I thought it'd be cool to look at some numbers to kind of get a feel for how this team should perform this upcoming season. Specifically, I'm interested in DRAPM and 3P% because I think those two should provide us good indicators on how the offense and defense will look. I used single-year RAPM because there's no multi-year for 2017 and I wanted to be consistent. Yes, I'm aware it can be pretty flawed and flukey due to the sample size, but in a lot of cases I found the single-year was more accurate and the prior had too much weight. Oh well. These will probably be the rotational players (please no Jose...and sorry, Cedi...) P.S. For 3P% of the midseason acquisitions, I used only their Cleveland percentages in that season.
LeBron James:
2015: +5.78 (+3.83 | +1.96) - 35.4% 3P
2016: +7.60 (+4.71 | +2.89) - 30.9% 3P
2017: +7.49 (+5.66 | +1.83) - 36.3% 3P
Kevin Love:
2015: +1.64 (+1.22 | +0.43) - 36.7% 3P
2016: +2.88 (+2.37 | +0.51) - 36.0% 3P
2017: +4.01 (+2.16 | +1.85) - 37.3% 3P
Tristan Thompson:
2015: +1.51 (+2.08 | -0.57) - 0% 3P
2016: +2.65 (+1.52 | +1.13) - 0% 3P
2017: -1.00 (-1.30 | +0.30) - 0% 3P
J.R. Smith:
2015: +1.26 (+1.34 | -0.08) - 39.0% 3P
2016: +1.31 (+2.29 | -0.98) - 40.0% 3P
2017: -0.21 (+0.38 | -0.59) - 35.1% 3P
Iman Shumpert:
2015: +2.45 (+0.91 | +1.54) - 33.8% 3P
2016: +1.91 (+0.85 | +1.06) - 29.5% 3P
2017: +0.05 (-0.01 | +0.06) - 36.0% 3P
Channing Frye:
2015: -1.86 (-0.98 | -0.87) - 39.3% 3P
2016: +3.19 (+1.56 | +1.62) - 37.7% 3P
2017: -0.62 (+0.96 | -1.58) - 40.9% 3P
Kyle Korver:
2015: +5.08 (+3.54 | +1.54) - 49.2% 3P
2016: +4.31 (+1.46 | +2.85) - 39.8% 3P
2017: -3.67 (-1.19 | -2.48) - 48.5% 3P
Richard Jefferson:
2015: +0.20 (+0.19 | +0.01) - 42.6 3P
2016: -2.06 (-1.67 | -0.39) - 38.2% 3P
2017: +0.09 (-0.08 | +0.18) - 33.3% 3P
Jae Crowder:
2015: +0.94 (+1.48 | -0.54) - 29.3% 3P
2016: +1.87 (+0.44 | +1.44) - 33.6% 3P
2017: +4.34 (+2.57 | +1.77) - 39.8% 3P
Isaiah Thomas:
2015: +1.65 (+2.85 | -1.20) - 34.5% 3P
2016: +0.54 (+1.02 | -0.47) - 35.9% 3P
2017: +0.94 (+3.55 | -2.61) - 37.3% 3P
Dwyane Wade:
2015: -0.87 (+0.30 | -1.17) - 28.4% 3P
2016: -1.30 (+0.06 | -1.36) - 15.9% 3P
2017: -2.22 (-2.18 |-0.04) - 31.0% 3P
Derrick Rose:
2015: +2.75 (+1.19 | +1.56) - 28.0% 3P
2016: -2.20 (-0.86 | -1.34) - 29.3% 3P
2017: -0.21 (+1.17 | -1.38) - 21.7% 3P
Jeff Green:
2015: -2.48 (-1.27 | -1.21) - 30.9% 3P
2016: -0.49 (+0.11 | -0.59) - 32.5% 3P
2017: -2.16 (-1.68 | -1.48) - 27.5% 3P
DEFENSE:
So we have three guys in LeBron, Love, and Crowder, who last season were strong positive defenders, approaching +2 on that end. Crowder and Love should more or less remain the same while LeBron might see slight regression as he did from 2016 to last year.
And then two guys who should be slightly positive (+0.5 to +0.75ish) defenders in Tristan and Shumpert. Both saw down years from the previous season (actually a decrease of exactly 1 for each of them), but I expect them to rebound slightly.
Next are the slight negatives. JR and Jefferson will be another year older and should be around -0.25 to -1.00 defensively next season.
Frye, Rose, Wade, and Green...these guys are the clear negatives who will hover around the -1.00 to -1.75 range next season. Wade was actually shown to be basically neutral on defense last year, but I'm more inclined to trust his previous marks, while also taking into consideration playing on such an offensively talented team will allow him to exert more energy on D than he has in some time. Also, he will be 36 this year so gotta take that into account, as well. I think he and Rose have the potential to get into that slight negative category.
And now the brutally...terrible...absolute liabilities on defense. Thomas (just too small and will get punished on switches and with screens) and Korver (too old and man-to-man just about anyone in the league can light him up). Both of these guys should be somewhere around -2.5ish on this end.
With all of this in mind, I expect the Cavs to post a DRTG of around 110.5-111 (+3ish relative to league average), ranking them around 22nd-23rd, so slightly worse than last season. Ouch.
OFFENSE:
As for the offense, this team still has a ton of capable 3 point shooters. It hurts though that IT will be out for roughly half the season. Frye, Korver, JR, Love, and now Crowder, will provide a nice army of 3P marksmen shooting above 37% from deep. But the spacing is going to be brutal for the first half of the year. There's not a single doubt in my mind Lue is starting the Rose-Wade backcourt. Together they were 28% from 3 last year on about 2.5 attempts per game... LeBron needs a hot year from three for sure, because he and Love are going to have to provide hella spacing with those two and TT clogging the inside of the arc. It is nice to have guys in Wade and Rose who can collapse the defense and make plays (add in IT once he comes back, who will hopefully be more of a threat in the PnR with LeBron and PnP with Love than Kyrie was), but I'd be more hopeful if Wade were leading the bench unit and embracing an Iggy-like role. Otherwise, this team will be mostly similar to last year on the offensive end. LeBron driving and kicking out to shooters with the occasional Wade ISO or post up and a lot of drives from Rose who got into the paint more than pretty much anyone in the league last year (is this a good thing though...) Hopefully, we see more Love elbow action like we've been promised for 3 years now. Also, it'd be nice to see Crowder, Wade, and even Green looking to cut a lot from the weak side with Love/LeBron post action.
I expect them to post an ORTG of around 112-113, finishing 3rd in ORTG for the 4th straight year, behind Golden State and Houston, and just ahead of probably Denver, OKC, and Toronto. They'll have a rough start with the poor backcourt spacing, but talent alone should allow them to get it figured out and once IT returns they should be dropping 13-14 threes a night.
OVERALL:
So...I'm expecting a 49-50 win season this year, with Washington finishing ahead in the RS just due to their continuity in their solid starting lineup alone (awful bench though) and Toronto, Milwaukee, and Boston all finishing behind in that 46-48 win range. This team has crazy depth, but right now I really dislike how the lineups are going to fit together, and I think they'll have a pretty rough start with IT being out and Rose and Wade starting. No one's stopping this team from the East in the playoffs though. That's for sure. And I expect another 5 game series loss to Golden State in the Finals.