Retro Player of the Year Project

[Doctor MJ]

So people are aware, I'll probably make a thread for the '12-13 POY discussion & voters signups once the first round is done.

[Doctor MJ]

Curry is making serious noise.

1. LeBron
2. Durant
3. CP3

These are the only ones set in stone as of right now for me. For 4 and 5, you have Wade, Melo, Harden, and Curry imo. Westbrook and Kobe are unfortunately eliminated imo because of their injuries. I'd probably go with Wade and Melo, personally. I would have had Harden over Melo strictly based on regular season, but he's really struggled badly so far, while Melo has led his team to a dominating advantage while going up against a comparable defense.

Curry falls just short, it seems.

For me, as long as Miami continues to dominate with Wade showing flashes of dominance, that'll probably be enough to separate him from the other top 4 contenders. I'd lean toward Melo with the 5 spot.

Harden I love and I'm not as down on in the playoffs as others, but I've had Melo ahead of him in the wake of New York's superb ending and he's not making the choice more difficult in the playoffs. So I agree, Curry does seem to be the guy who might make a serious run at that 5 spot the way he's playing right now.

[Mutnt]

This might be a little premature but I'm just curious Doc, and others as well, does CP3 fall out of the Top 3 if the Clippers fail to get by Memphis, assuming he's puts up his series averages along the way. Evidently, Melo is a plausible candidate who could potentially overtake Paul if NYK makes a decent playoff run, maybe to the ECF. Curry possibly, if Golden State upsets the Nuggets and Curry has a decent series vs. the Spurs (all this w/o David Lee). Duncan or Parker perhaps? Wade hasn't really convinced me with his play of late. Obviously, Kobe, Westbrook won't be making any ground in the playoffs. Lopez, Harden and Griffin (assuming if the Clippers will be eliminated by the Grizz, hypothetically) likewise, all out in the 1st round.

[An Unbiased Fan]

For me, as long as Miami continues to dominate with Wade showing flashes of dominance, that'll probably be enough to separate him from the other top 4 contenders. I'd lean toward Melo with the 5 spot.

I just don't get the Wade love. He just hasn't been as impactful as most of the Top 5 candidates this season. What has Wade done to deserve Top 5 status? He's barely Top 10.

I mean Miami is up 3-0 easily in the 1st round, and Wade is putting up this in the series - 13.7 ppg on 45% TS.

Meanwhile, Melo is carrying NY against a stronger foe, and putting up 32 ppg on 56% TS.

Throughout the season, Wade can just stink it up whenever he wants, and Lebron will cover things, which is something no other Top 5 candidate can say.

[Doctor MJ]

For me, as long as Miami continues to dominate with Wade showing flashes of dominance, that'll probably be enough to separate him from the other top 4 contenders. I'd lean toward Melo with the 5 spot.

I just don't get the Wade love. He just hasn't been as impactful as most of the Top 5 candidates this season. What has Wade done to deserve Top 5 status? He's barely Top 10.

I mean Miami is up 3-0 easily in the 1st round, and Wade is putting up this in the series - 13.7 ppg on 45% TS.

Meanwhile, Melo is carrying NY against a stronger foe, and putting up 32 ppg on 56% TS.

Throughout the season, Wade can just stink it up whenever he wants, and Lebron will cover things, which is something no other Top 5 candidate can say.

I'll have to judge it as it all plays out. I'm not saying Wade's an absolute lock.

As far as Wade having the advantage other Top 5 candidates don't, well yeah, he also has to sacrifice his personal number like they don't. Wade's obviously in a position where if we didn't know his capabilities we wouldn't assume that he was capable of being a Top 3 player in the league. But we do know, and more than that, we know that it took some serious chemistry building for the team to get to this point with Wade having to make a ton of sacrifice along the way. I credit him for the sacrifice and his crucial place on an absolutely dominant team.

In general, I find it rather comical how quick people are to talk about Wade getting senile. Wade's numbers going down is exactly what we all thought would happen when LeBron joined the team. How can it happen now and people insist on attributing it to something other than LeBron joining the team? If Wade's numbers in general were absolutely wretched I'd get it, but Wade's PER was 24 this year and only 3 players had PERs north of 25. It's basically a given that Wade's PER would surpass all but those 3 players if LeBron wasn't on the same team, and it's just as much of a given that none of these other guys could jump in in Wade's stead and make Miami better this year. It does not seem at all strange to me therefore to rate Wade above those other guys.

[shawngoat23]

Can I vote for the 2012-13 RPOY (presumably after the Finals are over)?

I was on the original panel, as well as for a lot of the ATL threads, but I missed last year because I stopped frequenting RealGM for a while.

[An Unbiased Fan]

For me, as long as Miami continues to dominate with Wade showing flashes of dominance, that'll probably be enough to separate him from the other top 4 contenders. I'd lean toward Melo with the 5 spot.

I just don't get the Wade love. He just hasn't been as impactful as most of the Top 5 candidates this season. What has Wade done to deserve Top 5 status? He's barely Top 10.

I mean Miami is up 3-0 easily in the 1st round, and Wade is putting up this in the series - 13.7 ppg on 45% TS.

Meanwhile, Melo is carrying NY against a stronger foe, and putting up 32 ppg on 56% TS.

Throughout the season, Wade can just stink it up whenever he wants, and Lebron will cover things, which is something no other Top 5 candidate can say.

I'll have to judge it as it all plays out. I'm not saying Wade's an absolute lock.

As far as Wade having the advantage other Top 5 candidates don't, well yeah, he also has to sacrifice his personal number like they don't. Wade's obviously in a position where if we didn't know his capabilities we wouldn't assume that he was capable of being a Top 3 player in the league. But we do know, and more than that, we know that it took some serious chemistry building for the team to get to this point with Wade having to make a ton of sacrifice along the way. I credit him for the sacrifice and his crucial place on an absolutely dominant team.

In general, I find it rather comical how quick people are to talk about Wade getting senile. Wade's numbers going down is exactly what we all thought would happen when LeBron joined the team. How can it happen now and people insist on attributing it to something other than LeBron joining the team? If Wade's numbers in general were absolutely wretched I'd get it, but Wade's PER was 24 this year and only 3 players had PERs north of 25. It's basically a given that Wade's PER would surpass all but those 3 players if LeBron wasn't on the same team, and it's just as much of a given that none of these other guys could jump in in Wade's stead and make Miami better this year. It does not seem at all strange to me therefore to rate Wade above those other guys.

I do get that Wade has sacrificed his stats for the good of the team to a degree, but again, that's a luxury no other Top 5 candidate could afford. Wade is allowed to pass much of the burden onto Lebron, while other players carry their team's fate on their backs.

Does Wade have Top 5 "potential", of course. I'm sure if Lebron was playing for NY, and it was just Wade/Bosh that Miami would still be contenders, and Wade would be a MVP candidate like in his 2009 days. But that's the problem, his role isn't as impactful anymore, and his play doesn't warrant Top 5 nomination.

If Adrian Peterson went to play with Manning in Denver, and Peyton had a MVP year, while AP ran for 1000 years on a great 5.5 ypc....would AP be a Top 5 player? No. Sure, talentwise he's still a Top 5 caliber player, but impact-wise, he's clearly wouldn't be.

[Doctor MJ]

You aren't factoring in the level of team success tho. Miami at this point looks like a team for the ages. It's not at all strange to have 2 top 5 MVP candidates if the team is good enough. To see a situation like that where the #2 is known to be a top 5 level talent and is still putting up per minute numbers in the ballpark of the top 5...I don't know how it comes as any surprise that Wade might get seen as top 5 here.

Of course all of this depends on the competition. I'd have no problem putting Wade 3rd or 8th if that's what the completion warranted. As it stands there was a pretty clear top 3 and then a gap.

[Doctor MJ]

This might be a little premature but I'm just curious Doc, and others as well, does CP3 fall out of the Top 3 if the Clippers fail to get by Memphis, assuming he's puts up his series averages along the way. Evidently, Melo is a plausible candidate who could potentially overtake Paul if NYK makes a decent playoff run, maybe to the ECF. Curry possibly, if Golden State upsets the Nuggets and Curry has a decent series vs. the Spurs (all this w/o David Lee). Duncan or Parker perhaps? Wade hasn't really convinced me with his play of late. Obviously, Kobe, Westbrook won't be making any ground in the playoffs. Lopez, Harden and Griffin (assuming if the Clippers will be eliminated by the Grizz, hypothetically) likewise, all out in the 1st round.

Nothing is clinched but Paul won't fall just because someone else plays more rounds.

[therealbig3]

Who really cares if Wade is playing poorly against Milwaukee? They're destroying them and are up 3-0 right now. He's barely trying. The important thing is how he plays against the better teams as Miami gets more tested, like Chicago in the next round, Knicks or Pacers in the round after that, and whoever comes out of the West, assuming Miami wins in each of these rounds.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Who really cares if Wade is playing poorly against Milwaukee? They're destroying them and are up 3-0 right now. He's barely trying. The important thing is how he plays against the better teams as Miami gets more tested, like Chicago in the next round, Knicks or Pacers in the round after that, and whoever comes out of the West, assuming Miami wins in each of these rounds.

Because this is about the Top players of the year, and play/impact actually matters. The fact that Wade can, as you say, "barely try" while Lebron carries the burden....is kind of the point.

[Doctor MJ]

Who really cares if Wade is playing poorly against Milwaukee? They're destroying them and are up 3-0 right now. He's barely trying. The important thing is how he plays against the better teams as Miami gets more tested, like Chicago in the next round, Knicks or Pacers in the round after that, and whoever comes out of the West, assuming Miami wins in each of these rounds.

Because this is about the Top players of the year, and play/impact actually matters. The fact that Wade can, as you say, "barely try" while Lebron carries the burden....is kind of the point.

Since when do you credit LeBron with carrying a team while scoring 22 points?

The fact that 1 seed can coast past as 8 seed is not a reason to knock its stars. If Wade seems to be irrelevant through the real competition that will be another story

[An Unbiased Fan]

You aren't factoring in the level of team success tho. Miami at this point looks like a team for the ages. It's not at all strange to have 2 top 5 MVP candidates if the team is good enough. To see a situation like that where the #2 is known to be a top 5 level talent and is still putting up per minute numbers in the ballpark of the top 5...I don't know how it comes as any surprise that Wade might get seen as top 5 here.

Of course all of this depends on the competition. I'd have no problem putting Wade 3rd or 8th if that's what the completion warranted. As it stands there was a pretty clear top 3 and then a gap.

I just think they are too many guys who were more impactful this season. I also don't consider the Heat as a team of ages with a 7.03 SRS, nor do i think Wade will be close to a Top 5 MVP candidate.

A good comparison to 13 Wade would be 00 Kobe. I voted Kobe #5 that year, but that was in large part because of his PS, TD's absence, and KG's flameout in the PS. So far in these playoffs, Wade has looked bad, while a guy like Melo has looked great. Other guys like Harden, TD are doing more too.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Who really cares if Wade is playing poorly against Milwaukee? They're destroying them and are up 3-0 right now. He's barely trying. The important thing is how he plays against the better teams as Miami gets more tested, like Chicago in the next round, Knicks or Pacers in the round after that, and whoever comes out of the West, assuming Miami wins in each of these rounds.

Because this is about the Top players of the year, and play/impact actually matters. The fact that Wade can, as you say, "barely try" while Lebron carries the burden....is kind of the point.

Since when do you credit LeBron with carrying a team while scoring 22 points?

The fact that 1 seed can coast past as 8 seed is not a reason to knock its stars. If Wade seems to be irrelevant through the real competition that will be another story

Lebron is not just the #1 scorer, but also the #1 defender, and #1 playmaker. He has a much bigger burden to carry than Wade. As do other Top 5 candidates.

[Doctor MJ]

You aren't factoring in the level of team success tho. Miami at this point looks like a team for the ages. It's not at all strange to have 2 top 5 MVP candidates if the team is good enough. To see a situation like that where the #2 is known to be a top 5 level talent and is still putting up per minute numbers in the ballpark of the top 5...I don't know how it comes as any surprise that Wade might get seen as top 5 here.

Of course all of this depends on the competition. I'd have no problem putting Wade 3rd or 8th if that's what the completion warranted. As it stands there was a pretty clear top 3 and then a gap.

I just think they are too many guys who were more impactful this season. I also don't consider the Heat as a team of ages with a 7.03 SRS, nor do i think Wade will be close to a Top 5 MVP candidate.

A good comparison to 13 Wade would be 00 Kobe. I voted Kobe #5 that year, but that was in large part because of his PS, TD's absence, and KG's flameout in the PS. So far in these playoffs, Wade has looked bad, while a guy like Melo has looked great. Other guys like Harden, TD are doing more too.

I think you've just touched on a legit reason to disagree. If you believe that you can assess the Heat accurately based on their SRS, then the team is not a team for the ages, and it's pretty easy to see why you wouldn't think Wade was a top 5 guy.

If you really subscribe to SRS as the measurement for the Heat though, then presumably you think that a Heat vs Clippers series is virtually a tossup. Do you?

Short of that, remember that maxing out the SRS is not a goal any team has. The Heat didn't try and fail to get a better SRS. They very clearly did all sorts of strategic coasting throughout the year. It makes no sense to hold that coasting against the team when it didn't hurt them.

To the other point I wouldn't agree with your comparison with Kobe. Kobe was clearly maxing out his game on a team maxing out their regular season performance. They weren't even as good as their record when push came to shove in the playoffs - where most of the time champions improve. So if you want to say that Wade only exerted enough to roughly match '00 Kobe, I get that, but again I'd emphasize the crucial distinction that Wade only got to cruise because of how well things were going, and it took until this 3rd year of sacrifice and chemistry building led by Wade himself in order for this to happen. To turn around and use that against Wade is to fail to understand what it is these players actually are there to do.

[Doctor MJ]

Since when do you credit LeBron with carrying a team while scoring 22 points?

The fact that 1 seed can coast past as 8 seed is not a reason to knock its stars. If Wade seems to be irrelevant through the real competition that will be another story

Lebron is not just the #1 scorer, but also the #1 defender, and #1 playmaker. He has a much bigger burden to carry than Wade. As do other Top 5 candidates.

Why are you repeating stuff everyone knew before they came in here?

I repeat: LeBron is coasting too! Clearly you see how misguided it would be to hold that against LeBron right now, but for some reason, you refuse to apply the same principles to others on his team.

Bottom line: The Milwaukee series is not worth analyzing unless something actually goes seriously wrong. You don't judge a team or its players based on what they do when they know they can coast their way to victory. You judge them based on their toughest challenges.

[An Unbiased Fan]

You aren't factoring in the level of team success tho. Miami at this point looks like a team for the ages. It's not at all strange to have 2 top 5 MVP candidates if the team is good enough. To see a situation like that where the #2 is known to be a top 5 level talent and is still putting up per minute numbers in the ballpark of the top 5...I don't know how it comes as any surprise that Wade might get seen as top 5 here.

Of course all of this depends on the competition. I'd have no problem putting Wade 3rd or 8th if that's what the completion warranted. As it stands there was a pretty clear top 3 and then a gap.

I just think they are too many guys who were more impactful this season. I also don't consider the Heat as a team of ages with a 7.03 SRS, nor do i think Wade will be close to a Top 5 MVP candidate.

A good comparison to 13 Wade would be 00 Kobe. I voted Kobe #5 that year, but that was in large part because of his PS, TD's absence, and KG's flameout in the PS. So far in these playoffs, Wade has looked bad, while a guy like Melo has looked great. Other guys like Harden, TD are doing more too.

I think you've just touched on a legit reason to disagree. If you believe that you can assess the Heat accurately based on their SRS, then the team is not a team for the ages, and it's pretty easy to see why you wouldn't think Wade was a top 5 guy.

If you really subscribe to SRS as the measurement for the Heat though, then presumably you think that a Heat vs Clippers series is virtually a tossup. Do you?

Short of that, remember that maxing out the SRS is not a goal any team has. The Heat didn't try and fail to get a better SRS. They very clearly did all sorts of strategic coasting throughout the year. It makes no sense to hold that coasting against the team when it didn't hurt them.

Well I don't evaluate a team based on SRS alone, I was merely dismissing the notion that the Heat are a team for the ages. The Heat won 62 games, which is very good, but not all-time level great. They didn't lead the NBA in ORtg(#2), and their defense was nothing special(#9).

You're really going to have to explain how they are a team for the ages, because I don't see it.

To the other point I wouldn't agree with your comparison with Kobe. Kobe was clearly maxing out his game on a team maxing out their regular season performance. They weren't even as good as their record when push came to shove in the playoffs - where most of the time champions improve. So if you want to say that Wade only exerted enough to roughly match '00 Kobe, I get that, but again I'd emphasize the crucial distinction that Wade only got to cruise because of how well things were going, and it took until this 3rd year of sacrifice and chemistry building led by Wade himself in order for this to happen. To turn around and use that against Wade is to fail to understand what it is these players actually are there to do.

How were the 2000 Lakers not as good as their record indicated? 8.41 SRS, 67 wins, #4 ORtg/#1 DRtg. I would take the 2000 Lakers over the 2013 Heat.

And I'm not sure where you going with this "Kobe was playing at his max level, but Wade was coasting" theory. Wade just wasn't as impactful, which is what RPOY is about. If Wade coasted and didn't put forth a Top 5 effort, then that's on him.

Kobe was #8 in RPOY in 2000 at 23/6/5 with All-D 1st level defense.

Wade in 2013 is 21/5/5, with decent defense.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Since when do you credit LeBron with carrying a team while scoring 22 points?

The fact that 1 seed can coast past as 8 seed is not a reason to knock its stars. If Wade seems to be irrelevant through the real competition that will be another story

Lebron is not just the #1 scorer, but also the #1 defender, and #1 playmaker. He has a much bigger burden to carry than Wade. As do other Top 5 candidates.

Why are you repeating stuff everyone knew before they came in here?

I repeat: LeBron is coasting too! Clearly you see how misguided it would be to hold that against LeBron right now, but for some reason, you refuse to apply the same principles to others on his team.

Bottom line: The Milwaukee series is not worth analyzing unless something actually goes seriously wrong. You don't judge a team or its players based on what they do when they know they can coast their way to victory. You judge them based on their toughest challenges.

Huh? Whether Lebron is coasting or not, he's still the best player this year based on actual impact. In 2010 I killed him for coasting(or whatever he was doing) in that Boston series.

When did "You judge them based on their toughest challenges" become the criteria, because it sure wasn't the way we were doing things previously. And really, what challenges has Wade had to face this year since he can just coast and allow Lebron to carry things.

You're basically saying we should ignore Wade's lesser impact because he 'coasted", and to wait for tougher challenges. I'm sorry, but guys like Melo have been facing tough challenges all season long.

[therealbig3]

If Wade plays great against the Heat's opponents during the next 3 rounds, and plays an instrumental role as the 2nd option in whatever they accomplish this season, I really don't see how 3 games against Milwaukee in which his team didn't even really need him can be held against him. Not to mention that since it was such a small sample size, his terrible shooting in game 3 is what drags his averages down in that series. He was pretty good in the first 2 games.

If the Heat needed Wade to play and play well, and he didn't, then sure, hold that against him. The Heat probably didn't even need LeBron in this series either, and he actually played a pretty pedestrian series himself. It would be silly to hold this series against him at the end of the year, so it's silly to hold it against Wade.

I don't really care about how a player performs against a bad team that his team destroys, whether he dominates or is a non-factor, and I don't see why anyone else would either. It doesn't tell us anything.

[Doctor MJ]

Well I don't evaluate a team based on SRS alone, I was merely dismissing the notion that the Heat are a team for the ages. The Heat won 62 games, which is very good, but not all-time level great. They didn't lead the NBA in ORtg(#2), and their defense was nothing special(#9).

You're really going to have to explain how they are a team for the ages, because I don't see it.

Well first off, they didn't win 62 games. They won 66 in a conference where no one else was within 10 games of them. There's only 1 team in history that surpassed that mark by more than 3 games. On all that alone it would be foolish to rate another team as clearly more impressive than them based on 3 games.

Then of course there's the fact that the team clearly picked it up as the season went on, and are currently 35-1 in their past 36 games when LeBron is in. It's regular season of course (mostly). If the Heat struggle in the post-season it means very little. If the Heat cruise through the playoffs though it would be absurd to look at that incredible record as not having been a much more clear sign of how good the team really was than overall record.

And if they struggle, expect me to adjust my opinions to be more like yours. My question to you is what exactly will it take for you to see the Heat head and shoulders above the rest of the league, and therefore to recognize it being silly to quibble over coasting here and there?

As I say this, I see places where you might rebut. Try not to jump at every wrinkle as we all understand that LeBron is the alpha. My point here is that if the Heat end up lapping the field, which they really weren't able to come even close to before, it's going to be silly to try to look for reasons to knock the players who worked to make this all look so easy.

How were the 2000 Lakers not as good as their record indicated? 8.41 SRS, 67 wins, #4 ORtg/#1 DRtg. I would take the 2000 Lakers over the 2013 Heat.

And I'm not sure where you going with this "Kobe was playing at his max level, but Wade was coasting" theory. Wade just wasn't as impactful, which is what RPOY is about. If Wade coasted and didn't put forth a Top 5 effort, then that's on him.

Kobe was #8 in RPOY in 2000 at 23/6/5 with All-D 1st level defense.

Wade in 2013 is 21/5/5, with decent defense.

The '00 Lakers were by far the best team in the regular season and yet were incredibly lucky to even get to the finals. They simply did not look like an overwhelming powerhouse when it really mattered.

By contrast, the '01 Lakers were a clear example of the type of unfocused coasting that we often see from teams that have been there before. It's not always a given that a team can just turn it on when it matters, let alone do so like the '01 Lakers did, but it's still quite safe to say that what the '01 Lakers did in the playoffs was far beyond the capabilities of the '00 Lakers, in no small part because Kobe transformed into a clear top tier superstar that year.