1. James Harden, played the best team ever(-iggy) to a draw, did it again the next year with weaker support, and then had an all-time rs and playoff carry job in 2020 playing great against one of the best defenses ever with injury nuking his co-star and mediocre spacing.
Wierd that he's going to go multiple spots lower than Durant given KD+Curry+Klay+Dray was unable to gain seperation from his team when he had backend of his prime Chris Paul. Also excellent longevity dueling the westbrook-less +9 srs thunder to a draw the first year he had an opportunity to shine a year removed from being the opposing defenses' primary focus on a statistically all-time non-champion.
People have pushed for Barkley, but Harden's just seems like a stronger version. Charles probably shouldn't be voted in when contemporaries that looked similarly capable as #1's like Pippen and Ewing haven't even been nominated
2. Giannis
Strategy aside, I would probably vote Gilmore but as he's getting very little traction and I think barkley''s case doesn't seem that thought out, I'll use my alternate on the current frontrunner.
That said, a mostly era-relative approach probably calls for a sort-of-dominant milkman and I think OaD has made the best case for one:
Spoiler:
One_and_Done wrote:I think it’s almost time to vote for Gilmore.
Unlike fellow MVP and 11 time-star Pettit, Gilmore led his team to a title in a much tougher league. The ABA in 1975 was probably stronger than the NBA. Gilmore has a skill set that would absolutely translate today. When I look at Gilmore, I see a guy who physically resembles a stronger, slightly shorter version of Kareem. His huge arms and relative fluidity would make him an excellent rim-roller, who in a pinch could score in other ways in and around the rim. His short jump shots and hook look surprisingly clean, even if I don’t know how often they went in.
It’s easy to look on youtube and find extensive footage of Artis dunking on Kareem and playing great against the showtime Lakers, on just horrible Chicago teams that clearly didn’t put anything much around him. There’s even a game of the NBA stars against the ABA stars, where Gilmore matches up very well physically with 1972 Wilt. If we were in the top 10 that would mean nothing, but we’re now nominating people who will be 30 or higher all-time.
Statistically, Gilmore compares favourably to say Moses, who is already in.
Moses per 100 from 1979-84: 31.6/18.2/2, 2 blks, 115 Ortg/103 Drtg, 578 TS% Gilmore per 100 from 1975-79: 27.5/17.1/3.4, 3 blks, 113 Ortg/97 Drtg, 601 TS%
Yeh, Moses scores a bit more, because of a play style he wouldn’t be able to replicate today. Otherwise though I’m not seeing much difference between him and Gilmore, except Gilmore’s style would be even more valuable today, and his team mates and situation was in general far worse than Moses. Moses doesn’t even really have Gilmore beat on longevity. Gilmore played 1329 games and was an all-star still at age 36. Moses last all-star season was at age 33, and if we take away his completely irrelevant final 3 seasons he drops from 1455 games down to 1372 games, though I guess Gilmore’s last few seasons weren’t terribly relevant either. Moses has maybe more longevity, depending on how you look at it, because he started earlier. But it’s not enough to matter.
I am more impressed by Gilmore than I am with guys like Ewing or Stockton, the latter wasn’t even a real star. The former seems to be perpetually overrated. Gilmore wishes he had all the help Ewing did.
Am not going to vote him 1st for career concerns, but I should probably also address some questions regarding the guy who so far is looking like an early frontrunner for this thread:
Back to back MVP and BITW candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo
Let's start with the elephant in the room:
Spoiler:
draymondgold wrote:Defense: Was it defense? Probably not. I absolutely agree with your / Sansterre's analysis here, the Bucks team defense was great. They were near their defensive peak in 2019, and that peak was one of the best defensive teams of the century. Some of that credit goes to Giannis. Giannis was their best defensive player near his defensive peak. But if it was all Giannis, why were they a below average defense in the 2018 playoffs? Yes, Giannis absolutely took the jump from 2018 to 2019. But it's worth mentioning there were other factors that led to their defensive improvement in 2019. They switched to a better-fitting, defensive minded coach going from Kidd to Bud. And importantly, they signed Brook Lopez, one of the best rim protectors in the NBA, and a guy who could feasibly play twin towers alongside Giannis without giving anything away on offense (he was also one of the best stretch bigs in the NBA!).
I'm not quite as high on Giannis' defense as some are (some people seem to think he's an excellent perimeter defender and a capable solo rim protector), but still see that mobility and length being a silly advantage as a constant disruptor and something that boosts any kind of defense in most situations.
Just how much credit should Giannis be getting for the Bucks defense?
I'd say alot:
Spoiler:
thepower wrote:I thought is would be interesting to have a season-by-season breakdown to see any development over time, so here it goes.
2018-19 RS Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 105.4 (1494) Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 103.7 (864) Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 107.5 (827) Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 109.2 (770)
2019 PS Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 101.7 (292) Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 103.7 (222) Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 104.7 (146) Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 104.5 (70)
2019-20 RS Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 97.7 (1153) Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 103.6 (764) Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 109.8 (664) Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 106.4 (938)
2020 PS Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 109.7 (180) Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 107.2 (97) Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 110.9 (148) Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 106.7 (60)
2020-21 RS Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 112.2 (1269) Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 108.4 (744) Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 113.0 (633) Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 114.7 (821)
2021 PS Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 105.2 (491) Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 107.0 (309) Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 114.3 (176) Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 113.1 (139)
2021-22 RS Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 111.7 (154) Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 110.7 (2050) Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 118.7 (144) Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 113.8 (1602)
2022 PS Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 101.9 (229) Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 100.2 (219) Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 112.5 (103) Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 108.8 (25)
2022-23 RS Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 108.9 (903) Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 110.1 (714) Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 108.9 (944) Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 117.9 (440)
Obviously with the playoffs there are sample size issues but here's how it looks over 4 playoff runs.
2019-2022 PS Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 104.3 (1192) Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 104.4 (847) Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 110.6 (572) Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 109.2 (294)
And just to also present the numbers for the regular season only.
2018-2023 RS Giannis ON, Lopez ON: 106.1 (4974) Giannis ON, Lopez OFF: 108.0 (5136) Giannis OFF, Lopez ON: 109.9 (3212) Giannis OFF, Lopez OFF: 112.0 (4571)
Giannis' edge is fairly consistent across the RS and perhaps as expected – they are elite when both play, somewhat worse with only Giannis (driven mostly by their insane 2019-20 campaign), once again somewhat worse with only Lopez, and worse yet again without either. However, the playoff picture indicates that Giannis is able to maintain the elite defense when it's only him, whereas the defense falls off pretty dramatically with only Lopez – and the sample size is probably large enough to see it as a meaningful pattern that isn't just noise (although it would be better to look at in greater detail with respect to line-ups used and faced).
Okay, but being "more precise" with Ben's breakdown of 19-20, Bucks drop off by 10 points without Giannis and there's a 7 point difference between how much brook drops off and how much Giannis does. Then from 21-23 the Bucks defense collapses(Context: Giannis coasting). 19-20 they are -6.2. From 21-23 they are -1.3. Collapse.
If we go to the post-season where Giannis turns it up for 21 and 22, here is how the Bucks D performs against every opponent. Injury context for Brooklyn(harden/kyrie injury) and Hawks series(giannis injury, o-rating spikes) so I'll toss it(was -11 and -5 respectively FWIW):
vs Miami: -14 vs Suns: -3 vs Bulls: -17 vs Celtics: -5
Again, massive gap.
Extending our sample with 2019 and 2020(bubble nukes their defense but whatever): vs Pistons-11 vs Celtics-11 vs Raptors-6 (-9 average for 2019 per Ben) vs Magic-4 vs Miami+3(Bubble-shooting, scheme, health, Bam neutralizes Giannis's d?)
Regardless that's a massive improvement over the Bucks regular defense from 2021-2023. With that in mind:
ohayokd wrote:The bucks were a -5.5 and -7.7 regular season defense in 2019 and 2020. The Bucks were -9 with Giannis and -6with Giannis and no Lopez.
...
The Bucks are -1.7 over the last 3 years and -3 in 2023
And? Taking that sample at face-value, Lopez's "value" is -8.5. In 2022 and 2020 there was no drop off, and in 2021 it was -5.8
The 20 Bucks with Lopez were 10.6 points worse when Giannis went off.
TLDR -> Bucks one of the best defenses ever? Giannis on, Lopez off >>> Lopez on, Giannis off -> Bucks a bit above average? Giannis on, Lopez off ~ Lopez on, Giannis off -> The Bucks without Lopez in 19 and 20 were a far better RS defense then the Lopez-anchored Bucks the next three years -> The Bucks return to being one of the best defenses ever in the playoffs on the back of Giannis lineups that hold up even without Brook Lopez
Also consider:
-> With Giannis and without Lopez, the 19/20 Bucks were still the best rim-protecting team in the league -> With Giannis banged up in 20 and 23 and not being able to cover ground like he usually does, their defense went from one of the best ever to negative
Here's a decent breakdown explaining why all this occurs:
Spoiler:
Magic Giannison wrote:Lopez on other hand gets demolished with his drop coverage and sagging vs any good shooting team.
This is also the reason why Lopez was never known as a good defender before he came to the Bucks. Bud and Bucks defensive team use Giannis and Jrue to redirect the offense towards Brook.
Giannis has been elite defensive since he was 21 ( 2016-17 season) and was keeping that even with very weak Bigs at his side ( john Henson, Thon Maker, Miles Plumlee) and was keeping the Bucks defense top of the league ever since.
That doesn't diminishes what Book Lopez does far from it, his importance on the team defense is undeniable but when it comes to individual impact and anchor Giannis is significantly better than him.
There is a reason why many times Lopez gets benched and we play small ball lineup with Giannis at 5 to counter even tho Giannis at center means him risking to foul more.
I quote Prez from the Bucks board showcasing just a small part of GIannis defense.
Among players who’ve contested 150+ FGA within 6 feet, Giannis is #1 in the league, holding opponents to 16.1% (lol) worse shooting at that range. Overall he’s holding opponents to 7.5% worse shooting, which among guys who’ve guarded a similar volume of shots is #1 by a distance. Even when Brook is off the floor (and filtering out any Nwora minutes lol), the Bucks still have the equivalent of the #1 defense in the league.
Giannis is still a menace defensively and the anchor of an absolutely elite team defense.
Basically, Giannis the system of our defense,Brook compliments it, without Giannis there is no system
The Bucks are generally playoff risers. They are generally playoff risers on the back of their defense. That defensive elevation seems to specifically be tied to Giannis and most of their regular-season and playoff separation seems to disappear when Giannis scales down or get hurts.
Thus, I think it would be logical to think that Giannis was the reason those defenses kept improving in the playoffs, thus making Giannis the driver of the Bucks general playoff improvement. With that in mind...
f4p wrote:setting aside that 2012 durant can't be reduced to "no responsibility except scoring", i'm just using the usual resiliency argument of individual play
Individual play according to box-stats that barely capture defense...regarding one of the best defenders ever on a team whose defensive improvement generally outpaces their offensive drop-off.
And you know what the funnt hting is, if we don't fret the delta and just look at the absolute stuff...
Spoiler:
Kawhi 3-year PS Peaks
IA 29.4 pts per 75 (rTS% of 8.4%)
BPM-11.4 Backpicks BPM-7.2
Giannis 3-year PS Peaks
IA 29.1 pts per 75 (rTS% of 3%)
BPM-10.3 Backpicks BPM-6.5
Giannis is nearly a dead-match for, your words not mine, the resliency king despite them pretending giannis and Kawhi are similar defenders.
I also don't know why people keep trying to downplay the raptors. Remember when it was a big deal that steph's warriors could beat a .500 team without him? The Raptors were beating .500 teams in 2018 before upgrading 4 starters including an all-time defensive anchor, clutch KD, and one of the best coaches in the league. They dominated the best team post-asb and beat a sixers side where Butler, leader of 2 final teams in Miami, wasn't even the best player.
They were contenders the next year without Kawhi and even managed to make the playoffs the next time they played in their own staidum when kawhi and gasol had left town. That was the team that added Kawhi, and that's the team you're marking Giannis playing close with everage help as bad.
And whetehr you go by flat or roling, the Bucks usually improve. Their #1 seed losses consist of two to the arguable 2nd best team of the playoffs with Giannis carrying injuries that eventually made him miss games with the Bucks mainly falling apart defensively. The third was to an evetual champion that all by common sense was loaded
fp4 wrote:and yet, all except PER are basically in the same ballpark (and PER's not even that far away).
This is nonsense. Without a relative frame, you cannot claim parity or near-parity. It doesn't matter if the raw gap is .23 or .00001, that number doesn't mean anything in a vacuum.
Furthermore, no one has called for the "complete dismissal" of the box-score. They are calling for its dismissal or at least reasonable curvature when it's being used in situations where it would obviously be biased...like this one
And sure, it was 1 out of 3 or 33%, not 0.
I think this was a pretty strong argument for Giannis and I had already been nudging him a bit higher on my list throughout the project. I think I would have gave him my alternate vote over Wade if I caught this in time. (my #1 vote is for Jokic, dont think ill be changing on that)
