dhsilv2 wrote:Dr Spaceman wrote:dhsilv2 wrote:
Yes and no. Agree with there are two types of bad shooting Harden, but I think both are adding value. The jumper harden however requires Paul to do something, not so much on that play but on other plays. I think of it like boxing. Normally a jab is really about control and setting people up, but for Harden 3's are both his jabs AND his knock out blows. Even on a bad shooting night teams have to stay on him, overly focus on where he is because he can just go nuts in a second. This creates opportunities for others, but sometimes the rockets other players don't realize they need to do something. That's when you get those games where nothing happens. Tonight (only saw the first half) I saw a lot of great examples of Paul playing off the Harden "jabs" if you will. I'm likely sounding like a crazy person with the boxing reference but it's the best way I can describe it.
Oh the rockets are going to just blow a game massively in the series at least one. They just need 4 wins and imo they have the firepower to have 4 great shooting nights and to be honest I'm not sure I don't like the rockets in a shootout where both teams can't miss against even the warriors. I might be under rating the warrior's defense this year, but they don't seem like the defensive team they've been in the past.
Right now, gun to my head, I’m choosing Houston as the favorite in this series. As the reg season went along, they sold me more and more, and honestly they’ve both demonstrated a higher average level of play and a higher ceiling than Golden State in the postseason (albeit with a lower floor as well). But looking at the range of outcomes here, I honestly just see more scenarios where the Rockets pull out the win, especially with HCA (which is far, FAR more crucial than I think anyone here is admitting-this honestly could decide the series). I pick Houston at home in game 7.
The Warriors just don’t look like the same team to me. They lack the energy and composure to hold leads and their defense has really fallen off. There’s no telling what we’re going to see from Curry but many people I trust (Especially Nate Duncan) are saying he’s being held back by the knee injury/conditioning. It certainly was a factor in 2016.
Golden State allowed like an 18-2 run in the 4th quarter against NOP even with the starters in the game. Even when they push through to dominant leads you never quite feel like it’s safe, whereas Houston just stomps on throats.
I don’t want this to all be about how bad GS looks to me, because Houston is amazing. To date truly one of the most impressive teams I’ve seen in the past decade. I’ve written so much about them I don’t want to rehash here- but I really, truly feel that if you isolated the 2018 season by itself, you’d have to conclude Houston was better. There’s the chance of course that GS could get back to 2017 level, but 2 things: 1. We haven’t seen it at any point this year or even an indication of it and 2. They really weren’t even tested last year in the way they will be by Houston. Cleveland was good, but the Warriors played 3 cupcake series before that where they barely broke a sweat.
We’ll see.
Agree with you completely here. The Jazz imo are a significantly better team than the pelicans, which I know is likely controversial. The rockets were great despite playing (because Gobert was playing and even without rubio) the best defense if not by far the best defense.
That said I see some conditioning issues with Curry, but unlike in 16 he seems like he can plant and elevate pretty well. As long as he can do that, he can beat a team with his jumper. Against the cavs that year his cuts and stops were very "soft" and he lost his timing and spacing. I'm optimistic that he'll play well. I really want to see a classic conference finals, but I'm fully expecting 6-7 games and over half to be blow outs.
You guys have been watching a different series than me apparently.
Warriors' defense has been really good. From a statistical standpoint, they have the best DRtg of any team in the playoffs. From an eye test standpoint, they are connected, active, and effective. The Spurs were limited offensively, but the Pelicans were really, really good. The Warriors' opponents in the first two rounds were a contrast in styles -- slow-tempo San Antonio and then New Orleans, who was the fastest pace team in the league -- and the Warriors defense played very well against both. Their switching, doubling, and rebounding (1st in DReb% among playoff teams) was very good. The run by the Pelicans was concerning, but that was more about the Warriors' turnovers and poor offensive execution leading to transition opportunities for the Pels. Even with the comeback, the game wasn't really in doubt. Kerr left Iguodala on the bench for the entire fourth quarter.
Curry shot great in his first game back but looked limited in his movement and timing in games 3 and 4. However, he looked much better in game 5. He had bounce and swagger and clearly felt much better. His timing is still not there, which was most evident to me with his ballhandling and passing, but it's coming. He was a much more effective player in game 5. He's active and effective on defense. Even with the residual limitations from his injury and the rust, he's averaging 24.5 pts, 5.3 reb, 3.5 ast, and 2.0 stl on 65.0 TS%. We'll see if he wears down like he did in 2016, but so far, I'm encouraged by what I see.
The Pelicans are really good. They're not deep enough to hang with Golden State, but they're talented, they're good at both ends, and they're competitors. Unlike, say, Portland, Toronto, or Minnesota, they didn't shrink in the moment. They played really well in game 2, and they forced the Warriors to raise their game to beat them. In game 3, the Warriors brought their B game and got thumped. There's a lot to like about this Pelicans team. The Jazz are good too, but don't sell New Orleans short.
Houston wanted the Warriors, and they got the Warriors. Houston's really good, but now we get to see if they're playoff good.
If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention.
