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Retro POY '00-01 (Voting Complete)

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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#141 » by drza » Thu May 13, 2010 7:49 pm

Gongxi wrote:I can see where bastillon is coming from re: Kobe, in that he's consistent, but I'm not buying. Still, props to you bastillon for consistently looking at team record with and without a player, not just when it works in your favor.


Since you're around, Gongxi...(and let me preface this by saying that this is a sincere question, not a "Why didn't you vote for my guy??? :evil: :evil: :evil: " post)

You have been consistent and adamant throughout this project that it is on-court production, specifically box score production, that is the foundation by which you vote. That you don't care about team record or final team result at all, just production.

So, based on the fact that Duncan and Garnett have as close to the same box score line as maybe I've ever seen two players have in the regular season, and were similarly close with maybe a small KG advantage head-to-head in the postseason...what is it that prompted you to have Duncan second and KG off the ballot entirely?

Again, this is a sincere question as kind of the logical follow-up to the talk Sedale and Bastillion just had. Because just cuz I can't come up with a reason for that kind of separation doesn't mean that there aren't some out there, and maybe if I get a handle on it it'll help me in my own evaluations.
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#142 » by Sedale Threatt » Thu May 13, 2010 8:20 pm

Gongxi wrote:I can see where bastillon is coming from re: Kobe, in that he's consistent, but I'm not buying. Still, props to you bastillon for consistently looking at team record with and without a player, not just when it works in your favor.


Yeah, but he voted KG No. 1 in 2008. So how is that consistent?
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#143 » by semi-sentient » Thu May 13, 2010 8:43 pm

I decided to move Duncan to #2 and Kobe to #3 after considering the games/minutes played angle a little more. As much as I want to have Shaq/Kobe at the top two spots, it's hard to do considering how many games Kobe missed in the regular season, and I'm still not sure how to weigh his extra games in the playoffs and his elevated performance.

In the regular season, Duncan played 81% of the possible minutes, whereas Kobe played 71% of the possible minutes. That's kind of a big gap, and it's even bigger when looking at games played.

Adding in the playoffs, it gets a little closer (Duncan = 81%, Kobe = 76%), but that's still a 5% difference. Is what Kobe did in the playoffs enough to overcome that? I'm not convinced it is. Unless I see a "ronnymac" like eye-opening argument like in the 2002-03 thread, that's my final ranking.
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#144 » by ElGee » Thu May 13, 2010 9:06 pm

bastillon wrote: Kobe on the other hand has no business being so high when his team was 11-3 without him, which is pretty much damning in my book. raising your team to new levels is the most important and I don't think Kobe outplayed top notch players in that regard. also, he played 68 so he clearly should be below those who are even with him in production and yet outlasted him in mins. on the basis of those two arguments I'll put Kobe out of the top3, unless someone convinces me. it's not even that much about games (though they are a factor if others are even), but mainly this 11-3 thing. it makes me wonder...


Just for the record, I don't buy this argument. There is a ceiling effect to consider with good teams, and prime Shaq was on that team anyway! Who knows who they played or what the total team changes were (ORtg, DRtg, SRS, etc) but I just don't think that's a damning criticism of how Kobe played that year. If MJ missed a few games in 96 and the Bulls went, say, 7-2, would that be a problem for MJ? (Or Garnett in 08 :wink: )
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#145 » by semi-sentient » Thu May 13, 2010 9:11 pm

For the record, I don't like that argument either, particularly when you consider how a few people were brushing off the Celtics record without Garnett in 2008.

Unfortunately, that doesn't really matter because no one is going to change their mind.

Also, I can't believe more people haven't questioned the Malone pick. You guys are going to accept that pick -- over Kobe no less?
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#146 » by ElGee » Thu May 13, 2010 9:21 pm

semi-sentient wrote:For the record, I don't like that argument either, particularly when you consider how a few people were brushing off the Celtics record without Garnett in 2008.

Unfortunately, that doesn't really matter because no one is going to change their mind.

Also, I can't believe more people haven't questioned the Malone pick. You guys are going to accept that pick -- over Kobe no less?


I looked at Malone. Definitely still a top 10 or 12 guy that year, so it's not too crazy to consider him (which no one seems to be doing?). His regular season numbers are big, and the Jazz won 53 games. It wasn't one of their best rosters. 5th in win shares. 3rd team all-nba. Not sure how that gets him 3rd overall though...maybe mystic will have him No. 1 a number of other years? Maybe Malone's the new Nowitzki.
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#147 » by Gongxi » Thu May 13, 2010 9:37 pm

drza wrote:
Gongxi wrote:I can see where bastillon is coming from re: Kobe, in that he's consistent, but I'm not buying. Still, props to you bastillon for consistently looking at team record with and without a player, not just when it works in your favor.


Since you're around, Gongxi...(and let me preface this by saying that this is a sincere question, not a "Why didn't you vote for my guy??? :evil: :evil: :evil: " post)

You have been consistent and adamant throughout this project that it is on-court production, specifically box score production, that is the foundation by which you vote. That you don't care about team record or final team result at all, just production.

So, based on the fact that Duncan and Garnett have as close to the same box score line as maybe I've ever seen two players have in the regular season, and were similarly close with maybe a small KG advantage head-to-head in the postseason...what is it that prompted you to have Duncan second and KG off the ballot entirely?

Again, this is a sincere question as kind of the logical follow-up to the talk Sedale and Bastillion just had. Because just cuz I can't come up with a reason for that kind of separation doesn't mean that there aren't some out there, and maybe if I get a handle on it it'll help me in my own evaluations.


Ya know, I start every season with a few players to look at and I really go in-depth with those guys and give more cursory glances at the others. To be honest, Garnett was a guy that got a cursory glance and not too much else. I'm a huge, huge fan of Kidd's multi-faceted approach, but I really might need to drop him from the rankings and, in light of that, penalize Kobe a little more for the amount of games he missed. I'll need to think about it some more.
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#148 » by Doctor MJ » Thu May 13, 2010 9:43 pm

My vote:

1. Shaq
2. Kobe
3. Duncan
4. Iverson
5. Garnett

Shaq goes without saying.

Kobe over Duncan. Not without misgivings, but here's what I can't get passed: Orlando just swept Atlanta in the biggest blowout in history, right? 101 point difference in 4 games. Amazing? Yup. However, in 2001, the Lakers swept the Spurs with an 89 point differential. I know, I know, it's just 4 games, and it's just the last fraction of the season that the Lakers were like this, but I just can't keep a straight face and knock the Lakers for their less than GOAT worthy performances earlier in the season. Such dominance, in the middle of the 3 peat, and this being the time in that run where Kobe really could make an argument for his team's MVP - he earns the 2 spot.

Iverson? Well some of you already know I'm not a big fan of the guy. I feel like he tends to take almost as much off the table as he puts on. Inefficient, and a locker room cancer. Only this year, everything worked, and he wasn't a cancer, he really was a leader. In the right context, I'll argue all for his supporting cast - but make no mistake, the team was built around Iverson. Mutombo was great, but the team did just as well before Mutombo arrived. He was STILL overrated by MVP voters, but he earned that finals spot by outperforming the other players in the East.

Garnett - Quietly, another great year which gets topped only by guys having really special years.

Honorable Mention:

Ray Ray - Y'know I love this guy - he's a guy who makes me think If I ever ran a team, I'd be proud to have him on my team. Fantastic performance this year. Established that Milwaukee's Big 3, was really Allen and two sidekicks.

Carter - Amazing how far he's fallen in everyone's eyes - mine included. Yeah he didn't fully live up to his potential, but the biggest thing is that he didn't maintain his peak. At his best, Carter's place in the conversation with Kobe & company was deserved.

McGrady - His big coming out party. I think this was kicked the high school phenomenon into overdrive. "Even the B-list guys turn into superstars, OMG Diop FTW!"

Nowitzki - Dirk emerges as the team's star, and we see immediate improvement after a really, really terrible decade.

Webber - Really tough deciding this last spot. Kidd & Malone seem pretty comparable to me. I'll give the nod to the guy who was considered the best at the time.
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#149 » by ElGee » Thu May 13, 2010 9:47 pm

Before I vote, I also want to weigh in on KG really quickly, as number of his supporters are equating him with Duncan.

As I've said before, KG really broke out in 1999-2000. I thought he improved in 2002 in that polished, veteran sense - having a greater impact on the game everywhere, learning how to be The Guy, refining the offensive repertoire, etc. In 2003 he took a jump, primarily because he put together his offensive game. In 2004 he was just slightly better. So, he jumped onto one tier in 00-02 (a better 02, which could be seen as transitional), then jumped another in 03.

Now, since this is 2001, I definitely think he was better in 02. That Twolves team, post-Brandon injury, losing LaPhonso Ellis (who gave them quality offense at times off the bench in 2001), jumped nearly 2 full points in SRS and took another ~4 point leap in ORtg. So, it's expected people should hold him in a lower regard than in 02.

And I do think he outplayed Duncan in that series. I haven't rewatched the games, but going strictly on memory, I was extremely impressed that they won game 3 and, from what I recall, were awfully close to stealing game 1. Although that was a little less KG and a little more team than what we'd see out of Minnesota in years to come. I've posted their h2h battles before, and they were always close.

Then again, Duncan wasn't as good as he was in 02. Only, Duncan was still really damn good. I think Duncan's offensive game was a lot closer to 02 and 03 Duncan, the free throw shooting was just especially bad in 01. But Robinson was more effective back then and Duncan took 1.2 fewer shots and made 18% fewer free throws. For the purposes of this project, missing 100 extra free throws or so does matter, I just think it's worth noting that what Duncan was bring to the table nightly was (1) closer to 02 and 03 Duncan and (2) probably better than KG offensively.

I see a small statistical edge to Duncan in WS/48. I think Duncan probably had a great defensive impact that season, even if it was in part due to circumstance (Pop and Robinson).
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#150 » by Doctor MJ » Thu May 13, 2010 9:48 pm

DavidStern wrote:Guys, I think Webber should get more love. Look how people saw league at the time:

All NBA Teams voting
1. Iverson 612 points
2. Duncan 608
3. Webber 596
4. Shaq 581
5. KG 424
6. Kidd 423
7. Kobe 411
8. TMac 318
9. Carter 287
10. Mutombo 238

MVP voting
1. Iverson 1121
2. Duncan 706
3. Shaq 578
4. Webber 521
5. KG 151
6. TMac 64
7. Malone 21
8. Kidd 18
9. Kobe 11
10. Robinson 8

So Webber was clearly top 5 player and now it seems he became very underrated on real GM.


The knocking of Webber isn't so much a 2010 RealGM thing as it is that immediately after the 2001 regular season, Webber's buzz began fading. He was a disappointment in the 2001 playoffs, never really established himself as a great playoff performers, then he got hurt and the team did quite well without him, and he never really did much anywhere again. When you see an inefficient guy who gets worse in the playoffs and whose team doesn't seem to miss him that much, it starts to become really hard to argue that the guy belongs in an MVP conversation.

I put him at my 10 spot this year, but even that I second guess myself on whether he should be that high.
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#151 » by semi-sentient » Thu May 13, 2010 9:55 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:obe over Duncan. Not without misgivings, but here's what I can't get passed: Orlando just swept Atlanta in the biggest blowout in history, right? 101 point difference in 4 games. Amazing? Yup. However, in 2001, the Lakers swept the Spurs with an 89 point differential. I know, I know, it's just 4 games, and it's just the last fraction of the season that the Lakers were like this, but I just can't keep a straight face and knock the Lakers for their less than GOAT worthy performances earlier in the season. Such dominance, in the middle of the 3 peat, and this being the time in that run where Kobe really could make an argument for his team's MVP - he earns the 2 spot.


Yeah, that's what I can't get past either. The Spurs weren't just swept, they were absolutely demolished (in the WCF), and Kobe was the main reason for it. And that's after annihilating the Kings as well -- a series that was actually much closer seeing as how 3 of 4 games ended within 6 points.

Having Kobe ahead of Duncan didn't feel right, and now that I've swapped the two, having Duncan ahead of Kobe doesn't feel right either. Part of me feels like I'm giving Duncan a little too much love seeing as how I've had him 1st 3 times and 2nd 3 times, but if I go with Kobe then I feel homerish. Bleh.

I guess I have to let it marinate in my dome overnight and see how I feel about it tomorrow.
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#152 » by bastillon » Thu May 13, 2010 10:00 pm

drza wrote:
I'm not so down on Kobe for the 11-3 that the Lakers went without him. After all, I was championing KG in '08 when the Celtics went 9 - 2 without him. I don't know if the level of competition that the Lakers faced was as miserable as what the Celtics beat up on, but in the end I don't know that a great team's record over a short period without one of their stars is really that compelling.

The games played argument, I can see used as a tie-breaker among players that were otherwise close. And I guess if the Lakers' record without Kobe can convince you that he was more expendable to the Lakers than, say, Duncan or Garnett were to their teams, then I can also see how that could be a tie-breaker.

But for the most part, unless someone misses 30 games like Webber did in '02 or KG did in '09 I tend to vote more for just who I think was the better player, not so much about the games played.


the difference between Garnett and Kobe in these situations are that after in-depth look into Garnett's situation you can see this tendency just didn't hold up. KG dominated +/- ballpark which is a better metric than games with/without because it takes larger sample and also there was some crappy ass competition. I have no such data in Kobe's case. I don't know whether it was competition or if his +/- numbers dominated. I don't know... so why would I assume it is the case as well ?

see, if I didn't know about KG's +/- dominance and Celtics' piss poor competition, I would severely punish Garnett because of that. in fact, I might not have included him in TOP5 at all. what completely swayed me is those two things... that I don't know in Kobe's case.

what I know, though, is how big Shaq's impact was on those teams. there's a large sample of Kobe playing without Shaq and as far as I can tell it wasn't pretty at all. we also have Kobe missing games during that season and Lakers still being a great team. all of this points to one conclusion: Shaq was clear star on those teams and he was much more irreplacable than Kobe.

it's very chaotic but I hope you understand me guys. the point is that if someone checks the competition and it's really that crap, I'll sure reconsider my stance and most likely give Kobe much more credit than I did so far. as for now, it looks like Kobe doesn't have as much impact as truly elite players that year.

honestly I don't know how Lakers would have two super-dominant players on the team and not be head and shoulder above everybody else. I think if you paired Garnett with Duncan, it's a lock for 65-70W seasons every year. the way Lakers were playing doesn't support the notion that Kobe is quite on their level. you will rarely see me give huge credit to two guys on the same team unless it's truly all-time.
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#153 » by lorak » Thu May 13, 2010 10:12 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
The knocking of Webber isn't so much a 2010 RealGM thing as it is that immediately after the 2001 regular season, Webber's buzz began fading. He was a disappointment in the 2001 playoffs, never really established himself as a great playoff performers, then he got hurt and the team did quite well without him, and he never really did much anywhere again. When you see an inefficient guy who gets worse in the playoffs and whose team doesn't seem to miss him that much, it starts to become really hard to argue that the guy belongs in an MVP conversation.


I really wanted to put him in my top 5, but you are right. In playoffs he was awful and even very good regular season isn’t enough to be in top 5.

So my votes:

1. Shaq
2. Duncan
3. Iverson – I know, maybe a little controversial pick (however even TrueLAFan voted that way) but as I said earlier: that year I was more impressed by Iverson’s play than Bryant’s.
4. Kobe
5. KG
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#154 » by tkb » Thu May 13, 2010 10:13 pm

1. Shaq
2. Kobe
3. AI
4. Duncan
5. KG
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#155 » by bastillon » Thu May 13, 2010 10:19 pm

David Stern, what is your justification for having Duncan 2nd and Garnett 5th when there was so little gap between them ? it's not a personal attack, I'm just curious because many people feel that way and I have no idea why. this makes no sense.
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#156 » by ElGee » Thu May 13, 2010 10:19 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:My vote:

1. Shaq
2. Kobe
3. Duncan
4. Iverson
5. Garnett

Shaq goes without saying.

Kobe over Duncan. Not without misgivings, but here's what I can't get passed: Orlando just swept Atlanta in the biggest blowout in history, right? 101 point difference in 4 games. Amazing? Yup. However, in 2001, the Lakers swept the Spurs with an 89 point differential. I know, I know, it's just 4 games, and it's just the last fraction of the season that the Lakers were like this, but I just can't keep a straight face and knock the Lakers for their less than GOAT worthy performances earlier in the season. Such dominance, in the middle of the 3 peat, and this being the time in that run where Kobe really could make an argument for his team's MVP - he earns the 2 spot.

Iverson? Well some of you already know I'm not a big fan of the guy. I feel like he tends to take almost as much off the table as he puts on. Inefficient, and a locker room cancer. Only this year, everything worked, and he wasn't a cancer, he really was a leader. In the right context, I'll argue all for his supporting cast - but make no mistake, the team was built around Iverson. Mutombo was great, but the team did just as well before Mutombo arrived. He was STILL overrated by MVP voters, but he earned that finals spot by outperforming the other players in the East.

Garnett - Quietly, another great year which gets topped only by guys having really special years.

Honorable Mention:

Ray Ray - Y'know I love this guy - he's a guy who makes me think If I ever ran a team, I'd be proud to have him on my team. Fantastic performance this year. Established that Milwaukee's Big 3, was really Allen and two sidekicks.

Carter - Amazing how far he's fallen in everyone's eyes - mine included. Yeah he didn't fully live up to his potential, but the biggest thing is that he didn't maintain his peak. At his best, Carter's place in the conversation with Kobe & company was deserved.

McGrady - His big coming out party. I think this was kicked the high school phenomenon into overdrive. "Even the B-list guys turn into superstars, OMG Diop FTW!"

Nowitzki - Dirk emerges as the team's star, and we see immediate improvement after a really, really terrible decade.

Webber - Really tough deciding this last spot. Kidd & Malone seem pretty comparable to me. I'll give the nod to the guy who was considered the best at the time.


"Doctor MJ," how do the top 2 players in the league end up on the 6th ranked SRS team? The Spurs series was, after all, a mere 4 games...

re: Ray Ray - I actually think he's been more appreciated as the years have gone by. Wasn't he sort of seen in the Allan Houston camp of one-dimensional players back then? That was his only all-nba team other than 2005...

I'm starting to question if you really are this "Doctor MJ."
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#157 » by semi-sentient » Thu May 13, 2010 10:26 pm

What does the SRS look like with the playoffs factored in? This is the first time I've actually looked at that stat, so I'm curious if there is anything available on that.
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#158 » by lorak » Thu May 13, 2010 11:03 pm

bastillon wrote:David Stern, what is your justification for having Duncan 2nd and Garnett 5th when there was so little gap between them ? it's not a personal attack, I'm just curious because many people feel that way and I have no idea why. this makes no sense.


Well, look at the MVP and All NBA Teams voting results I posted earlier. It shows that at the time consensus was that Duncan was better in regular season. (In fact even Webber was better than KG)

All NBA Teams voting
1. Iverson 612 points
2. Duncan 608
3. Webber 596
4. Shaq 581
5. KG 424

MVP voting
1. Iverson 1121
2. Duncan 706
3. Shaq 578
4. Webber 521
5. KG 151

In playoffs maybe they were comparable, maybe one a little better than another, but Duncan played longer at that level and had several really good games: #1 against Minnesota, #2 and #5 against Dallas and #2 (and maybe #1) against Lakers. So in my opinion it gives him advantage over KG. Is this advantage as big as difference between 2nd and 5th spot suggest? Of course not, but I can’t put MVP with several great playoff games on the 5th. Maybe I should rethink Kobe and switch him with KG, because he missed games in regular season, but again – Bryant was so good in playoffs that don’t feel right to put him lower.
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#159 » by bastillon » Thu May 13, 2010 11:08 pm

since when # of great games is better than averages ?
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Re: Retro POY '00-01 (ends Fri evening PST) 

Post#160 » by Gongxi » Thu May 13, 2010 11:15 pm

A. Never

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