Retro POY '08-09

[ElGee]

Elgee, I just did the first 6 minutes of the 1rst quarter and I already found more missed rotations than you did the whole game. I know nobody would go through and read through the whole game, but read through these first 6 minutes, there's some interesting stuff.

Some Thoughts:

- Varejao is clearly the MVP of this team based on this sample of 6 minutes. I am in no way implying that he's anywhere close to as important as Lebron for the Cavaliers, just that he is for these 6 mins. I am not implying that you can extrapolate these 6 mins to the whole season. But that you can extrapolate the fact that Varejao has no box score impact. Nearly 90% of his game is not measured by the traditional box score. And some of it is not even measured by advanced metrics. For example, at one point he sets the perfect trap, exceptional rotation, Hedo has to throw a wild pass, that somehow finds it's mark. That play could've resulted in a layup, but that doesn't make Varejao's play any less important.

- Dwight Howard is pathetic on defense in this quarter. Which brings me to a more general point, a few months ago I was trying to run some regressions to figure out a correlation between box score stats and wins, and I kept getting a negative coefficient for blocks. It didn't make any sense to me. But not it's something I might look deeper into. In general, for every contest or blocked shot, he's missing about 10 rotations. And it's not because of something he's doing particularly wrong. Roaming in general introduces a whole lot of confusion.

- Lebron - I mean, it's fairly clear to me that Lebron guarding Alston is a horrible horrible strategy. It leaves them with a lot less size in the paint. Quite a few offensive rebounds could've been prevented, had Lebron been on Tukogulu. At the same time, he's doing a horrible job on Alston. Most of the time, he doesn't even know where Alston is. The problem is, I'm not sure I can blame Lebron for this. The defensive scheme is clearly designed for him to roam, and for the Cavaliers to gamble on Alston missing a lot of shots and making bad decisions. So I can't really penalize Lebron for his coach's shortcomings.

On to the play by play:

11:40 1st – Dwight Howard – Missed Rotation
First play of the game, Howard is roaming around, causes Z to get open, Rashard scrambles to cover Z, leaving Varejao wide open for the lay up. Howard should’ve picked up Varejao, but he was too busy concentrating on Lebron.
11:15 – Dwight Howard – Missed Rotation.
Second, possession of the game, Dwight again leaves his man Z to roam around. Lewis leaves Varejao just for a millisecond to shadow Z. Wide layup for Varejao, gets fouled, missed the layup.
10:25 – Dwight Howard – ½ a missed rotation
Third Posession - Dwight rotates over to Mo Williams on a dribble penetration, leaves his man Varejao open for a layup.
10:07 – Lebron James – ½ a missed rotation
Lebron leaves Alston to cover Lewis, leaves Alston open for a wide open 3. Lebron recovers late, but Alston misses.
9:49 – Lebron James/ Anderson Varejao – Basketball IQ
Lebron is doubled in the right corner, is trapped has nowhere to go. Varejao screens Turkogulu giving James an opening, Magic scramble to recover leaving Delonte West with a wide open 3.
Lebron gets an assist, Delonte gets a 3, but this play was all Varejao from start to finish. Unfortunately the box score impact of the play is nothing, as far as Varejao is concerned.
9.49 – Dwight Howard – missed rotation
Same play as above - Howard is roaming once again, doubles Lebron then recovers to no one in particular, Varejao ends up on Alston, Howard on no one, Alstons guy West has eons to get 3 off.
9.19 – Dwight Howard – ½ missed rotation
Howard again leaves Varejao wide open for the layup. Recovers just in time, to alter the shot. Z gets the rebound. Dunk. Again, this play was all Varejao, but the box score impact ? A missed field goal attempt, and 2 points and an offensive rebound for Z.
8.55 – Anderson Varejao – excellent rotation
Traps Turkogulu on a surprise double under the basket – Turnover. Again, no boxscore impact.
8.36 – Anderson Varejao – Basketball IQ
Excellent screen to trap Turkogulu. His man West has eons to launch of a 3. Box Score impact: none
8:36 – Dwight Howard – missed rotation
So far, Dwight has been responsible for the Cavaliers scoring every single time. This time, he leaves Varejao, to just protect the lane (no dribble penetration). Varejao is free to screen Hedo, and there’s no one to switch to Delonte because Howard is all the way under the basket.
7.28 – Lebron James – 2 missed rotations
Lebron is nowhere on this play, his man is Alston, but there is no one on him. Mo Williams hustles to cover Alston on the pass out and then hustles to cover his man, Lee on the pass. All the while, Lebron is not guarding any one on the floor.
7:28 – Anderson Varejao – Excellent rotation
Traps Turkogulu under the bucket. Turkogulu has to make a wild pass to get to Alston. No box score impact.
7:18 – Lebron James – Excessive dribbling
That description is not quite accurate, because Lebron was not dribbling. He just held on to the ball from 7:18 to 7:07 without doing anything – Missed Jumper.
6:39 – Anderson Varejao – Exceptional Screen.
Frees up Mo Williams for what should be an open jumper.
6:39 –Dwight Howard – Good rotation
Dwight Howard recovers in time to contest the jumper.
6:14 – Lebron James – Missed Rotation
Lebron is playing about 8 feet off Alston. When Alston gets the pass, he has to rush towards Alston, which makes it impossible to change direction. Alston blows by him. Excellent rotation and contest by Varejao.

I will look at these 6 minutes later -- my guess is you're inferring missed rotations when it's something else. I'm only noting them if they are clear. Hedging on weakside help or not catching up with the ball when the offense gains an advantage (from screening or dribble penetration) is not a missed rotation.

UPDATE: Right off the top, you can't call that first play a missed rotation on Howard. That's scheme CAUSED by James to cheat to that spot. It's Lewis who loses track of Varejao behind him once Z clears his space. This is the type of zone-cheating stuff the Celtics have used with Thibedeau. Lewis needs to keep his hands up and not do a double-take in re-finding Varejao and everything would be fine. That, and it's a great pass by James. YOu have the exact same setup on the next play (on the opposite side) and Lewis again turns the wrong way (and LeBron makes another great pass). These are not "missed rotations" by Dwight Howard.

What about Varejao? At 9:49, what you describe as "basketball IQ" I call "star waits for big to set screen." (And as you know, I think Varejao is tremendously underrated.) All the Magic defenders are hovering to cover LeBron -- James is causing this, the same way Shaq caused teams to help on his defender. Orlando doesn't defend Thabo Sefalosha that way. That's another play where it's unclear who holds defensive assignment responsibility unless you're on the Magic coaching staff. Should Alston leave Varejao and jump LeBron (would it matter? does Van Gundy want that?) Should Howard jump LeBron because he has the ball? Great offensive players dictate advantages. When they cheat or trap or double Lebron, it's not some missed rotation.

6:14 is the event I noted when James was blown by. But 7:28? Turkoglu draws a double-team -- LeBron immediately makes the correct rotation to step toward Lewis. But he can't commit all the way, because Orlando now has a 4 on 3 advantage on the other part of the floor. Turkoglu skips to Alston instead and WIlliams rotates to him. The ball ends up in the corner and classical defensive rotations dictate the nearest side defender - Z - close on the shooter. He does, but he's so slow he's still closing out a year later as we speak.

As I thought, you are misattributing blame on defense here.

Btw, good on you for going over the film -- I suggest more people watch with a discerning eye. There's a lot more to basketball than box score stats.

[drza]

Surprisingly, no one's mentioned Paul Pierce yet, despite him taking his team to 62 wins in the absence of KG, getting past the first round and taking the Magic to 7 games.

I think distributing credit amongst Celtics these past few years is one of the most interesting questions about. It will undoubtedly come to the forefront when we do '07-08.

A big part of my opinion though is that it's not really Pierce's team in the sense that the other players mentioned have "teams". I mean, Allen led the team in WS and APM in the regular season, Rondo led them in WS and APM in the post-season. I'm inclined to call Pierce the team's star, but it's actually within the realm of debate even before bringing Garnett into the picture.

This is untrue. When KG went down against the Jazz, the Cs were 41 - 11 (scoring margin +9.5) and had the lead against the Jazz. After he went down the team finished 21 - 9 (scoring margin +4.0). Team stats aren't perfect any more than individual stats are, but the Celtics after KG went down in '09 are a case where the numbers really held up.

Hollinger wrote at the start of the playoffs that since the Celtics without Garnett (scoring margin became +3.4 when adjusted for home court advantage) were so similar to the Bulls (scoring margin +2.6 after Salmons/Brad Miller deal) that the series between them would be a toss-up that would likely come down to HCA. He was right (I blogged about it after game 1: http://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/Bulls ... BBD938.htm )

He also said that the Magic were a better team than the Garnett-less Celtics, but that with HCA that series could be close but that the Magic should ultimately win.

Of course, his numbers also predicted that the Cavs would beat the Magic, and we know how that one turned out, but the point is that in the words of Denny Green, the Celtics without Garnett were who we thought they were. A solid team, somewhere between the Bulls and the Magic on the continuum, but nowhere near a 62-win squad or a championship contender.

[Silver Bullet]

I will look at these 6 minutes later -- my guess is you're inferring missed rotations when it's something else. I'm only noting them if they are clear. Hedging on weakside help or not catching up with the ball when the offense gains an advantage (from screening or dribble penetration) is not a missed rotation.

UPDATE: Right off the top, you can't call that first play a missed rotation on Howard. That's scheme CAUSED by James to cheat to that spot. It's Lewis who loses track of Varejao behind him once Z clears his space. This is the type of zone-cheating stuff the Celtics have used with Thibedeau. Lewis needs to keep his hands up and not do a double-take in re-finding Varejao and everything would be fine. That, and it's a great pass by James. YOu have the exact same setup on the next play (on the opposite side) and Lewis again turns the wrong way (and LeBron makes another great pass). These are not "missed rotations" by Dwight Howard.

What about Varejao? At 9:49, what you describe as "basketball IQ" I call "star waits for big to set screen." (And as you know, I think Varejao is tremendously underrated.) All the Magic defenders are hovering to cover LeBron -- James is causing this, the same way Shaq caused teams to help on his defender. Orlando doesn't defend Thabo Sefalosha that way. That's another play where it's unclear who holds defensive assignment responsibility unless you're on the Magic coaching staff. Should Alston leave Varejao and jump LeBron (would it matter? does Van Gundy want that?) Should Howard jump LeBron because he has the ball? Great offensive players dictate advantages. When they cheat or trap or double Lebron, it's not some missed rotation.

6:14 is the event I noted when James was blown by. But 7:28? Turkoglu draws a double-team -- LeBron immediately makes the correct rotation to step toward Lewis. But he can't commit all the way, because Orlando now has a 4 on 3 advantage on the other part of the floor. Turkoglu skips to Alston instead and WIlliams rotates to him. The ball ends up in the corner and classical defensive rotations dictate the nearest side defender - Z - close on the shooter. He does, but he's so slow he's still closing out a year later as we speak.

As I thought, you are misattributing blame on defense here.

Btw, good on you for going over the film -- I suggest more people watch with a discerning eye. There's a lot more to basketball than box score stats.

meh... I don't disagree with your comments either. For example, the play where Mo Williams scrambles to cover Alston and then Lee, I'd missed the Varejao trap the first time around. So I don't see it as unreasonable, if two people viewing the same play see two different things.

Shaq caused teams to scramble on the Magic too - he didn't win anything until he got heady players like Horry, Fox, Fisher and Shaw - I know Lebron gets a lot of attention, but that would get wasted with dumber players. Bynum for one, would've never made some of the screens Varejao does.

I wish I had the time to watch the whole game, but even under the strictest conditions, 1/2 a missed rotation for the whole game seems generous.

[ElGee]

I will look at these 6 minutes later -- my guess is you're inferring missed rotations when it's something else. I'm only noting them if they are clear. Hedging on weakside help or not catching up with the ball when the offense gains an advantage (from screening or dribble penetration) is not a missed rotation.

UPDATE: Right off the top, you can't call that first play a missed rotation on Howard. That's scheme CAUSED by James to cheat to that spot. It's Lewis who loses track of Varejao behind him once Z clears his space. This is the type of zone-cheating stuff the Celtics have used with Thibedeau. Lewis needs to keep his hands up and not do a double-take in re-finding Varejao and everything would be fine. That, and it's a great pass by James. YOu have the exact same setup on the next play (on the opposite side) and Lewis again turns the wrong way (and LeBron makes another great pass). These are not "missed rotations" by Dwight Howard.

What about Varejao? At 9:49, what you describe as "basketball IQ" I call "star waits for big to set screen." (And as you know, I think Varejao is tremendously underrated.) All the Magic defenders are hovering to cover LeBron -- James is causing this, the same way Shaq caused teams to help on his defender. Orlando doesn't defend Thabo Sefalosha that way. That's another play where it's unclear who holds defensive assignment responsibility unless you're on the Magic coaching staff. Should Alston leave Varejao and jump LeBron (would it matter? does Van Gundy want that?) Should Howard jump LeBron because he has the ball? Great offensive players dictate advantages. When they cheat or trap or double Lebron, it's not some missed rotation.

6:14 is the event I noted when James was blown by. But 7:28? Turkoglu draws a double-team -- LeBron immediately makes the correct rotation to step toward Lewis. But he can't commit all the way, because Orlando now has a 4 on 3 advantage on the other part of the floor. Turkoglu skips to Alston instead and WIlliams rotates to him. The ball ends up in the corner and classical defensive rotations dictate the nearest side defender - Z - close on the shooter. He does, but he's so slow he's still closing out a year later as we speak.

As I thought, you are misattributing blame on defense here.

Btw, good on you for going over the film -- I suggest more people watch with a discerning eye. There's a lot more to basketball than box score stats.

meh... I don't disagree with your comments either. For example, the play where Mo Williams scrambles to cover Alston and then Lee, I'd missed the Varejao trap the first time around. So I don't see it as unreasonable, if two people viewing the same play see two different things.

Shaq caused teams to scramble on the Magic too - he didn't win anything until he got heady players like Horry, Fox, Fisher and Shaw - I know Lebron gets a lot of attention, but that would get wasted with dumber players. Bynum for one, would've never made some of the screens Varejao does.

I wish I had the time to watch the whole game, but even under the strictest conditions, 1/2 a missed rotation for the whole game seems generous.

Actually good NBA players don't miss many rotations. (1) There aren't many to miss per game. (2) Most of the time they're fairly straightforward. Plenty of players play entire games without missing any.

Now, a slower rotation is another story. But how do we measure that without side-by-side comparisons? Second play of the Mavs-Spurs game tonight Marion gets free on a backscreen and Duncan provides help at the rim at the last second (he's the only Spur who can). Did he rotate? Absolutely. Could he have cheated a foot closer to the ball-side to begin with? Maybe. Could he have noticed the advantage a split-second earlier? If he were really on top of things. Could he have been physically quicker to the spot and maybe stuffed the shot? Only if he were 23.

So, not to get too sidetracked from the point of our specific player breakdowns for 09, but next time you watch a game, see if you can find a player missing an obvious rotation -- I bet there aren't that many. I counted 9 in the Heat-Celtics game and Miami was breaking down all over the place, although some of that had to do with using a roamer off of Rondo (which, by the way, is not a good strategy).

[ronnymac2]

^^^This is great dialogue. I trust this discussion more than any stat out there. Well done guys.

[Silver Bullet]

meh... I don't disagree with your comments either. For example, the play where Mo Williams scrambles to cover Alston and then Lee, I'd missed the Varejao trap the first time around. So I don't see it as unreasonable, if two people viewing the same play see two different things.

Shaq caused teams to scramble on the Magic too - he didn't win anything until he got heady players like Horry, Fox, Fisher and Shaw - I know Lebron gets a lot of attention, but that would get wasted with dumber players. Bynum for one, would've never made some of the screens Varejao does.

I wish I had the time to watch the whole game, but even under the strictest conditions, 1/2 a missed rotation for the whole game seems generous.

Actually good NBA players don't miss many rotations. (1) There aren't many to miss per game. (2) Most of the time they're fairly straightforward. Plenty of players play entire games without missing any.

Now, a slower rotation is another story. But how do we measure that without side-by-side comparisons? Second play of the Mavs-Spurs game tonight Marion gets free on a backscreen and Duncan provides help at the rim at the last second (he's the only Spur who can). Did he rotate? Absolutely. Could he have cheated a foot closer to the ball-side to begin with? Maybe. Could he have noticed the advantage a split-second earlier? If he were really on top of things. Could he have been physically quicker to the spot and maybe stuffed the shot? Only if he were 23.

So, not to get too sidetracked from the point of our specific player breakdowns for 09, but next time you watch a game, see if you can find a player missing an obvious rotation -- I bet there aren't that many. I counted 9 in the Heat-Celtics game and Miami was breaking down all over the place, although some of that had to do with using a roamer off of Rondo (which, by the way, is not a good strategy).

There's a fine line between missed and slow dude - if by missed you mean, the guy never makes the rotation - sure, I agree, that hardly ever happens. By missed I mean, the rotation was more than a split second late - it can make a world of difference. If Varejao is getting layup after layup - surely someone is doing something wrong - I say Howard was missing rotations. You say ?

For example, the first play -



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Howard is guarding no one here, while Lewis has to guard both Z and Varejao. How does that comprise picture perfect defense on Howard's part - and he does this on nearly every posession.

[Sedale Threatt]

It's not like he's just screwing around, though. That's strategy as dictated by the coaching staff -- overloading the strong side of the court whenever LeBron has the ball. Boston rode this same tactic to the 08 championship.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Regular Season:

1) Lebron - MVP, All-NBA/All-D(1st), Best record overall
2) Kobe - MVP runner-up, All-NBA/All-D(1st), Best record in West
3) Wade - All-NBA(1st)
4) Dwight - All-NBA/All-D(1st), DPOY
5) Paul - All-NBA(2nd)/All-D(1st)

-Lebron was a monster statwise. He made both the All-NBA & All-D 1st teams. He was the runaway MVP by leading his team to the best record.

-Kobe had a stellar season, and made the All-NBA/All-D 1st teams. He was the MVP runner-up and led LA to the best record in the West.

-Wade really turned it on during the second of the year. His stats were tremendous too. overall though, I have him behind Kobe who was the better 2-way player, and leader.

-It's tough to put Dwight at #4 while being All-NBA/All-D 1st team, AND DPOY. But his wild inconsistency on offense is what drops him here.

-Paul edges out Dirk because of crazy production, and better defense.


Playoffs:

1) Kobe - Finals MVP, Led team to 3 straight series wins against 50+ win teams
2) Lebron - off the charts stats
3) Dwight
4) Melo
5) Rondo

-Kobe's run was tremendous. When LA needed a win, Kobe came through. His leadership and production all make his 30/5/5 performance the best in the playoffs.

-Lebron was great in the 1st 2 rounds, but I do factor in the competition. Losing to a Magic without their all-star PG, and with HCA is a blackmark.

-Dwight was a defensive & rebounding force in the playoffs. His offensive game also came through most times.

-Melo was a machine for most of the playoffs, and gave LA all they could handle.

-Rondo frankly could be higher. His all-around play and leadersip impressed me.


Final rankings:

1) Kobe
2) Lebron
3) Dwight
4) Wade
5) Melo

Kobe did whatever LA needed to win the title. whether it was to score 40, or to D up Billups or Melo, Kobe did it. From day 1 he was on a mission, and delivered the stats and ring. He was the MVP runner, and Finals MVP. Lebron had better stats, but when put in context of the systems run by LA and Cle, both were comaprable. Not making the Finals despite HCA and with a healthy team puts Bron at #2 for me. The leadership factor was missing with him in the playoffs.

[Tesla]

No reason why Kobe should finish any lower than 2nd for last years overall imo. And Dwight should finish no lower than 3rd... and obviously Lebron should def be in that top 3.

For the most successful/accomplished year, I'd give it to Kobe, just because I feel that his playoff run and championship was really the ultimate ending for the year, and he was good enough individually. I do believe however that Lebron was still the better individual basketball player, but don't get it twisted, the gap that exists today did not exist to that extent a year ago.

1. Kobe
2. Lebron
3. Dwight
4. Wade
5. CP3

HM: Dirk, Melo , Roy, Pierce etc

[ElGee]

Howard is guarding no one here, while Lewis has to guard both Z and Varejao. How does that comprise picture perfect defense on Howard's part - and he does this on nearly every posession.

Right - see my earlier reply about this play and defensive approach.

It's not like he's just screwing around, though. That's strategy as dictated by the coaching staff -- overloading the strong side of the court whenever LeBron has the ball. Boston rode this same tactic to the 08 championship.

I mean, that's not even really a situation to be your proverbial split-second late on a rotation, as a lot of teams won't defend this way. Also, if you read my original summary of the game, I think you'll find LeBron had a much greater positive impact that Howard. I do. Wasn't one of Dwight's best outings on that end. (Which I think has been your contention, no?)

EDIT: Agree with your distinction about a missed rotation being clearly later than a split-second slow. Basically, in the simplest terms, if someone is wide open and they shouldn't be, that's what I'm talking about. The telling sign is usually a head turn, confused look, double-take, "where's my guy" pirouette...kind of like Lewis when he lost track of his backside. That, and defenders who stop moving when the rest of the team is scrambling and - VOILA! - a wide open shooter.

[Gongxi]

How many people are actually open to changing their opinions based on compelling arguments - and I ask this because I don't know if guys like penbeast and Warspite are even reading this thread. Seems to me, you guys came in, posted your opinions (rankings) and left it at that.

If that were the case, there'd be no point in having a discussion, we could've just done a poll for each year and left it at that. There are 31 people on the voting panel, but it seems like only 5-6 are contributing to the discussion.

I'm reading everything, but what's to say? If you're on this forum, in this thread, there's a 99.99% chance you followed basketball closely last season. While it's interesting to read, no one is really getting huge, game-changing information right now that's going to change your rankings. It's not like 2004, where most of us still saw it all and maybe forgot a couple key things, and it's not like 1995 that maybe half the group didn't see as a teenager/adult and lots of information is helpful, and it's like not 1977 where only a handful of posters saw it live. It was less than a year ago.

All people can haggle about, really, is the what should be prized more, and even that is very unlikely. If someone's gonna give bonus points to Bryant for being on a great team and take some away from Wade for being on a **** team, well...to me that's ridiculous, but I can't change their mind and convince them to prize one thing over another.

I mean, is there anyway that Unbiased Fan doesn't vote for Kobe going back at least to 2003? No. Why bother?

[mysticbb]

EDIT: Agree with your distinction about a missed rotation being clearly later than a split-second slow. Basically, in the simplest terms, if someone is wide open and they shouldn't be, that's what I'm talking about. The telling sign is usually a head turn, confused look, double-take, "where's my guy" pirouette...kind of like Lewis when he lost track of his backside. That, and defenders who stop moving when the rest of the team is scrambling and - VOILA! - a wide open shooter.

The problem with your rather specific discussion is that you have to keep in mind that the offense has always a small advantage, because the defense can only react. Marc Cuban made a good comment about that on the last stats conference at MIT, he said: "In basketball, the coach yells out the play and the defense still doesn’t know what to do."
And what you are calling "missed rotation" is mostly just good offense.

I mean, is there anyway that Unbiased Fan doesn't vote for Kobe going back at least to 2003? No. Why bother?

Yeah, rather pointless to argue with him. It is like that one guy who gave the MVP vote to Allen Iverson in 2000 while everyone else knew Shaquille O'Neal was the clear cut MVP. Not quite sure what someone tries to accomplish with that kind of fanatism.

[bastillon]

I would have put Kobe in the #1 slot if he had a PER near 30 in the regular season

you killed me man...

overall, this discussion made me change my mind a little bit. I have a hard time putting LeBron over Dwight or Kobe when his team underachieved in the playoffs, but there were some factors that convinced me.

1) drza pointed out that regardless of how deflated Dwight's APM numbers may have been, Magic were still able to compete at a very high level with Gortat instead of him. now I consider Gortat a great player and very underrated, but that clearly exacerbates Dwight's value, when he can be replaced by another top center that fits well in their scheme. you sure won't replicate LeBron's production with Iguodala and neither can you do the same with Roy instead of Kobe.

2) drza pointed out that LeBron's superiority over Kobe was seen in his individual performance against the Magic. while LeBron did in fact play better against Orlando than Kobe, I wondered how much impact the defensive matchups made in this case. after all, Magic had personnel to guard Kobe, but not LeBron. they had 2-guards, but terrible defensive 3-man in Turkoglu.

what convinced me though was that while you can defend Kobe with SFs (Battier, Artest etc) and actually get even better results than with 2-men, you can't do the same for LeBron because he'll abuse guys like Raja Bell or Afflalo. LeBron gets the advantage from his superior versatility - he can score against SGs better than Kobe vs SFs.

1.Bron
2.Kobe
3.Dwight

4.Wade
5.Nowitzki

in this case Wade is better because of regular season, which apparently matters here more than I initially thought, and measuring much better in adv stats. Wade was IMO the best player in that RS, so that kinda puts him over Dirk. his uninspired postseason still can be argued as better than Dirk's so there isn't big enough gap in Nowitzki's favor to offset the advantage Wade got in the RS.

Dr MJ, Nowitzki played excellent series against the Spurs. it's not really seen in the numbers but once you watch the series, you'll understand his value. my memory of those games is that Dirk was doubled and tripled all series long and he had tons of hockey assists and was basically the only reason why Mavs were functioning offensively, because of the fact that Spurs defense had to collapse in the first place.

also, I don't agree with your assesment of this year's series against the Bobcats. they were pretty much dominated by Magic's defense and that's largely because of Howard's impact on that end. I don't see why people judge Howard based on his offensive production when it's not even his main attribute in the first place. it's like you cherry-picked bad defensive series for Nash and argued that his contributions are overrated when in fact he dominated on the other end. Howard did too, just the other way around.

[drza]

I guess it's time to make my vote official. I'm still not fully convinced about the Kobe/Wade ranking, but where I am now is that Wade's performance against the Hawks hurts him when compared to Kobe. While it may have been unrealistic to expect Wade to carry a poor line-up deep into the playoffs, it wasn't unrealistic to think he could lead them past the Hawks. He didn't have to grossly outperform expectations for them to win, and in several of the losses he pretty solidly underperformed. And it was a 7-game series, which makes me at least wonder if one more great game from him would have been enough to propel his team to the second round. So, that said, my 2009 rankings:

1) LeBron
2) Kobe
3) Wade
4) Howard
5) Dirk

HM: Paul

[bastillon]

shouldn't you put Dwight higher for his 26/13 70% TS ECFs ? after all, he exceeded expectations whereas Wade underperformed in the playoffs.

[drza]

shouldn't you put Dwight higher for his 26/13 70% TS ECFs ? after all, he exceeded expectations whereas Wade underperformed in the playoffs.

I don't know that Wade necessarily underperformed on the whole, as he balanced out his subpar games with some pretty big performances in the same series. For me, he just didn't do enough to solidify his ranking as top-2 in the NBA over what Kobe accomplished. But to my way of thinking Howard underperformed to a larger degree than Wade against both the Celtics and the Lakers, and if he wouldn't have had a team with such a talent advantage against the Celtics he would never have had the chance to shine against Big Z in the conference Finals. I have trouble giving him enough of a playoff boost for that performance to overcome that Wade was just clearly a better player over the course of the year.

[Tim_Hardawayy]

I will be fascinated to see several Lakers' fans rankings for the 05-06 season, and how consistent their arguments remain.

[JordansBulls]

Overall here are my rankings:

1a. Kobe (2nd in MVP voting and Finals MVP Winner)

1b. Lebron (Best numbers all around, #1 overall seed, but losing with HCA is big here especially on a team that won 65+ games when every analyst picked them to win the conference at least.)
NOTE: If Orlando had the better seed/record and Lebron did what he did, I would have him #1 because it would have meant he lost to a team that was considered better.

1c. Dwight (Had he won the title and played better in the finals he could have been #1 as it would have meant beating 3 teams that won 60+ games)

4. Wade (2003 Tmac season here)

5. CP3 (Best Numbers for a Guard last year)

[CellarDoor]

There's going to be some interesting arguments in a couple key spots in the coming weeks. I can't wait to read some of you guys' thoughts. I do a cursory stat investigation and the rest of based off what I see, but as we get back in years, my memory will go, and as we get back even further, all I've seen is tape/youtube. Finding some of you guys' methods should help me along.

[lorak]

5. CP3 (Best Numbers for a Guard last year)

Not only for last year, but all time for any guard not named Michael Jordan.
That’s why I think he should be higher than 5th place.