AEnigma wrote:parsnips33 wrote:Is it a given that the Nuggets are a non-contender? They're still 3rd seed in the West
They seem about as much of a contender as the Warriors, Lakers, Clippers… which is to say, not completely unthinkable, but requiring a lot of good fortune and a degree of performance not at all commiserate with what we have seen in the regular season (and without the positive uncertainty we see with that Butler/Curry duo and their now 18-2 record together).
Yeah, this seems right.
Honestly, I’d probably rather be the Warriors, Lakers, or Clippers than the Nuggets right now, since all of them have some reason to think they could be a lot better than they’ve generally looked most of the year. The Warriors have the fact that they’ve done extremely well with Steph + Butler. The Lakers have the fact that they just got Luka Doncic, which is obviously a really big deal that could potentially lead them to be a great team in the playoffs. The Clippers have the fact that, when they’ve been healthy, they’ve been incredibly good (I think it’s something like a +12.5 net rating in the 20+ games they’ve had all of Kawhi, Harden, Zubac, and Powell.
Meanwhile, I’m not sure what there is to make the Nuggets hopeful that they’ll be better than they’ve looked during the season. Jokic is great, but it’s not realistic to expect him to be significantly better in the playoffs than he’s already been during the season. So what are they really hoping for? I guess maybe that Murray plays above his normal level in the playoffs again? I guess that’s a reason to have a little hope, but it doesn’t strike me as being as much a cause for optimism as those other teams have.
This is also all pretty important because it seems highly unlikely that one of these teams can win the title this year without being *extremely* good in the playoffs. After all, they’ll likely have to get by the Thunder, who look historically great. And, if they do that, there’s likely like a 9 SRS team waiting for them in the Finals. Upsets happen (as well as injuries and teams randomly having dips in form), so maybe it won’t turn out this way, but I think that, for any of these teams to win the title, they’ll probably need to be playing at a *really* high level.