SideshowBob wrote:ardee wrote:I don't want to be the broken record but how do people think this guy is anywhere near the same as 2014.
3rd lowest PER of his career and 2nd lowest WS/48. Jumper is worse, finishing at the rim is worse, defense is worse.
He's gone from leading the league in all advanced stats across the board every season to being barely top 10 in most of those categories.
I don't care about PER or WS/48. I don't think he's been better than 2014 either, but his defense has been better. Through the postseason, I had 2014 at +6.5 offense (his peak), and +.75 defense. I think he's capable of being as good as 2014, I think he's been close to that level since his return from the two week break (weaker offense, stronger defense). For the
whole season he's been like +4.5ish on offense (weaker jumper, less off-ball involvement, weaker creation off the dribble, weak finishing at the rim so less pressure at the basket, weaker post game, stronger playmaking, high TOs) and +1.5 on defense. This is right around where I have Curry, Durant, GOAT, and Harden as well, Davis, Paul a bit lower. Curry's been the best player in the league to me, and though I'm not too worried about missed games, hes got that slight advantage over the others as well (I think Harden's just slightly lower as a player), though James is coming up fast.
Since his return though, there's definitely been a visible improvement. He's looked more athletic, he's basically able to attack the basket at will right now, and there's no lack of lift anymore, he's shooting 76% at the rim in Jan/Feb (and consider the lack of easy open baskets off backdoor cuts like he was getting in 2013/2014). He's running the offense to perfection lately (120 ORTG with him on the floor in Jan/Feb) and with him in the lineup Cleveland's sustaining a +9ish offense (about +7.5 for the season). They're also starting to incorporate him in the post a little bit more.
The big issues have been shooting and turnovers and I literally made a post on this and his advanced stats a few pages back. The jumpshot's been shoddy all year, but it's definitely been compounded since he injured his wrist. This is particularly harmful with regards to his three point shooting, because he was among the best spot-up shooters in the league the last two years and this detracts from his ability to space the floor off the ball. All I can say on that note is that he's had inconsistent shooting seasons before as well and has turned things around so that's something to watch for. If it doesn't come back then it's obviously a black mark. The turnovers seem to be the result of a whole host of issues, awkward handles at times (again, wrist may be exacerbating this, so that healing could help), telegraphed passes, still building chemistry with teammates (roster changes would have interrupted any progress he was making with the initial lineup). Understand, these aren't excuses, these are explanations as to why we
may see an improvement later on, I could be completely wrong.
On the other hand we've talked about his defense extensively. IMO he looked really flat for the first week or so of the season, but since then he's looked very good. Everything just looks sharper than last year, the focus/awareness is present. Pre-Mozgov he was the anchor, constantly leaving his man to help/cover the rest of the floor because that's what Cleveland needed because of the way they cover the PnR (they try to show on the handler on every possession), and it was working, his paint/lane coverage was phenomenal (their defense with him on the floor has been strong all season), AND on top of that, his recoveries have been much stronger than last year's half-assing, so there wasn't as much of a cost to him leaving his man in the first place. Since Mozgov's return, he's had a bit more freedom, less responsibility to strictly cover the paint with Mozgov inside, more freedom to wreak havoc in the passing lanes, definitely a bit tighter in 1on1 situations, and IMO the weight loss has helped with two things, stamina (surprisingly) and lateral movement. He looks more agile moving around the floor on defense than last year, and I think his motor has been better on that end as well; he's clearly putting way more effort on both ends this year and yet he looks gassed less often (once again, especially so since his return).
So, all that considered, his offense has been really good. Not 2010, 2013, 2014 good, but still very strong (and again, with what I see as room for improvement). His defense has been really good as well. Better than 2014, better than 07 and 08 as well, just not 09-13 level IMO. So, I have post-break Lebron (16 G) looking like a +5.5ish on offense and +1.5 on defense. Clearly lower than his mega years, 09/10/13/14, slightly lower than 12. If the jumpshot and turnovers look better as the season progresses then I will account for that (my expectation is that he'll have his best games in the postseason, but who knows). From what I see right now, I think there's too much missing for his offense to touch the 2014 level at any point this season, but again, who knows.
