Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #13-#14 Spots

[TrueLAfan]

#13 Kevin Durant 2017. (From before) I get that his team was loaded. I get he got opportunities that other players being mentioned may have not. I get that he “only” played 68 games. But he was the best player on one of the great teams of all time that had *another* great player, and faced off against *another* great player in the finals. And in the postseason in particular, I thought Durant was the best in his group. Kind of a dead heat between this season and 2014—Durant may have been a fraction *better* in 2014. But he got a title in 2017, and for “peak” that barely scrapes that year up for me.

#14 Manu Ginobili 2005. Like I said, I’m swayed by the arguments others have made. I also think the idea that he didn’t play enough minutes is somewhat overblown in a current context. Pop was sort of the Ur-Load Management coach, for better or worse. I get that (a lot of) people don’t like that. But … between 2011 and 2015, Tim Duncan never played more than 2230 regular season minutes. He didn’t average 30 minutes per game in those seasons. But he averaged about 35 mpg in the playoffs on a team that won a title in those five years, made another finals, and was always a threat. In short, it worked. Manu in 2005 played as much as Duncan did in those years in the RS and playoffs. Duncan was still a top 15 player in those years—toward the bottom, but still. And just so we’re clear, I think Manu in 2005 was better than Tim Duncan was in any season after 2010. Sure Duncan had better years earlier, sure he played more minutes—but that doesn’t impact what Manu did. In 2005, I think Duncan was one of the two best players in the league. I think Manu was (much) better than people thought—he was a unicorn, and it takes a while for fans, (most) coaches, and players to catch up to players like that. It’s one of the times where advanced analytics are more useful; in Manu’s case, they emphasize his impact. Which was huge. He was great in the RS and better in the playoffs. He’s my #14.

#15 Chris Paul 2015. This is a tough one for more CP3 is a great leader and (very) complete player. But he’s a player where something always … came up. Often an injury. A poor shooting night or two. He was dominant, so it’s easy to be polarized on this; you either think he’s defined by his inability to get himself/his teams to the very top, or you pay little attention to that and focus on what he did 90% of the time. It’s tough. I may not have had him this high if the Clippers at this time had been a really good team. They were not. They were top heavy—two great players, two good to very good players, two good role players—and nothing after that. Their bench was abysmal. I *do* think that CP3 was a better floor raiser than was considered at the time; again, advanced analytics largely shows this. He needed to be. Yes, he didn’t get them over the top and yes he missed playoff games with an injury. I still have him at 15.

#16 Steve Nash 2005. So 2005 must have been a great year, amIright? Anyway, Nash had no chance against the 2005 Spurs. Just … none. Not that the Suns were bad; they the CP3 Clippers issue with depth. But D’Antoni ran his starters hard this year because he had to, and it’s hard not to appreciate what Nash did given what he was up against in the playoffs and the fact that Shawn Marion—a player I like—basically forgot how to play basketball against San Antonio. Nash’s team strength was getting disparate parts to work; people point at his D, which was indeed average. But I think it also shows just how top level his BB IQ was. It’s not like Nash got faster and quicker on offense. It just seemed that way when you watched how effective and seemingly effortless he was, and I think it dinged perceptions of him on the other end a little bit. He was an average to slightly above average defender at his peak—he compensated for his lack of straight line speed and average side to side quicks with exceptional awareness and anticipation. Those made him OK on D; they made him staggeringly good on offense. And he did that as a floor lifter, which is just huge.

Struggling with leaving out/how to rank AD, Harden, Luka, Embiid, et. al. There’s a lot of fairly equivalent players here. Interesting to see how people are resolving that.

p.s. Doc’s archery diagram says a lot about the value of analytics. Kinda love that. It’s especially relevant when we’re talking about single seasons and even more with postseason play. In an unavoidably smaller sample size, you have to use multiple tools … and you end up weighting them based on subjective bias. That’s not bad—but it’s exactly why threads like this are great. I genuinely like seeing how other come to their conclusions, weigh on/off, BPM and EPM, and raw box data, and mix in their feelings about “gravity” and impact.

[Cavsfansince84]

I struggle to see how AD is getting left off of ballots entirely right now. I think you could even make a good argument for 2018 making a ballot(top 3 mvp/dpoy), great 1st rd series before losing to KD Warriors 4-1. Then in 2020 he's basically the same guy except maybe even better on defense(LA had #3 def) and had close to an atg playoff run on a 16-5 title team. While also doing things like hitting game winning 3's. I think he has to be on a ballot with that kind of two way impact/results. Is 08 KG really above 2020 AD? Because I think 08 KG would already be voted in as well.

[homecourtloss]

I struggle to see how AD is getting left off of ballots entirely right now. I think you could even make a good argument for 2018 making a ballot(top 3 mvp/dpoy), great 1st rd series before losing to KD Warriors 4-1. Then in 2020 he's basically the same guy except maybe even better on defense(LA had #3 def) and had close to an atg playoff run on a 16-5 title team. While also doing things like hitting game winning 3's. I think he has to be on a ballot with that kind of two way impact/results. Is 08 KG really above 2020 AD? Because I think 08 KG would already be voted in as well.

A lot of people have 2020 as AD's peak and 2020 on the regular season leaves a lot to be desired (see non-LeBron minutes).

[Cavsfansince84]

A lot of people have 2020 as AD's peak and 2020 on the regular season leaves a lot to be desired (see non-LeBron minutes).

I think you need to be a bit more specific if that's going to be a legitimate criticism of his rs. You mean rs minutes with AD on and LeBron off? Granted he missed 10 games in the rs but that isn't really significant imo given they finish 3 games above the Clippers for the 1 seed in the west. So if in however many minutes per game that he was on and LeBron was off they didn't play that great I'm not sure if that's too relevant unless we're going to also compare how every other guy getting consideration did while missing the next best player on his team in that season. At the very least I think it has to be compared.

[iggymcfrack]

I struggle to see how AD is getting left off of ballots entirely right now. I think you could even make a good argument for 2018 making a ballot(top 3 mvp/dpoy), great 1st rd series before losing to KD Warriors 4-1. Then in 2020 he's basically the same guy except maybe even better on defense(LA had #3 def) and had close to an atg playoff run on a 16-5 title team. While also doing things like hitting game winning 3's. I think he has to be on a ballot with that kind of two way impact/results. Is 08 KG really above 2020 AD? Because I think 08 KG would already be voted in as well.

2020 AD’s going to be on my ballot, but there’s no way he was as good as 2008 KG. That was the 2nd best season this century by Engelmann and I’d say it’s objectively the best defensive season this century for sure. I am higher on that season than most people though as I thought KG was clearly POY that season and people here were pretty equally split between KG, Bron, and Kobe.

[One_and_Done]

I struggle to see how AD is getting left off of ballots entirely right now. I think you could even make a good argument for 2018 making a ballot(top 3 mvp/dpoy), great 1st rd series before losing to KD Warriors 4-1. Then in 2020 he's basically the same guy except maybe even better on defense(LA had #3 def) and had close to an atg playoff run on a 16-5 title team. While also doing things like hitting game winning 3's. I think he has to be on a ballot with that kind of two way impact/results. Is 08 KG really above 2020 AD? Because I think 08 KG would already be voted in as well.

2020 AD’s going to be on my ballot, but there’s no way he was as good as 2008 KG. That was the 2nd best season this century by Engelmann and I’d say it’s objectively the best defensive season this century for sure. I am higher on that season than most people though as I thought KG was clearly POY that season and people here were pretty equally split between KG, Bron, and Kobe.

It wasn't better than peak Duncan. KG also missed a fair chunks of games that year. I'd still have him as MVP that year (him or CP3/Lebron).

[lessthanjake]

I struggle to see how AD is getting left off of ballots entirely right now. I think you could even make a good argument for 2018 making a ballot(top 3 mvp/dpoy), great 1st rd series before losing to KD Warriors 4-1. Then in 2020 he's basically the same guy except maybe even better on defense(LA had #3 def) and had close to an atg playoff run on a 16-5 title team. While also doing things like hitting game winning 3's. I think he has to be on a ballot with that kind of two way impact/results. Is 08 KG really above 2020 AD? Because I think 08 KG would already be voted in as well.

A lot of people have 2020 as AD's peak and 2020 on the regular season leaves a lot to be desired (see non-LeBron minutes).

If we’re going to look at those minutes, then I think we probably should look more granularly at who else was on the court. Anthony Davis played 677 minutes without LeBron in the regular season. There was only 0 or 1 other Lakers starter on the court with him for 455 of those minutes (67.2% of the non-LeBron minutes). And Anthony Davis was the lone Lakers starter on the floor for 226 of the minutes (33.4% of the non-LeBron minutes). And in only 81 of those minutes was LeBron the only starter off the floor (12.0% of the non-LeBron minutes). So Anthony Davis’s minutes without LeBron were heavily weighted towards being with bench units. Moreover, over 40% of the minutes were with the Lakers having fewer starters on the floor than the other team, compared to just under 24% at a starter advantage. So the Lakers were kind of leaving Anthony Davis out there leading bench units in skewed situations.

If we just filter down to the minutes where there was even just at least one other Lakers starter on the court with Anthony Davis, the Lakers did have a positive net rating, albeit not a massively high one (it was +1.13). So yeah, his Lakers minutes in the regular season went fine when he wasn’t leading a total bench unit, but it still wasn’t amazing or anything. So it’s possible this doesn’t matter all that much. But all of this does seem like relevant context. And it also seems relevant that this issue was not present in the playoffs—where the Lakers had a +5.41 net rating in 203 minutes with Anthony Davis on the court and LeBron off (note: these were still disproportionately bench-player heavy and starter-disadvantage minutes).

For me, Anthony Davis didn’t make my ballot this thread, and honestly I’m not even sure Anthony Davis will make my ballot in the next thread (though he’s definitely a contender for it). But I did think this context was worth mentioning.

[Cavsfansince84]

If we’re going to look at those minutes, then I think we probably should look more granularly at who else was on the court. Anthony Davis played 677 minutes without LeBron in the regular season. There was only 0 or 1 other Lakers starter on the court with him for 455 of those minutes (67.2% of the non-LeBron minutes). And Anthony Davis was the lone Lakers starter on the floor for 226 of the minutes (33.4% of the non-LeBron minutes). And in only 81 of those minutes was LeBron the only starter off the floor (12.0% of the non-LeBron minutes). So Anthony Davis’s minutes without LeBron were heavily weighted towards being with bench units. Moreover, over 40% of the minutes were with the Lakers having fewer starters on the floor than the other team, compared to just under 24% at a starter advantage. So the Lakers were kind of leaving Anthony Davis out there leading bench units in skewed situations.

If we just filter down to the minutes where there was even just at least one other Lakers starter on the court with Anthony Davis, the Lakers did have a positive net rating, albeit not a massively high one (it was +1.13). So yeah, his Lakers minutes in the regular season went fine when he wasn’t leading a total bench unit, but it still wasn’t amazing or anything. So it’s possible this doesn’t matter all that much. But all of this does seem like relevant context.

I'm glad you looked up and posted the context but personally I wouldn't call it all that relevant for downgrading his rs at all. I mean to each their own but especially without direct comparison to any of the 4-5 others getting serious consideration right now. I have AD at #1 on mine because I think he deserves it and then he more than backed it up in the postseason.

[homecourtloss]

A lot of people have 2020 as AD's peak and 2020 on the regular season leaves a lot to be desired (see non-LeBron minutes).

I think you need to be a bit more specific if that's going to be a legitimate criticism of his rs. You mean rs minutes with AD on and LeBron off? Granted he missed 10 games in the rs but that isn't really significant imo given they finish 3 games above the Clippers for the 1 seed in the west. So if in however many minutes per game that he was on and LeBron was off they didn't play that great I'm not sure if that's too relevant unless we're going to also compare how every other guy getting consideration did while missing the next best player on his team in that season. At the very least I think it has to be compared.

2020 AD was -2.4 per 100 possessions without LeBron on court. Every other player who has been voted in so far was a healthy positive encore without the other best player on the team on court, which is what you would expect from a top 20 peak type season. The closest you really get to this is Kobe in 2008 who is +2 without GaSol and something like +3 without Odom in 2009 what was double digits positive without Gasol in 2009. Some of the players who have been voted in were huge positives on court without the other best player on the team on court (e.g., Harden without Paul in 2018 for instance), which is again something you'd expect from an all-time peak. I think the only other one that comes close to this is 2019 Kawhi but that wasn't voted his pea—he was -7 without Danny Green on court in the regular season, which is pretty crazy, though DG wasn’t the Raps’ other best player.

Again, not all the situations are all the same but AD couldn't keep the offense nor the defensive afloat and his non-LeBron minutes and that's a large sample size; when compared this with other players on this list already, it just doesn't look good. Then, on top of that you have all his surrounding and adjacent seasons where his impact signals weren't all that great and certainly not commensurate with the physical gift that he has.

[Cavsfansince84]

2020 AD’s going to be on my ballot, but there’s no way he was as good as 2008 KG. That was the 2nd best season this century by Engelmann and I’d say it’s objectively the best defensive season this century for sure. I am higher on that season than most people though as I thought KG was clearly POY that season and people here were pretty equally split between KG, Bron, and Kobe.

I don't think that coming out 2nd in Engelmann's rapm for the rs = 2nd best season in this century. I get that some people put huge stock in stuff like that(and actually I take it all into account to some degree) but I don't think players go into a season trying to win Engelmann's poy title. The goal is to win the actual nba title and I say this with reference to all seasons, not just 08 KG. I also think KG may get too much credit for some stuff Thibs was doing at the time relevant to team def.

[Doctor MJ]

Vote

1. Kevin Durant 2014 > 2016 > 2017
2. Steve Nash 2005 > 2006 > 2007
3. Manu Ginobili 2005 > 2006 > 2007
4. Draymond Green 2016 > 2017 > 2015

Alright, I'm pulling the trigger and put not one controversial choice in Manu, but two with Draymond.

I've talked quite a lot about how I really don't know where to place Manu because of his minutes, but I did feel a bit of a tipping point in my mind as I consider the next batch of players.

The comparison between Ginobili & Harden is strange in that they've been linked for so long, and yet their signature styles of play evolved quite differently. Harden in his style racked up massive volume and was named MVP, Ginobili in his did not. But while Ginobili's style would yield the same type of innings-eater value of Harden, I do think Ginobili is the player you'd rather have if you have a supporting cast solid enough to expect a star talent to lead them through the playoff gauntlet.

I have similar feelings in the Paul comparison. There's an unpredictability to Manu that I think scales really well to the grandest stage.

Over to Draymond, I have been effectively knocking him for my lack of faith in his ability to carry a team due to his limited scoring, and it's definitely part of what nudges me to Ginobili over him, but at the same time he's got some of that unpredictability factor, and I struggle to be able to advocate for Harden or Paul over him in the playoffs.

On the other hand, I'm agonizing about AD vs Green, which has long been a debate for me. When AD's at his best, he looks better to me than Green, but a) Green does things I can't readily see, and b) I do think Green's more consistent impact within the season matters in a season-based project like this one.

[iggymcfrack]

2020 AD’s going to be on my ballot, but there’s no way he was as good as 2008 KG. That was the 2nd best season this century by Engelmann and I’d say it’s objectively the best defensive season this century for sure. I am higher on that season than most people though as I thought KG was clearly POY that season and people here were pretty equally split between KG, Bron, and Kobe.

I don't think that coming out 2nd in Engelmann's rapm for the rs = 2nd best season in this century. I get that some people put huge stock in stuff like that(and actually I take it all into account to some degree) but I don't think players go into a season trying to win Engelmann's poy title. The goal is to win the actual nba title and I say this with reference to all seasons, not just 08 KG. I also think KG may get too much credit for some stuff Thibs was doing at the time relevant to team def.

I look at it more like he finally found a coach who used him properly as a rim protecting center. I think KG could have had that level of defensive impact his entire prime if he had decent coaches in Minnesota.

FWIW I certainly wouldn’t say KG’s 2008 was actually the 2nd best season this century, but the RAPM numbers definitely show a massive impact. Also, the raw on/off numbers would suggest that KG was just as crucial in the postseason as he was in the regular season if not moreso.

[Cavsfansince84]

I look at it more like he finally found a coach who used him properly as a rim protecting center. I think KG could have had that level of defensive impact his entire prime if he had decent coaches in Minnesota.

FWIW I certainly wouldn’t say KG’s 2008 was actually the 2nd best season this century, but the RAPM numbers definitely show a massive impact. Also, the raw on/off numbers would suggest that KG was just as crucial in the postseason as he was in the regular season if not moreso.

Again, you and I both can view these guys however we like but it's like we've reached this point where on/off and rapm are apparently always the closest thing to which player is better in any comparison and I think that's leaving the door open to a lot of blind spots. Maybe, try thinking outside of that box a little.

[LA Bird]

1. Chris Paul (15)
2. Steve Nash (05)
3. James Harden (19)
4. Manu Ginobili (05)

Hopefully the last time for the Chris Paul copy paste who is well overdue IMO:

Spoiler:

Paul - questionable playoffs health but within surrounding years (13-17), he only had one other postseason injury. Compare that to Giannis' playoffs history and is it really that bad? #1 offense over Curry Warriors, +20 on/off, playoffs win over defending champ Spurs in peak form, came back from injury and would have made conference Finals if Josh Smith hadn't turned into Dirk. Think his offensive package gets underrated because he is sandwiched between two point guards who are literally the two best shooters ever and the GOAT on and off ball players.

Nash - one of the candidates for GOAT offensive peak and the others have already been voted in at #1, #3, #4. He has led the most dominant RS and PO offenses in history which fell apart without him and he is arguably top 2 all time in both passing and shooting. Nash was a weak defender but from a team building perspective, 06 Thomas for Amare kind of showed it can be hidden without too much problem. With almost all of the candidates at this point being heavily offense-first, I don't think Nash is out of place here.

Harden - 2018 is the easier choice from an accomplishment POV but a key part of that success was due to Paul IMO. 2019 to me is when Harden actually hit his individual peak. His iso game peaked literally off the charts (led the league in efficiency on greater volume than the next top 5 COMBINED). And while the Rockets lost to a non-title Warriors one round earlier in one fewer game, I think Harden had a better series against them in 19 than 18. I do have some concerns about his lack of high end postseason offenses on the team level from 15-20 but then again, his main competitor here seems to be KD who, outside of the Warriors, wasn't exactly strong at that himself. IIRC, Westbrook > Durant offensively for the 14/16 playoffs was a pretty popular take on here back then but that seems to have been memory holed after Durant won a ring and Westbrook didn't.

Ginobili - was actually leaning towards Embiid here originally but his total minutes wasn't really any higher than Manu's and nobody is probably voting for him for another 3 rounds so why waste the spot?

Re: RAPM
Pleasantly surprised by this discussion. Reminds me of those old threads from like 2012 when RAPM was a brand new exciting thing.
- Personally not a fan of box +/- stats. Recreating non box score stats from box scores kind of defeats the purpose of capturing non box impact IMO.
- League average adjustment to raw on/off should be more of a thing. Simple enough change which addresses the floor vs ceiling raiser debate.
- PI RAPM can be biased by an outlier prior in year 0 (01 previously, 97 now) that affects all subsequent seasons. The rolling window multi-year approach fixes this problem.

[Djoker]

13. 2014 Kevin Durant
14. 2020 Anthony Davis
15. 2007 Steve Nash
16. 2008 Chris Paul

HM: 2023 Joel Embiid

KD and AD follow from the my last ballot so a thorough rationale for those two votes can be seen in the recap of my last ballot.

Spoiler:

9. 2008 Kobe Bryant
10. 2014 Kevin Durant
11. 2020 Anthony Davis
12. 2011 Dirk Nowitzki

With Kobe it basically comes down to box score dominance and maybe even more importantly empirical data regarding team success. Even though impact metrics don't love him, teams with him on the floor consistently had very good offenses, including post-Shaq, with pretty standard level offensive support. I believe the diversity of his skillset along with excellent playoff resilience makes him better in high leverage situations compared to multiyear RS impact metric show. He has four finals runs (three titles) with individual stats that can rival anyone in this era except Lebron and Jokic.

2001 PS:

29.4 IA Pts/75
+5.8 rTS
8.2 Box OC
8.1 cTOV%
47.1 Load

+13.4 rORtg ON Court

2008 PS:

30.4 IA Pts/75
+4.9 rTS
9.6 Box OC
8.5 cTOV%
49.2 Load

+7.9 rORtg ON Court

2009 PS:

30.6 IA Pts/75
+3.6 rTS
10.3 Box OC
6.5 cTOV%
50.5 Load

+8.4 rORtg ON Court

2010 PS:

30.3 IA Pts/75
+3.3 rTS
10.2 Box OC
8.9 cTOV%
51.8 Load

+8.4 rORtg ON Court

He has a pretty elite profile. High volume, moderately good efficiency, strong creation, low turnovers... Kobe is the best offensive player left in the project. On defense, I'm satisfied with calling him a slight positive.

I honestly feel that Kawhi in 2019 could be a little bit better than Durant ever was. And I'm not saying it based on any metrics. Maybe I'm just enamored how he carried my Raptors team through so much adversity to a championship when in prior years we were the laughingstock of the NBA. But then when I analyze their games, both guys are terrific scorers but I like KD more as a playmaker and while I love young Kawhi defensively, by the time he was on the Raptors, he did not have the same motor on that end with his new found defensive responsibilities. He's always a ticking time bomb health wise too and if Nick Nurse didn't load manage him during the regular season (we could afford to do so) there is no guarantee he could have survived the season. With KD, you just feel a ton more confidence about his durability. Thus I'll take KD over Kawhi by a hair. Without the health concerns, I'd probably take Kawhi by a hair and honestly these guys are two of the toughest for me to order. Basically if I can have a guy just for the playoffs, I'll take Kawhi but if taking the grind of the regular season into context, I'd take KD. Because there aren't that many deep teams and league situations like 2019 where you can load manage your superstar and still enter the playoffs as a high seed. A lot of things had to go right for my team to win a title in 2019 including plenty of luck in the playoffs. In 2017, Kawhi got hurt in the postseason and in 2020, he had his worst playoffs and lost a 3-1 lead. I feel good picking 2019 as his peak even if he was arguably a bit better when on the court in 2017.

The last spot was also tough. It's between Davis and Dirk for me. The thing is... in the 2020 playoffs, AD was shooting so well that he was Dirk-like. 55% from long midrange and 38% from 3pt land is elite shooting. And compared with DIrk, he was also deadly near the basket and more importantly, an elite player on the other end of the court too. I do consider Dirk's intangibles to be better and his shooting gravity cannot be understated but I still feel like 2020 Davis is better than any version of Nowitzki as a basketball player. Certainly not a lot better but he's at least reasonably close offensively while being an elite defensive big man. That combo is tough to beat. He co-led the 2020 Lakers with Lebron so he flies a bit under the radar but he played like a first option, no doubt about it regardless of if you think Lebron was better than him that year. And I don't think his shooting is a total fluke. In the 2023 playoffs, he again shot 59% from long midrange and 33% from 3pt land over 16 games. Ben and Cody discussed on the podcast how AD somehow shoots orders of magnitude better in the PS and that it might be noise but this project is about 1-year peaks. I can't pretend like Davis shot poorly when he in fact shot the lights out. For his entire Lakers' run, the man shot 51% from midrange and 33% from 3pt in the playoffs over 47 games. What I also don't like about Dirk is that he's a 7 footer than isn't a rim protector. Basically you have to pair him up with a great defensive C and that is tough in terms of roster construction. Basically, as good as Dirk is, I do feel like his prototype of player is limiting.





I also considered AD over guys like KD but ultimately I don't think he has the same advantage on defense over those guys that he does on Dirk. And more importantly, those KD's defensive weaknesses are IMO easier to shore up in a team concept compared to DIrk's.

Nash is an offensive dynamo and being unproven in terms of leading a team to a championship is probably the only reason he isn't in the offensive GOAT discussion for me. Just extremely impressive offensive signals from whichever way you slice it... ORtg ON Court, impact data, box score, eye test in terms of superb vision and just destabilizing the defense to an insane degree. His defense is a major weakness but he is a PG and as such he can be hidden easily. The Suns' problems defensively weren't due to Nash's deficiency but that they gave a lion's share of big minutes to the defensive sieve Amare Stoudemire. When push comes to shove, he gets in a hair about CP3 for me. Paul is more well-rounded and has no defensive weaknesses but he doesn't stress defenses the way Nash does. His creation pales in comparison. With Paul, it's also a great struggle picking a year that he puts it all together. I ended up going with 2008. Great RS, great PS, no injuries. Nothing to criticize. Most of his Clippers years were mired by injuries and/or playoff disappointments.

For what it's worth, I think Embiid probably has the highest high end valuation maybe even a top 10 peak if you ignore his PS struggles and just assume perfect health, excuse poor team situation etc. But he probably also has the lowest low end valuation of the guys I seriously considered just because his PS pedigree is so so underwhelming.

Luka/Harden come next, in that order after Embiid. Just not as sold on Ginobili and Draymond as some others are. RAPM doesn't give me the comfort that I think it does others. Despite the deep dive into numbers and correcting for presence of other star teammates with different lineup permutations, I really am just not convinced that those two belong in the conversation with the other names thus far in terms of stature. I don't think it's at all crazy to vote for them but I can't. Not yet...

[iggymcfrack]

1. 2014 Chris Paul
We're now at the point in the project where Chris Paul has a higher xRAPM every season from 2014-2018 than any other player that hasn't been voted in yet has for even one single year. This particular peak year was a healthy playoffs where the Clippers massively outscored 2 of the 3 dominant franchises of the era with CP3 on the floor. As someone else mentioned recently, Paul has pretty much no weaknesses as he's an excellent scorer, an elite passer, and an elite defender. I would have put him above Kobe and Wade as well, but once he's fallen this far, he pretty much has to be the next player selected.

2. 2005 Manu Ginobili
Last player left in the project who was the best player in the league for a given season. Dominates impact stats especially in his peak season of 2005 where he leads the league, but if you're worried about flukes he does it for several more years as well. Tended to actually perform even better when given bigger minutes and I certainly don't think there are any kind of fatigue issues that would keep him from playing a larger role with a coach who wanted that from him. Much like Chris Paul, was an extremely well-balanced player who was elite in pretty much every phase of the game.

3. 2016 Draymond Green
Best on/off of all-time, best plus/minus of all-time, best Game 7 in the history of the NBA Finals. Had maybe the best combination of passing and defense in the history of the NBA. In this particular season, he combined that with a surprisingly reliable 3-point shot and the ability to go get 20 when the team had injuries and needed him to do more. Was actually even more crucial to the Warriors than Steph Curry during the postseason and put up elite net ratings several years in a row when Curry was on the bench.

4. 2020 Anthony Davis
His impact stats may not pop like some of the other players on the list, but they were still very good and the only thing he couldn't do at an elite level was pass and he was still never a bad passer by any means. Most efficient playoff scorer in league history and probably the 2nd best playoff defender of his era behind Draymond. In 2020, he was very close with LeBron for the best player in the league to the point that you could almost make a case for AD as the top guy if you squint.

[Joao Saraiva]

Vote 1:
Dwight Howard 2011
For me he should have been the MVP. One of the best defenders in the modern era, took a team that was much weaker than the other contenders very far and made em the best defensive unit in the league.

11 Howard was a defensive monster and a very good offensive player: as a roll player he was super efficient, he crashed offensive boards hard, great finisher at the rim. Could create, tough it was not ideal, and drew a ton of fouls.

Vote 2:
Kevin Durant 2017
It was seen as an unfair move joining GSW. And it was. And the reason why is... KD was that damn good. They were already great, but with KD they rolled over the entire NBA. Superb scorer, playing within the system (unlike in the next year), his best defensive years too. KD was a machine and I think it's time that he is up in the discussion.



Vote 3:
Steve Nash 2006
One of the best playmakers ever to play the game, ultra efficient shooter and quite honestly he maybe should have shot a lot more. The transformation of the Suns when he got in was stunning and Nash proved value way beyond his stat line. Turned them into the best offense in the league, and with almost the same roster the had before he made everyone a lot better.

Wish Nash got a ring, honestly I feel he's evaluated often as Dirk would be without 11 and it sounds unfair.

Just don't put him further up the list cause Steve was not a good defender, but I think he had the most offensive impact of everyone available.

Vote 4:
AD 2020
High impact on both ends. This is the year cause he was available, cause he shot the lights out in the playoffs and eventually had a long run and won the ring.

[70sFan]

Vote 1:
Dwight Howard 2011
For me he should have been the MVP. One of the best defenders in the modern era, took a team that was much weaker than the other contenders very far and made em the best defensive unit in the league.

11 Howard was a defensive monster and a very good offensive player: as a roll player he was super efficient, he crashed offensive boards hard, great finisher at the rim. Could create, tough it was not ideal, and drew a ton of fouls.

Vote 2:
Kevin Durant 2017
It was seen as an unfair move joining GSW. And it was. And the reason why is... KD was that damn good. They were already great, but with KD they rolled over the entire NBA. Superb scorer, playing within the system (unlike in the next year), his best defensive years too. KD was a machine and I think it's time that he is up in the discussion.

Vote 3:
Kawih Leonard 2019
Superb two way player and took the ring to Toronto. Great shooter, and an important piece of their defense (that was absolutely excelent) while being the focal point on offense, providing high scoring at very high efficiency.

Vote 4:
Steve Nash 2006
One of the best playmakers ever to play the game, ultra efficient shooter and quite honestly he maybe should have shot a lot more. The transformation of the Suns when he got in was stunning and Nash proved value way beyond his stat line. Turned them into the best offense in the league, and with almost the same roster the had before he made everyone a lot better.

Wish Nash got a ring, honestly I feel he's evaluated often as Dirk would be without 11 and it sounds unfair.
Kawhi is already voted in, you have to change your voting.
Just don't put him further up the list cause Steve was not a good defender, but I think he had the most offensive impact of everyone available.

[70sFan]

Vote 1:
Dwight Howard 2011
For me he should have been the MVP. One of the best defenders in the modern era, took a team that was much weaker than the other contenders very far and made em the best defensive unit in the league.

11 Howard was a defensive monster and a very good offensive player: as a roll player he was super efficient, he crashed offensive boards hard, great finisher at the rim. Could create, tough it was not ideal, and drew a ton of fouls.

Vote 2:
Kevin Durant 2017
It was seen as an unfair move joining GSW. And it was. And the reason why is... KD was that damn good. They were already great, but with KD they rolled over the entire NBA. Superb scorer, playing within the system (unlike in the next year), his best defensive years too. KD was a machine and I think it's time that he is up in the discussion.

Vote 3:
Kawih Leonard 2019
Superb two way player and took the ring to Toronto. Great shooter, and an important piece of their defense (that was absolutely excelent) while being the focal point on offense, providing high scoring at very high efficiency.

Vote 4:
Steve Nash 2006
One of the best playmakers ever to play the game, ultra efficient shooter and quite honestly he maybe should have shot a lot more. The transformation of the Suns when he got in was stunning and Nash proved value way beyond his stat line. Turned them into the best offense in the league, and with almost the same roster the had before he made everyone a lot better.

Wish Nash got a ring, honestly I feel he's evaluated often as Dirk would be without 11 and it sounds unfair.
Just don't put him further up the list cause Steve was not a good defender, but I think he had the most offensive impact of everyone available.

Kawhi is already voted in, you have to change your voting.

[Jaivl]

Currently leaning (this is not a vote):

13. 2017 Kevin Durant (> 16 > 14)
14. 2020 Anthony Davis (> 18)
15. 2005 Steve Nash (> 06 > 07)
16. 2015 Chris Paul (> 14 > 08)

I'm not yet sold on Ginóbili this high. I found the plus/minus dissection by LTJ quite enlightning, though, and he surely climbed quite a few spots for me, from 25ish to 20ish.

But at the end of the day, in terms of playoff performance that's still a one year outlier peak not that dissimiliar to Davis', as not really a lead guy on offense, on limited possessions (both by minutes and SA's glacial pace, remember RAPM is per 100 poss. A guy like Nash played about 30% more possessions per game than Manu! -- around 81 vs 62). His defensive signal is also probably inflated a bit by shooting luck, but he is a turnover generating machine (although not quite Ricky Rubio), so I can mostly buy it.

I better see those Terry Porter votes FAST on the next project.

Coming next: Harden, Embiid (don't even know what to do with him yet), Draymond, Doncic, T-Mac, Manu, Westbrook, Howard, more or less in order.