PC Board OT thread

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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1681 » by Dr Spaceman » Sat Dec 5, 2015 9:44 pm

fpliii wrote:
dontcalltimeout wrote:
bondom34 wrote: If you're saying RPM saw something, it did the same for Middleton


The other players I can't speak for, but I think the Middleton drop off can be explained by changes in his role and the team. Last year he played almost 70% of his minutes at the 4. This year he's playing exclusively at the 2 and 3. It's also worth noting that the Bucks just haven't been good. Parker and Monroe are hurting the team defense overall and this influences RPM as well as the box score prior.

I would caution against placing *too much* stock in B-R's positional designations. Certainly a step in the right direction, but the guys on the Nylon Calculus podcast a few months ago noted that it seems they're parsing the play-by-play, and assigning positions 1-5 based on height. I haven't done too much research on this, but I recall mystic mentioning this as an issue as well.


Yeah, I believe it's the same reason Draymond Green is listed at playing 52% of his minutes at small forward last season (47% at PF), as his companion forward was either 6'6" Iguodala or 6'8" Barnes (Dray is listed as 6'7"); Green played 61.6% of minutes with Barnes and 55.6% with Iggy so there's a rough correlation.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1682 » by Dr Spaceman » Sat Dec 5, 2015 9:51 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Put another way: It feels a little bit like me saying Player X is awesome and then having someone else jump in to say the same thing after that guy wins a ring. A bit of a "broken clock still right twice a day" thing.


Yes! This is exactly my sentiment.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1683 » by ceiling raiser » Sat Dec 5, 2015 9:54 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Well I think everyone knows I really support +/- in general. I use RPM as my go to on this now because it's so available but I still wish we there was more focus on non box score influence regression data.

Agreed 100%.

J.E. put out a set last season after the ASB upon request, as well as an end of the year set after the playoffs, so I'm sure he'll do the same this year (and he's been giving out updates on his Twitter every once in awhile).
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1684 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Dec 5, 2015 9:59 pm

sp6r=underrated wrote:2. I overestimated the Clippers. The Clippers of 2013 through 2015 were playing championship level basketball but got bad luck with their post-season matchups and injuries. Their offseason acquisitions looked to sure up a weak bench. At the beginning of season I was almost ready to declare them the best team in the NBA.


On this one, to me this is one of those pressure induced implosion things. Talent-wise there's no reason why the Clippers shouldn't be excellent once again this year, but a team with contentious stars that seems to stagnate is something of powder keg.

The interesting thing to me is that I think if you look at the Clippers and some other things going in the league, you can argue the primary "match" lighting the explosion is the sheer existence of the Warriors. Until this year the league franchises thought they were in what could be called an "open" era - albeit with the threat of the Cavs possibly ready to close it soon - but the Warriors now are serving notice that the era is basically "closed" to all but teams firing on absolutely all cylinders, and the Clippers just aren't that.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1685 » by Dr Spaceman » Sat Dec 5, 2015 10:30 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
sp6r=underrated wrote:2. I overestimated the Clippers. The Clippers of 2013 through 2015 were playing championship level basketball but got bad luck with their post-season matchups and injuries. Their offseason acquisitions looked to sure up a weak bench. At the beginning of season I was almost ready to declare them the best team in the NBA.


On this one, to me this is one of those pressure induced implosion things. Talent-wise there's no reason why the Clippers shouldn't be excellent once again this year, but a team with contentious stars that seems to stagnate is something of powder keg.

The interesting thing to me is that I think if you look at the Clippers and some other things going in the league, you can argue the primary "match" lighting the explosion is the sheer existence of the Warriors. Until this year the league franchises thought they were in what could be called an "open" era - albeit with the threat of the Cavs possibly ready to close it soon - but the Warriors now are serving notice that the era is basically "closed" to all but teams firing on absolutely all cylinders, and the Clippers just aren't that.


Zach Lowe wrote:Get lucky with fringe signings, trades and health, and you could find yourself going headband-to-headband with LeBron James in the conference finals. Everyone needs to wait out the Warriors, anyway. (Seriously: Waiting out Golden State's run of dominance is already a topic of conversation among team executives.)


Would also go a long way toward explaining LeBron's new short temper and caring about random November games for the first time in half a decade.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1686 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Dec 5, 2015 10:43 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
sp6r=underrated wrote:2. I overestimated the Clippers. The Clippers of 2013 through 2015 were playing championship level basketball but got bad luck with their post-season matchups and injuries. Their offseason acquisitions looked to sure up a weak bench. At the beginning of season I was almost ready to declare them the best team in the NBA.


On this one, to me this is one of those pressure induced implosion things. Talent-wise there's no reason why the Clippers shouldn't be excellent once again this year, but a team with contentious stars that seems to stagnate is something of powder keg.

The interesting thing to me is that I think if you look at the Clippers and some other things going in the league, you can argue the primary "match" lighting the explosion is the sheer existence of the Warriors. Until this year the league franchises thought they were in what could be called an "open" era - albeit with the threat of the Cavs possibly ready to close it soon - but the Warriors now are serving notice that the era is basically "closed" to all but teams firing on absolutely all cylinders, and the Clippers just aren't that.


Zach Lowe wrote:Get lucky with fringe signings, trades and health, and you could find yourself going headband-to-headband with LeBron James in the conference finals. Everyone needs to wait out the Warriors, anyway. (Seriously: Waiting out Golden State's run of dominance is already a topic of conversation among team executives.)


Would also go a long way toward explaining LeBron's new short temper and caring about random November games for the first time in half a decade.


Yup.

It's interesting, the last time I remember feeling like this was after the Lakers won their 2nd Shaq-Kobe title. The rest of the league was prepared to basically just play for 2nd place for years at that point. But of course, the egos blew that one up way prematurely.

What's interesting though of course is that the Warrior core is so young. if they keep up what they are doing and dominate like crazy all through the playoffs with their super-happy-fun vibe, the psychological effect on the rest of the league could be dramatic and I don't know what form it will take.

LeBron is one of the key guys to watch. Up until this point he was still the 600 lb gorilla of the league and even when he didn't win the title, the more rational analysts tended to praise him and speak pretty sincerely about him as a GOAT candidate - and from the perspective of LeBron's psyche, while he wanted those rings he still always felt pretty secure with what he was doing.

The Warriors doing what they are doing right now is the first real thing we're seeing that seems to shout, "LeBron, you're doing it wrong." and may push his legacy to being "always second best" a la Wilt or West. Not saying this is right or wrong, just saying, I think LeBron will feel it to some degree.

The other interesting ego thing other than the Clipper implosion is the Thunder. What we can say is that Kevin Durant really seems to be a loyal guy who doesn't get jealous easily of teammates. As such, it's possible to imagine the Thunder playing a reliable Washington General team to the Golden State Globetrotters without danger of burn out, and possible we'd even see Westbrook sneak in an MVP season. But it's no given. If the Warriors really trounce the whole league this year it will appear to cement the story of the Thunder as a team that blew it. The once-golden boy Sam Presti will go down as a goat rather than a GOAT, and if there is any chink in the morale armor of Durant & co, it will be found.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1687 » by sp6r=underrated » Sat Dec 5, 2015 11:32 pm

I've noticed the frustration with Lebron as well but I would strongly hesitate to attribute it to the Warriors. The more likely cause is that he may be having second thoughts about leaving Miami for Cleveland. The Cavs have now played well over 100 games since he left Miami for Cleveland and statistically they haven't been much better than the 14 Heat. Meanwhile it looks like it took Riley a season to turn the team into a good but not championship level ball club.

Lebron is a deservedly confident man who believes with a proper supporting cast his team will end up being the best. He may be feeling he picked the wrong horse.

________________________________________________________________

To expand on the Warriors success, I think you have to go back to the 2nd three peat Bulls to find a team that is so far ahead of the field. The Warriors are so good right now they make a recent champ who currently is playing GOAT defense seem like an afterthought.

Shaq-Kobe clicked at that level for spurts but they never put it together with the consistenty the Warriors have the last 2 years.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1688 » by sp6r=underrated » Sat Dec 5, 2015 11:54 pm

I'm a Knick fan so I won't jump on the bandwagon but the nice thing about working in City Hall was getting to see the trophy up close on Warriors day (10/14):

Image

After seeing the trophy but being disappointed with how small it was, I decided to put down money on stubhub and go to a game. I picked a memorable one.

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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1689 » by Owly » Sun Dec 6, 2015 12:54 am

As someone who thought last years Warriors were a historic team (basically trusting the numbers), and someone who wants them to win insofar as they will transpire to be the best team ...

Whether or not people are thinking about it in terms of competing for second place ...

They shouldn't be. They're priced at around 2/1 at the moment (or slightly better). That equates to about a 33.333% chance of winning the title or slightly better (up to around 36%). That's a great chance for one team amongst 30. It's not nearly big enough to be conceding the title or thinking remotely in such terms (the markets aren't perfect but they tend to be a pretty good predictor). The biggest obstacle to a title (from, say the 70s on) isn't one great team, but the mass of (good) teams (in the smallish sample of the playoffs). And the emergence of teams in the East as possible legit contenders (and drop of those in the West) could perhaps as much of a legitimate concern to LeBron's Cavs as the Warriors (though that said, much as Boston seem to be confirming that last year was legit, they're a deep team that won't gain from tightening rotations in the playoffs as a Cleveland will, especially after they get Irving and Shumpert back).

None of which is to say Golden State aren't the favourites, or playing incredible (indeed are incredible), but there's still luck, injuries, matchups etc.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1690 » by Quotatious » Sun Dec 6, 2015 1:13 am

I have to admit - before the season, I had Harden as my MVP prediction, and I thought Houston was gonna go for 60+ wins. I thought Curry already reached his absolute apex last year, and he would never have a season better than 2014-15, while I thought Harden could still improve his game, particularly defensively, and his mid-range shooting...

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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1691 » by dontcalltimeout » Sun Dec 6, 2015 1:37 am

fpliii wrote:
dontcalltimeout wrote:
bondom34 wrote: If you're saying RPM saw something, it did the same for Middleton


The other players I can't speak for, but I think the Middleton drop off can be explained by changes in his role and the team. Last year he played almost 70% of his minutes at the 4. This year he's playing exclusively at the 2 and 3. It's also worth noting that the Bucks just haven't been good. Parker and Monroe are hurting the team defense overall and this influences RPM as well as the box score prior.

I would caution against placing *too much* stock in B-R's positional designations. Certainly a step in the right direction, but the guys on the Nylon Calculus podcast a few months ago noted that it seems they're parsing the play-by-play, and assigning positions 1-5 based on height. I haven't done too much research on this, but I recall mystic mentioning this as an issue as well.


Hmm. That's a good point and I'll keep that in mind about B-R.

Either way, I clarified that I don't think it's so much about "position" as opposed to the lineups he allowed them to run last year & the lineups (+ the implicit strategy change) of playing Monroe big minutes.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1692 » by sp6r=underrated » Sun Dec 6, 2015 5:20 pm

I don't watch much OKC anymore so can anyone tell me what happened to Ibaka. The guy seems to be on a slight but steady decline since 23. I know he had artho last year but that is no longer a career ender.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1693 » by RSCD3_ » Sun Dec 6, 2015 5:30 pm

sp6r=underrated wrote:I've noticed the frustration with Lebron as well but I would strongly hesitate to attribute it to the Warriors. The more likely cause is that he may be having second thoughts about leaving Miami for Cleveland. The Cavs have now played well over 100 games since he left Miami for Cleveland and statistically they haven't been much better than the 14 Heat. Meanwhile it looks like it took Riley a season to turn the team into a good but not championship level ball club.

Lebron is a deservedly confident man who believes with a proper supporting cast his team will end up being the best. He may be feeling he picked the wrong horse.

________________________________________________________________

To expand on the Warriors success, I think you have to go back to the 2nd three peat Bulls to find a team that is so far ahead of the field. The Warriors are so good right now they make a recent champ who currently is playing GOAT defense seem like an afterthought.
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Shaq-Kobe clicked at that level for spurts but they never put it together with the consistenty the Warriors have the last 2 years.


Cleveland was doing better than miami ever did ( at least RS wise ) after the trades.
Heck the two near tied for record without a top 5 pg and a very good sg.

I think he's secure with his choice but concerned about the warriors
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1694 » by Dr Spaceman » Sun Dec 6, 2015 9:53 pm

Is it just me or are the trolls here becoming more and more extreme?
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1695 » by penbeast0 » Sun Dec 6, 2015 10:03 pm

Same trolls, just keep popping up and getting banned, like a particularly stupid game of whack-a-troll.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1696 » by ThaRegul8r » Sun Dec 6, 2015 10:20 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Same trolls, just keep popping up and getting banned, like a particularly stupid game of whack-a-troll.


Unfortunately, it's fairly easy to re-register under a different identity.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1697 » by bondom34 » Mon Dec 7, 2015 12:56 am

Dr Spaceman wrote:Is it just me or are the trolls here becoming more and more extreme?

I always wonder why they don't at least try to not be obvious. I mean, ease in for a day or two instead of starting 8 threads on Kobe in an hour.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1698 » by PaulieWal » Mon Dec 7, 2015 12:58 am

bondom34 wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:Is it just me or are the trolls here becoming more and more extreme?

I always wonder why they don't at least try to not be obvious. I mean, ease in for a day or two instead of starting 8 threads on Kobe in an hour.


And they come back with the same agendas....like settle down guys.

Trainwreckog comes back and immediately starts threads on MJ/Bron.
Shawn Kemp comes back and immediately starts something to do with Shawn Kemp.
Etc. etc.

They take the fun out of it. I also think a lot of these trolls are simply here to have fun and try to derail as much as they can before they get banned.
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1699 » by Dr Spaceman » Mon Dec 7, 2015 1:00 am

bondom34 wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:Is it just me or are the trolls here becoming more and more extreme?

I always wonder why they don't at least try to not be obvious. I mean, ease in for a day or two instead of starting 8 threads on Kobe in an hour.


The one today even said "I have 5000 alt accounts" :lol:
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Re: PC Board OT thread 

Post#1700 » by Quotatious » Mon Dec 7, 2015 1:12 am

Dr Spaceman wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:Is it just me or are the trolls here becoming more and more extreme?

I always wonder why they don't at least try to not be obvious. I mean, ease in for a day or two instead of starting 8 threads on Kobe in an hour.


The one today even said "I have 5000 alt accounts" :lol:

How big of a loser that guy has to be, to spend so much time just coming back on different accounts and bitching about the posters and mods on this board? :banghead:

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