Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate?

[Bradford]

Do you guys remember when Carlos Boozer led the Jazz in Defensive Rating last year? That was cool, he's a really good defender.

lol yeah shows the meaning of theses BS stats....

[DWILListhebest]

Deron is the better player no question. Has won the majority of head to head match ups. More playoff appearances. His size and toughness has proven that he is the more durable player and hasn't missed the amount of games that crissy has. Time will continue to prove who the better player is but so far its deron.

[NO-KG-AI]

Do you guys remember when Carlos Boozer led the Jazz in Defensive Rating last year? That was cool, he's a really good defender.

He's definitely a much better defender than Deron over their Jazz careers, which is sad.

Boozer doesn't fair well in =/- either though, so it's not like everything points to him being a great defender, just better than Deron.

[dogrufus]

Deron is the better player no question. Has won the majority of head to head match ups.

What a great point, it especially rings true the 57th time you repeat it.

Amare Stoudemire is 8-1 against Dwight Howard in his career while outscoring him on average, so he must be the best big man in the NBA easily.

[BarneyGumble]

Back to the defense thing, Paul consistently has a better defensive +/- than Deron, by tons, meaning he helps his team more. The Hornets are consistently better on defense, and Paul has never been out of the top 5 in defensive rating on the team, and he's been first more than once.

Deron consistently is at the bottom of the Jazz as one of their worse defenders.

Paul can't guard the 2, and Deron can guard it better, but it's not like he's a good defender at the two, and Paul is a vastly superior defender at the one, even if you try to discount his turnovers.

Great hands on D=bad, lol.

There is so much wrong with this post I dont even know where to begin. Obviously intelligence is not a requisite for being a Realgm mod....

[Shaq Fu Panda]

Besides the obvious that Deron always destroys Paul, how about the fact that Paul and his team quit against the Denver Nuggets in 2009?

That series showed that Chris Paul is not a true leader.

[BarneyGumble]

^ Not to mention, when the going gets tough...the only way Chris Paul knows how to fight through it is to flop. And if that doesn't work, there is always this:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9F3tptzEWmM[/youtube]

[erudite23]

Don't bring ORTG or DRTG in a conversation with me. They are meaningless. Here's why: http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... areer.html

Steve Kerr is the career ORTG leader. John Stockton is neck-and-neck with Magic at #5 overall. Also in the top 25 of all time: Brad David, Ed Pickney, Cedric Maxwell, David Lee, Horace Grant and Horace Grant. NOT in the top 15 includes: Michael Jordan (17th breathing down Brad Davis' back), Larry Bird (50th), LeBron James (66th), Kareem (33rd), Kobe (98th), Gervin (106th), Dwyane Wade (134th), Dr J. (139th), Hakeem (216th) and TMac (237th)....should I go on? Its one of the most random and ridiculous stats ever created. And don't try to bring the "well if you use it to compare similar players in similar roles..." argument. Its used to measure offensive effectiveness, yet the players it claims to be effective have not even the vaguest resemblance to the reality that you see on the court. It doesn't exist to me, so please stop bringing it up....unless you're also willing to start threads suggesting that Stockton is the greatest PG ever and that Jordan is overrated.

As for +/-....its one of NO/KG/AI's great leaning posts. Its also damn near worthless itself. I can see how it can be used to paint a very broad picture. But used to measure small difference between players its ridiculous. One of the things you see with the Hornets is that they are a very shallow team. Their bench has ALWAYS been terrible, particularly on defense. Add in the fact that CP has mirrored his PT with first Tyson Chandler (their best defender by far) and now Okafor (ditto), and that explains, to a degree, his ranking. Deron, meanwhile, has played on a team that has always been deeper, and who's second unit is actually superior defensively to the starters. Boozer was the worst defender on the team for a long time, and Deron played alongside him almost minute-for-minute. AK, on the other hand, is our best defender and he is almost always playing when Deron is out because he's a great passer and facilitator offensively. These are the randomness of +/-. Now when you consider that the Jazz play about 800-900 minutes a season with Deron out (or the equivalent to 15-17 games), that's quite a small sample size to use compared to the time he's in the game.

Or how about we provide a little context? Using the 08-09 numbers for our study, since they seem to be the most recent ones available. According to +/-, Dwight Howard--the DPOY for the last couple years and easily the most impressive defensive force in the NBA right now--is roughly equivalent at -1.1 defensively to the rookie Brook Lopez (-0.7). He and Varejao (-0.9) are miles behind the likes of Amare Stoudemire (-4.5) and Zaza Pachulia (-5.1) as interior defensive presences, just to name a few. Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, the best interior player by a mile on the LAL and a quality defensive presence in his own right was, oh wait, a terrible defensive player with a +3.6 defensive mark. Apparently, Lamar Odom--not Andrew Bynum (-1.2)--was the REAL defensive presence on the champs. He posted the best mark of any PF in the league, and 4th overall, at -8.0. So that's why the Lakers were so good defensively that season!!!

Other top players according to defensive +/-? Thad Young @ 5th (-7.8), Delonte West @ 8th (-7.3), Nick Young @ 9th (-7.0) Jarvis Hayes @ 12th(-5.6) and Darius Songaila @ 13th(-5.6).

Random.

Gtfo of here with that ridiculous crap.

[erudite23]

Also, for 08-09, Deron was hurt with a bum ankle for the first half of the season. In the games he played in, he was truly terrible defensively. So there's is probably some truth to that ridiculous +8.5 mark he posted. For half of the season he was one of the 3 worst defensive PGs in the game. That was also the only time in his career he posted that poor of a mark.


Edit: also...lol....if you look on this page http://www.82games.com/0809/ONSORT3.HTM , you will see that the Hornets actually forced LESS TOs with Chris Paul in the game than they did with him out of it! For such a steals maestro, its pretty ironic that his team actually forced MORE TOs with him out than with him in. Lawl

And another thing...CP's Hornets turned the ball over 2.5 times less per 100 possessions with him on the floor than with him off of it. That's a quality mark. Interesting, though, that the Jazz improved their ball handling even more with DWill in the game at 2.7 times less per 100p. Hmmmm.

[Scoob Seriously]

NO-KG-AI just got ethered.

[dogrufus]

Edit: also...lol....if you look on this page http://www.82games.com/0809/ONSORT3.HTM , you will see that the Hornets actually forced LESS TOs with Chris Paul in the game than they did with him out of it! For such a steals maestro, its pretty ironic that his team actually forced MORE TOs with him out than with him in. Lawl

So what? When Chris Paul is out of the game the Hornets are generally playing the other team's bench. Bench players tend to be a lot more turnover prone than starters. Also it's not just that Paul forces so many turnovers, it's that he does it without gambling so much that he hurts the overall team defense. Forcing X turnovers with good man defense is preferable to forcing X+1 turnovers with mediocre man defense.

And another thing...CP's Hornets turned the ball over 2.5 times less per 100 possessions with him on the floor than with him off of it. That's a quality mark. Interesting, though, that the Jazz improved their ball handling even more with DWill in the game at 2.7 times less per 100p. Hmmmm.

Easily explained by the fact that the Jazz' backup PG Brevin Knight was significantly more turnover prone (23.3 TO%) than the Hornets' backup PG, Antonio Daniels (18.2 TO%).

[erudite23]

Alright, your post was generally good and well thought out, but it's about time someone spoke up for steals. Steals are one of the most valuable things you can contribute to your team. A steal is pretty much worth two possessions. You end the opponent's possession with no possibility of them scoring, and you in turn get a possession where you will very likely get a very high quality shot. A PG who can get you three more steals a game is better than a PG who will get you three less turnovers.

It's getting to the point where people have gone on so much about how steals are overrated that they are actually now underrated. Yes, there have been some players who gamble for steals too indiscriminately while neglecting good man defense to the point of sometimes hurting the team. But a lot of big steals guys were also some of the best overall defenders at their position. Are you going to tell me that Jordan, prime Artest, or Gary Payton weren't good defenders? Some players have the quickness and smarts to get a lot of steals while also playing good man defense. Forcing turnovers is a huge, huge part of good defense. The way its importance is completely written off on these boards puzzles me.

I think people have gotten savvy. This is something that has gone on for decades and people have finally caught on. You can tell when a player is just a bad ass defender and when they are getting steals by cheating. No one who doesn't worship at the feet of advanced stats or give lip service to stardom thinks that Paul is a good defender. No one. He doesn't pass the eye test, so you can regale me with all the advanced **** you want that says he's a defensive monster and it won't do any good. He's not good.

Given that he's not good, it stands to reason that his steals aren't a product of quality play, but rather of him cheating off his man.

As for steals themselves...you don't have to argue their merits with me. I've been on the other side of this debate at other times. Remember, you're talking to a fan of John Stockton, the NBA career steals leader. And what you're saying is true to an extent. This situation is a little unique, though. CP hates to push the pace. He rarely does it, even though he's quite good at it when he does. His steals don't generally end up in easy layups at the other end, because he doesn't force the tempo. He's usually content to set up in the half court following one of his steals. But what you don't see on stat sheet is the consequences of his gambling. He has always had a big guy that seals the lane, to help against penetrating guards (something Deron has never had the benefit of) so what ends up happening when he leaves his guy? If you know basketball, the answer is simple. A breakdown defensively doesn't show up so much on the first open man, but the second. Competent defensive teams help on the first guy. Where the breakdowns usually come is helping onto the man that the first helper was guarding. That's why you always hear the mantra "help the helper" in basketball parlance. Paul leaves his man, a guy rotates to help Paul out, and the breakdown occurs when Paul's man swings it to the guy left wide open by the helper. Not genius stuff here, just regular basketball X's and O's.

I love when people engage in this kind of navel-gazing when pondering why one player has more team success than another. Maybe it's because one player's team has significantly more overall talent? MJ lost plenty of playoff series while he was clearly the best player in the league. This season has revealed that the guy the Jazz were calling their backup PF is actually better than anyone Chris Paul has ever played with. The Jazz are a premier organization in this league and have been among the best coached and managed for 20 years. The Hornets have moved to a dead city, have no fan support and sketchy ownership and management.

Deron's offenses have been better because he had two big men better than Chris Paul's best big. Now that he only has one so far this season, the Hornets have the better offense than the Jazz thus far. As for the impact of the individual players, the evidence is overwhelming that Paul is better.

In the first place, the Hornets have been built AROUND Chris Paul. David West is the kind of player that CP loves to play with. Tyson Chandler and his ability to catch and finish lobs was similarly suited to CP. Paul likes to drive and kick out. That's his game. He doesn't force balls into tight spaces and doesn't create nearly as many layups as Deron Williams does. This is why the Jazz have a much higher FT/FGA ratio every year. So Paul likes to have shooters to spread the floor and a big guy who can pick and pop. He has that. Deron, on the other hand, likes having cutters and divers continually to that he can work the ball in to. Or at least that's what the system calls for and what he's asked to do. It creates a higher FG% and more FT attempts. Paul's system creates lower FG%, more 3s and less FT attempts....but also less TOs.

And let's flip this script defensively. Chandler and West were much, MUCH better on the defensive end than the Okur/Boozer pairing. As we all know, defense starts from the inside out. With the hand checking rules the way they are and all the other rules that favor the offense, the best line of defense is to have bigs that help well and contest shots around the rim. The Jazz have been one of the 3 or 4 worst teams in the league this way. Where does it show up? Not in position PER allowed, because we play good man-to-man post D and help down in post up situations. Where it shows up is in the stats of penetrating perimeter players. The Jazz have been among the worst in the league defending swingmen and penetrating PGs because we have no interior help defense. The Hornets, on the other hand, have excelled in that aspect.

Yet, if you look at numbers, the Jazz have been within a single point per 100 possessions in defensive efficiency of the Hornets every year but last season, in which the Jazz blew the Hornets out of the water with a -5.1 advantage. Given that we know the Hornets to have been vastly superior at the big man spots, doesn't it stand to reason that if there was a large margin at the PG position as well, than it would result in a VASTLY superior DRTG for the Hornets above the Jazz? I know AK is a great defender, but he wouldn't be able to make it all up, right? Yet there it is. The Jazz and Hornets have been roughly even defensively from 05-09, despite the fact that the Hornets have had a large edge in interior defense. Yet we're supposed to believe that they ALSO have a great advantage at PG? Please.

[erudite23]

So what? When Chris Paul is out of the game the Hornets are generally playing the other team's bench. Bench players tend to be a lot more turnover prone than starters. Also it's not just that Paul forces so many turnovers, it's that he does it without gambling so much that he hurts the overall team defense. Forcing X turnovers with good man defense is preferable to forcing X+1 turnovers with mediocre man defense.

Lol...seriously? Any uptick in TO "proneness" from the bench is mirrored by an inferior ability to force TOs by the opposition's bench. Unless you can produce something that suggests that TOs rise across the board when the backups come in, than this is just sophistry and equivocations. Blah.

Easily explained by the fact that the Jazz' backup PG Brevin Knight was significantly more turnover prone (23.3 TO%) than the Hornets' backup PG, Antonio Daniels (18.2 TO%).

Haha...yet Knight's numbers for his career don't suggest that he is that TO prone. His career TO% is at 19.0. Not far from the number that Daniels posted. His 23.3 mark from that season was the 2nd highest of his career and well above his traditional standard. Maybe it was the fact that he was old and washed up....except that his 16.0 mark the season before was a career best. OR maybe the Jazz ask their PGs to push the ball inside, resulting in more difficult passes, higher turnover rates...and better overall offense resulting from layups rather than jumpshots. Now, something similar could be said for Daniels' jump in TO rate (although that was more likely a by product of him being asked to play a different role than he was used to), but I digress.

The point is, if CP is so great at limiting TOs, and its just the way that he plays, why doesn't it show up over his backup more? And if DWill is TO prone, why doesn't it also show up over his backup?

Oh...wait. Maybe they're being asked to do different things?

In 07-08, Deron's ratio of assists at the basket (dunks, layups and other bunnies) was 44.2%. Paul's was 39.6%. That's about a 12% advantage for Deron over CP. The gap narrowed the next year as Deron played the entire season without Carlos Boozer, but Deron still led by about 3 or 4%. I can't get the #s for last year (can't find 09-10 @ 82games.com, maybe someone can help me) but thus far this season--with an admittedly small sample--Deron's at the basket assists make up 37.6% of his assists while Paul's are at 30.4%. That's a 24% bump for Deron as opposed to CP.

So what is better, a layup/dunk or a jumpshot? Here are the things that advanced stats don't pick up on and the reason why there has always got to be a subjective light shed on things. We don't have any numbers for FG% on potential assists. We do know, though, that Deron gets his teammates better shots than CP does. Some might argue that Paul's superiority in setting up 3 pointers would make up the difference in eFG% that Deron's assists like have in raw FG%. My response would be to point to the ridiculous disparity in FTA per FGA that the Jazz have over the Hornets. None of CP's teammates have had a particularly high FT rate at any point in his career, and his team in general has been near the bottom of the barrel. Meanwhile, the Jazz are always at the top of the league. So Deron's passes almost assuredly produce much higher percentage offense than CP's do, yet we don't see that in numbers. We see it in team success (Jazz>>Hornets offensive the whole time the PGs have been there) but we don't see it in individual numbers. But we DO see the negative impact it has on DWill's stats in the form of TOs. Just another loophole in the system. And just another reason why there are so many people that simply ignore statistics. They exist to provide a general context, not to dictate every single aspect of our thinking.

[Rapcity_11]

I like the effort erudite. Finally a D-Will fan that is making a legitimate argument.

Still, I think you are cherry picking and a lot of your analysis is flawed. Don't really feel like going through it all though, sorry. Hopefully someone else does...

[erudite23]

Um...thx? lawl...

I'm interested to know how I'm cherry picking. Also realize that I have already acknowledged that CP is superior statistically (with the caveat that the margin isn't nearly as big as CP backers like to pretend), and probably has the edge overall up to this point in their careers. I'm just arguing against the obviously flawed assertion that Paul is head and shoulders better.

[Bgil]

Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, the best interior player by a mile on the LAL and a quality defensive presence in his own right was, oh wait, a terrible defensive player with a +3.6 defensive mark. Apparently, Lamar Odom--not Andrew Bynum (-1.2)--was the REAL defensive presence on the champs. He posted the best mark of any PF in the league, and 4th overall, at -8.0. So that's why the Lakers were so good defensively that season!!!

I agree with the rest of your post but your sarcasm is off base on the Lakers. Virtually any dissection of game footage shows Odom truly is our best defender when all things are considered (i.e. rebounding). His man-to-man defense needs some work but his rotations, versatility, defensive rebounding, pick and roll defense, effort, hustle, and even perimeter closeouts are all top notch.

Pau Gasol is a really bad defender. At times he does a solid job challenging shots but a moderately healthy Bynum is a far superior man-to-man and rotational defender except in situations where someone needs to fly out to the perimeter to block a Ray Allen 3 pointer. Bynum's only real flaw as a defensive center is his tendency to pick up stupid fouls and, of course, the inability of a 300lb guy to close out on the perimeter.

[BarneyGumble]

I like the effort erudite. Finally a D-Will fan that is making a legitimate argument.

Still, I think you are cherry picking and a lot of your analysis is flawed. Don't really feel like going through it all though, sorry. Hopefully someone else does...

So you say his logic is flawed and yet you admit to not reading all of his post....

The thing here is that NO-KG and drogfus or whatever his name is argue about stats stats stats until they are blue in the face but the one stat that they nor any other Chris Paul fan wants to talk about is wins. At the end of the day, the PER, Hollinger stats, laws of basketball quantum physics stats, or whatever other stats you want to point to are meaningless if they dont result in wins. The plain fact is the numbers in the "W" and "L" columns are all that matters, and of those, Deron owns the "W"s over Paul and he has a loooooooooot more playoff "W's" under his belt.

When its all said and done, the best is determined by who wins. Magic had Kareem, Worthy, Scott, and a bunch of other stud players around him. Does that take away from Magic's greatness? People complain Paul's cast is inferior...I disagree...but should we discount Williams because of what the players around him do? Hell no. Williams' teams win....bottom line. And they especially get it done against Paul's Hornets.

[erudite23]

Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, the best interior player by a mile on the LAL and a quality defensive presence in his own right was, oh wait, a terrible defensive player with a +3.6 defensive mark. Apparently, Lamar Odom--not Andrew Bynum (-1.2)--was the REAL defensive presence on the champs. He posted the best mark of any PF in the league, and 4th overall, at -8.0. So that's why the Lakers were so good defensively that season!!!

I agree with the rest of your post but your sarcasm is off base on the Lakers. Virtually any dissection of game footage shows Odom truly is our best defender when all things are considered (i.e. rebounding). His man-to-man defense needs some work but his rotations, versatility, defensive rebounding, pick and roll defense, effort, hustle, and even perimeter closeouts are all top notch.

Pau Gasol is a really bad defender. At times he does a solid job challenging shots but a moderately healthy Bynum is a far superior man-to-man and rotational defender except in situations where someone needs to fly out to the perimeter to block a Ray Allen 3 pointer. Bynum's only real flaw as a defensive center is his tendency to pick up stupid fouls and, of course, the inability of a 300lb guy to close out on the perimeter.

Trust me, you don't have to sell me on Odom. He has been your best player, offensively and defensively, against my team for the last 4 years. I know and respect his game.

That said, the Lakers obviously go as Bynum goes defensively. Just look at this season. They are a mediocre defensive team (although still very good at contesting shots, they don't clear the boards or force TOs nearly was well as with Bynum in) this season after being a dominant one last year. You can't possibly support the fact that Odom has a greater impact than Bynum on that end. And as much as I agree that Pau isn't a GREAT defender, he is very good under certain conditions, and has become a monster defensive rebounder. His length really disrupts things close to the hoop and he has toughened up physically and mentally as he's gotten older.

Whatever your point might be, you can't possibly think that Lamar Odom in 08-09 was the 4th biggest force defensively in the league, while Bynum was middle of the road, and Pau Gasol was between "poor" and "terrible". Which is what the numbers are suggesting.

[Shaq Fu Panda]

Deron Williams would never allow his team to lose by 60 points AT HOME.

Chris Paul was getting tossed to the ground that whole series by hard fouls, without his teammates backing him up and without stepping up his game. Also got torched by Billups.

The Denver series exposed him to not being a true leader.

His man to man defense is on par with Steve Nash. I routinely watch him get torched by elite point guards. Just because he gets a lot of steals doesn't mean he shuts others down. Iverson had a lot of steals. Amare had a lot of blocks.

Stats dont tell the whole story. You actually have to watch the games.

Is Chris Paul a top 3 point guard? Yes.
Best? No

[Bgil]

Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, the best interior player by a mile on the LAL and a quality defensive presence in his own right was, oh wait, a terrible defensive player with a +3.6 defensive mark. Apparently, Lamar Odom--not Andrew Bynum (-1.2)--was the REAL defensive presence on the champs. He posted the best mark of any PF in the league, and 4th overall, at -8.0. So that's why the Lakers were so good defensively that season!!!

I agree with the rest of your post but your sarcasm is off base on the Lakers. Virtually any dissection of game footage shows Odom truly is our best defender when all things are considered (i.e. rebounding). His man-to-man defense needs some work but his rotations, versatility, defensive rebounding, pick and roll defense, effort, hustle, and even perimeter closeouts are all top notch.

Pau Gasol is a really bad defender. At times he does a solid job challenging shots but a moderately healthy Bynum is a far superior man-to-man and rotational defender except in situations where someone needs to fly out to the perimeter to block a Ray Allen 3 pointer. Bynum's only real flaw as a defensive center is his tendency to pick up stupid fouls and, of course, the inability of a 300lb guy to close out on the perimeter.

Trust me, you don't have to sell me on Odom. He has been your best player, offensively and defensively, against my team for the last 4 years. I know and respect his game.

That said, the Lakers obviously go as Bynum goes defensively. Just look at this season. They are a mediocre defensive team (although still very good at contesting shots, they don't clear the boards or force TOs nearly was well as with Bynum in) this season after being a dominant one last year. You can't possibly support the fact that Odom has a greater impact than Bynum on that end. And as much as I agree that Pau isn't a GREAT defender, he is very good under certain conditions, and has become a monster defensive rebounder. His length really disrupts things close to the hoop and he has toughened up physically and mentally as he's gotten older.

Whatever your point might be, you can't possibly think that Lamar Odom in 08-09 was the 4th biggest force defensively in the league, while Bynum was middle of the road, and Pau Gasol was between "poor" and "terrible". Which is what the numbers are suggesting.

Yes, I'd say the numbers (as far as the Lakers bigs are concerned) are spot on. Remember, the Lakers play a defensive scheme highly dependent on rotational ability and switching not entirely unlike Team USA. Lamar is simply better than Pau in such a scheme.

In 08-09, Pau was not contesting shots well. He averaged 1 block per game in 37 minutes... which is downright horrible for a PF/C. Bynum and Lamar averaged 1.8 and 1.3 blocks per game respectively and both guys played under 30 minutes a game.

Lamar is a superior defender to Bynum when the latter is hurt... which is basically all the time. But even hurt, Bynum is a superior defender to Gasol.

The Lakers defense in 2010-2011 has be weak first because Kobe was not playing good defense (injury, out of shape etc), Barnes is a step down defensively from Artest, and Gasol is playing like crap defensively. Now, Kobe's defense has improved but Gasol is playing like he's worn out so his defense is still horrid.

WRT to Lamar being the 4th best defender in the NBA: No, I don't believe that nor do I believe that's what the numbers say. The numbers say the gap between him and his replacement is the 4th highest in the NBA. That I believe since his primary replacements were Pau Gasol and Josh Powell.