2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[Peregrine01]

I think all of us have players we wonder about in the pace and space era which is as big of a change since anything post-Shot Clock.

The player I'm most curious about right now is Pau. He was very valuable in his era but I could see him being substantially more valuable now given the revival of the center as passing position model.

How good would Hakeem be in today's era? Would he still be able to get maintain most of his enormous defensive value? Would he be able to get close to the offensive impact of Embiid et al?

I don't see any world in which Hakeem could get the offensive value of Embiid. He was neither the shooter or foul drawer that Embiid was. And his passing was weaker as well.

That isn't a knock on Hakeem BTW just a credit to how good Joel is.

How do the two compare in playoff settings?

I’m starting to hold the view that the regular season doesn’t really matter much at all anymore.

[Colbinii]

How good would Hakeem be in today's era? Would he still be able to get maintain most of his enormous defensive value? Would he be able to get close to the offensive impact of Embiid et al?

I don't see any world in which Hakeem could get the offensive value of Embiid. He was neither the shooter or foul drawer that Embiid was. And his passing was weaker as well.

That isn't a knock on Hakeem BTW just a credit to how good Joel is.

How do the two compare in playoff settings?

I’m starting to hold the view that the regular season doesn’t really matter much at all anymore.

I think Embiid has been hurt much of his prime in the post-season.

[sp6r=underrated]

How good would Hakeem be in today's era? Would he still be able to get maintain most of his enormous defensive value? Would he be able to get close to the offensive impact of Embiid et al?

I don't see any world in which Hakeem could get the offensive value of Embiid. He was neither the shooter or foul drawer that Embiid was. And his passing was weaker as well.

That isn't a knock on Hakeem BTW just a credit to how good Joel is.

How do the two compare in playoff settings?

I’m starting to hold the view that the regular season doesn’t really matter much at all anymore.

I fully agree Hakeem has been a far better playoff performer. But I need an enormous sample size to dismiss a player based on the post-season. And Embiid hasn't hit that level.

[falcolombardi]

How good would Hakeem be in today's era? Would he still be able to get maintain most of his enormous defensive value? Would he be able to get close to the offensive impact of Embiid et al?

I don't see any world in which Hakeem could get the offensive value of Embiid. He was neither the shooter or foul drawer that Embiid was. And his passing was weaker as well.

That isn't a knock on Hakeem BTW just a credit to how good Joel is.

How do the two compare in playoff settings?

I’m starting to hold the view that the regular season doesn’t really matter much at all anymore.

You say this but the top regular season performers largely align with the best post season performers (jokic, giannis, lebron, curry, luka)

The exceptions where a player has significant drop offs or post season improvement are noteworthy but they are not the rule, and those exceptioms have always existed (think reggie vs robinson in the 90's or butler vs embiid today)

[Peregrine01]

I don't see any world in which Hakeem could get the offensive value of Embiid. He was neither the shooter or foul drawer that Embiid was. And his passing was weaker as well.

That isn't a knock on Hakeem BTW just a credit to how good Joel is.

How do the two compare in playoff settings?

I’m starting to hold the view that the regular season doesn’t really matter much at all anymore.

I think Embiid has been hurt much of his prime in the post-season.

Health is as much a part of a player that height and athleticism is.

[jalengreen]

How do the two compare in playoff settings?

I’m starting to hold the view that the regular season doesn’t really matter much at all anymore.

I think Embiid has been hurt much of his prime in the post-season.

Health is as much a part of a player that height and athleticism is.

And the most difficult to evaluate of the three

[Colbinii]

How do the two compare in playoff settings?

I’m starting to hold the view that the regular season doesn’t really matter much at all anymore.

I think Embiid has been hurt much of his prime in the post-season.

Health is as much a part of a player that height and athleticism is.

Sure is!

[Doctor MJ]

I don't see any world in which Hakeem could get the offensive value of Embiid. He was neither the shooter or foul drawer that Embiid was. And his passing was weaker as well.

That isn't a knock on Hakeem BTW just a credit to how good Joel is.

How do the two compare in playoff settings?

I’m starting to hold the view that the regular season doesn’t really matter much at all anymore.

I fully agree Hakeem has been a far better playoff performer. But I need an enormous sample size to dismiss a player based on the post-season. And Embiid hasn't hit that level.

So, injury is a reason to say that we don't necessarily know what Embiid can do in the playoffs, but when you simply talk about "sample size", this is interesting to consider.

How many minutes does a guy need to play in the playoffs typically before we feel we have a sense for knowing "what he actually is" in the playoffs?

I don't have an answer, but I would tend to try to think about in terms of a normal regular season. As in:

If you believe you have enough information to judge a player's quality of play in a normal regular season - and if you like to talk about MVP & All-NBA, I'd say you do - then that should probably be enough generally to say something about the playoffs.

In an 82 game season I tend to use 2000 minutes as the round number I look at. I believe the lowest minutes played by an MVP comes from Bill Walton where he only played 58 games and that number was 1929.

At present, Embiid has a total playoff minutes played of 1835, so we'd expect to Embiid to break that 2000 minute market after this post-season.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Embiid now has the highest points per 75 average in league history even if you inflation adjust past seasons to 2024's offensive rating.

Embiid is at 34.8 pts per 75. Under the same measurement, 2019 Harden would be next at 37.8.

[sp6r=underrated]

I know it wasn't 1-1 move but replacing Bud with Doc is insane even if you're a Bud skeptic.

[SportsGuru08]

I know it wasn't 1-1 move but replacing Bud with Doc is insane even if you're a Bud skeptic.

At this point I have no idea why anyone would want Rivers. He has a decade-long track record of blowing series. 2008 was a fluke of all flukes and even in that season, they needed 7 games to put away a team with a 37-45 record

[Peregrine01]

I don't see any world in which Hakeem could get the offensive value of Embiid. He was neither the shooter or foul drawer that Embiid was. And his passing was weaker as well.

That isn't a knock on Hakeem BTW just a credit to how good Joel is.

How do the two compare in playoff settings?

I’m starting to hold the view that the regular season doesn’t really matter much at all anymore.

You say this but the top regular season performers largely align with the best post season performers (jokic, giannis, lebron, curry, luka)

The exceptions where a player has significant drop offs or post season improvement are noteworthy but they are not the rule, and those exceptioms have always existed (think reggie vs robinson in the 90's or butler vs embiid today)

Why use regular season performance as a predictor of playoff performance when you can just look at playoff performance?

I think the divergence in the officiating between the regular season and playoffs has continually widened over time. The rock fight that we saw in Heat-Nuggets game 5 looks like a completely different sport altogether compared to last night's Spurs/Sixers game.

[MartinToVaught]

Read on Twitter

This stat is pretty insane considering how bad we were for most of the first decade at Staples.

[MartinToVaught]

I know it wasn't 1-1 move but replacing Bud with Doc is insane even if you're a Bud skeptic.

At this point I have no idea why anyone would want Rivers. He has a decade-long track record of blowing series. 2008 was a fluke of all flukes and even in that season, they needed 7 games to put away a team with a 37-45 record

Most blown series leads, most game 7 losses, most home game 7 losses, and worst record in potential closeout games of any coach ever (a staggering 17-32). That is Doc's legacy, and it's insane that teams keep giving him chances. He's been coaching the same way for almost a quarter-century and still refuses to accept criticism or blame. You're not going to be the team that fixes him.

[LukaTheGOAT]

The Clippers are 20-4 over their last 24 games.

In this stretch:

James Harden:
▪️18.4 PPG
▪️9.8 APG
▪️4.6 RPG
▪️64.7% TS

Kawhi Leonard:
▪️25.4 PPG
▪️4.3 APG
▪️6.4 RPG
▪️67.7% TS

Paul George:
▪️23.5 PPG
▪️3.2 APG
▪️5.3 RPG
▪️63.0% TS

[70sFan]

Wait, did Bucks seriously signed Doc, or is it only a rumor? If so, I think we can disqualify Bucks from the title odds unfortunately...

[The-Power]

Why use regular season performance as a predictor of playoff performance when you can just look at playoff performance?

Sample size and the uneven nature of the playoffs (you sometimes only play one or even in the best case only very few teams).

I think the divergence in the officiating between the regular season and playoffs has continually widened over time.

If you think that applies to Embiid in particular, how do you explain that his FTr is virtually the same in the playoffs compared to the RS?

Being skeptical of Embiid's playoff performances is fair game. But that doesn't mean we can or should dismiss what he's doing in the RS as essentially meaningless. Remember when a common sentiment was that you cannot win it all with Jokic as your Center? That narrative went away quickly. Don't be surprised if Embiid has a strong playoff run this year and watch this narrative shift as well.

[AdagioPace]

Read on Twitter

This stat is pretty insane considering how bad we were for most of the first decade at Staples.

I'm sorry for the Clippers because they have been stuck in a range of decent-excellent for a long time, without winning a ship. Lakers had higher highs and deplorable lows.

[70sFan]

How do the two compare in playoff settings?

I’m starting to hold the view that the regular season doesn’t really matter much at all anymore.

I fully agree Hakeem has been a far better playoff performer. But I need an enormous sample size to dismiss a player based on the post-season. And Embiid hasn't hit that level.

So, injury is a reason to say that we don't necessarily know what Embiid can do in the playoffs, but when you simply talk about "sample size", this is interesting to consider.

How many minutes does a guy need to play in the playoffs typically before we feel we have a sense for knowing "what he actually is" in the playoffs?

I don't have an answer, but I would tend to try to think about in terms of a normal regular season. As in:

If you believe you have enough information to judge a player's quality of play in a normal regular season - and if you like to talk about MVP & All-NBA, I'd say you do - then that should probably be enough generally to say something about the playoffs.

In an 82 game season I tend to use 2000 minutes as the round number I look at. I believe the lowest minutes played by an MVP comes from Bill Walton where he only played 58 games and that number was 1929.

At present, Embiid has a total playoff minutes played of 1835, so we'd expect to Embiid to break that 2000 minute market after this post-season.

It is an interesting point of discussion regarding playoff sample of size.

For one-two seasons sample, I think the numbers start to stabilize around 35-40 games but here we're talking about the longer period (6 seasons for Embiid). 2000 minutes is around 50-55 playoff games (36-40 mpg), I think that's fair starting point. Though to be fair, Embiid already played 53 postseason games in his career, so I don't think we can ignore the signal we already have.

Embiid looks like a very improved version of himself this year, so I expect better numbers than usual. The problem with him is that he already clearly improved last season, but he finished with another disappointing postseason run. Health is a concern, so is his inability to produce his great scoring numbers in the playoffs. I hope to see healthy Embiid dominating the East this year, just to face Jokic and the Nuggets at the end of the year

[Peregrine01]

Why use regular season performance as a predictor of playoff performance when you can just look at playoff performance?

Sample size and the uneven nature of the playoffs (you sometimes only play one or even in the best case only very few teams).

I think the divergence in the officiating between the regular season and playoffs has continually widened over time.

If you think that applies to Embiid in particular, how do you explain that his FTr is virtually the same in the playoffs compared to the RS?

Being skeptical of Embiid's playoff performances is fair game. But that doesn't mean we can or should dismiss what he's doing in the RS as essentially meaningless. Remember when a common sentiment was that you cannot win it all with Jokic as your Center? That narrative went away quickly. Don't be surprised if Embiid has a strong playoff run this year and watch this narrative shift as well.

Having the same free throw rate against a defense that’s allowed to be much more physical is a very different thing.