'17-'18 POY discussion

[INKtastic]

LeBron's best chance at my #1 spot is GS beating Houston soundly (of course I wouldn't mind Utah doing it either).

Cavs beatng rockets won’t do it for you/

[MisterHibachi]

Yeah pretty much. The truth is LeBron at this point will look like a hero no matter when he gets eliminated because public opinion is that his team sucks and he’s doing a GOAT carry-job.

The Houston guys, meanwhile, will be seen as a joke and a disappointment if they don’t bring it to GSW an de stretch the series to 7 at the very least...

Outside took a lot of heat for what he was saying, but he had some great points. LeBron can run his motor way hotter than everyone else because he’s playing with house money right now. But it will honestly be hard for me to rank him above Harden unless Harden suffers an early exit, because right now he and LeBron aren’t really playing with the same goal in mind.

You really think LeBron and the Cavs aren't thinking Finals and championship right now? That LeBron is really thinking it's okay if I lose because public opinion thinks I'm doing a "GOAT carry-job"?

No, I’m saying that people are leaping to put LeBron over Harden because they’re stunned by his ability to scratch and claw his way to these narrow victories while putting up huge box score numbers and leaving his soul on the floor.

Meanwhile, Harden did not have such a game 7 performance in the first round because... his team is way, way too good to ever be pushed to 7 games in the first round. If Harden starts the race at a way faster pace than LeBron and leaves him in the dust, it might look impressive when LeBron goes into a full out sprint to try to close the gap but ultimately he still hasn’t actually overtaken Harden in the race.

If at any point Cleveland actually looks like they could seriously compete with one of Golden State/Houston in a series I may reconsider, but if Harden’s play is within the same ballpark as LeBron and Houston continues to look like the class of the league. If Harden tried doing what LeBron was doing right now, he might succeed, he might fail, but either way he’d be playing dumb basketball because his team won’t actually be tested until the Golden State series.

Part of this answer feels it's ignoring the context of the team around them. Houston is much more talented than Cleveland and has had much more time to gel, so of course they don't get pushed in the first round, not to mention frankly they played a garbage team, the Wolves were clearly worse than the Pacers imo. There's no reason to believe LeBron can't lead a team as good as Houston in the playoffs given the appropriate supporting cast, he's done exactly that the last two years.

And I don't understand your comment about dumb basketball?

[eminence]

LeBron's best chance at my #1 spot is GS beating Houston soundly (of course I wouldn't mind Utah doing it either).

Cavs beatng rockets won’t do it for you/

It certainly would, but I said best chance, I think the Rockets would likely beat the Cavs pretty badly.

[Dr Spaceman]

Harden isn’t capable of playing at the level LeBron plays at in the playoffs. He routinely disappears in the biggest moments.

Do you honestly not remember when people used to say this crap about LeBron?

But in the case of LBJ it was not true because he was a great playoff performer his entire first run with the Cavs. James Harden doesn't play as well as the post season as he does in the RS, and to a more relevant point he's never been as good as LBJ has been in the playoffs including this year thus far.

Ah yes, Harden the chronic playoff underachiever. Just like his buddy Chris Paul. Just like Kevin Durant and Steph Curry (before they teamed up). Just like Dirk Nowitzki. Just like Steve Nash. Just like Kevin Garnett.

It’s weird how we can name every Western Conference megastar over the last decade and a half and have public opinion be that they are playoff underachievers. What a weird coincidence. I wonder what in tarnation could be the reason for something like this.

[Dr Spaceman]

Harden isn’t capable of playing at the level LeBron plays at in the playoffs. He routinely disappears in the biggest moments.

Do you honestly not remember when people used to say this crap about LeBron?

Are you disagreeing with what I said, or are you countering with something nobody really believes?

I am disagreeing with wha you said and countering with something many people believed 5 short years ago.

[Dr Spaceman]

You really think LeBron and the Cavs aren't thinking Finals and championship right now? That LeBron is really thinking it's okay if I lose because public opinion thinks I'm doing a "GOAT carry-job"?

No, I’m saying that people are leaping to put LeBron over Harden because they’re stunned by his ability to scratch and claw his way to these narrow victories while putting up huge box score numbers and leaving his soul on the floor.

Meanwhile, Harden did not have such a game 7 performance in the first round because... his team is way, way too good to ever be pushed to 7 games in the first round. If Harden starts the race at a way faster pace than LeBron and leaves him in the dust, it might look impressive when LeBron goes into a full out sprint to try to close the gap but ultimately he still hasn’t actually overtaken Harden in the race.

If at any point Cleveland actually looks like they could seriously compete with one of Golden State/Houston in a series I may reconsider, but if Harden’s play is within the same ballpark as LeBron and Houston continues to look like the class of the league. If Harden tried doing what LeBron was doing right now, he might succeed, he might fail, but either way he’d be playing dumb basketball because his team won’t actually be tested until the Golden State series.

Part of this answer feels it's ignoring the context of the team around them. Houston is much more talented than Cleveland and has had much more time to gel, so of course they don't get pushed in the first round, not to mention frankly they played a garbage team, the Wolves were clearly worse than the Pacers imo. There's no reason to believe LeBron can't lead a team as good as Houston in the playoffs given the appropriate supporting cast, he's done exactly that the last two years.

And I don't understand your comment about dumb basketball?

Why in your opinion did LeBron not have these types of performances last year in the early rounds?

[INKtastic]

Do you honestly not remember when people used to say this crap about LeBron?

But in the case of LBJ it was not true because he was a great playoff performer his entire first run with the Cavs. James Harden doesn't play as well as the post season as he does in the RS, and to a more relevant point he's never been as good as LBJ has been in the playoffs including this year thus far.

Ah yes, Harden the chronic playoff underachiever. Just like his buddy Chris Paul. Just like Kevin Durant and Steph Curry (before they teamed up). Just like Dirk Nowitzki. Just like Steve Nash. Just like Kevin Garnett.

It’s weird how we can name every Western Conference megastar over the last decade and a half and have public opinion be that they are playoff underachievers. What a weird coincidence. I wonder what in tarnation could be the reason for something like this.

When did Chris underachieve, he plays great, his teams haven’t been good enough.

[MisterHibachi]

No, I’m saying that people are leaping to put LeBron over Harden because they’re stunned by his ability to scratch and claw his way to these narrow victories while putting up huge box score numbers and leaving his soul on the floor.

Meanwhile, Harden did not have such a game 7 performance in the first round because... his team is way, way too good to ever be pushed to 7 games in the first round. If Harden starts the race at a way faster pace than LeBron and leaves him in the dust, it might look impressive when LeBron goes into a full out sprint to try to close the gap but ultimately he still hasn’t actually overtaken Harden in the race.

If at any point Cleveland actually looks like they could seriously compete with one of Golden State/Houston in a series I may reconsider, but if Harden’s play is within the same ballpark as LeBron and Houston continues to look like the class of the league. If Harden tried doing what LeBron was doing right now, he might succeed, he might fail, but either way he’d be playing dumb basketball because his team won’t actually be tested until the Golden State series.

Part of this answer feels it's ignoring the context of the team around them. Houston is much more talented than Cleveland and has had much more time to gel, so of course they don't get pushed in the first round, not to mention frankly they played a garbage team, the Wolves were clearly worse than the Pacers imo. There's no reason to believe LeBron can't lead a team as good as Houston in the playoffs given the appropriate supporting cast, he's done exactly that the last two years.

And I don't understand your comment about dumb basketball?

Why in your opinion did LeBron not have these types of performances last year in the early rounds?

He did? He arguably had a better series last year against the Raptors than this year. Plenty of people on this forum think his start to the playoffs last year was better than this year.

And even if he didn't, penalizing a guy for being able to step up when needed doesn't make sense to me. We know he's capable of doing it the other way, and he's proving he's capable of doing it this way as well. As a player, what's changed for us to penalize him? He's not a worse player, there's no skill set differences to say he can't do it the way you say is the right way. It's literally all because of the team context.

[INKtastic]

No, I’m saying that people are leaping to put LeBron over Harden because they’re stunned by his ability to scratch and claw his way to these narrow victories while putting up huge box score numbers and leaving his soul on the floor.

Meanwhile, Harden did not have such a game 7 performance in the first round because... his team is way, way too good to ever be pushed to 7 games in the first round. If Harden starts the race at a way faster pace than LeBron and leaves him in the dust, it might look impressive when LeBron goes into a full out sprint to try to close the gap but ultimately he still hasn’t actually overtaken Harden in the race.

If at any point Cleveland actually looks like they could seriously compete with one of Golden State/Houston in a series I may reconsider, but if Harden’s play is within the same ballpark as LeBron and Houston continues to look like the class of the league. If Harden tried doing what LeBron was doing right now, he might succeed, he might fail, but either way he’d be playing dumb basketball because his team won’t actually be tested until the Golden State series.

Part of this answer feels it's ignoring the context of the team around them. Houston is much more talented than Cleveland and has had much more time to gel, so of course they don't get pushed in the first round, not to mention frankly they played a garbage team, the Wolves were clearly worse than the Pacers imo. There's no reason to believe LeBron can't lead a team as good as Houston in the playoffs given the appropriate supporting cast, he's done exactly that the last two years.

And I don't understand your comment about dumb basketball?

Why in your opinion did LeBron not have these types of performances last year in the early rounds?

Did you even look at game logs before asking that? He was dominant in the early rounds last year too. Not quite on this years level, but pretty close.

[dhsilv2]

For me, the only two names even worth discussing for this award this year are Lebron James and Anthony Davis. In a vacuum, they are the two best players in the league in terms of talent and this year they have the team results to back that up. Both are still alive in the playoffs with teams that'd be in the tanking race without them. Right now, I slightly lean Davis but it's looking likely that Lebron will do something to change my mind, he's just too good in the playoffs...

I can see why people are discussing Harden here, but I wouldn't even consider it unless the Rockets win the title. Harden is more like Offensive Player of the Year.

Harden's defense was as good or better than Lebron's this year.

[dhsilv2]

Best games of the playoffs so far - sorted by game score



http://bkref.com/tiny/o00BE

LeBron isn't just having a good playoffs, he's having a top 2 all time playoffs , second only to LeBron James in 2009

PER: 35.3 - 2nd all time to LeBron 2009 (minimum 5 games played)
BPM: 16.3 - 2nd all time to LeBron 2009
WS/48: .323 - 3rd all time (since all stats were tracked in 77-78, minimum 5 games played). 09 LeBron is 1 with .3994, 91 Jordan #2 with .332

LeBron's win share so far is 2.8, #2 in the league is 1.8

The first 2 rounds aren't over. They're playing different teams. The regular season happened and is a much better tool for where we are as the two play a far more normalized set of competition. And Harden's team is in cruise control in the playoffs.

Regular season ultimately has minimal weight for POY. The year curry was unanimous MVP, Leabron was both POY and overall male athlete of the year for winning one more playoff game than Curry.

Either Houston and Cavs will both play GS or Cavs will play Houston. Either way LeBron will be more impactful in the series and his team will have more team success even though Harden has the clearly better team around him.

Lebron was the clear number 2 that year regular season. Now I still would vote Curry for POY that year, he was just better, but that was a much closer regular season than this year is between Lebron and harden. Lebron's regular season play honestly only has him in the conversation because he played all 82 games.

And again so far Lebron and harden are very much playing similarly in these playoffs once we contextualize what's happening.

[dhsilv2]

You really think LeBron and the Cavs aren't thinking Finals and championship right now? That LeBron is really thinking it's okay if I lose because public opinion thinks I'm doing a "GOAT carry-job"?

No, I’m saying that people are leaping to put LeBron over Harden because they’re stunned by his ability to scratch and claw his way to these narrow victories while putting up huge box score numbers and leaving his soul on the floor.

Meanwhile, Harden did not have such a game 7 performance in the first round because... his team is way, way too good to ever be pushed to 7 games in the first round. If Harden starts the race at a way faster pace than LeBron and leaves him in the dust, it might look impressive when LeBron goes into a full out sprint to try to close the gap but ultimately he still hasn’t actually overtaken Harden in the race.

If at any point Cleveland actually looks like they could seriously compete with one of Golden State/Houston in a series I may reconsider, but if Harden’s play is within the same ballpark as LeBron and Houston continues to look like the class of the league. If Harden tried doing what LeBron was doing right now, he might succeed, he might fail, but either way he’d be playing dumb basketball because his team won’t actually be tested until the Golden State series.

Harden isn’t capable of playing at the level LeBron plays at in the playoffs. He routinely disappears in the biggest moments.

Please don't turn this forum into Skip Bayless level hot takes and unsubstantiated arguments. People come here to avoid ESPN level discussions.

[dhsilv2]

Harden isn’t capable of playing at the level LeBron plays at in the playoffs. He routinely disappears in the biggest moments.

Do you honestly not remember when people used to say this crap about LeBron?

But in the case of LBJ it was not true because he was a great playoff performer his entire first run with the Cavs. James Harden doesn't play as well as the post season as he does in the RS, and to a more relevant point he's never been as good as LBJ has been in the playoffs including this year thus far.

Can you meaningfully show Harden plays worse? What if Harden's game is more volatile and the small sample size is skewing results? Can you actually show one way or another?

I'll go further, can you actually show that Lebron is having a better post season or that the context or who they are playing and closeness of games/higher minutes for lebron isn't creating a perception that Lebron is better?

[dhsilv2]

This whole year and the Harden talk I think was summed up with a discussion on TNT before I think i twas game 3. Someone says that they expect Harden to come out and have a big game, he's score at least 30. Chuck stops whoever was saying in their track. He's averaging 30, you're saying he's going to just have an average night? That's not a big game for him.

People just won't accept what Harden is doing, their perception of a big game for Harden is his average this year. Even the defense has been reasonably ok this year and still people have a perception of Harden from a youtube clip from 4-5 years ago.

[INKtastic]

No, I’m saying that people are leaping to put LeBron over Harden because they’re stunned by his ability to scratch and claw his way to these narrow victories while putting up huge box score numbers and leaving his soul on the floor.

Meanwhile, Harden did not have such a game 7 performance in the first round because... his team is way, way too good to ever be pushed to 7 games in the first round. If Harden starts the race at a way faster pace than LeBron and leaves him in the dust, it might look impressive when LeBron goes into a full out sprint to try to close the gap but ultimately he still hasn’t actually overtaken Harden in the race.

If at any point Cleveland actually looks like they could seriously compete with one of Golden State/Houston in a series I may reconsider, but if Harden’s play is within the same ballpark as LeBron and Houston continues to look like the class of the league. If Harden tried doing what LeBron was doing right now, he might succeed, he might fail, but either way he’d be playing dumb basketball because his team won’t actually be tested until the Golden State series.

Harden isn’t capable of playing at the level LeBron plays at in the playoffs. He routinely disappears in the biggest moments.

Please don't turn this forum into Skip Bayless level hot takes and unsubstantiated arguments. People come here to avoid ESPN level discussions.

How is that a hot take. There are 5 years of evidence to support what I said.

10 points on 2/11 shooting with 6 turnovers in an elimination game last year.
Lost 4-1 in first round with horrid shooting two years ago.
14 points on 2/11 shooting with 12 turnovers in an elimination game 3 years ago, benched for big comeback win that saved the prior series.
Lost in first round with horrid shooting 4 years ago
Lost in first round with horrid shooting 5 years ago.

6 years when you count this:
Back to back 2-10 games in the finals 6 years ago

Meanwhile LeBron is the best elimination player in nba history. One player shrinks in the moment, the other player dominates in the moment.

[Texas Chuck]

People just won't accept what Harden is doing,

This doesn't seem remotely reflective of posters on this board and their take on Harden.

[dhsilv2]

Harden isn’t capable of playing at the level LeBron plays at in the playoffs. He routinely disappears in the biggest moments.

Please don't turn this forum into Skip Bayless level hot takes and unsubstantiated arguments. People come here to avoid ESPN level discussions.

How is that a hot take. There are 5 years of evidence to support what I said.

10 points on 2/11 shooting with 6 turnovers in an elimination game last year.
Lost 4-1 in first round with horrid shooting two years ago.
14 points on 2/11 shooting with 12 turnovers in an elimination game 3 years ago, benched for big comeback win that saved the prior series.
Lost in first round with horrid shooting 4 years ago
Lost in first round with horrid shooting 5 years ago.

6 years when you count this:
Back to back 2-10 games in the finals 6 years ago

Meanwhile LeBron is the best elimination player in nba history. One player shrinks in the moment, the other player dominates in the moment.

It's a hot take if you don't provide details. I would have never taken what you said to be what you just provided.

However again we have to look at context. Last year Harden had a great game to finish off OKC and he had two bad games against the spurs. Perhaps the spurs were a matchup problem for him? The bottom line that year is that the spurs were the better team and had the best defense in the nba.

You bring up poor shoot in 16 but hsi TS% was actually perfectly ok, and who was he playing again? Oh yeah the warriors that won 73 games and this was before Curry was limping. That was another top 5 nba defense.

15 so he makes the western conference finals, but because his teammates played well he doesn't get credit for that. He against the best defense in the nba averages 28 on 62.4% TS, but he does have a bad game so off with his head?

14 the final game had had a 31+ game score, offensive rating of 153 and his team loses by 1 point. Since the elimination game doesn't fit your narrative we have to go with poor shooting, meanwhile despite his team losing the series they were plus 16 with harden in. The reality is his team lost because they were crushed anytime he was off the floor.

It shouldn't be a shocker that all players sometimes have poor games. It should be even less of a shocker when it happens to a player on a worse team against a top 5 (and in 2 of these cases the number 1) defense.

Starting in 2015 when Harden became a potential MVP level guy he's lost to

15 GSW 67-15
16 GSW 73-9
17 SAS 61-21

In non of those years did he have a guy like Irving or Love offensively, and I get it that 15 Lebron had a great series as a island with everyone hurt, but Harden has been getting better and is just now 28. Lebron didn't win his first till 27 and up till then people could cherry pick excuses for why Lebron wasn't a winner. And look lebron was better than Harden AND he got to play worse early round teams because he was in the east.

For what it's worth 09, lebron's worst playoff game was the last game against the magic. We all know about 2011 and those finals. 2010 lebron had a stinker in game 5 which more or less ended the series, heck game 4 was pretty bad too. Funny how when you don't have a secondary play maker and you're against better defenses (11 is an exception) people don't play as well and have bad games.

[dhsilv2]

People just won't accept what Harden is doing,

This doesn't seem remotely reflective of posters on this board and their take on Harden.

There's a thread just made about 09 Kobe vs. 18 harden, and Kobe is leading the poll. Right there I see talk about a massive gap on defense and people spinning the offensive games to things like, well Kobe is more versatile. Harden is having a great playoff run and I'm seeing posts about how he's only shot over 50% once, which is silly. Harden doesn't shoot over 50%, the guy takes 10 3's a game!

While the posts here are much better than TNT hosts, there's still a clear aversion to accepting that Harden is having a truly amazing year and giving him credit for it. Everything from "it's the system" or "it's the spacing" to people still ignoring that the rockets have a real chance against the warriors. It's a much smarter and more educated level of dismissing him, but it's the same thing.

[Texas Chuck]

It's a much smarter and more educated level of dismissing him, but it's the same thing.

Are people really dismissing him? Or just feel differently from you? Or still want to withhold some judgement until his team is actually challenged?

I have Harden as the clear cut MVP and player of the year. I also still think Lebron and Curry are better players than he is. Would you term this dismissive?

[dhsilv2]

It's a much smarter and more educated level of dismissing him, but it's the same thing.

Are people really dismissing him? Or just feel differently from you? Or still want to withhold some judgement until his team is actually challenged?

I have Harden as the clear cut MVP and player of the year. I also still think Lebron and Curry are better players than he is. Would you term this dismissive?

I'm perfectly fine if someone has a different view than me on Harden. But they should be able to articulate why we should dismiss the data that is so favorable for him. The arguments I cited above, are not imo reasonable given how strong the data is in his favor. Every step of the way this year people appear to have actively looking for an excuse to move someone over him. Look at the AD love which I fully get why he stormed the POY discussion, but people were actively looking to find a way to argue he should leap over harden.

I don't have any issue with people holding back some judgement for how he does against goldenstate, but what if he has a bad game in the elimination game? Should that negate the year he had? I hopefully am wrong, but given what I'm reading I expect many would do just that. That imo is a dishonest analysis of the totality of his work.