy who was essentially a shell of himself. Same idea with Kareem: when I say “post-prime” Kareem, do you think 1987-89 because he was no longer all-NBA, or so you think 1981-86 because he was no longer an MVP?

If Draymond rapidly drops off and then retires, in a way analogous to 2016 Duncan, then I could probably see people being able to intuitively understand this period as his “post-prime” because there would be little alternative. But what if he drops off next year, then just hangs around for a while as a bench player or fringe starter? Should that reasonably be grouped in with these past five years?

The only player where I think the use of “late/extended prime” can validly be confusing is with Lebron, because his “late/extended prime” could be understood to refer to a year like 2020 in much the way that “early prime” is understood to refer to years like 2005-07. For the most part though, I think it makes much more sense to just acknowledge those stretched primes as distinct from a player’s absolute best years than to arbitrarily group them with functionally irrelevant years on the basis of some needless binary of “prime is when you were at your best and everything else is not prime”.

[lessthanjake]

Hilarious that now we are claiming Draymond was not still in his prime in 2022.

You think that was the last year of his prime? Or it extends further?

It's kinda an ambiguous term

For now I think his prime is ongoing. This attempted narrative by some that “primes” refer to a player’s absolute best years and nothing more feels at best oblivious and at worst outright deceptive. Yeah, Draymond’s offensive production and value have not been what they were in the 2010s, but he is still consistently one of the league’s best defenders (in a way that reliably translates to the postseason), and that is where the bulk of his impact has always been — which is a significant part of why all the metrics feeding in boxscore inputs have consistently been lower on him than rawer impact measures continue to be. Over the past five years, he is 23-20 without Steph, and Steph is 35-33 without him. As always, it is their synergy which makes the Warriors dangerous, and while it is certainly true that this later prime Draymond’s offensive value is almost completely tied to Steph, his defence is still the other main pillar of the team.

That said, Draymond has always been something of a postseason riser, so if we reach the postseason and he is unable to play heavier minutes in close games, or if Kerr needs to bench him outright at the end of close games, then that would indeed be a new point of distinction. It was not a concern in 2023 (or 2022), but I would not be completely shocked if two years down the line it had become more of an issue. Same with Butler, who two years ago led an incredible 8/1 upset and reached the Finals.

I will say that I don’t disagree with your view of defining people’s prime more broadly such that there’s “late prime” time periods that aren’t someone’s best years. It’s a squishy term, though, so someone could reasonably define “prime” more narrowly than that. I think most tend to think of it in the broader way though, me included.

As for Draymond specifically, the question of when his prime ended is definitely highly dependent on whether one takes a broader or more narrow view of “prime.” I will note, though, that, as I recall, Draymond did actually get unexpectedly benched towards the end of a close game in the 2022 Finals (I believe it was Game 4). I think it was maybe a little overblown, because it wasn’t for the entire rest of the game, but it is nevertheless the case that Draymond was hurting them so much offensively that Kerr took him out for a while in crunch time, despite Draymond being a powder keg (i.e. he’s not the type of player that you can fully expect will take that well, so it’s a real risk). So there’s an argument that that sort of thing has occurred to at least some extent, and that that’s indicative of him not being in his prime anymore. My take is that Draymond was in an offensive slump (i.e. even worse than his norm) in those Finals, rather than really being quite *that* bad offensively in general. But then, if we’re talking about the impressiveness of Steph’s 2022 Finals win in particular, it doesn’t really matter whether he had late-prime Draymond in a significant offensive slump or a post-prime Draymond who is post-prime because he struggles so much offensively. The result in that series is the same either way—it’d just be a question of how we label it. I tend to think it was more of the “late-prime Draymond in a significant offensive slump” thing. But, either way, it’s really impressive for Steph to lead the Warriors to a title!

[O_6]

Just wanted to give a shout out to Cade Cunningham. I have to admit that I rushed my judgement on him these past 2 years. I saw a guy who seemed like he'd be good with a chance to make 3/4 All-Star teams and an All-NBA 3rd team at his peak, but not quite a true franchise changing MVP type as you're dreaming of from that #1 pick. But seeing him level up this year and then going back and seeing how there's been a steady year-by-year improvement from him even prior to this, I can see that I underestimated his potential.

SGA's trajectory was obviously phenomenal and not normal, don't think anyone expected him to peak as possibly the best SG-type since MJ. But just for reference, here are SGA vs. Cade's numbers at the same age and year in the league.

Cade -- 26/6/9 on 46/36/86 (.563 TS% -- 98 TS+) -- leading 1.30 SRS team
SGA --- 25/5/6 on 45/30/81 (.557 TS% -- 98 TS+) -- leading -7.90 SRS team

Obviously this doesn't mean Cade will develop into a player good enough to be considered on the same tier as a historic monster like Jokic, but Pistons fans should be salivating at how good this guy can end up.

*sidenote: crazy how bad OKC was just a couple years ago

[O_6]

The Thompson twins are so exciting. Ausar paired with Cade really could be something, and Amen looks like the truth. Even LeBron was praising their athleticism, and that’s LeBron. These two have such a nasty ceiling. Hope they reach it.

[Statlanta]

Just wanted to give a shout out to Cade Cunningham. I have to admit that I rushed my judgement on him these past 2 years. I saw a guy who seemed like he'd be good with a chance to make 3/4 All-Star teams and an All-NBA 3rd team at his peak

Ironically I still see him as only making 3/4 All-Star teams even with this season.

[Peregrine01]

Watching OKC play defense makes me wonder if the NBA allowed aggressive hand checking again.

[Special_Puppy]

Watching OKC play defense makes me wonder if the NBA allowed aggressive hand checking again.

6th in opponent FTAs so its not like they aren't getting called for it https://www.pbpstats.com/team-leverage-summary/nba?Season=2024-25&Leverage=Medium,High,VeryHigh

[BIGJ1ER]

Personally I think Primes can be semi ambigious but what I look for is a clear drop off.

Duncan's prime ends firmly after 07 to me.
KG after the injury in 09.

Draymond is weird, because while he had a resurgence and the on/off stuff still likes him in 21 and 22, I think he has a clear drop off from a top 5-15 level guy to like a fringe top 30 guy, and that is a steep drop, and its only gotten worse after the back injury in 22. I think the back injury in 22 really finished him off, he's more like a top 45 or worse guy since imo, the athleticism isn't there anymore, the offensive drop hurts, and his motor has dropped significantly. So think you can say his prime either ends after 19 or 22, and both are acceptable.

Butler likely had his prime end after 23, but he's such a weird player its hard to tell since he's coasted in the RS for a minute now.

Curry's prime clearly ended after 23. Lebron clearly ended with the solomon hill injury.

Think usually a fairly obvious drop for most guys. Some guys just gradually decline more gracefully. Curry and Lebron started from such high points that they have nice buffers as they decline, so while they're not top 3 locks anymore, they're still top 10 contenders. Some guys decline aggressively like post 17 russ or 19 griffin, usually caused by injury, but not always. I feel like maybe some guys just rely on an outlier trait somewhere that as soon as they lose it, it just cascades across their entire games.

[falcolombardi]

Watching OKC play defense makes me wonder if the NBA allowed aggressive hand checking again.

It always has been allowed in practice, people just mythologized it weirdly