'17-'18 POY discussion

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Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#161 » by RSCD3_ » Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:14 pm

E-Balla wrote:
ardee wrote:I'm not punishing LeBron for his team's failings.

And what about Lebron's failings? He's possibly the worst defender in the league right now. Like its obvious when watching and the numbers? By RAPM Lebron is the 8th best offensive player in the league and 480th best defensive player. The Cavs are the 28th ranked defense in the league and he manages to lead all those guys in having the worst defensive on/off rating and the worst defensive on court rating. He's made plays like this:

Read on Twitter


A habit. If Lebron is a +6 offensively he's a -5.5 defensively. Dude is barely playing at an average level right now. I know its easy to ignore defense for big numbers but we went through this last year with Isaiah Thomas. Just because his name is Lebron James it doesn't make him any better.

ardee wrote:What's wrong with KD? He's clearly inferior to Curry, but 26-7-6 on 50/40/90 splits, leading the league in blocks, on a 9 SRS team isn't worth an HM?

He's isn't leading the league in blocks and his defense is clearly a step down from last year. And offensively you mentioned his shooting splits but his turnovers are way up, his TS% is the lowest its been since 2012, his ORTG is the lowest its been since 2012, and his relative ORTG is the lowest it's been since 2009. Just watching him he doesn't seem to have that same ferocity headed to the rim and it seems to me like Curry is floating him. They're only a +5 team with KD on the court without Steph. That's not that impressive. Plus for the second straight year they improve by leaps and bounds when he's not playing. They have a +15.9 point differential in the games he's missed and if you take out the Sacramento game where they sat both him and Steph they've been undefeated and played at a +18.9 level when he's out. I just can't rank a guy that's dipping in production to the point where he's not top 10 in raw production, a guy that doesn't make an impact, and a guy that in the general sense doesn't matter for his team in my top 5. I need something to latch on to besides his reputation to rate him highly.


Where did you get the RAPM?
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Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#162 » by E-Balla » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:04 pm

RSCD3_ wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
ardee wrote:I'm not punishing LeBron for his team's failings.

And what about Lebron's failings? He's possibly the worst defender in the league right now. Like its obvious when watching and the numbers? By RAPM Lebron is the 8th best offensive player in the league and 480th best defensive player. The Cavs are the 28th ranked defense in the league and he manages to lead all those guys in having the worst defensive on/off rating and the worst defensive on court rating. He's made plays like this:

Read on Twitter


A habit. If Lebron is a +6 offensively he's a -5.5 defensively. Dude is barely playing at an average level right now. I know its easy to ignore defense for big numbers but we went through this last year with Isaiah Thomas. Just because his name is Lebron James it doesn't make him any better.

ardee wrote:What's wrong with KD? He's clearly inferior to Curry, but 26-7-6 on 50/40/90 splits, leading the league in blocks, on a 9 SRS team isn't worth an HM?

He's isn't leading the league in blocks and his defense is clearly a step down from last year. And offensively you mentioned his shooting splits but his turnovers are way up, his TS% is the lowest its been since 2012, his ORTG is the lowest its been since 2012, and his relative ORTG is the lowest it's been since 2009. Just watching him he doesn't seem to have that same ferocity headed to the rim and it seems to me like Curry is floating him. They're only a +5 team with KD on the court without Steph. That's not that impressive. Plus for the second straight year they improve by leaps and bounds when he's not playing. They have a +15.9 point differential in the games he's missed and if you take out the Sacramento game where they sat both him and Steph they've been undefeated and played at a +18.9 level when he's out. I just can't rank a guy that's dipping in production to the point where he's not top 10 in raw production, a guy that doesn't make an impact, and a guy that in the general sense doesn't matter for his team in my top 5. I need something to latch on to besides his reputation to rate him highly.


Where did you get the RAPM?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSzp3G5rwP9xgCgluVGmR3Qj4-BMoGSYiuTKM6o_pzES6s95oQE1nQvB2CXed-4fRc_MMGgpULtDaJ_/pubhtml?gid=1825430955&single=true
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Re: RE: Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#163 » by ardee » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:44 pm

E-Balla wrote:
RSCD3_ wrote:
E-Balla wrote:And what about Lebron's failings? He's possibly the worst defender in the league right now. Like its obvious when watching and the numbers? By RAPM Lebron is the 8th best offensive player in the league and 480th best defensive player. The Cavs are the 28th ranked defense in the league and he manages to lead all those guys in having the worst defensive on/off rating and the worst defensive on court rating. He's made plays like this:

Read on Twitter


A habit. If Lebron is a +6 offensively he's a -5.5 defensively. Dude is barely playing at an average level right now. I know its easy to ignore defense for big numbers but we went through this last year with Isaiah Thomas. Just because his name is Lebron James it doesn't make him any better.


He's isn't leading the league in blocks and his defense is clearly a step down from last year. And offensively you mentioned his shooting splits but his turnovers are way up, his TS% is the lowest its been since 2012, his ORTG is the lowest its been since 2012, and his relative ORTG is the lowest it's been since 2009. Just watching him he doesn't seem to have that same ferocity headed to the rim and it seems to me like Curry is floating him. They're only a +5 team with KD on the court without Steph. That's not that impressive. Plus for the second straight year they improve by leaps and bounds when he's not playing. They have a +15.9 point differential in the games he's missed and if you take out the Sacramento game where they sat both him and Steph they've been undefeated and played at a +18.9 level when he's out. I just can't rank a guy that's dipping in production to the point where he's not top 10 in raw production, a guy that doesn't make an impact, and a guy that in the general sense doesn't matter for his team in my top 5. I need something to latch on to besides his reputation to rate him highly.


Where did you get the RAPM?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSzp3G5rwP9xgCgluVGmR3Qj4-BMoGSYiuTKM6o_pzES6s95oQE1nQvB2CXed-4fRc_MMGgpULtDaJ_/pubhtml?gid=1825430955&single=true
Some pretty insane results that IMO disqualify LeBron's ranking as legitimate. Dejounte Murray more impactul on defense than Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler? Victor Oladipo the second most impactful player in the league? KD a negative on defense?

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Re: RE: Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#164 » by therealbig3 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:53 pm

ardee wrote:
Some pretty insane results that IMO disqualify LeBron's ranking as legitimate. Dejounte Murray more impactul on defense than Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler? Victor Oladipo the second most impactful player in the league? KD a negative on defense?

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Feel like I'm taking crazy pills, because I'm sure the fact that RAPM isn't a definitive ranking list and that context needs to be applied for everyone has been thoroughly explained to you multiple times, and that perceived weird rankings really don't invalidate the stat.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#165 » by ardee » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:54 pm

therealbig3 wrote:
ardee wrote:
Some pretty insane results that IMO disqualify LeBron's ranking as legitimate. Dejounte Murray more impactul on defense than Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler? Victor Oladipo the second most impactful player in the league? KD a negative on defense?

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Feel like I'm taking crazy pills, because I'm sure the fact that RAPM isn't a definitive ranking list and that context needs to be applied for everyone has been thoroughly explained to you multiple times, and that perceived weird rankings really don't invalidate the stat.
That sounds like a way of saying "only the rankings that say what I want them to say are accurate."

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#166 » by bondom34 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:13 pm

ardee wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:
ardee wrote:Some pretty insane results that IMO disqualify LeBron's ranking as legitimate. Dejounte Murray more impactul on defense than Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler? Victor Oladipo the second most impactful player in the league? KD a negative on defense?

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Feel like I'm taking crazy pills, because I'm sure the fact that RAPM isn't a definitive ranking list and that context needs to be applied for everyone has been thoroughly explained to you multiple times, and that perceived weird rankings really don't invalidate the stat.
That sounds like a way of saying "only the rankings that say what I want them to say are accurate."

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No stat is a "ranking".
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#167 » by ardee » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:34 pm

bondom34 wrote:
ardee wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:
Feel like I'm taking crazy pills, because I'm sure the fact that RAPM isn't a definitive ranking list and that context needs to be applied for everyone has been thoroughly explained to you multiple times, and that perceived weird rankings really don't invalidate the stat.
That sounds like a way of saying "only the rankings that say what I want them to say are accurate."

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No stat is a "ranking".


Well, that's what that spreadsheet is. A list of players in descending order based on total RAPM.

And the argument literally seems to be, "Oh, Victor Oladipo isn't the 2nd most impactful player in the league because RAPM is wrong in this case.... but LeBron is the 480th least impactful defensive player in the league because in that case it's right!"

You can't have it both ways. The argument realbig makes above is literally just saying that you can handwave the results you don't agree with.

A methodology needs to be consistent to be credible.

That's why I will never ever use this garbage stat in my evaluations.
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Re: RE: Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#168 » by E-Balla » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:36 pm

ardee wrote:
Some pretty insane results that IMO disqualify LeBron's ranking as legitimate. Dejounte Murray more impactul on defense than Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler? Victor Oladipo the second most impactful player in the league? KD a negative on defense?

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Then how about this, watch every game and personally rank each player from 1 to 491.

If you did you'd notice Dejounte Murray is absolutely on the short list of best defenders in the league, Dipo is easily a top 5ish player, and KD isn't a good defender just because he blocks shots. When you see ppg you don't just rate scorers based on that do you?
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#169 » by bondom34 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:37 pm

ardee wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
ardee wrote:That sounds like a way of saying "only the rankings that say what I want them to say are accurate."

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No stat is a "ranking".


Well, that's what that spreadsheet is. A list of players in descending order based on total RAPM.

And the argument literally seems to be, "Oh, Victor Oladipo isn't the 2nd most impactful player in the league because RAPM is wrong in this case.... but LeBron is the 480th least impactful defensive player in the league because in that case it's right!"

You can't have it both ways. The argument realbig makes above is literally just saying that you can handwave the results you don't agree with.

A methodology needs to be consistent to be credible.

That's why I will never ever use this garbage stat in my evaluations.

Actually it's not.

Find me a list of any statistic. It will be ranked on something. Therefore, any statistic is invalid because it can't rank a player. Don't ever use any statistic to measure a player, not PPG, not assists, not PER, nothing.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#170 » by ardee » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:42 pm

bondom34 wrote:
ardee wrote:
bondom34 wrote:No stat is a "ranking".


Well, that's what that spreadsheet is. A list of players in descending order based on total RAPM.

And the argument literally seems to be, "Oh, Victor Oladipo isn't the 2nd most impactful player in the league because RAPM is wrong in this case.... but LeBron is the 480th least impactful defensive player in the league because in that case it's right!"

You can't have it both ways. The argument realbig makes above is literally just saying that you can handwave the results you don't agree with.

A methodology needs to be consistent to be credible.

That's why I will never ever use this garbage stat in my evaluations.

Actually it's not.

Find me a list of any statistic. It will be ranked on something. Therefore, any statistic is invalid because it can't rank a player. Don't ever use any statistic to measure a player, not PPG, not assists, not PER, nothing.


PER is no better I agree but the raw stats are consistent. If Harden leads the league in scoring, it's because he scores the most points. It doesn't claim otherwise, it's honest.

RAPM is deceptive af and can be used to push agendas like nobody's business.
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Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#171 » by therealbig3 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:48 pm

Actually what I'm saying is to apply context to whatever stat you use, including RAPM. Players are in different roles, in different team contexts, playing different minutes. Comparing players that play similar roles and minutes is the best way to use RAPM. RAPM is more of a general trend than a hard and fast result...it's not saying LeBron is the 480th best player in the league...it's saying he's having an incredibly down year in terms of his impact, mainly due to a huge defensive drop-off...and anyone that's been watching would agree with that.

And it's not like box score stats shouldn't be adjusted for with regards to their context either.

TBH, it just sounds more like you saying "I don't use stats that paint a picture I don't like". Because I can tell you're finding it really hard to reconcile the fact that LeBron is actually playing pretty poorly by superstar standards despite an impressive stat line (KD fits in here too), because you're perfectly cool with and actually spend a huge amount of effort in ranking players by how impressive their stat line is...but somehow you have a MAJOR issue with RAPM in that sense, when in reality, those are both flawed approaches.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#172 » by E-Balla » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:49 pm

ardee wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
ardee wrote:
Well, that's what that spreadsheet is. A list of players in descending order based on total RAPM.

And the argument literally seems to be, "Oh, Victor Oladipo isn't the 2nd most impactful player in the league because RAPM is wrong in this case.... but LeBron is the 480th least impactful defensive player in the league because in that case it's right!"

You can't have it both ways. The argument realbig makes above is literally just saying that you can handwave the results you don't agree with.

A methodology needs to be consistent to be credible.

That's why I will never ever use this garbage stat in my evaluations.

Actually it's not.

Find me a list of any statistic. It will be ranked on something. Therefore, any statistic is invalid because it can't rank a player. Don't ever use any statistic to measure a player, not PPG, not assists, not PER, nothing.


PER is no better I agree but the raw stats are consistent. If Harden leads the league in scoring, it's because he scores the most points. It doesn't claim otherwise, it's honest.

RAPM is deceptive af and can be used to push agendas like nobody's business.

Nick Young averaged more PPG than Tyson Chandler in 2014 but he's not better than him. Its a garbage statistic.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#173 » by therealbig3 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:51 pm

ardee wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
ardee wrote:
Well, that's what that spreadsheet is. A list of players in descending order based on total RAPM.

And the argument literally seems to be, "Oh, Victor Oladipo isn't the 2nd most impactful player in the league because RAPM is wrong in this case.... but LeBron is the 480th least impactful defensive player in the league because in that case it's right!"

You can't have it both ways. The argument realbig makes above is literally just saying that you can handwave the results you don't agree with.

A methodology needs to be consistent to be credible.

That's why I will never ever use this garbage stat in my evaluations.

Actually it's not.

Find me a list of any statistic. It will be ranked on something. Therefore, any statistic is invalid because it can't rank a player. Don't ever use any statistic to measure a player, not PPG, not assists, not PER, nothing.


PER is no better I agree but the raw stats are consistent. If Harden leads the league in scoring, it's because he scores the most points. It doesn't claim otherwise, it's honest.

RAPM is deceptive af and can be used to push agendas like nobody's business.


RAPM doesn't claim anything otherwise either. It's a list of the players whose teams see the biggest difference in point differential when they're on the court, with some adjustments for team context. It's not pretending to be anything else either.

Just like with any other stat, it's up to the people using it to interpret it correctly. Raw stats are manipulated like crazy too. Like how TS% has been used in this thread to act like Westbrook isn't among the elite offensive players in the league.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#174 » by ardee » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:58 pm

E-Balla wrote:
ardee wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Actually it's not.

Find me a list of any statistic. It will be ranked on something. Therefore, any statistic is invalid because it can't rank a player. Don't ever use any statistic to measure a player, not PPG, not assists, not PER, nothing.


PER is no better I agree but the raw stats are consistent. If Harden leads the league in scoring, it's because he scores the most points. It doesn't claim otherwise, it's honest.

RAPM is deceptive af and can be used to push agendas like nobody's business.

Nick Young averaged more PPG than Tyson Chandler in 2014 but he's not better than him. Its a garbage statistic.


When did I say that? All PPG tells us is that Nick Young averaged more points per game than Chandler.

RAPM claims to tell us about impact, but then when it provides results people don't agree with, they handwave those and focus on the ones that they do agree with.
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Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#175 » by Outside » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:00 pm

E-Balla wrote:
Outside wrote:No, I'm criticizing a 31.5% usage rate player for having a 23.7% assist rate, which is really low compared to other 30% or higher usage rate players and particularly for someone who is the primary playmaker for his team. What does height have to do with it? Durant has a 29.9% usage rate and 25.4% assist rate, which is better than Giannis despite Durant being the third-best playmaker on his team. Oh, and Durant is tall.

A 23.7 ast% with a 31.5 usg rate isn't at all low for a forward which is what you're missing. Again you're criticizing his play style and not the level of his play.

And KD from 2013-2017 had a 23.8 ast%. Again that's still impressive for a forward. Just because he's not getting 8 apg it doesn't mean he's not a good passer.

And if you watched Milwaukee you'd see he's not running point forward nearly as much. He's being asked to score since Middleton can pass, Bledsoe can run the offense, and there's no Jabari/Monroe to just score.

That's a fair point about Bledsoe, but you're missing my larger point -- we're talking about POY credentials, and for that, which of these is better:

-- High usage rate, high scoring, low assist rate
-- High usage rate, high scoring, high assist rate

I realize there are other factors, but to sweep away assist rate as if it is irrelevant doesn't make sense when considering candidates for POY. All of the candidates are high usage, most are within a range of 5 PPG (Butler being the outlier), and they all create or otherwise open offensive opportunities for teammates, but to varying degrees.

Giannis is exceptionally effective driving to the basket, evading defenders, and using his length and athleticism to score. He draws the defense to him on those drives, but he scores at such a high rate in those situations that it's generally better for him to take those shots, even with the defense collapsing on him, than it would be to pass to teammates with open opportunities created by the collapsed defense. Passing for an open three could be a better option except that the Bucks are a poor three-point shooting team (27th in attempts, 28th in makes, 21st in percentage), so part of Giannis' low assist rate can be attributed to lack of three-point shooting to make passing out of his drives a viable option.

However, another big part of the issue is that Giannis shoots really poorly outside of three feet, so when he has the ball anywhere away from the basket, he doesn't command double-teams. Since he has no gravity other than his drives, defenders can stay with the other Buck players, and Giannis therefore doesn't create as many open opportunities for teammates when compared to other POY candidates. His teammates' shooting deficiencies drive his assist rate lower on his drives, and his shooting deficiency drives his assist rate lower on everything else.

The whole reason we're discussing this is that I said Giannis' poor shooting outside of three feet and low assist rate were flaws in his resume for POY. You countered that they weren't, but I stand by my assertion that these are weaknesses compared to other POY candidates.

What matters is team efficiency not individual player efficiency. Lamarcus Aldridge lead Portland to a #2 offense while having a 51 TS% because he took all the bad shots and opened up great shots for his teammates. Westbrook is similar.

But as weekend_warrior pointed out:
weekend_warrior wrote:OKC is ranked 22 in team TS% with 54.5%, which is still well below league average. And this is mainly because Westbrook takes a s***load of shots on bad efficiency. They have a good ORTG because of their high offensive rebounding numbers, which is by far leading the league. Mainly because Steven Adams is by far leading the league in ORB%. This guy is really good.

Now you can tell me that this works because of all the missed FGA of Westbrook, but honestly, every sane person would take the player that can score with the initial action on (much) higher efficiency.

It's that bolded part that matters in this conversation, because we are talking about the best of the best. I don't see how you can rationally say that missing a lot of shots doesn't matter when comparing Westbrook to other elite players who also create for teammates while making more of their shots.

All I said is that 51.1 TS% is a weakness in Westbrook's POY resume. I didn't say TS% was the be-all, end-all of efficiency or that turnovers don't matter or whatever else. I just pointed out his really low TS% relative to other candidates as an indicator of an area where he lags the other candidates. I'm not convinced that him missing all those shots is irrelevant.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#176 » by bondom34 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:15 pm

ardee wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
ardee wrote:
Well, that's what that spreadsheet is. A list of players in descending order based on total RAPM.

And the argument literally seems to be, "Oh, Victor Oladipo isn't the 2nd most impactful player in the league because RAPM is wrong in this case.... but LeBron is the 480th least impactful defensive player in the league because in that case it's right!"

You can't have it both ways. The argument realbig makes above is literally just saying that you can handwave the results you don't agree with.

A methodology needs to be consistent to be credible.

That's why I will never ever use this garbage stat in my evaluations.

Actually it's not.

Find me a list of any statistic. It will be ranked on something. Therefore, any statistic is invalid because it can't rank a player. Don't ever use any statistic to measure a player, not PPG, not assists, not PER, nothing.


PER is no better I agree but the raw stats are consistent. If Harden leads the league in scoring, it's because he scores the most points. It doesn't claim otherwise, it's honest.

RAPM is deceptive af and can be used to push agendas like nobody's business.

Huh?

I don't think you know what RAPM is claiming to be. It isn't a ranking. It wasn't ever a ranking. It wasn't ever intended to be a ranking.

This is like me saying "Harden scores the most PPG but he isn't the best player so using PPG is useless."

That's just bad use of information.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#177 » by therealbig3 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:16 pm

ardee wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
ardee wrote:
PER is no better I agree but the raw stats are consistent. If Harden leads the league in scoring, it's because he scores the most points. It doesn't claim otherwise, it's honest.

RAPM is deceptive af and can be used to push agendas like nobody's business.

Nick Young averaged more PPG than Tyson Chandler in 2014 but he's not better than him. Its a garbage statistic.


When did I say that? All PPG tells us is that Nick Young averaged more points per game than Chandler.

RAPM claims to tell us about impact, but then when it provides results people don't agree with, they handwave those and focus on the ones that they do agree with.


Where does it claim this? It tells us who is a part of the biggest difference in point differential when they're on the court, in a specific team context. The interpretation of impact is based on adjusting for that context. But again, it's about the interpretation, the statistic itself is not telling you anything that's not true and not actually happening.

The only handwaving I see is the dismissal of an entire statistic because it presents results YOU don't agree with.

I can pull up a bunch of mediocre offensive players that scored a bunch of points on strong efficiency (Corey Maggette, Kevin Martin, etc), and make the claim they're better than (or at least comparable to) Kobe as scorers, if the proper context isn't applied. And you're willing to provide that context in the Nick Young vs Tyson Chandler example, but you're unwilling to do so with RAPM. That's pretty inconsistent.
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Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#178 » by bondom34 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:21 pm

Outside wrote:It's that bolded part that matters in this conversation, because we are talking about the best of the best. I don't see how you can rationally say that missing a lot of shots doesn't matter when comparing Westbrook to other elite players who also create for teammates while making more of their shots.

All I said is that 51.1 TS% is a weakness in Westbrook's POY resume. I didn't say TS% was the be-all, end-all of efficiency or that turnovers don't matter or whatever else. I just pointed out his really low TS% relative to other candidates as an indicator of an area where he lags the other candidates. I'm not convinced that him missing all those shots is irrelevant.

It is however relevant if his misses aren't harming the offense to much extent. And if those misses are converted at a higher than normal rate due to O rebounding. From 2015-2016, but still relevant:

https://web.stanford.edu/class/stats50/files/82454.pdf

Drawn from the model’s results [see Appendix table 2 -3 for summarized results], table 1 indicates that point
guard Russell Westbrook’s impact on the Oklahoma City Thunder’s chance of collecting an offensive rebound while on the court during
an offensive possession is significantly positive compared to an average NBA player, most notably on missed shots between 0-8FT and
23+FT while ranking in the top-12 in four shot distance categories. Known for a style of play that is often criticized as reckless and
detrimental towards the team while on offense, the model’s results suggest that “Maniac Russ’s” style of play actually increases the
chance of an offensive rebound and consequentially increases the Thunder’s expected point value during a possession. On closer review,
this should not be surprising and highlight, despite high volume shot attempts, the value Westbrook’s style of play adds to the Thunder.
In general, Westbrook is one of the more aggressive dribbledrive
guards in the NBA and excels at penetrating and pressuring
defenses to react to his actions. This style of play can result in several
actions that, although may lead to a missed shot, actually put the offense
in a better position to capture an offensive rebound off a missed shot. As
stated earlier, driving into the lane provokes help defenders, which can
result in 1) clear paths to the rebound for teammates if Westbrook
attempts and misses the shot or 2) puts Westbrook in the immediate
vicinity of the ball making one more body the defense must overcome to
collect the rebound. Additionally, by pressuring and collapsing the
defense, Westbrook can opt to pass out towards the perimeter to likely
open teammates for a shot that, even if missed, has the second highest
probability of an offensive rebound.


Yep, he misses shots. But those aren't really killing an offense like most guys are. (Sorry for formatting).
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Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#179 » by E-Balla » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:06 pm

Outside wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
Outside wrote:No, I'm criticizing a 31.5% usage rate player for having a 23.7% assist rate, which is really low compared to other 30% or higher usage rate players and particularly for someone who is the primary playmaker for his team. What does height have to do with it? Durant has a 29.9% usage rate and 25.4% assist rate, which is better than Giannis despite Durant being the third-best playmaker on his team. Oh, and Durant is tall.

A 23.7 ast% with a 31.5 usg rate isn't at all low for a forward which is what you're missing. Again you're criticizing his play style and not the level of his play.

And KD from 2013-2017 had a 23.8 ast%. Again that's still impressive for a forward. Just because he's not getting 8 apg it doesn't mean he's not a good passer.

And if you watched Milwaukee you'd see he's not running point forward nearly as much. He's being asked to score since Middleton can pass, Bledsoe can run the offense, and there's no Jabari/Monroe to just score.

That's a fair point about Bledsoe, but you're missing my larger point -- we're talking about POY credentials, and for that, which of these is better:

-- High usage rate, high scoring, low assist rate
-- High usage rate, high scoring, high assist rate

I realize there are other factors, but to sweep away assist rate as if it is irrelevant doesn't make sense when considering candidates for POY. All of the candidates are high usage, most are within a range of 5 PPG (Butler being the outlier), and they all create or otherwise open offensive opportunities for teammates, but to varying degrees.

Giannis is exceptionally effective driving to the basket, evading defenders, and using his length and athleticism to score. He draws the defense to him on those drives, but he scores at such a high rate in those situations that it's generally better for him to take those shots, even with the defense collapsing on him, than it would be to pass to teammates with open opportunities created by the collapsed defense. Passing for an open three could be a better option except that the Bucks are a poor three-point shooting team (27th in attempts, 28th in makes, 21st in percentage), so part of Giannis' low assist rate can be attributed to lack of three-point shooting to make passing out of his drives a viable option.

However, another big part of the issue is that Giannis shoots really poorly outside of three feet, so when he has the ball anywhere away from the basket, he doesn't command double-teams. Since he has no gravity other than his drives, defenders can stay with the other Buck players, and Giannis therefore doesn't create as many open opportunities for teammates when compared to other POY candidates. His teammates' shooting deficiencies drive his assist rate lower on his drives, and his shooting deficiency drives his assist rate lower on everything else.

The whole reason we're discussing this is that I said Giannis' poor shooting outside of three feet and low assist rate were flaws in his resume for POY. You countered that they weren't, but I stand by my assertion that these are weaknesses compared to other POY candidates.

What matters is team efficiency not individual player efficiency. Lamarcus Aldridge lead Portland to a #2 offense while having a 51 TS% because he took all the bad shots and opened up great shots for his teammates. Westbrook is similar.

But as weekend_warrior pointed out:
weekend_warrior wrote:OKC is ranked 22 in team TS% with 54.5%, which is still well below league average. And this is mainly because Westbrook takes a s***load of shots on bad efficiency. They have a good ORTG because of their high offensive rebounding numbers, which is by far leading the league. Mainly because Steven Adams is by far leading the league in ORB%. This guy is really good.

Now you can tell me that this works because of all the missed FGA of Westbrook, but honestly, every sane person would take the player that can score with the initial action on (much) higher efficiency.

It's that bolded part that matters in this conversation, because we are talking about the best of the best. I don't see how you can rationally say that missing a lot of shots doesn't matter when comparing Westbrook to other elite players who also create for teammates while making more of their shots.

All I said is that 51.1 TS% is a weakness in Westbrook's POY resume. I didn't say TS% was the be-all, end-all of efficiency or that turnovers don't matter or whatever else. I just pointed out his really low TS% relative to other candidates as an indicator of an area where he lags the other candidates. I'm not convinced that him missing all those shots is irrelevant.

Look I'll just put it like this: I don't look at a spreadsheet and add up values to make a POY score. I look at all players as a whole. A less aggressive Westbrook would have a way higher TS%. He'd also be a way worse player. A Giannis that passed more (ignoring the fact that his assist numbers aren't low at all) would have a better USG to AST ratio but they'd lose more. Comparing players by their statistical benchmarks is backwards and useless especially when the criteria is randomly created on the spot to make someone look bad like what you did with Giannis.
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Re: '17-'18 POY discussion 

Post#180 » by Pillendreher » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:34 pm

Re RAPM and so on: I always thought those kind of stats were using '0' as the average NBA player and were telling us that player xy is making an average team z points better or worse than an average player. Or is that only RPM? I've always wondered if those kind of stats can be used as a ranking or just as an additonal stat for players within the same role (like let's say Adams and Capela or George and Leonard and so on)?
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