The Lebron Thread

[Rerisen]

Define being "on".

5/10 on clutch time three pointers. The Bulls usually play great defense on Lebron (even better on Wade) so you can't expect him to produce his normal levels against the best D in the league. And actually he didn't, his ECF TS% was actually slightly declined than his regular season numbers, and that's with him hitting a bunch of threes he didn't really have business, and with Luol Deng up in his grill on almost every jumper.

ESPN's Heat Blog caught on to this, how it was a worrying trend for Wade and LeBron to be doing so much hero ball with jumpers in the 2nd and 3rd round. And while it continued in Game 1 in the Finals, it was a strategy destined to fail long-term, and when it did, their offense looked like a disorganized mess.

He had made seven of his previous 11 3-pointers coming into the game, and after he nailed another one early, it was his conscience that disappeared. It didn’t help that he kept making long shots he probably had no business making, including several off-balance jumpers at the end of the shot clock that were anything but sensible.

In the fourth quarter when the Heat were in dire trouble, James stopped orchestrating the offense on several possessions. He didn’t run the plays he and Wade had honed for months and made them so difficult to guard under pressure. He didn’t drive, as the Mavs had started to double-team him as he came off screens. James has attempted only six free throws in the two games. The fewest he’d previously had in any two-game stretch in the playoffs was 11. .

Same concerns

LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are many things, but outstanding 3-point shooters they are not. If we’re being honest with ourselves, James is barely an average shooter from downtown (he shot 33 percent this season; league average was 36 percent) and Wade is only average on his best days.

But lately, the two stars have forgotten their limitations as sharpshooters and suddenly look as though they're Steve Kerr and Ray Allen.

In Game 1 of the NBA Finals, James shot 4-for-5 from downtown and Wade drilled two of his four attempts from beyond the arc. Their hot shooting on Tuesday came on the heels of a combined 4-for-8 shooting performance against Chicago in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals, with a flurry of 3s in the final minutes.

Right now, Wade and James are mostly lucky with their 3-point daggers. And for one game snapshots, luck is sometimes all you need.
...
When James hit that virtually impossible 25-foot 3-pointer with Shawn Marion’s hand in his face at the end of the third quarter, AmericanAirlines Arena shook with delight -- and disbelief. Count Wade in that group.
...
Spoelstra will take it. He knows title teams need this luck. When 30 percent shooters start turning into 70 percent shooters, that fortune is a necessary element in championship ball. And we’re seeing it with the Heat these days.

But will it last?

That’s the big question.

These guys got out of their element. It's no big surprise that they started off this year with a kind of pact to stop shooting three pointers. Of course you can't really do that, and they just saw their long two's increase instead, which isn't a real efficient shot, even if you hit it well like LeBron. But it showed they were cognizant of some of their mistakes.

[SideshowBob]

Fair enough. Like I said earlier, I'll definitely give you that their 3 point shooting in both those series was well above the norm. I can't argue with you there.

My focus was more on the mid range, where Lebron wasn't really what I'd consider "on."

[Rerisen]

My focus was more on the mid range, where Lebron wasn't really what I'd consider "on."

I'm not suggesting he's usually a poor shooter there, but he made a lot of really tough shots vs the Bulls even from mid-range, and that's the best you can hope to force him into.

And like I said before, great players can do that, but it can be a dangerous habit to rely on.

LeBron (and Wade too) are not at Kobe's stage athletically to where they should have to surrender to such tough jumpers so often as they kind of got into.

Also the sabotage theory is incredibly hard to find credible. Not least because you don't sacrifice a Finals, and your own legacy, to prove a point. *Maybe* in the dog days of the regular season vs a crap team... but not on that stage.

[IG2]

I'm not suggesting he's usually a poor shooter there, but he made a lot of really tough shots vs the Bulls even from mid-range, and that's the best you can hope to force him into.

Really, pretty much every jumper that LeBron takes is well-contested. He's not a catch-n-shoot player or someone who comes off screens, so it's not a matter of beating the defender to the spot and getting a clean look off. All of LeBron's jumpers come from the triple threat or off the dribble going 1-on-1, which are situations where the defender will always be right in his grill.

As far as the 3's are concerned, I just see things evening out. He wasn't as good from mid-range against Chicago as he normally was, but his 3pt shooting improved. This type of stuff happens all the time.

[SideshowBob]

IG2, what are your thoughts on his playmaking in the past two seasons.

The more I look at it, the more I think that his inability to drive has caused his playmaking abilities to fall off as well. He can't drive and dish for high percentage shots anymore, and a lot of his assists this season are coming off of those fast break buckets that the Heat are piling up on.

Once again, we saw last year in the playoffs that his assists dropped off as well, for the same reason. Less transition buckets, not just for him, but the team as a whole. He played 44 minutes a game, but only managed to put up 5.9 assists a game, and his AST% dropped by about 10%, despite a decrease in his usage

[CJ_18]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q67kIcfQeto&feature=g-u-u&context=G275df78FUAAAAAAAIAA[/youtube]

^ This was uploaded on YT today. A 41/9/6 game from LeBron from the 08-09 season. Smoki2323 has a lot of good stuff on LeBron from his Cleveland days. Anyway, watch the video and try not to get too depressed. Besides jumpers, there's not a single thing current LeBron can do that he's doing in this video.

Ive seen him do all that stuff. Whether it be this season or during last seasons playoffs in the recent past. I could agree maybe agree that LeBron was maybe a touch quicker back then but that is merely because he was 22 years old and much lighter. The less weight coupled with being at 22 which is basically your athletic prime is the reason he might be a touch less quick. But i think what you all you pessimists are trying to aruge is that he can't do certain things anymore. But like i said, ive seen him do all that recently, just not as often. I think the main reason why is because teams are learning how to defend him better so that he cant get inside too easily, and that in combination with his increase in willingness to take jumpers are the reasons why he doesnt drive and you dont see any of this. I wish he did drive more often like he used to instead of being willing to take jumpers because how amazing of a finisher inside he is. However, the 'athletic decline' is not a result of him losing everything, its a result of him driving to the basket less frequently in the half court. Obviously his quickness is not going to be nearly as great as it was when he was 22 and carried less mass, but what he has given up in quickness he has made up for in strength and power. I wish he did do all those things as frequently as he used to, but due to teams not letting him get inside as easily and his willingness to take more outside shots, thats why his amazing athleticism is not displayed as often as it used to be, buts its all still there. Theres been no drastic decline of any sort.

[SideshowBob]

But quickness and explosiveness aren't even the biggest factors we're arguing for here. Mobility is. He moves around like a big man now. It's like passing the ball to Dwight Howard on the wing and telling him to beat his man off the dribble (obviously an exaggeration, but it's the gist of the argument). He's constantly turning the ball over on drives because he can't keep control of his dribble; he can't penetrate unless he backs up to halfcourt and builds a full head of steam; he can't accelerate at all. I've watched 95% of his games as a player of the Heat, and frankly, I haven't seen him even come close to doing what he was able to do there.

And the weight thing doesn't even make sense. He was at around 265 in his last year in Cleveland, and he was muscling guys on the block with ease, not even a guy like Artest could handle him. Why would he need to increase his weight now?

[toodles23]

Okay, here's a quick telling number.

By using synergy's "transition" and "off cut" numbers for Lebron, and by incorporating those into the "At Rim" numbers from the Hoopdata gamelogs, I've found that INCLUDING post ups, Lebron gets 2.38 attempts per game at the rim in the halfcourt. He converts at a 68% clip, and I'd assume that if we knew how many of those "post plays" were concluded with field goals at the basket, then we could really get an idea of how many times he's attacking the basket off the dribble (likely about once per game) and how well he is able to finish.

Does anyone have these numbers from past years? Namely 2009 and 2010.

Good investigation, this is what we've been harping on for a year+ now, but I haven't seen any numbers to support it before. I'd like to see what his numbers were from '05-'10 too.

[SideshowBob]

I think I'm going to take it further and factor in FTA as well. The trial version of Synergy provides the drawfoul rate on all plays, and that can give a slightly better idea of how he's attacking the rim. However, I cannot account for at rim attempts on post ups, and I have no data from previous years to compare to.

Would anyone with a synergy account be willing to provide the information?

[IG2]

IG2, what are your thoughts on his playmaking in the past two seasons.

I'm actually content with his ability to set up his teammates. Obviously, he cannot drive and dish like his Cleveland days, but he still regularly sets up shooters with good looks and even the bigs down low (although they never finish). His touch and court vision is so elite that he's been able to compensate for his regressed drive-n-dish ability through it.

I wouldn't make much of the decrease in his apg in last year's playoffs. He's playing with another superstar-ball handler, it's bound to happen.

[SideshowBob]

Alright, I looked over field goals off of offensive rebounds earlier.

The updated number for estimated drives per game, is 1.6, and he converts on 1.3 of them, about 82%. Still haven't been able to factor in "at rim" attempts off of post ups yet, because without full access to Synergy, I cannot determine the number.

[IG2]

I've found that INCLUDING post ups, Lebron gets 2.38 attempts per game at the rim in the halfcourt.

This really says it all, doesn't it? I mean, I know we don't have the data from past seasons, but I think we can all agree the number is a heck of a lot higher than 2.38.

[SideshowBob]

Actually 1.6 now, because earlier I did not account for field goals off of offensive rebounds. This is even more alarming. Assuming all of his free throw attempts come off of drives (hint: they don't), the total drive attempts is likely around 4 a game, out of about 24 "true shooting possessions" per game.

[IG2]

Ive seen him do all that stuff. Whether it be this season or during last seasons playoffs in the recent past.

Would love to see some clips.

[BBallFreak]

I don't understand this thread. Is James not a freak athlete anymore who has literally jumped over another player in game? Is he not the best player in the game playing on one of the best teams in the game?

Sideshowbob says James has lost mobility and moves more like a power forward yet neglects to acknowledge the point that he's built like Karl Malone - by his choice. The question bob isn't whether he's lost athleticism it's why he's chosen to sacrifice it for increased body mass!

Let's get some perspective please. He hasn't lost it, he's sacrificed it...

[CJ_18]

dear god you guys are like your own cult discussing your theories..

I dont need to justify that LeBron is the athletic beast that he is. He does things that noone else in the league does on a nightly basis, he might not be drivingas much as he used to, but when he does its just as amazng as any other time in his career. He also gets crazy blocks and steals and transition plays that are no betteror worse than any other time. Watch the games and youll see amazing stuff from him on a regular basis. Stop looking at every little thing under a microscope and appreciate the greatest all around talent you will ever see. You guys take the amazing things he does for granted. Hes in the prime of his career so appreciate it while you can.

[CJ_18]

He moves around like a big man now.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-do9-jzqxg[/youtube]

[SideshowBob]

Sideshowbob says James has lost mobility and moves more like a power forward yet neglects to acknowledge the point that he's built like Karl Malone - by his choice. The question bob isn't whether he's lost athleticism it's why he's chosen to sacrifice it for increased body mass!

Let's get some perspective please. He hasn't lost it, he's sacrificed it...

Take a look at this article from 2009
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1151216/index.htm

And just how big is James, exactly? Well, that is a matter of intense speculation around the NBA. He came into the league in 2003 weighing 240 pounds and is listed at 250 in this year's media guide, but that number is clearly low. There are whispers that he goes 265; one report recently had him at 274. "He's at least 260, right?" guessed Jackson, who added that D-ing up James is like "guarding a brick wall."

In an attempt to settle the matter last week I brought a scale to my interview with James at a ballroom in San Francisco's St. Regis Hotel. He laughed, but didn't get on. "I can't let everybody know everything about LeBron," said James, who more than any other star understands the value of mystique. He did joke that he'd "gotten fat"—this from a man with 5% body fat whose raised veins run like tiny interstates up his arms and calves—then hemmed and hawed before confiding that he had gained eight pounds this summer "even though I was trying to lose 10." That said, a Cavs source puts James's weight "between 265 and 270."

Now look at this report from this year's preseason

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamiheat/post/_/id/10513/how-wade-big-three-stayed-big-in-lockout

Since then, James and Bosh have joined in on Wade’s workout a couple of times per week, only with a few adjustments for both. James, who Downs measured at 265 pounds and having a 5.2 percent body fat, wasn’t focused on any particular growth area, but Bosh wanted to improve his lower-body strength in the post and for off-balanced shooting. Bosh came in at 238 pounds and has since gained a few pounds by practicing down-low moves with resistance bands.

So, if we believe the reports, he hasn't gained a pound in Miami, so something else has caused this drastic change.

And if we DON'T believe it, then I still don't understand why has he put on weight. He showed in his older days that he was more than capable of overpowering people on the block, then why increase his body mass to the point where his impact on games has been severely limited?

Once again, look at 1:41 and 2:16. He already had the ability to muscle the second biggest small forward in the league, what would be the reason for putting on more weight? If that doesn't convince you on that point, I can dig up tons of more highlights displaying that an increase in weight wouldn't be necessary for him to bang down low.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiN_HjdybKw[/youtube]

I don't understand this thread. Is James not a freak athlete anymore who has literally jumped over another player in game? Is he not the best player in the game playing on one of the best teams in the game?

Also, I've mentioned time after time that I'm not concerned with his leaping ability. Jumping over a 5'11 guy, while certainly impressive in an in-game situation, has nothing to do with what we're talking about.

It's not like we're Lebron haters here, I've followed him for his entire career, and I tend to support him in most debates. In fact, the reason I'm trying to argue this is because it's blatantly false when people call him out for not taking over a game because he lacks the mentality to. To me, it's clear that he lacks the ability he previously had in his career, and the fact that the general assertion has become that Lebron has always been some uber-gifted athlete who doesn't play with heart and doesn't take over games is what ticks me off. It seems that no one acknowledged how capable he was in his Cleveland days, and it's what he's doing now that's falsely defining his career.

[treefi]

This is absurd.

He's having his best year....? 30-8-7 shooting 55.3% in the least MPG of his career.

[Rebuilding Year]

I don't understand this thread. Is James not a freak athlete anymore who has literally jumped over another player in game? Is he not the best player in the game playing on one of the best teams in the game?

Sideshowbob says James has lost mobility and moves more like a power forward yet neglects to acknowledge the point that he's built like Karl Malone - by his choice. The question bob isn't whether he's lost athleticism it's why he's chosen to sacrifice it for increased body mass!

Let's get some perspective please. He hasn't lost it, he's sacrificed it...

This thread is only being dragged on by Sideshow Bob and the only other person as derangedly obsessed, his alt account IG2.

Aside from outright denying that LeBron has gotten better (which is patently obvious to everyone), they insist on hanging onto the "LeBron years" in Cleveland as if they could only be the best years of LeBron's career. Obviously Miami fans don't deserve LeBron, so they have no business getting the best production out of him. LeBron betrayed his "hometown" and now "the curse" has him shooting a woeful 55%, ripping off 24-point quarters, and literally jumping over people for one-handed alley oops. It's like all the empirical evidence in the world isn't enough.