The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 1)

[JulesWinnfield]

At the same time as well.

Imagine if all else being equal the warriors played the lakers in la for a finale

Right now the Lakers last game for Kobe is on ESPN, is it getting replaced by the Warriors?

Warriors on ESPN. Lakers on ESPN 2. That's how it's listed on the league schedule page on ESPN.com right now

[RSCD3_]

At the same time as well.

Imagine if all else being equal the warriors played the lakers in la for a finale

Right now the Lakers last game for Kobe is on ESPN, is it getting replaced by the Warriors?

I heard that espn2 will have Kobe's game. But my hypothetical was imagine how big the game would be if the warriors last game to break the record was visiting the lakers during Kobe's last game. It would be huge

[Onus]

Another thing for the rapm, curry has been shooting ur characteristically bad during this stretch with draymond off the floor

TS was 60.6 with draymond off the floor up to March 6. Before lke
Le start saying "oh that proves he sucks without draymond" he shot way to low from 3 for it to be real (sub 40s)

And was scoring 45.7 per 100 possessions and 35.3 per 36 so his volume increased (45.6 was kobes in 06)

Because of volume, him going 5/14 without draymond from 3 and 50% from 2 hurt his overall numbers.


What's interesting in my opinion is that klay has a similar effect, but curry's scoring inside the arc drops dramatically. It was the same last year. Volume increases though. TS in that sample was still about the same overall, and volume increased to 49.26 per 100 possessions and 37.2 per 36 minutes (TS is 61.7%)

(For reference, Jordan was at 46.4 in his 37ppg season)


Not sure what to make of this.

Obviously, while curry being on the floor and draymond being off it is better than the opposite on offense, lineups kinda like, hide that I guess? (Basically a doc rivers lineup effect but this one is good coaching instead of bad coaching)

So the offense wi green is still solid. Curry can completely carry an offense on his own, to around what Chris Paul did with griffin off the floor, with draymond off the floor. Considering that curry's scoring goes down more than it should (sample size issues) this is impressive imo.

In fact, with both klay and Thompson off the floor, the Warriors offense if curry is on the floor is still a somewhat solid 110 ish, which is a bit higher than Paul with reddick and griffin off the floor last year at 108.2

(I'm comparing them because raw on-off and on court were similar)

Similar to the cavs with kyrie and love off the court but lebron on it (110.8) identical actually

48 minutes with draymond in the court and both steph and klay off it so not nearly enough sample size. Their offensive rtgks actually the highest seen at 115, but considering sleights, iggy, and Livingston all shoot low to mid 60s in TS and draymond himself is at 44 doesent seem like a thing that matters, especially since over 1/3 of their shots were mid range, which obviously usually isn't a good thing.

I think the biggest difference between Curry's and Draymond's +/- is that Steph plays the end of the 1st and 3rd quarter with Barbosa, rush, Barnes, Varejao/Speights/Ezeli. While Draymond gets some run in the beginning of the 2nd and 4th quarter with Livingston, Iguodala, Thompson, Barnes. The disparity in teammates is quite noticeable, albeit for a short amount of time.

[Onus]

Up to the minute...

3's made in single season

1) '16 S. Curry 392
2) '15 S. Curry 286
3t) '13 S. Curry 272
3t) '16 K. Thompson 272
5) '06 R. Allen 269

I wonder if Curry is going to chuck for 400 or try to maintain his 50/40/90, can't wait.

[bondom34]

Don't know if you guys are on reddit, but if not, some highlights:

End of the 3rd: https://streamable.com/y2nl

Random others:

https://streamable.com/h0xd

https://streamable.com/wqaj

https://streamable.com/fmll

https://streamable.com/73zb

[therealbig3]

Other than 1 horrendous game, Curry has pretty much had his way with the Spurs' #1 defense.

In those other 3 games:

33.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 5.7 apg, 2.7 TOpg, 74.2% TS


Overall (4 games):

28.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 5.8 apg, 2.5 TOpg, 65.2% TS

[MyUniBroDavis]

Other than 1 horrendous game, Curry has pretty much had his way with the Spurs' #1 defense.

In those other 3 games:

33.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 5.7 apg, 2.7 TOpg, 74.2% TS


Overall (4 games):

28.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 5.8 apg, 2.5 TOpg, 65.2% TS

Just wondering, how much has kawhi guarded curry?

I only remember 1-2-3 possessions, but it seems like he limited curry's shots (not his efficiency though).

[colts18]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/JacobLRosen/status/719385217467678721[/Tweet]

[lorak]

Well, you can't really compare RAPM across seasons, so I'm curious to see if someone can come up with a way to do that. But from what I understand, Curry and Green are 1 and 2, and I think you can make a good case that Green's is artificially inflated because of Curry. Almost like Green is "stealing" Curry's RAPM, because their numbers are pretty identical last I checked, even with regards to the offensive vs defensive split, which doesn't seem right to me...everyone knows Green is primarily a defensive player, so to see his offensive RAPM dominate his overall output, in a split that looks identical to Curry's, is a little weird.

ftr, this is precisely what my RAPM spreadsheet do.

We don't need such things to compare RAPM from different seasons.

[thizznation]

Well, you can't really compare RAPM across seasons, so I'm curious to see if someone can come up with a way to do that. But from what I understand, Curry and Green are 1 and 2, and I think you can make a good case that Green's is artificially inflated because of Curry. Almost like Green is "stealing" Curry's RAPM, because their numbers are pretty identical last I checked, even with regards to the offensive vs defensive split, which doesn't seem right to me...everyone knows Green is primarily a defensive player, so to see his offensive RAPM dominate his overall output, in a split that looks identical to Curry's, is a little weird.

ftr, this is precisely what my RAPM spreadsheet do.

We don't need such things to compare RAPM from different seasons.

Therealbig3 has an interesting point here regarding Draymond Green "stealing" Curry's offensive RAPM. I believe there is definantly some of that going on and here is why. RAPM is supposed to have line ups weighted so that it takes into account if Draymond Green is playing with players of a high value it will take that into context while calculating the impact. Just the same how RAPM calculates the value of the players he is playing against. Now I believe that Curry is such an outlier in terms of the gravity he draws away from the ball and the sets he creates; that the RAPM is not adjusting enough as it should to account for Steph Curry being on the floor. The other factor that comes into play is that Draymond Green and Steph Curry play such a large percentage of their minutes together, that the sample sizes are minuscule individually, which throws off the accuracy of the calculations.

[lorak]

Therealbig3 has an interesting point here regarding Draymond Green "stealing" Curry's offensive RAPM. I believe there is definantly some of that going on and here is why.(...) Now I believe that Curry is such an outlier in terms of the gravity he draws away from the ball and the sets he creates; that the RAPM is not adjusting enough as it should to account for Steph Curry being on the floor. The other factor that comes into play is that Draymond Green and Steph Curry play such a large percentage of their minutes together, that the sample sizes are minuscule individually, which throws off the accuracy of the calculations.

That might be possible, but we need some better evidence, than just someones believes. Green this season played so many minutes without Curry, that it gives more than 7 full games and Warriors offense then was still top 10. I'm not sure, but last years numbers were probably similar. And considering Green's offensive profile (PF/C with 3p shot and playmaking ability) there shouldn't be any surprise he is VERY good player on that end of the floor.

[bondom34]

5 games over the last 2 seasons where Curry sat out and Green played. Green's numbers:

Green's numbers by my count:

19-53 (.358), 5-19 from 3 (.263), 8.6 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 2.6 TO, 10.8 points, 1.2 blocks, 1.6 steals, and a total +/- of -7.

[thizznation]

Therealbig3 has an interesting point here regarding Draymond Green "stealing" Curry's offensive RAPM. I believe there is definantly some of that going on and here is why.(...) Now I believe that Curry is such an outlier in terms of the gravity he draws away from the ball and the sets he creates; that the RAPM is not adjusting enough as it should to account for Steph Curry being on the floor. The other factor that comes into play is that Draymond Green and Steph Curry play such a large percentage of their minutes together, that the sample sizes are minuscule individually, which throws off the accuracy of the calculations.

That might be possible, but we need some better evidence, than just someones believes. Green this season played so many minutes without Curry, that it gives more than 7 full games and Warriors offense then was still top 10. I'm not sure, but last years numbers were probably similar. And considering Green's offensive profile (PF/C with 3p shot and playmaking ability) there shouldn't be any surprise he is VERY good player on that end of the floor.

It's not as much the total minutes but more of the ratio. Draymond Green and Steph Curry play together 4 times the amount that they play individually. This will undoubtedly skew the calculations of the RAPM.

[lorak]

Therealbig3 has an interesting point here regarding Draymond Green "stealing" Curry's offensive RAPM. I believe there is definantly some of that going on and here is why.(...) Now I believe that Curry is such an outlier in terms of the gravity he draws away from the ball and the sets he creates; that the RAPM is not adjusting enough as it should to account for Steph Curry being on the floor. The other factor that comes into play is that Draymond Green and Steph Curry play such a large percentage of their minutes together, that the sample sizes are minuscule individually, which throws off the accuracy of the calculations.

That might be possible, but we need some better evidence, than just someones believes. Green this season played so many minutes without Curry, that it gives more than 7 full games and Warriors offense then was still top 10. I'm not sure, but last years numbers were probably similar. And considering Green's offensive profile (PF/C with 3p shot and playmaking ability) there shouldn't be any surprise he is VERY good player on that end of the floor.

It's not as much the total minutes but more of the ratio. Draymond Green and Steph Curry play together 4 times the amount that they play individually. This will undoubtedly skew the calculations of the RAPM.

To some extent - yes. For example last know NPI RAPM (from mid FEB) has Curry (4.4 ORAPM) and Green (4.2) almost tied. But when more information is added, then separation between them is clear. Multiyear RAPM says it's 5.7 vs 3.0 and RPM 7.6 vs 3.5 - of course both in favor of Steph. So it's not some RAPM flaw, because NPI from obvious reasons has the most "noise" and that's why it never should be used alone/without context. Generally we can say that RAPM "thinks" Curry is ~twice as good on offense as Green, what doesn't seem unreasonable.

[Doctor MJ]

Well, you can't really compare RAPM across seasons, so I'm curious to see if someone can come up with a way to do that. But from what I understand, Curry and Green are 1 and 2, and I think you can make a good case that Green's is artificially inflated because of Curry. Almost like Green is "stealing" Curry's RAPM, because their numbers are pretty identical last I checked, even with regards to the offensive vs defensive split, which doesn't seem right to me...everyone knows Green is primarily a defensive player, so to see his offensive RAPM dominate his overall output, in a split that looks identical to Curry's, is a little weird.

ftr, this is precisely what my RAPM spreadsheet do.

We don't need such things to compare RAPM from different seasons.

Okay. Please elaborate.

[lorak]

Doc, we discussed it recently. I quoted what Engelmann said about that and you weren't able to give specifics about why we can't compare RAPM from different seasons.

[SideshowBob]

What kind of 3P/3PA volume are we expecting in the postseason?

Last season he not only increased his MPG (32.7 -> 39.3) in the playoffs but straight up increased his 3PA/Min and Poss rate (RS: 8.9 3PA/36; PS: 10.1 3PA/36).

This season he's up a little in MPG at 34.2, and his RS 3PA rate is higher than even the 2015 playoffs (11.7 3PA/36). If he jumps back up to 39-40 MPG and maintains the same per-minute rate he'd be at just under 13 3PA per game, and if ramps up a bit like last year, he'd be around 14-15 per game . I think its possible that we see him finally take down the single game 3P record (12) in the playoffs instead of the RS.

[Dr Spaceman]

What kind of 3P/3PA volume are we expecting in the postseason?

Last season he not only increased his MPG (32.7 -> 39.3) in the playoffs but straight up increased his 3PA/Min and Poss rate (RS: 8.9 3PA/36; PS: 10.1 3PA/36).

This season he's up a little in MPG at 34.2, and his RS 3PA rate is higher than even the 2015 playoffs (11.7 3PA/36). If he jumps back up to 39-40 MPG and maintains the same per-minute rate he'd be at just under 13 3PA per game, and if ramps up a bit like last year, he'd be around 14-15 per game . I think its possible that we see him finally take down the single game 3P record (12) in the playoffs instead of the RS.

I think the increase won't be quite as stark as last year because now teams are just going to focus on running him off the line. He'll still see an increase though simply because he'll look to be more aggressive with his shot (I really think he internalized everything that happened in the finals last year)

[JordansBulls]

Would Utah or Houston be better competition for GSW? I know the Warriors really want to play the Clippers and Spurs in a series as they were the last 2 teams to beat them in the playoffs.

[Dr Spaceman]

Would Utah or Houston be better competition for GSW? I know the Warriors really want to play the Clippers and Spurs in a series as they were the last 2 teams to beat them in the playoffs.

Utah would easily give the Warriors a tougher series. Houston is a pathetic, punchless team.