Doctor MJ wrote:I can see how you would see the conversation differently. I'd imagine it's frustrating to be accused of not giving specific statistical counterarguments when you mention something as specific as the Sacramento example, but to me that's not really an argument. Finding an anecdote that makes one system evaluation look questionable is something you can do for everything, arguing why you reject one system in favor of another with precise but generalizable reasoning is what I'm always looking for.
To be fair, it's not just one anecdote. For example, the 2008 Jazz are better than all the Showtime Lakers in ORtg differential, except the 87' team. That's a bit strange, isn't it?
Comparing ORtg/DRtg across seasons is extremely dicey to say the least. never-mind that the composition of teams differed from year to year. A great offense in a defensive league will have better differentials for example.
And at the heart of the issue, it gets even more dicey to equate an individual's presence on a team with it's ORtg/DRtg. If we were comparing TD to KG, would SA's DRtg differentials vs Minny's DRtg differentials trump all debate? That's kinda what it seems like here with Stockton/Isiah/Gp vs Nash.
Doctor MJ wrote:I just think you've got a fundamental misconception. It's like you look at this stat like it's a means to end when it's actually an end. It's a valid stat. Is there noise in the mix? Yes, but it should never cross your mind that a team the stat is simply wrong. This is a case where if contemporary observers disagree drastically with the stats, then the contemporary observers are wrong.
Now though, I'm right there with you that there's additional levels of nuance to look at here, and one of those things is playoff ratings. Those Pistons developed their reputations based on fierce playoff performance. I'd never call the Kings the equal of those Piston teams, for that reason.
This is where we differ in opinion. I don't think points per possession is a flawless way to rate an offense or defense. The King's DRtg isn't wrong, the use of that DRtg to say they were better than the Pistons however, would be. I'm not taking issue with the stats, but how they are being used.
As i pointed out above, The 89' Pistons were #2 in opposing PPG, while the Kings were #19. the 89' Pistons were #2 in opposing FG%, while the 02' Kings were #21. The Pistons had better defenders at every position and Rodman off the bench. They were a more versatile defensive team, and light years tougher.
Circling back to the Nash conversation: If his offenses had a tendency to disappear in the playoffs based on those ratings analogously to how the Pistons defensive ratings improve, that would be very damning indeed. That didn't happen though. So using these facts to damn Nash is delving into anecdotal territory, and then not even drilling down as deep as possible. When you drill down you can safely say "Yes, teams can deviate in their level of performance from regular to post season", this does not give you license to apply that insight willy nilly though. Just because it can happen, doesn't mean it did happen in this case, and the specific stats tell us it didn't.
I never "damned" Nash because of the Sun's performance in the playoffs. The whole issue came up when I referenced how the Suns weren't as versatile as the Showtime Lakers offensively, and how the Lakers were much better in the halfcourt as opposed to other offensive teams, which is a big factor in why they had playoff success as a run & gun team. the whole conversation was specifically about why the Suns couldn't get past the Spurs, and why they struggled against the LA teams in 06'.
penbeast0 wrote:You underestimate the Euroflopper. The Kings had two very good defenders.
Oh, and Gary Payton should be in the mix with Nash, Isiah, and Stockton. As Stockton is to Nash, Payton is to Isiah . . .
Payton is slightly more efficient while being slightly less explosive.
Payton has better shooting range, Isiah draws more fouls (for a total result favoring Payton)
Payton has less assists but also a lot less turnovers and a higher assist to turnover ratio.
Overall, they are roughly equivalent offensive players (and the Sonics offense was better than the Pistons)
And, of course, individually, Payton was a helluva better defender than Isiah.
Team success favors Detroit though only by about the same as Stock's Jazz beats out Nash's Suns and Payton had a lot less talent around him, basically just Shawn Kemp and a bunch of wing shooters (Schrempf, Ellis, Hawkins, etc.)
GP is an interesting case, as is Kidd. The whole group of PGs coming up are extremely diverse.
Those Sonic teams were actually considered pretty loaded back then though. They had some PS chokes. I actually have Kidd over GP right now, and the more I think about it, he should be in discussions with Walt/Stock/Nash/Isiah too. His horrific shooting is his obvious flaw, but as a pure passer, he might be the best behind Magic.