Retro POY '95-96 (Voting Complete)

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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#141 » by sp6r=underrated » Fri May 28, 2010 5:43 pm

JordansBulls wrote:Yes it shows Hornecek produced more so than Malone for the Jazz success that Postseason.


No, Hornecek did not produce more for the Jazz in the post-season JB.

You can't just look up stats, you have to actually try to interpret the number by looking at each stats strengths and weaknesses.

Win Shares as a stat weighs heavily offensive efficiency and (like most stats) doesn't significantly measure defensive impact.

Defenses put significant pressure on Malone by using constant doubles against him. Malone at this point was a very good passer and hit the open man. This often left Hornecek to take wide open shots because of the impact of Malone. This allowed Hornecek to be very efficient from the field, which makes him look very good from a win shares total.

Still, Hornacek did not produce more than Malone. Hornacek scored less, rebounded less, generated less open shots for his teammates, and played far worse defense than Malone. Hornacek was not even close to Malone in production.
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#142 » by Doctor MJ » Fri May 28, 2010 5:49 pm

JordansBulls wrote:Their is a difference in voting the #1 guy in a thread vs #2-5.


Hmm. Just want to chime in on that first line: It really doesn't make sense to have weight criteria differently at different spots. I'm sympathetic to someone to who has thought through the #1 spot more than other spots, and inconsistencies are flaws in evaluation. Not threatening to boot you, but if you really are evaluating like this you should think more on the theory behind your methods.
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#143 » by sp6r=underrated » Fri May 28, 2010 5:58 pm

I guess it is time to post my ballot.

1. Jordan: easy choice

I thought this would be an easy choice but the great posts of Kaima, who has been great this thread, gives me doubt. Malone was the better PS performer that year than Robinson as Kaima analysis has shown.

I have voted before for guys who got outplayed in an individual match-up, on the basis of RS play if I felt their RS was of a significantly higher quality. I think Robinson RS really was significantly better, and I don't feel Malone's PS was of a high enough quality to overcome it. I am voting for Robinson but I don't have much confidence in my vote. Nice posting Kaima.

2. Robinson
3. Malone

4. Penny: His play keeping the Magic going early in the season really was epic. It is a shame the NBA lost this great superstar, who was HOF quality, to injuries. I do disagree with Ronnymac's point about him potentially having more impact as a swingman. I know Penny hated playing the point but he was such a match-up problem for other teams, that I think it was better for him to play that position.

5. Kemp: Minority choice, but his impact was extremely close to the guys in contention for top 5, and he picked it up in the PS and ran wild on elite bigs at times.
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#144 » by JordansBulls » Fri May 28, 2010 6:11 pm

kaima wrote:
JordansBulls wrote:
kaima wrote:
Well, he certainly had better numbers against Robinson in their series.


Yes he did, I acknowledged that. But Robinson still had better playoff numbers than Malone. Higher PER, and better WS/48 minutes.


So, does this mean that you conclude that Robinson played better, and that he was the better player in the Jazz/Spurs series, or simply that, by virtue of these aggregates, he must be placed over Malone?

If we're talking about regular seasons, then the point returns to your own standards as regards prior regular seasons versus post-seasons.

That's the the central piece of your argument against Malone v. Jordan (which I agree with).


Big difference. Robinson was 2nd in MVP voting while Malone was 7th. It wasn't like he was top 3-4 in MVP voting.


So, is your voting pattern primarily based on counting up awards shares?

Further, if you're big on matchups defining value, the Robinson/Malone beatdown is a more logical exploration and exclamation as far as standard and point.

That is, on a logical basis.



And yet Malone played better defense than Robinson in their matchup.

Malone's post defense was often underrated.

If this is a roundup of season awards, then by definition Robinson's post-season doesn't matter.


Didn't say Malone wasn't a good defender, I said both Robinson and Hakeem made both all nba and all defense teams.


See the bold.



I'll trust my own lying eyes. Malone was better than Robinson in the playoffs.


He was better in the series head to head, I completely agree.


And considering this directly lead to SA's ouster, I think that's a rather big deal.

If Malone having a worse Finals than Jordan knocks him down to 2 in other seasons, why shouldn't Malone's head to head play against Robinson carry similar weight?


I don't think that helps your argument.


Yes it shows Hornecek produced more so than Malone for the Jazz success that Postseason.


Which shows the measurement has serious flaws.

Kind of my point.

The measurement is not placing a fair value on Malone demolishing the guy you think was the second best player in the league, nor does it take into account what Malone's presence did for Hornacek's numbers.

The system Utah ran was perfect for Horny. He was perfect within it. But it was DOA without Malone at the center of it.

If you truly believe that Malone contributed so little to Utah's post-season success, then he shouldn't be in your top 10, let alone 5.

I think the difficult thing here is how to measure Malone. I mean finishing 7th in MVP voting makes it kinda difficult to rank someone #2 in a season. If he were #4 or better I probably would have done so.


So this all comes down to award shares, explicitly.

And there's an interesting clash: you value WS and PER, yet they don't agree with the MVP vote.

Bit of a problem.

According to WS and PER in the regular season, Malone should have been number 3 in MVP votes.

Something's got to give.

What is your argument here? Are you saying Malone should have been #2?


Considering what he did to your number 2 in the playoffs, and his overall run in that post-season? Yes.

And I really don't see the argument for Olajuwon over Malone.


Ok so if Malone is over Robinson, then should Payton be above Malone?
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#145 » by JordansBulls » Fri May 28, 2010 6:16 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
JordansBulls wrote:Their is a difference in voting the #1 guy in a thread vs #2-5.


Hmm. Just want to chime in on that first line: It really doesn't make sense to have weight criteria differently at different spots. I'm sympathetic to someone to who has thought through the #1 spot more than other spots, and inconsistencies are flaws in evaluation. Not threatening to boot you, but if you really are evaluating like this you should think more on the theory behind your methods.


Obviously not, but their is a difference is just voting and then one where you give details.

This is what I had, so even up front I already acknowledged that Robinson didn't play well in round 2 vs Utah.
I'm starting to believe that maybe Malone should go up before Robinson because of the head to head battle where Malone played much better.

But I do have a concern. How do you decide here? Do you think a guy who finished 7th in MVP voting should be the #2 player for POY?

Where do you drop Robinson here since he played bad in the head to head? Is the worst spot for him #3 here or do you boot him out of the top 5?


Edit: I've udpated my rankings as it is practical to move Malone ahead of Robinson considering how he outplayed DRob in that series despite having a worse record and also because he was able to go 7 games against the team with the best record in the WCF.

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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#146 » by kaima » Fri May 28, 2010 6:33 pm

JordansBulls wrote:
Ok so if Malone is over Robinson, then should Payton be above Malone?


If you're implying that, by advancing further, Payton was better, I don't think you're understanding my argument.

First, I don't believe Payton was better than Malone in their series. Malone put up 27, 11 and 5 versus Payton's 20, 5 and 6. Unlike Robinson, Malone not only played well, but was arguably the best player in the series.

Second, my issue is not just who won and who lost between the Jazz/Spurs, but the fact that Malone's domination of Robinson, in a head to head post battle, decided the broader outcome, thus the outcome itself is transmogrified into something that was personified or individuated.

I don't see how the series between the Sonics/Jazz can be analyzed in the same way, as the specific ingredients are far different. It was, by definition, impossible to say that Malone and Payton were in a positional battle.

As I've said throughout, it's not that the Spurs lost to the Jazz. It's that they lost because Robinson was decidedly outplayed by Malone on both ends. Losing a matchup as decidedly as Robinson did (again and again...), calls into question his status in that season and, extrapolated, overall.

What Malone did to Robinson -- a peak Robinson, mind you -- is something that didn't happen to a prime Malone in his career. He was never abused in a playoff series by another player or star on both ends. Same with Jordan. This speaks to player value, in my estimation, as well.

Robinson could not only be contained, he could be abused.

That's what Malone did to him in 96.
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#147 » by Silver Bullet » Fri May 28, 2010 6:47 pm

1. Jordan
2. Robinson
3. Pippen
4. Malone
5. Payton
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#148 » by Gongxi » Fri May 28, 2010 6:50 pm

kaima wrote:What Malone did to Robinson -- a peak Robinson, mind you -- is something that didn't happen to a prime Malone in his career. He was never abused in a playoff series by another player or star on both ends. Same with Jordan. This speaks to player value, in my estimation, as well.


This has nothing to do with this individual season.

Anyway, that reasoning my apply to Robinson and Olajuwon in 94-95, but Robinson was better in 96 and the 'domination' of Robinson much less so in 96. Basically, this argument is coming a year early in this project.
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#149 » by tkb » Fri May 28, 2010 6:54 pm

I'm going with

1. Michael Jordan
2. Karl Malone
3. David Robinson
4. Gary Payton
5. Anfernee Hardaway
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#150 » by mysticbb » Fri May 28, 2010 7:01 pm

I read a lot about Malone or Robinson, semi made some great points for Payton. But what about Penny Hardaway? Any reasons to put him into the Top5 or is the 4th/5th spot just fine? I have the feeling our project could use some words from a Penny fan.

I already wrote my vote down, Payton is ahead of Kemp imho, and I'm thinking about putting him into the Top5. Malone and Robinson are pretty much fix for me as the 2nd and 3rd, but behind that with Hardaway and Pippen there might be enough question marks to drop either of those to #6, which would give Payton the 5th spot. Opinions?
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#151 » by Optimism Prime » Fri May 28, 2010 7:11 pm

1. Michael Jordan
2. Karl Malone
3. David Robinson
4. Gary Payton
5. Penny Hardaway
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#152 » by kaima » Fri May 28, 2010 7:21 pm

sp6r=underrated wrote:I guess it is time to post my ballot.

1. Jordan: easy choice

I thought this would be an easy choice but the great posts of Kaima, who has been great this thread, gives me doubt. Malone was the better PS performer that year than Robinson as Kaima analysis has shown.

I have voted before for guys who got outplayed in an individual match-up, on the basis of RS play if I felt their RS was of a significantly higher quality. I think Robinson RS really was significantly better, and I don't feel Malone's PS was of a high enough quality to overcome it. I am voting for Robinson but I don't have much confidence in my vote. Nice posting Kaima.


Thanks.

My main goal was that of the thread: a discussion. A debate.

I think, even as a detractor, that Robinson is a fascinating topic, and one of the more interesting players to analyze, pro and con, from this generation.

As with the Penny and Kemp, he's a bit of a cautionary tale. Though, obviously, he's a much greater player and presence historically.

4. Penny: His play keeping the Magic going early in the season really was epic. It is a shame the NBA lost this great superstar, who was HOF quality, to injuries.


Penny's career, or its quick end for all intents, is a tragedy.

Sometimes guys rank in a fluke manner.

Penny's career feels like a fluke, in the most awful of ways: he could have been a (bear with me, I'm just throwing a number out there) top 25 player.

5. Kemp: Minority choice, but his impact was extremely close to the guys in contention for top 5, and he picked it up in the PS and ran wild on elite bigs at times.


Kemp's, I think, very arguable at 5.

Payton got the brunt of the credit, but I felt Kemp was very important, particularly within Karl's defensive schemes. For all the talk of swarming, does the Seattle attack work against Hakeem without Kemp?

For Hakeem to go from a 27 point average in the regular season to 18 was a devastating example of how much matchups matter.

Even if you only give Kemp a third of the credit for that, it's still a damned big notch on his belt. Or at least it should be.

Perception matters. That Hakeem's 95 is so well-remembered is understandable in a number of ways. But should it be a free pass for the equal and opposite failure that quickly followed?

There's a symmetry to that, as well as Penny and Kemp being ranked together: one lost his way mentally, the other physically.

At the very least, I thought you did a nice job responding to my comparison of the 90s Rockets to other Finals/Championship teams. It's an interesting topic, the exceptions, contradictions and outliers that the Rockets presented in the mid-90s.
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#153 » by NO-KG-AI » Fri May 28, 2010 7:24 pm

1) Michael Jordan
2) David Robinson
3) Hakeem
4) Penny Hardaway
5) Karl Malone
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#154 » by Gongxi » Fri May 28, 2010 7:27 pm

Did only one person put Pippen in the top 5? Can we hear from him about why? I mean, I think I know why, but like...the justification for it.
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#155 » by Silver Bullet » Fri May 28, 2010 7:32 pm

Gongxi wrote:Did only one person put Pippen in the top 5? Can we hear from him about why? I mean, I think I know why, but like...the justification for it.


If you already know why - then there's no point is there.
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#156 » by kaima » Fri May 28, 2010 7:34 pm

NO-KG-AI wrote:1) Michael Jordan
2) David Robinson
3) Hakeem


I think Hakeem at three is a really hard sell.

Mr. Merriweather 'From Little Big Man' would balk at trying to foist such a product off on the (gullible) public.

But seriously, I really haven't read any good arguments for Hakeem that high. Excuses? Yeah, but that's a bit different.
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#157 » by ronnymac2 » Fri May 28, 2010 7:34 pm

I really don't know how to order these guys. I think I have to keep Robinson in because he was playing top three defense all-time that season (really should have won DPOY). Penny doesn't really have the black marks on him like the three great centers do. I think Olajuwon and O'neal are equals this season as players (edge to Hakeem, but edge to O'neal for the playoffs). Still....that 30 games gives Hakeem a tie-breaker edge. 30 is **** up.

David Robinson is very lucky that Hakeem Olajuwon didn't play well against Seattle. That is probably messing my perception of Hakeem's game up right now. Robinson is likely to go third here. But he is very, very lucky.

So it comes down to a Magic showdown. It's simple. Shaq's a better player than Penny and played better in the playoffs (though Penny was amazing, too.....it's not like he had a meltdown that exposed a fundamental flaw in his game), while Penny had a great regular season and Shaq missed a lot of games. What do I value more?

If they were on different teams, I'd probably go with O'neal. The thing about missing 30 games though is that it is really missing 40 games (almost half the season). You miss all that time, and then you come back. You're probably not yourself. The team needs to integrate you back into the line-up. Now, I don't know for sure if this actually cost Orlando games in this specific situation, but I think it's reasonable that it could have. This affects the situation further since Penny is the one who had to deal with that. If it was some other guy and Penny was just leading some other team, fine. But the actions of these two affected each other. I'm going to reward Hardaway in this situation. I don't feel too bad about it. Penny was playing like he could have become a top 25 player all-time. Anybody who can make MJ and PIP his bitch in the post has my attention.


Final Vote:

Michael Jordan
Karl Malone
David Robinson
Hakeem Olajuwon
Penny Hardaway
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#158 » by Gongxi » Fri May 28, 2010 7:37 pm

Silver Bullet wrote:
Gongxi wrote:Did only one person put Pippen in the top 5? Can we hear from him about why? I mean, I think I know why, but like...the justification for it.


If you already know why - then there's no point is there.


In an effort to denigrate Jordan by retroactively claiming he had a top 5 player as a teammate for his championships just like Kobe had with Shaq?
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#159 » by Silver Bullet » Fri May 28, 2010 7:37 pm

For the people slightly better mannered than Gongxi - this is the 72 win Bulls, the most dominant team of all time. It's clearly not all Micheal -

Pips had 20-7-6-2-1 on 52.5% eFG and was by now possibly the best defensive player in the league.

I don't think this should require much explanation -
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Re: Retro POY '95-96 (ends Fri evening) 

Post#160 » by ronnymac2 » Fri May 28, 2010 7:40 pm

kaima wrote:Penny's career feels like a fluke, in the most awful of ways: he could have been a (bear with me, I'm just throwing a number out there) top 25 player.


Don't feel bad about that. He was a better player than Scottie or Payton who are probably top 25-35 players. The only think about Penny is that sometimes his mentality was a little....eh. Didn't take over as much as he should. I have a theory that it is because he thought he needed to play pg. Again, I think a move to the wing would have done him some good. He could attack more.

Just get some all-nba teams and stats and titles and longevity, and you have yourself a top 25 player.
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