RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #2

[janmagn]

Right now, I'm looking my bigs to be in Hakeem/Kareem/Duncan/Wilt/Russell order. Convince me someone should be higher/lower

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[Doctor MJ]

Real quick:

Someone made a statement implying that Kareem's impact could be approximated by Shaqs impact. I disagree.

Shaqs attacks are rapid. The defense must prepare before he gets the ball because afterward there's little to be done. This fact is what gives him gravity, and it is a gravity optimized for giving space to perimeter teammates.

Kareem is methodical. The defense has time to adjust optimally regardless of their set up before he gets the ball. He probably has more in common with Dantley than Shaq in terms of the shape of his impact.


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[trex_8063]

@ drza and Texas Chuck - I need you to specify your 2nd pick.

Will my vote count if I don't specify a 2nd pick? It's clear that my vote (Russell) will be one of the top 2 finishers, so my 2nd wouldn't be put into play. And I'm not settled on who I'm voting next. But if my vote won't count unless I specify a 2nd, I'll put someone in just as a placeholder

Yes, it will count.

[drza]

Real quick:

Someone made a statement implying that Kareem's impact could be approximated by Shaqs impact. I disagree.

Shaqs attacks are rapid. The defense must prepare before he gets the ball because afterward there's little to be done. This fact is what gives him gravity, and it is a gravity optimized for giving space to perimeter teammates.

Kareem is methodical. The defense has time to adjust optimally regardless of their set up before he gets the ball. He probably has more in common with Dantley than Shaq in terms of the shape of his impact.


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You just made the same point I did, but in a much quicker, more concise method. And to reiterate, I agree...Kareem didn't have Shaq's gravity. If he did, his impact would have been larger than it was

[trex_8063]

Right now, I'm looking my bigs to be in Hakeem/Kareem/Duncan/Wilt/Russell order. Convince me someone should be higher/lower

Lähetetty minun LG-H440n laitteesta Tapatalkilla

Within that hierarchy, I would argue Russell probably doesn't belong last, on the basis of in-era impact, some of these discussions (I think more from last thread than this one) about scarcity of elite defensive impact (non-redundant, and more reliably additive), how he doesn't take much of anything off the table (from teammates) offensively, and his leadership intangibles. Though ultimately it depends a lot on your criteria (obviously) and exactly how you rate the competitiveness of that era (I'm guessing you don't think too highly of it if you have Bill and Wilt at the back end of that list).

Hakeem's an interesting one and admittedly difficult to place because his apparent quality as a player seems quite out of sync with his actual record of team success (though obv he did have largely crap for supporting cast during most of his career). But that's where he gets tough, depending on just how speculative you're comfortable being in your criteria (e.g. "if he'd had a supporting cast similar to X, Y, or Z, he'd have a lot more playoff success to show for it"); pending that, I could see him being anywhere from 1st to 5th among those five.

[eminence]

Real quick:

Someone made a statement implying that Kareem's impact could be approximated by Shaqs impact. I disagree.

Shaqs attacks are rapid. The defense must prepare before he gets the ball because afterward there's little to be done. This fact is what gives him gravity, and it is a gravity optimized for giving space to perimeter teammates.

Kareem is methodical. The defense has time to adjust optimally regardless of their set up before he gets the ball. He probably has more in common with Dantley than Shaq in terms of the shape of his impact.


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You just made the same point I did, but in a much quicker, more concise method. And to reiterate, I agree...Kareem didn't have Shaq's gravity. If he did, his impact would have been larger than it was

Same thought here. Good job summing up a complex question Doc MJ!

[Joao Saraiva]

Real quick:

Someone made a statement implying that Kareem's impact could be approximated by Shaqs impact. I disagree.

Shaqs attacks are rapid. The defense must prepare before he gets the ball because afterward there's little to be done. This fact is what gives him gravity, and it is a gravity optimized for giving space to perimeter teammates.

Kareem is methodical. The defense has time to adjust optimally regardless of their set up before he gets the ball. He probably has more in common with Dantley than Shaq in terms of the shape of his impact.


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It's also a diferent game. In KAJ's era teams didn't shoot so many 3s. But if you see the games he hasn't even touched the ball and you see the defense already ready to collapse on him.

Sure his post attacks are not as fast as Shaq's, and I think Shaq gives more impact with them but it's not like KAJ didn't make the gravity effect happen.

[ElGee]

The plan, though, is not too different from your typical regression based plus/minus stats. Like WOWYR, it will be making use of game data, rather than intra-game data that's used in RAPM. In contrast to WOWYR, though, the data won't be a vector of binary variables. Instead, the values of the data vector will be the proportion of the game that each player played. For instance, a player who played 36 minutes in a game will be indicated by a 0.75.

What's most important is that WOWYR gives Kareem's impact from 1970-84, so it's not entirely representative of his prime, but if I get this web scraper to work I can do I regression for 1970-77 or any other set of seasons.

I played with this idea, and it didn't yield better results at first blush. I think because there's a confound in play -- during blowouts, the "best" players will often play fewer minutes. During really close games, they are almost guaranteed to play big minutes (barring foul trouble). Either way, play with it -- exciting to have other people doing this stuff. I am trying to get to the next version this year, but haven't been able to revisit yet.

Also, I believe quarter-by-quarter scores are available for all games since the early 80s (and perhaps before -- not sure where the gaps are anymore), which is another level of the data that could be played with (Engelmann used this for the 90's to create "fake RAPM," inferring when rotation players played.) I've wondered if more accurate results could be generated by weighting the 1st and 3rd quarters.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #145:

Kareem - *14 (Blackmill, Clyde Frazier, Cyrusman122000, Dr Positivity, Hornet Mania, Joao Saraiva, LABird, Narigo,
Outside, PockyCandy, RCM88x, RSCD3_, trex_8063, TrueLAfan, wojoaderge) *you'll note that's 15 posters listed, but 2-3 did not provide arguments; knowing that real life interferes sometimes (a couple indicated they were going to come back with their arguments)......I'm trying uphold the principle rules of the project (it's not a poll; we're wanting arguments that reflect thoughtful selection, and also perhaps show you've been following the project and given consideration to counterpoint arguments) and not allow a double-standard for certain posters; but at the same time I don't want to overly penalize Kareem simply because life got in the way for some of us (and I don't want to constantly extend the thread length). I'm docking one vote as a means of sorting shooting up the middle of those two considerations. Fair enough? But seriously guys, do please provide some argumentation, even if it's just to cut/paste your arguments from a prior thread and adding just a line or two perhaps regarding some of the counter-points that had been provided.
Bill Russell - 8 (Texas Chuck, scabbarista, penbeast0, JordansBulls, drza, Doctor MJ, BasketballFan7, ardee)
Lebron James - 3 (Jaivl, Tesla, Winsome Gerbil)
Tim Duncan - 2 (eminence, micahclay)

So it would appear that even with the docking of one vote, Kareem still has a slim majority (and fwiw, one of the two TD votes had Kareem as 2nd, and two of the three Lebron votes had him as 2nd, so he most definitely would have taken this spot, even if I'd eliminated all three 1st place votes for lack of content).

I will get the #3 thread up shortly.

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[drza]

Real quick:

Someone made a statement implying that Kareem's impact could be approximated by Shaqs impact. I disagree.

Shaqs attacks are rapid. The defense must prepare before he gets the ball because afterward there's little to be done. This fact is what gives him gravity, and it is a gravity optimized for giving space to perimeter teammates.

Kareem is methodical. The defense has time to adjust optimally regardless of their set up before he gets the ball. He probably has more in common with Dantley than Shaq in terms of the shape of his impact.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

It's also a diferent game. In KAJ's era teams didn't shoot so many 3s. But if you see the games he hasn't even touched the ball and you see the defense already ready to collapse on him.

Sure his post attacks are not as fast as Shaq's, and I think Shaq gives more impact with them but it's not like KAJ didn't make the gravity effect happen.

I think it's a matter of degree. Shaq's gravity is the extreme version of it, almost the upper possible end. Kareem had some, I'm sure, but not to the same degree (not just 3-point shooting was different...illegal defense rules were differently enforced and then ultimately different for Shaq as well, in addition to the speed of the moves, the proximity to the rim and Shaq's explosiveness/massiveness that caused defenses to have to pre-attack him when he didn't have the ball to the nth degree).

Thing is, Shaq is really the only low-post volume scoring threat to measure out GOAT-levle in offensive impact stats in the databall era. My thought is, it's literally BECAUSE of his massive gravity that his offensive impact was so ridiculous. Scaling that impact back directly diminishes the level of impact a post scoring threat can have.

As I mentioned, I don't think this lowers Kareem's impact from Shaq to Al Jefferson. But, I do think it lowers it from Shaq to Karl Malone. Still a great player...but no longer on the tier with the GOATs. But, alas, looks like the vote is official and Kareem's in, so time to move on

[Doctor MJ]

Real quick:

Someone made a statement implying that Kareem's impact could be approximated by Shaqs impact. I disagree.

Shaqs attacks are rapid. The defense must prepare before he gets the ball because afterward there's little to be done. This fact is what gives him gravity, and it is a gravity optimized for giving space to perimeter teammates.

Kareem is methodical. The defense has time to adjust optimally regardless of their set up before he gets the ball. He probably has more in common with Dantley than Shaq in terms of the shape of his impact.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

It's also a diferent game. In KAJ's era teams didn't shoot so many 3s. But if you see the games he hasn't even touched the ball and you see the defense already ready to collapse on him.

Sure his post attacks are not as fast as Shaq's, and I think Shaq gives more impact with them but it's not like KAJ didn't make the gravity effect happen.

Much of Kareem's attacks came a bit further away from the rim. If you had a solid post defender you could keep him from being close and thus "collapse" didn't mean the perimeter was open.

In the case of the classic series against Portland the Blazers just put Walton on him and let the rest of the offensive players just do nothing as Kareem spent many second working to get his shot. Because of his skill he could have success individually there, but it didn't seem to come with the instant benefits that you get from Shaq.


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