2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

[ShotCreator]

Over the past three years the Nuggets are 11-16 (-3.4) without Jokic, which makes the idea that they are some horrific team without him pretty untenable. A roster is not bad just because it is starter heavy (see also the 1997 Hawks, the 1997 Jazz, the 2013 Pacers…).

That’s about a 50 loss team that is bad on both ends.

How is that anything but an objectively bad team?

That’s much closer to horrific than even average.

What am I reading here?

They wouldn’t be bad defensively.

And 30+ wins out of a supporting cast when you just completely remove their best player without any sort of replacement is not a bad supporting cast.

Well we're in a current league where OKC and Boston is absolutely gonna make the playoffs with HCA in the first round without their best players.

I believe Porzingis was Boston's best player last year, and they won several playoff rounds without him.

The average title team is actually gonna be average to low seed playoff team without their best player. If not better. The 2019 Raptors were 17-4 without Kawhi Leonard. The 2021 Bucks were 2-0 without Giannis in the 2021 playoffs.

And Denver has not had a good defense without Jokic in years now. They're specifically bad even with him right now and he's probably their 2nd or third best defender at worst.

They are flagrantly not a championship level cast this year. And with Murray's terrible performance, weren't close last year either. Their best bet is Gordon actually earning his reputation on defense because he's been flat out bad this year on that end. And Murray taking a big step up defensively like in 2023.

Basically, playing at a much better level than -3.4. That's never been an acceptable level for a title team. And definitely isn't in the modern era of the past 10 or so years.

[Peregrine01]

That’s about a 50 loss team that is bad on both ends.

How is that anything but an objectively bad team?

That’s much closer to horrific than even average.

What am I reading here?

They wouldn’t be bad defensively.

And 30+ wins out of a supporting cast when you just completely remove their best player without any sort of replacement is not a bad supporting cast.

"Wouldn't be bad defensively"

Nuggets are giving up a 116 DRTG without Jokic this season and gave up 118 and 117 without him in each of the last two seasons...do people even look up facts before making claims now?

[AEnigma]

They have a 115 defensive rating in the 27 games he has missed over the past three seasons, which is roughly league average. Wonder why that was not a fact worth looking up.

[Special_Puppy]

They have a 115 defensive rating in the 27 games he has missed over the past three seasons, which is roughly league average. Wonder why that was not a fact worth looking up.

Do you personally think the Nuggets would have a league average defense if Jokic missed the entire season this year? It’s 24th currently so you’d have to think that Jokic is a fairly sizable minus defensively in order to get them to being league average without Jokic.

[Peregrine01]

Let's ignore the far larger sample size in favor of the smaller sample size that still says that the Nuggets are a middling defense without Jokic. For some, it appears that the hater glasses are simply just too dark.

[AEnigma]

Let's ignore the far larger sample size in favor of the smaller sample size that still says that the Nuggets are a middling defense without Jokic. For some, it appears that the hater glasses are simply just too dark.

“Let’s pretend the bench is the same as the starters, because that is obviously how we assess teams.”

[Peregrine01]

The bench also plays against the bench. The Nuggets have also staggered their rotation a lot more this year. There is literally nothing to indicate that the Nuggets are anything more than a middling defense without Jokic.

The original post implied that the Nuggets are bad defensively because of Jokic when in fact the Nuggets are better on defense either when he’s on the court or playing the full game over the last 3 seasons. Not much better obviously but better.

[AEnigma]

They have a 115 defensive rating in the 27 games he has missed over the past three seasons, which is roughly league average. Wonder why that was not a fact worth looking up.

Do you personally think the Nuggets would have a league average defense if Jokic missed the entire season this year? It’s 24th currently so you’d have to think that Jokic is a fairly sizable minus defensively in order to get them to being league average without Jokic.

No, which is why that was never something I claimed, nor do I think analysing splits in that way is worth much when what matters is overall performance. But if someone is going to talk about fact-checking, funny to see the type of facts they are willing to ignore.

[Texas Chuck]

Not only are they better with them than not, but his offense is what allowed them to play some of their better defenders who we watch struggle away from him(Brown, Bruce, KCP).

Too many times people want to isolate defense from offense as if one has nothing to do with the other.

[parsnips33]

Taylor Jenkins thing is very strange right?

I never liked the guy, but has anything like this happened so late in the season for a team that is in the playoff picture?

[parsnips33]

Not only are they better with them than not, but his offense is what allowed them to play some of their better defenders who we watch struggle away from him(Brown, Bruce, KCP).

Too many times people want to isolate defense from offense as if one has nothing to do with the other.

1000%

Same dynamic you see with the Curry Warriors

[Texas Chuck]

Same dynamic you see with the Curry Warriors

And what we saw with my Dirk Mavs once they finally got the formula right. I mean look at the starting lineup for the MAvs only title team:

Chandler
DeShawn
Marion
Kidd

And yes Marion and Kidd had some really good offensive years in years past, and Kidd still a savant even at that point, that's about as weak an offensive supporting cast as a champion has ever had. But it worked because Dirk was so special, it allowed those lineups.

Just like Gobert allowed Utah to win 50 games playing just atrocious defenders and having one of the best offenses in the league and him making them just good enough defensively to survive. When we evaluate his offense, we can't ignore his defense either.

Its team construction 101 stuff

[Dr Positivity]

The Grizzlies may see Iisalo as the Nurse and Jenkins as the Casey and want to give themselves a shot this year, they have a compelling anti-OKC case with the size advantage.

[tone wone]

The Bucks had prime George Hill.

Porzingis was Bostons best player.

[falcolombardi]

The Grizzlies may see Iisalo as the Nurse and Jenkins as the Casey and want to give themselves a shot this year, they have a compelling anti-OKC case with the size advantage.

.

Size advantage when bane and morant are hard out lenghted by okc backcourt?

Edey is taller than everyone but that is about it

[AEnigma]

The Grizzlies may see Iisalo as the Nurse and Jenkins as the Casey and want to give themselves a shot this year, they have a compelling anti-OKC case with the size advantage.

.
Size advantage when bane and morant are hard out lenghted by okc backcourt?

Edey is taller than everyone but that is about it

Your starting frontcourt is also taller.

[Special_Puppy]

Is there any way of identifying "bad matchups" that adds predictive value after controlling for SRS?

[OhayoKD]

2019 Jokic was awesome in the playoffs I thought. The Bubble was actually a step down from that imo.

Don't know about that. Clippers series was the best playmaking and defensive performance (latter by far) of his career imo. Granted it was an extremely favorable matchup.

[LukaTheGOAT]

2019 Jokic was awesome in the playoffs I thought. The Bubble was actually a step down from that imo.

2019 Jokic was better in the PS with the caveat being that he had more favorable matchups in 19 vs. 2020. 2020 had much tougher defenses and better teams in general I would argue.

[Dr Positivity]

The Grizzlies may see Iisalo as the Nurse and Jenkins as the Casey and want to give themselves a shot this year, they have a compelling anti-OKC case with the size advantage.

.

Size advantage when bane and morant are hard out lenghted by okc backcourt?

Edey is taller than everyone but that is about it

Being able to play Holmgren and Hartenstein frontcourt helps protect against it, but I’d still say JJJ and Edey double center frontcourt as having a better chance of throwing Okc off than some of the other alternatives like Lakers.