Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread - 2022 NBA MVP Any thoughts?

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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#141 » by 70sFan » Sun Jan 23, 2022 5:01 pm

ty 4191 wrote:I think Wilt had a much more sophisticated offensive style and offensive repertoire than Shaq. He scored most of his points early career by having the team come down, pass the ball in, and taking a 15+ foot bank shot off the glass.

You know I'm a big Wilt fan, but how is that more sophisticated than what Shaq did? It's actually extremely simple, though effective, approach. That's my point - both Wilt and Shaq were primarly low post players and offensive rebounders. Wilt isn't modern player in terms of style, not any more than Shaq.

Can you imagine Shaq's FG% shooting delicate, extremely difficult fade away 15+ footers for 20+ of his shots a game? Wilt also had a gorgeous finger roll

I can, because I tracked Shaq's fadeaway efficiency - it wasn't pretty to say the least. That said, it's a difference in their scoring arsenal, but it doesn't make Wilt more sophisticated. Wilt didn't have Shaq's moves either.

an excellent pull up shot, and could drive and back players in at least as well as anyone in that era.

I haven't seen a single pull up shot from Wilt in all NBA footage I've seen. I have seen him taking and making straight jumpshots, but they weren't pull ups. It's fair to say that Wilt had a wider range than Shaq on his shot, but it reached around FT line - nothing further. At least I've never seen any evidences of that.

The free throw issue- which was purely psychological- would be fixed by a Sports Psychologist today.

I don't think it's true either. We still have a lot of horrible FT shooters in the league. Wilt tried a lot of things in his era, I doubt psychologist would change much.

I don't think you're a Jokic hater at all, but most people here seem either totally indifferent to, or straight up disdainful of, the greatest player on the planet the last 2 seasons. It's really quite strange. Why?

I don't know, maybe it's because of his unique style of play? Maybe it's because people forgot how it is to have center as the best player in the league?

That said, I don't think taking Shaq over him equals to hating.

And, I still contend that Giannis is peaking higher than Shaq ever did. And he's more skilled than Shaq was. Send me a PM if you're interested in not derailing this thread, and convincing me otherwise. :)

It's fine, I disagree but it requires a lot of talk and I don't think there is a wrong answer here :wink:
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#142 » by ty 4191 » Sun Jan 23, 2022 5:34 pm

70sFan wrote:That said, I don't think taking Shaq over him equals to hating.


What would it take for prime Jokic to equal prime Shaq, to you?

Also, how do you define "skills"? We probably have very different definitions, and are simply talking past each other.
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#143 » by 70sFan » Sun Jan 23, 2022 5:59 pm

ty 4191 wrote:What would it take for prime Jokic to equal prime Shaq, to you?

Reach GOAT-level in postseason for more than just one series against quality opponents. Also, prove that his defensive improvement is big enough to be sustained in postseason. I think Jokic is capable of that, but he still has to prove it.

Also, how do you define "skills"? We probably have very different definitions, and are simply talking past each other.

Did I ever mention "skills" in this discussion? Jokic is clearly more skilled than Shaq. He's more skilled than Wilt and Hakeem as well. It doesn't automatically make him better player though.
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#144 » by ty 4191 » Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:52 am

Another tremendous night. Watched the entire game.

34/9/8/2/1 on .727 shooting. Iced the game with 4 clutch free throws, too, after a huge Pistons comeback.

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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#145 » by WestGOAT » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:12 am

Question, if Jokic's defensive impact metric stats are considered inflated or somewhat exaggerated because his backup is godawful, what do you then make of Garnett's godly impact stats in Minnesota?
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#146 » by feyki » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:28 am

Shaq was the DPOY level defensive impact player, Jokic is not even on the Bird level defensively. He's not close to all defensive level. But definitely jumped positive impact on the defensive end.
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#147 » by AdagioPace » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:29 am

WestGOAT wrote:Question, if Jokic's defensive impact metric stats are considered inflated or somewhat exaggerated because his backup is godawful, what do you then make of Garnett's godly impact stats in Minnesota?


what do you mean by "inflated"? they're big but not fake. if the stats tells us that there's huge gap between an MVP player and his replacement then...there's a huge gap.
If you mean inflated relative to his peers in the league, I doubt many players (maybe only Embiid) could look similar in his place.
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#148 » by eminence » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:56 am

He's been quite good defensively this season. The only thing 'inflating' his impact (raw numbers, relative to some other star players in the league), is the rigid starter/bench rotation the Nuggets play. Jokic is fairly rarely asked to float bench lineups like other stars are.

Adjusted numbers try to alleviate that concern and still paint Jokic near the very top of the league. Here's shotcharts RAPM for some of the top stars around the league:

Curry +4.91 (1st)
Holiday +4.01 (3rd)
Jokic +3.87 (4th)
Gobert +3.79 (5th)
Garland +3.67 (6th)
Conley +3.46 (7th)
D'Angelo +3.11 (8th)
Giannis +2.94 (11th)
DeRozan +2.75 (14th)
Embiid +2.6 (19th)
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#149 » by WestGOAT » Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:36 pm

AdagioPace wrote:
WestGOAT wrote:Question, if Jokic's defensive impact metric stats are considered inflated or somewhat exaggerated because his backup is godawful, what do you then make of Garnett's godly impact stats in Minnesota?


what do you mean by "inflated"? they're big but not fake. if the stats tells us that there's huge gap between an MVP player and his replacement then...there's a huge gap.
If you mean inflated relative to his peers in the league, I doubt many players (maybe only Embiid) could look similar in his place.


I think quite a couple of posters (here and on the general forum) have (fairly) pointed out that Jokic has great defensive on/off because the Nuggets are playing JaMychal Green as back-up center..

I realize that regularized +/- tried to adjust for this, but I was just curious to hear other people's thoughts
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#150 » by ty 4191 » Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:44 pm

eminence wrote:He's been quite good defensively this season. The only thing 'inflating' his impact (raw numbers, relative to some other star players in the league), is the rigid starter/bench rotation the Nuggets play. Jokic is fairly rarely asked to float bench lineups like other stars are.

Adjusted numbers try to alleviate that concern and still paint Jokic near the very top of the league. Here's shotcharts RAPM for some of the top stars around the league:

Curry +4.91 (1st)
Holiday +4.01 (3rd)
Jokic +3.87 (4th)
Gobert +3.79 (5th)
Garland +3.67 (6th)
Conley +3.46 (7th)
D'Angelo +3.11 (8th)
Giannis +2.94 (11th)
DeRozan +2.75 (14th)
Embiid +2.6 (19th)


Do you have a link to your source, here? I'm really interested and can't find this stuff readily online. Thanks, man.
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#151 » by ShotCreator » Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:53 pm

eminence wrote:He's been quite good defensively this season. The only thing 'inflating' his impact (raw numbers, relative to some other star players in the league), is the rigid starter/bench rotation the Nuggets play. Jokic is fairly rarely asked to float bench lineups like other stars are.

Adjusted numbers try to alleviate that concern and still paint Jokic near the very top of the league. Here's shotcharts RAPM for some of the top stars around the league:

Curry +4.91 (1st)
Holiday +4.01 (3rd)
Jokic +3.87 (4th)
Gobert +3.79 (5th)
Garland +3.67 (6th)
Conley +3.46 (7th)
D'Angelo +3.11 (8th)
Giannis +2.94 (11th)
DeRozan +2.75 (14th)
Embiid +2.6 (19th)

That’s just NPI RAPM.

A good RAPM sample with prior years makes more sense and generally never comes out looking ridiculous like that.

I mean you had to take George Hill out of the #2 spot just to make this list look more legitimate.
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#152 » by eminence » Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:01 pm

ty 4191 wrote:
eminence wrote:He's been quite good defensively this season. The only thing 'inflating' his impact (raw numbers, relative to some other star players in the league), is the rigid starter/bench rotation the Nuggets play. Jokic is fairly rarely asked to float bench lineups like other stars are.

Adjusted numbers try to alleviate that concern and still paint Jokic near the very top of the league. Here's shotcharts RAPM for some of the top stars around the league:

Curry +4.91 (1st)
Holiday +4.01 (3rd)
Jokic +3.87 (4th)
Gobert +3.79 (5th)
Garland +3.67 (6th)
Conley +3.46 (7th)
D'Angelo +3.11 (8th)
Giannis +2.94 (11th)
DeRozan +2.75 (14th)
Embiid +2.6 (19th)


Do you have a link to your source, here? I'm really interested and can't find this stuff readily online. Thanks, man.


Sure thing - http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=1683034232

All normal caveats apply, half season sample, not minutes adjusted, yada yada.
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#153 » by eminence » Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:08 pm

ShotCreator wrote:
eminence wrote:He's been quite good defensively this season. The only thing 'inflating' his impact (raw numbers, relative to some other star players in the league), is the rigid starter/bench rotation the Nuggets play. Jokic is fairly rarely asked to float bench lineups like other stars are.

Adjusted numbers try to alleviate that concern and still paint Jokic near the very top of the league. Here's shotcharts RAPM for some of the top stars around the league:

Curry +4.91 (1st)
Holiday +4.01 (3rd)
Jokic +3.87 (4th)
Gobert +3.79 (5th)
Garland +3.67 (6th)
Conley +3.46 (7th)
D'Angelo +3.11 (8th)
Giannis +2.94 (11th)
DeRozan +2.75 (14th)
Embiid +2.6 (19th)

That’s just NPI RAPM.

A good RAPM sample with prior years makes more sense and generally never comes out looking ridiculous like that.

I mean you had to take George Hill out of the #2 spot just to make this list look more legitimate.


Not sure what you're meaning by 'looking ridiculous'. It's just a stat.

I think you'd be surprised by how George Hill comes out looking in larger samples as well (#9 in 3 year, #23 in 5 year, though those are total over those periods, not PI).
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#154 » by kayess » Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:17 am

So earlier in the year his advanced D stats were ridiculous; how have they held up?

The intelligentsia already knows he's no turnstile, because his quick hands, great IQ, and size let him be at elast average on D. But has he surpassed even that and risen to a legitimate definite above average on D?

Anyone care to dissect his performance on that end?
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#155 » by ty 4191 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:13 pm

Jokic last night:
28/21/9 on 60.6 TS%.



For the month of January, 27.1/13.5/8.5 on 68.7 TS (+13 rTS%).
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#156 » by ty 4191 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:23 pm

kayess wrote:So earlier in the year his advanced D stats were ridiculous; how have they held up?

The intelligentsia already knows he's no turnstile, because his quick hands, great IQ, and size let him be at elast average on D. But has he surpassed even that and risen to a legitimate definite above average on D?

Anyone care to dissect his performance on that end?


A little statistical analysis courtesy of myself and a couple other folks...

1st among Centers in stl
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense/?sort=STL&dir=-1&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=C

2nd in Deflections
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/hustle/?sort=DEFLECTIONS&dir=1&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=C

3rd in Box Outs
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/box-outs/?sort=BOX_OUTS&dir=1

4th in Contested shots
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/hustle/?sort=CONTESTED_SHOTS&dir=1

1st in Contested Rebounds in entire NBA

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/rebounding/?sort=REB_CONTEST&dir=1

Nikola Jokic Advanced Stats categories:

Defensive Win Shares / 48 minutes: #1 in the entire league
Defensive Box +-: Tied for #1 in the entire league with Draymond Green
Defensive Rating: #5, behind perennial DPOY candidates like Gobert/Green

BelgradeNugget wrote:
Lalouie wrote:
i think the ONLY real stat that matters with centers is
,,,,does he intimidate. that is, do players look over their shoulder when they're in the paint. this has been so since bill russell and has not changed. it is a result of centers making their presence felt on D. the paint becomes persona non grata for the offense. in order to be a deterent a center has to back it up. jokic is #28 in blocks.


I think you have a point. But then I thought how do you measure intimidation. Some players let guards go to the rim where they try to block their shots. Some players who are not good shot blockers (like Jokic) would try to force guards to take tougher shots like jumpers or floaters instead of letting them shoot at the rim. Anyway if intimidation is not letting opponents shoot at the rim I have one interesting stat:

Joel Embiid allows 5 made shots at the rim as primary defender, while Jokic allows 4.9. So are players more scared of Jokic than Embiid by this definition?

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt6/?CF=FGM_LT_06*GE*3.5&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=C&sort=FGM_LT_06&dir=1

I don't think intimidation works in this era of basketball with all guards shooting floaters. Trae will go into the paint against any Center without fear, and that is the reason IMO why you don't have players averaging more than 3 blocks per game any more.

kcktiny wrote:
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt6/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&CF=FGA_LT_06*GE*250&sort=LT_06_PCT&dir=-1

This shows that of the 14 players in the league to have currently faced on defense 250+ FGAs within 6' of the basket, Jokic has allowed the highest/worst FG% at 62.9% (15% higher/worse than Jarrett Allen who is allowing a 47.7% FG%).

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt10/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&CF=FGA_LT_10*GE*300&sort=LT_10_PCT&dir=-1

And this shows that of the 15 players in the league to have currently faced on defense 300+ FGAs within 10' of the basket, Jokic has allowed the highest/worst FG% at 57.3% (12% higher/worse than Evan Mobley who is allowing a 45.4% FG%).

Denver as a team now allows the 4th highest/worst 2pt FG% in the entire league at 54.7%, and Jokic is on the floor for 3/5 of the team's total minutes played.

These numbers certainly seem to indicate that his shot defense has been poor compared to other big men in the league that have faced a similar high number of FGAs on defense.

So for those who believe that Jokic this season has been a good defender (not just a good or great defensive rebounder but a good shot defender), and quote things like DWS, DBPM, and Defensive Rating, my question is how do you reconcile those calculated numbers with these raw high FG%s allowed?


Good question so I tried to look deeper at this stats

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt6/?CF=FGM_LT_06*GE*3.5&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=C&sort=FREQ_WHOLE_NUM&dir=-1

What I found interesting is the fact that among these centers Jokic has 4th lowest frequency of shots taken against him at the rim. Only Valanciunas, Gobert and Ayton has lowest frequency. So either players are afraid of Jokic under the rim :D like Gobert and Ayton (which is not the case as we all know) or by good positioning he forces them to shoot floaters or jumpers. Players with the highest frequency of shots taken against them at the rim are Embiid, Mobley and Turner. So, either players are not scared of them at all or they are letting opponents to the rim where they challenge their shots. With Mobley and Turner it is probably working but Embiid is second worst in number of made shots against him at the rim after Vucevic. How bad defender is he?

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt6/?CF=FGM_LT_06*GE*3.5&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=C&sort=FGM_LT_06&dir=1

I tried to compare Jokic, Embiid and Gobert here so I find something interesting
45% of shots Embiid defends are at the rim while in Jokic's and Gobert's case it is 37% and 36%. So what is mine conclusion here? Embiid is letting players go to the rim and challenges them there, Jokic is by good positioning forcing them to take tougher shots while opponents are probably scared of Rudy under the rim.
When we expand this to all 2 pt shots we see something interesting - opponents are shooting 55% against Capella, 52% against Embiid, 51% against Jokic, 50% against Turner and 45% against Gobert. By this definition Jokic is as good as Embiid and Turner, Capella is terrible while Gobert is the best.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-2pt/?CF=FG2M*GE*5.5&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=C&sort=FG2_PCT&dir=1

One more interesting fact here

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-2pt/?CF=FG2M*GE*5.5&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=C&sort=FG2A&dir=1

Gobert and Jokic are challenging the most shots by this group of centers - which is good I guess (playing hard, trying), Embiid is challenging 2 shots less while Turner, leader in blocks is challenging 5 less shot then Gobert and Jokic, which means he is only challenging shots at the rim - chasing blocks I guess. Jokic and Gobert are challenging 16.6 and 16.5 2pt shots, against Gobert oponents make 7.6 of them, against Jokic 8.4 - it is 0.8 more made shots or 1.6 pts difference. One is DPOY the other is?

So my answer to your question is simple. FG% at the rim is not the only stat that measures defensive influence of a Center. If you are not great at defending under the rim you can be very good defender by

1. Not allowing opponents to take shots at the rim by forcing them to take floaters and jumpers using good positioning
2. Box-out after the miss to secure rebounds. Rebound the ball to secure possession
3. If you have great hands to be one of the best Centers in steals, deflections and forced turnovers it is very good I guess
4. If all of this is truth then probably all defensive advanced stats, each one of them will show that you are very good defender
5. If each one of defensive advanced stats points a player is very good defender, stop believing your eye test, because you probably don't have enough data to make good conclusion.
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#157 » by Mazter » Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:09 pm

The best part of Jokic's defensive impact is that he has everybody pulling up stats and theories that it's good or bad. That means it's under the radar and that's the best defense you can have. You can hardly prepare or adjust to it, it just happens to you. Before you know it you ended up taking the less efficient shots he wanted you to take without even realising it. I don't think there is data available to assess his defense properly. Eventually his defensive impact this season (whether you find it minimal, average or good) is undeniable.
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#158 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:15 pm

Read on Twitter


I like this quote from Jokic on Gordon. He finally seems to be comfortable in his role lately and figuring things out. Still only shooting like 33-34% from 3, but definitely more confident as a spot up shooter. Overall production has been solid too:

Last 20 games (12-8 record): 15.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3 APG, .8 SPG on 62.5% TS, 117 ORtg, +4.1 average raw +/-
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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#159 » by itsxtray » Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:58 pm

Elgee in collaboration with the nba is dope:

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Re: Nikola Jokic 21-22 Thread 

Post#160 » by kayess » Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:37 am

itsxtray wrote:Elgee in collaboration with the nba is dope:



so happy for him. dope vid.

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