'17-'18 POY discussion

[MisterHibachi]

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[ronnymac2]

Wow, people still believe in HOU. Interesting.

Why the hell wouldn’t we? They’re 6-2 so far this postseason with an average margin of victory of +9. Golden State against worse competition overall is also 6-2 with a +6.5 MOV.

Houston is an unconventional team but they are easily the best team in the postseason so far across both rounds. They’re kicking ass.

They look perfectly beatable when their forwards have their eFG% lowered. GSW's defensive strength is their forwards (Dray, Iggy, Durant, even Klay has height to close out on Ariza/Anderson/Tucker).

HOU is a very good team, but they aren't unconventional. What is so unconventional about them? It's Harden playing pick-n-roll with Capela PLUS shooters everywhere. They might do it better than everybody else, and they might have an All-NBA level PG direct the offense when Harden is on the bench, but they aren't different.

They beat Minny, fine. They'll beat Utah because Rubio isn't there, fine. Then they'll lose to GSW so long as GSW isn't hurt.

Now you say "Well, Ronnymac, you're an idiot because losing to GSW is certainly a reasonable result and it shouldn't detract from the way HOU has played an all-time level all year long." All of that is correct. It sucks because we were all cheated out of a reasonable middle ground of seeing HOU actually go up against another legit team THAT ISN't GSW in Utah. I truly believe Utah would win if they were all healthy. And me saying Utah would beat a team in HOU which I think is a bit overrated isn't a knock on Utah, because I don't think HOU is THAT overrated, and I think Utah is legit.

But HOU's SRS, defeat of a meh Minny team, and defeat of an injured Utah team simply doesn't make me think they went through the fire necessary to get over on arguably the greatest team ever in Golden State. Matchup-wise, it's just too easy for me to see GSW winning. It's a done deal for mine.

But maybe I'm wrong. I already said you'll think I'm an idiot midway through this post, and that it's not a statement from you that I disagree with, but that's how I see HOU right now.

And as I say all this, it's certainly not a way to detract from Harden's POY chances. He's played great. He isn't my POY, but he's certainly a reasonable choice.

[therealbig3]

Re: Kobe vs Harden

As ElGee pointed out in his Kobe article, he was a guy that had a certain reliability in the playoffs...his shot selection could have been better, but he was so good at making bad shots that he was someone that was able to maintain a certain effectiveness in the playoffs, because he was able to hit the shots that the defense couldn't take away.

For that reason, Kobe has been able to lead some of the best playoff offenses ever, even though not quite GOAT-level...if he had better shot selection, Kobe WOULD be on the short list of GOAT offensive players. As is, he's still one of the best to ever do it, just shy of guys like Jordan and LeBron.

Before this year, Harden's playoff offenses:

2013: +3.3 (6 games)
2014: +8.2 (6 games)
2015: +2.0 (17 games)
2016: -10.4 (5 games)
2017: +5.4 (11 games)

So up until this point, he's put up good offenses in the two extended playoff runs he's had (2015 and 2017), but not up to Kobe's level during his best playoff stretch (08-10). Kobe from 08-10:

2008: +7.1 (21 games)
2009: +6.4 (23 games)
2010: +6.9 (23 games)

This year, Harden is leading a +5.6 offense through 8 games so far, and that's for sure going to go down as the level of competition heats up (more games against the Jazz, upcoming series against the Warriors). So even in his best season by far, with a running mate like Chris Paul (which is already WAY more help than Kobe ever had offensively post-Shaq), he's not leading as good of a playoff offense as Kobe did.

So when you move beyond the box scores, which Kobe never compared all that favorably in to other all-time great offensive players, Kobe's skill set and his "diversity" of offense DID allow him to maintain a certain offensive impact to the point where he led some of the best playoff offenses ever, that were clearly superior than anything Harden has done in any sort of extended playoff run.

So yeah, I'm waiting to see more from Harden, but as of right now, I can definitely see a pro-Kobe case.

[NinjaSheppard]

Ricky Rubio should be in the discussion for POTY if he is the difference between a potential 5 game series where one team blows out the other multiple times and the other team winning.

[ronnymac2]

Ricky Rubio should be in the discussion for POTY if he is the difference between a potential 5 game series where one team blows out the other multiple times and the other team winning.

Agreed.

[MisterHibachi]

I was told Harden played defense this year. He's been sought out and attacked relentlessly on the perimeter today and he's given zero effort to contain any drives.

[Krodis]

I was told Harden played defense this year. He's been sought out and attacked relentlessly on the perimeter today and he's given zero effort to contain any drives.

It's certainly not his best performance, though guarding quick guards is certainly not his strength. He's never going to keep up with Mitchell. It might be worth noting that hunting for Harden hasn't actually resulted in good offense for Utah. Quite the opposite.

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[toodles23]

The Rockets are going to win anyway but this was an absolute stinker by Harden. Bricking his jumpers, flailing trying to draw fouls on drives that result in no call and a miss at the hoop, some bad turnovers, and he's been a traffic cone on D (when he even bothers to get back). He's legit not even trying to stay in front of his man, just lazily swiping at the ball as his man goes by and hopes Capella can bail him out with the help.

[GSP]

I was told Harden played defense this year. He's been sought out and attacked relentlessly on the perimeter today and he's given zero effort to contain any drives.

His defense has been horrible all game. Its the same story its always been. The only aspect of defense u can accept Harden to consistently provide is post defense

[GSP]

The top 2 Dpoy guys this season have both gotten strangled by their matchup so far. Horford on Joel and Capella on Rudy

[GSP]

Rudy "im the best rim protector and paint general in the league"

Capella "lol nope"

Joel "i can cover defense on the paint and perimeter and no one can stop me in he post"

Al "lol nope"

[dhsilv2]

Ricky Rubio should be in the discussion for POTY if he is the difference between a potential 5 game series where one team blows out the other multiple times and the other team winning.

Agreed.

and I thought I was a rubio fan....wow

[K_chile22]

I was told Harden played defense this year. He's been sought out and attacked relentlessly on the perimeter today and he's given zero effort to contain any drives.

He has played defense this season and pretty much every playoff game thus far, he was awesome in the first half of game 3. But today he was really bad, at a lot of things. Looked disengaged, but Chris Paul finally decided to show up and they didn't need harden to play well after the first quarter, thankfully

[HeartBreakKid]

James > Harden has nothing to do with "Harden not needing big games to win". LBJ put up a big game in game 2 while the Raptors were getting wrecked. LBJ can simply play at a level that James Harden has not proven to ever play at before. So to answer dhv's question, yes, there is plenty of evidence that LBJ is better than Harden. Basketball reference shows that LBJ has better post season stats than Harden this year, the year, before, the year before that and so on.

James Harden is the MVP and had a better regular season - he has not had a better post season nor played at the same level. That isn't the same thing as saying James Harden is playing below part, he has met my expectations - that doesn't mean that he isn't clearly worse than LBJ at this point.

I was told Harden played defense this year. He's been sought out and attacked relentlessly on the perimeter today and he's given zero effort to contain any drives.

He has played defense this season and pretty much every playoff game thus far, he was awesome in the first half of game 3. But today he was really bad, at a lot of things. Looked disengaged, but Chris Paul finally decided to show up and they didn't need harden to play well after the first quarter, thankfully

His defense is greatly overrated simply because he wasn't a total hack for some games. The guy can't get easily beaten in the paint by 6'10 garbage men, and all of a sudden he's a decent defender. James Harden has the exact weaknesses on defense that he has always had.

[dhsilv2]

The Rockets are going to win anyway but this was an absolute stinker by Harden. Bricking his jumpers, flailing trying to draw fouls on drives that result in no call and a miss at the hoop, some bad turnovers, and he's been a traffic cone on D (when he even bothers to get back). He's legit not even trying to stay in front of his man, just lazily swiping at the ball as his man goes by and hopes Capella can bail him out with the help.

Not his best work, yet he lead the team at +16 on the court. The shooting is part of his game and why he's a guy who had huge games and bad games, I don't think a poor shooting night as a problem for him or the rockets. Now the 8 turnovers is pretty awful.

[dhsilv2]

James > Harden has nothing to do with "Harden not needing big games to win". LBJ put up a big game in game 2 while the Raptors were getting wrecked. LBJ can simply play at a level that James Harden has not proven to ever play at before. So to answer dhv's question, yes, there is plenty of evidence that LBJ is better than Harden. Basketball reference shows that LBJ has better post season stats than Harden this year, the year, before, the year before that and so on.

James Harden is the MVP and had a better regular season - he has not had a better post season nor played at the same level. That isn't the same thing as saying James Harden is playing below part, he has met my expectations - that doesn't mean that he isn't clearly worse than LBJ at this point.

I was told Harden played defense this year. He's been sought out and attacked relentlessly on the perimeter today and he's given zero effort to contain any drives.

He has played defense this season and pretty much every playoff game thus far, he was awesome in the first half of game 3. But today he was really bad, at a lot of things. Looked disengaged, but Chris Paul finally decided to show up and they didn't need harden to play well after the first quarter, thankfully

His defense is greatly overrated simply because he wasn't a total hack for some games. The guy can't get easily beaten in the paint by 6'10 garbage men, and all of a sudden he's a decent defender. James Harden has the exact weaknesses on defense that he has always had.

James and Harden are playing different teams and we all know that players have variance in their game results. That does not indicate clearly that james has been better in the playoffs. That is the problem with making definitive statements off of small sample sizes. More over their teams are on completely different levels.

[HeartBreakKid]

James > Harden has nothing to do with "Harden not needing big games to win". LBJ put up a big game in game 2 while the Raptors were getting wrecked. LBJ can simply play at a level that James Harden has not proven to ever play at before. So to answer dhv's question, yes, there is plenty of evidence that LBJ is better than Harden. Basketball reference shows that LBJ has better post season stats than Harden this year, the year, before, the year before that and so on.

James Harden is the MVP and had a better regular season - he has not had a better post season nor played at the same level. That isn't the same thing as saying James Harden is playing below part, he has met my expectations - that doesn't mean that he isn't clearly worse than LBJ at this point.

He has played defense this season and pretty much every playoff game thus far, he was awesome in the first half of game 3. But today he was really bad, at a lot of things. Looked disengaged, but Chris Paul finally decided to show up and they didn't need harden to play well after the first quarter, thankfully

His defense is greatly overrated simply because he wasn't a total hack for some games. The guy can't get easily beaten in the paint by 6'10 garbage men, and all of a sudden he's a decent defender. James Harden has the exact weaknesses on defense that he has always had.

James and Harden are playing different teams and we all know that players have variance in their game results. That does not indicate clearly that james has been better in the playoffs. That is the problem with making definitive statements off of small sample sizes. More over their teams are on completely different levels.

What do you consider a small sample size? When will the sample size not become small?

[dhsilv2]

James > Harden has nothing to do with "Harden not needing big games to win". LBJ put up a big game in game 2 while the Raptors were getting wrecked. LBJ can simply play at a level that James Harden has not proven to ever play at before. So to answer dhv's question, yes, there is plenty of evidence that LBJ is better than Harden. Basketball reference shows that LBJ has better post season stats than Harden this year, the year, before, the year before that and so on.

James Harden is the MVP and had a better regular season - he has not had a better post season nor played at the same level. That isn't the same thing as saying James Harden is playing below part, he has met my expectations - that doesn't mean that he isn't clearly worse than LBJ at this point.



His defense is greatly overrated simply because he wasn't a total hack for some games. The guy can't get easily beaten in the paint by 6'10 garbage men, and all of a sudden he's a decent defender. James Harden has the exact weaknesses on defense that he has always had.

James and Harden are playing different teams and we all know that players have variance in their game results. That does not indicate clearly that james has been better in the playoffs. That is the problem with making definitive statements off of small sample sizes. More over their teams are on completely different levels.

What do you consider a small sample size? When will the sample size not become small?

I'm honestly not sure when it's big enough if you're not playing the same teams at all. This is why I am always skeptical of using playoff stats side by side with players and get frustrated with people putting so much weight on the playoffs.

I think the better question is how big a gap is needed before a small sample size can tell us something, in this case who is better. Given both players are playing better in the playoffs than regular season I don't see enough data to say Lebron is clearly better.

Now objectively, I think Lebron's having a wonderful playoffs and I think on face value it is better than harden's, but harden and the rockets are on cruise control...and harden's still putting out huge stats. If you're going to judge these two on the playoffs almost entirely (because again they weren't close in the regular season) that's fine, but Lebron's been forced to will his team to wins. Harden is in cruise till they face the warriors.

[iggymcfrack]

I don’t see how you have LeBron anything but #1 right now. He hasn’t had a single bad game all playoffs. If you had your choice between him and Harden for the rest of the playoffs, you’d be crazy to take Harden. Now if Harden has a great series against Golden State and they win the title, it could still easily flip back, but as of RIGHT NOW, there’s no question LeBron is the player of the year.

[Dr Spaceman]

Wow, people still believe in HOU. Interesting.

Why the hell wouldn’t we? They’re 6-2 so far this postseason with an average margin of victory of +9. Golden State against worse competition overall is also 6-2 with a +6.5 MOV.

Houston is an unconventional team but they are easily the best team in the postseason so far across both rounds. They’re kicking ass.

They look perfectly beatable when their forwards have their eFG% lowered. GSW's defensive strength is their forwards (Dray, Iggy, Durant, even Klay has height to close out on Ariza/Anderson/Tucker).

HOU is a very good team, but they aren't unconventional. What is so unconventional about them? It's Harden playing pick-n-roll with Capela PLUS shooters everywhere. They might do it better than everybody else, and they might have an All-NBA level PG direct the offense when Harden is on the bench, but they aren't different.

They beat Minny, fine. They'll beat Utah because Rubio isn't there, fine. Then they'll lose to GSW so long as GSW isn't hurt.

Now you say "Well, Ronnymac, you're an idiot because losing to GSW is certainly a reasonable result and it shouldn't detract from the way HOU has played an all-time level all year long." All of that is correct. It sucks because we were all cheated out of a reasonable middle ground of seeing HOU actually go up against another legit team THAT ISN't GSW in Utah. I truly believe Utah would win if they were all healthy. And me saying Utah would beat a team in HOU which I think is a bit overrated isn't a knock on Utah, because I don't think HOU is THAT overrated, and I think Utah is legit.

But HOU's SRS, defeat of a meh Minny team, and defeat of an injured Utah team simply doesn't make me think they went through the fire necessary to get over on arguably the greatest team ever in Golden State. Matchup-wise, it's just too easy for me to see GSW winning. It's a done deal for mine.

But maybe I'm wrong. I already said you'll think I'm an idiot midway through this post, and that it's not a statement from you that I disagree with, but that's how I see HOU right now.

And as I say all this, it's certainly not a way to detract from Harden's POY chances. He's played great. He isn't my POY, but he's certainly a reasonable choice.

Well I’d certainly never call you an idiot. I’ve enjoyed your posts too much over the years.

The idea though that Ricky Rubio is the difference between a Utah win and what is happening now is... well, a rather fringe opinion, to put it mildly.

I do appreciate the idea that closing out hard on Ariza and Tucker can limit Houston’s offensive ceiling, but frankly Utah put together one of the best stretches of defensive basketball we’ve seen in the last two decades with Gobert healthy and they don’t seem to be able to pull off this strategy. The truth is you have to help from somewhere. You just have to.

Golden State is a different style of defense than Utah. Rather than relying on one super paint protector and a bunch of aggressive ball-hawks, they rely on floor coverage and switching. That indeed is a difficult matchup for Houston. If they play Draymond at Center there’s no obvious guy to try to pick on besides Curry. But if Golden State commits to Dray at Center and switches every pick and roll, boy oh boy is Capela going to feast. I don’t think people realize quite how amazing he’s been this postseason. PER of 27.5, finishing 74.2% at the rim and he currently leads the entire playoffs in ORB% at damn near 15%. He very well could be the breaking point for GSW.

I’m not even a Houston fan in particular, but I’ll also add: Harden is a different player this year than he was in years past. His patience and his willingness and ability to put a gameplan into action has been pretty mind-bending. Over the course of the Utah series he and MDA have not only been able to counter everything Utah has tried, but they’ve smashed those buttons so hard they make Utah look foolish for even trying. D’Antoni is truly a genius. It’s not so much that his strategy is super complex or that he’s a super chess player or anything, it’s jsut that he’s able to distill the game down to a few simple bite-sized adjustments that are relatively easy for players to actually put into use out there on the floor.

So for example, if it comes through on film that Golden State is going to commit hard to closing out on the forwards, well then I expect Harden to murder their interior with a series of floaters and lobs to Capela just as he did in game 3 against Utah, knowing that the help wont actually fully commit to a bump.

I’m gonna be completely honest here. I don’t understand the reverence for Golden State other than people just assuming that past performance will be replicated. Yeah they crushed everyone’s would last year. This year, though, there has been no indication, statistically or otherwise, that they have been the best team. They have more talent than anyone else, but at no point this season have they played like the squad they were last year. I don’t assume they can just flip the switch, because this is only year 2 of their current squad, and they don’t have LeBron. Lebron is just way better than anyone on that roster, and I think there’s a gap. He can do things Durant and Curry can only dream of. I’m comfortable saying he can be lazy and then flip the switch. I don’t feel the same about Curry and Durant, who actually have more of a history of struggling in deep playoff series than the reverse.