2010-11 Player of the Year thread

[Doctor MJ]

The interesting thing is that Howard basically had the same stats as during the regular season. He played more minutes and ended up with a higher TS%, which was caused to a great deal by his better free throw shooting. His TRB% was bascially the same, his PER was the same, his WS/48 was the same. The beastly thing was his minutes played.

This though seems like a really good point to consider. Most of Dwight's rate numbers are actually remarkably similar to the regular season. If you want to damp down how highly you think of his TS% because of your perception of how easy it was for him to score with the Hawks defensive strategy that's cool, but Howard's a 26 PER and 0.235 WP/48 guy. So a good amount of his volume stat improvement is just coming from increased playing time.

[mysticbb]

I'm not looking at their teams. I'm just saying if we look at the season retroactively, basing the top 5 on who we would pick to build a team around for the 2010-2011 season, as of the end of the first round, I'd have rather have 83 games of Durant than I would want 78 games of Nowitzki. Or 88 games of Kobe than 78 games of Nowitzki.

Oh, In understood that very well. And don't get me wrong I like the way you are approaching it, but we obviously disagree to a great deal about the impact those players had during the regular season. The On/Off Court numbers suggest that the Thunder without Durant played much better than the Mavericks without Nowitzki. Thus it is reasonable to assume that the Thunder support is overall better than the Mavericks support. In such a case Nowitzki ended up helping his team to more wins than Durant did is somewhat quite telling. I rather take 73 games of Nowitzki with a 55-18 record than 78 games with Durant and a 52-26 record. The Mavericks with Nowitzki were +533, the Thunder with Durant at +269. The difference is massive here besides the fact that Nowitzki played less minutes.

A similar thing can we see with Bryant. During the time Bryant was on the court the Lakers outscored their opponents by +423. That is right away 110 points less than Nowitzki in 9 games less accumulated.

And that's why I don't get your ranking. I take 73 games of Nowitzki over 78 games by Durant and 82 games by Bryant.

its not penalizing him per say, its just giving him what i perceive as his real impact not what he did vs the hawks. dwight at 70% ts% on those numbers is not what i think dwight could normally do ever

And how would you look at Howard with 26 points on 64.4 TS% instead of 27 points on 67.7 TS%? Because if Howard would have made his free throws during the regular at the same rate as during the series against Atlanta, Howard would end up with 64.4 TS%. A big part of his TS% increase was due to better free throw shooting. Was the Hawks "defense" against Howard's free throw shooting just bad? ;)

[alucryts]

And how would you look at Howard with 26 points on 64.4 TS% instead of 27 points on 67.7 TS%? Because if Howard would have made his free throws during the regular at the same rate as during the series against Atlanta, Howard would end up with 64.4 TS%. A big part of his TS% increase was due to better free throw shooting. Was the Hawks "defense" against Howard's free throw shooting just bad?

why exactly are you just giving dwight nearly 10% on his ft%.....his 6 game average was almost 10% higher than his 82 game average. the whole point was to show his real impact and if the playoffs went on, chances are dwight ft% will drop. i could be wrong but 10% leaps overnight are usually hot streaks, not epiphanies.

[mysticbb]

I just try to give you an explanation where the high TS% comes from. The Hawks defense against Howard was only responsible for a part of that, the other part is due to the higher ft%. That's all what I wanted to say.

[alucryts]

I just try to give you an explanation where the high TS% comes from. The Hawks defense against Howard was only responsible for a part of that, the other part is due to the higher ft%. That's all what I wanted to say.

i guess i see where you are coming from, but either way no matter where it actually is from his ppg and ts% mostly were inflated and to a much lesser degree rebounds.

[mysticbb]

i guess i see where you are coming from, but either way no matter where it actually is from his ppg and ts% mostly were inflated and to a much lesser degree rebounds.

How much do think those stats were "inflated"? I still don't know what you mean by this. If we take the usual efficiency from the regular season and including the better free throw numbers, we get 26 points per game instead of 27. The rebounding numbers are the SAME! Unless you think that Howard's boxscore numbers were also inflated during the regular season I don't see much of an argument here.

Again, usually we can say that a player's stats are inflated, if he cheats on defense to have more engery on offense against weaker teams. That isn't the case for Howard against the Hawks. Howard had still a big impact on the defensive end, something which isn't completely captured by the boxscore stats. Now, if you want to say that the offensive numbers are slightly inflated due to weaker defense that gets easily compensated by the better defense. Overall I would say the impression we get out of Howard's boxscore stats is strongly related to his impact. The +/- numbers are indidcating this. No idea, but unless you think there happened something transcendent, something which only a minority of people saw with their eyes and no stats was able to catch, we have to conclude that Howard's impact was as much there as during the regular season.

[nonemus]

Advanced stats in Postseason of suspect POY players (Dirk, Durant, Dwight, Lebron, Rose, Wade):

PER:

1. Dirk (29.2)
2. Wade (28.1)
3. Lebron (26.2)
4/5. Dwight/Durant (26.1)
6. Rose (25.2)

WS48

1. Dirk (.289)
2. Durant (.264)
3. Wade (.252)
4. Howard (.239)
5. Lebron (.232)
6. Rose (.219)

APM

1. Dirk (+14.32)
2. Howard (+11.16)
3. Wade (+7.93)
4. Lebron (+7.68)
5. Durant (+6.37)
6. Rose (+6.25)

Average position on rankings (bad metric, I know )

1. Dirk (1)
2. Wade (2.7)
3. Howard (3.5)
4. Durant (3.8)
5. Lebron (4)
6. Rose (6)

[Sinant]

In conclusion: Wade has been terrific in the playoffs, but Dirk is a goddam monster.

[mopper8]

In conclusion: Wade has been terrific in the playoffs, but Dirk is a goddam monster.

Indeed, Wade has been fantastic. Often, on both sides of the court

Not enough said in this thread about the work Lebron and Wade have done defensively. They've been incredible IMO.

[Doctor MJ]

In conclusion: Wade has been terrific in the playoffs, but Dirk is a goddam monster.

Indeed, Wade has been fantastic. Often, on both sides of the court

Not enough said in this thread about the work Lebron and Wade have done defensively. They've been incredible IMO.

Indeed, acknowledging the work on defense is critical as we move forward into future super-teams. The narrative for super-team fantasies has always been "They'll be unstoppable. If you double Player A, they'll just pass it to Player B and he'll score with ease.". As we've seen in Miami, this isn't remotely the case. Miami's offense isn't even clearly better than Cleveland's was because it's simply not that easy to run an all-time great level offense.

Miami's success then is then predicated upon supplementing a strong (but not unreal) offense, with tough as nails defense. Something that is only possible because the stars have remained super-focused on it all year. Anyone see Melo & Amare doing that in New York?

[alucryts]

i was impressed with lebron and wades defense on rose at the end of game 2

[Sedale Threatt]

Anyone see Melo & Amare doing that in New York?

You already know the answer to that.

[Sedale Threatt]

i was impressed with lebron and wades defense on rose at the end of game 2

When they dial in they're pretty awesome.

[nonemus]

i was impressed with lebron and wades defense on rose at the end of game 2

When they dial in they're pretty awesome.

A cool stats about the Heat's defense in the PS: In close game situations (with 5 points in the final 5 minutes), the Heat have a Drtg of 66.7. WOW.

Also, in the regular season Wade had aveaged 7.2 rebounds PER 36 in clutch situations. In the playoffs, he's averaged 18.2 rebounds in such situations.

[CellarDoor]

i was impressed with lebron and wades defense on rose at the end of game 2

When they dial in they're pretty awesome.

A cool stats about the Heat's defense in the PS: In close game situations (with 5 points in the final 5 minutes), the Heat have a Drtg of 66.7. WOW.

Also, in the regular season Wade had aveaged 7.2 rebounds PER 36 in clutch situations. In the playoffs, he's averaged 18.2 rebounds in such situations.

Yeah, end of game defense from superstars is actually quite good generally (see Kobe, Rose, Wade, Lebron and even Melo sometimes)

And Lebron overall has been a freak on D with only some minimal lapses here and there where he's gotten caught ball watching.

Wade though, hasn't impressed me over the course of the games. He just seems flat out tired or disinterested. Are heat fans noticing this or am I slowly growing to hate Wade more than Lebron?

Also, Rose's defense, after all our touting in the RS, has been pretty pedestrian overall against Miami.

[RocketPower23]

Dirk is pretty good.

[alucryts]

to me at this point i feel like its dirks to lose and rose might get a pity #5 from me just because of the historical context of him being MVP...maybe. ill see how the rest of his post season goes

[Doctor MJ]

to me at this point i feel like its dirks to lose and rose might get a pity #5 from me just because of the historical context of him being MVP...maybe. ill see how the rest of his post season goes

Sounds about right. Of course, keeping Dirk ahead of a Finals MVP LeBron will be tough to swallow, but as things stand right at this moment, non one has been more impressive than Dirk.

[JordansBulls]

to me at this point i feel like its dirks to lose and rose might get a pity #5 from me just because of the historical context of him being MVP...maybe. ill see how the rest of his post season goes

Well if Dirk beats Kobe, Durant and Rose or Lebron/Wade I don't see how you don't give him POY. Not to mention he would have won 2 of those series without HCA.

[sp6r=underrated]

1. Howard
2. Lebron

----

3. Dirk
4. Wade
5. Durant
6. Rose