#1 Highest Peak of All Time (Jordan '91 wins)

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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#181 » by An Unbiased Fan » Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:28 am

ronnymac2 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
ronnymac2 wrote:I said this in the other Highest Peak thread...if you have a problem with the competition Shaq faced during the 2000 playoffs, use the 2001 playoffs to at least inform yourself about how Shaq reacts to different (or elite) defensive frontcourts. Smits and Longley were switched with Robinson/Duncan and Mutombo (Por and Sac stayed constant), yet Shaq's 2001 playoff numbers were remarkably similar to what they were in 2000.


The '00 vs '01 Shaq is interesting, and perhaps quite damaging to his candidacy given the single season criteria. First let's take a look at team offense and defense in the regular season of both seasons:

Offense:
'00 5th
'01 2nd

Defense:
'00 1st
'01 21st

This is an incredible defensive collapse, and it's hard to imagine any single player taking more of the blame than Shaq because we know how his attention waned.

Okay, now, same stats but in the playoffs:

Offense:
'00 1st
'01 1st

Defense:
'00 13th
'01 1st (by a huge margin)

So, just like before, the difference between the two seasons was huge defensive changes, except this time in the opposite direction. I wouldn't claim that difference was all Shaq focus by any stretch of the imagination, but I have a hard time believe that wasn't part of it.

This then means, that we never actually saw Shaq be full Shaq for any one season, which makes one ask if we really believe that any kind of partial Shaq could truly be the peak GOAT.

Of course there's a different perspective as well, if you are focused enough on the playoffs, then perhaps your peak GOAT is not '00 Shaq but rather '01 Shaq.


Based on what Elgee brought up in response to your post, I do believe we saw full-throttle Shaq in the year 2000. The defensive dip in the playoffs had little to do with Shaq's effort, and more to do with matchups. I remember the Pacers going absolutely ape **** for a few games in the NBA Finals, particularly from 3-point land. I also remember Portland being able to feast on isolation plays that took advantage of the weaker 1 vs. 1 defenders L.A. had.

Remember, Glen Rice and A.C. Green were getting minutes for this Laker team, so that meant Fox and Horry, two superior defenders, were not getting as many minutes as in 2001. Horace Grant, who was still strong defensively in 2001, wasn't on the team either. So Sheed, Wells, Pippen, and Smith went to work in post up isolations, and they worked. Shaq had to stay within arm's length of a jump-shooting Sabonis. I remember even Hakeem in '94 had to stay next to Felton freakin' Spencer and wait for Karl Malone to make an aggressive move against poor Otis Thorpe before coming down to try and help out. That's Hakeem, and he still struggled to get down to Malone in time.

Under those rules, it would have been incredibly difficult to slow that Portland squad down. They had more post options that any team I've ever watched.

Kobe also hadn't bulked up; amazing perimeter defender, but Smith and Wells and Pip picked him apart when they got him inside and put him in foul trouble a few games. Kobe locked up Mighty Mouse though.

Shaq was going full throttle in the 2000 playoffs on both ends. Game 5 against PHX was one of the most disgusting/beautiful games I've ever seen, and Shaq's defense basically won the Lakers the game. He was pretty damn good throughout the playoffs defensively.

I have to disagree with this assessment. AC Green was a really good defender in 2000, in fact, Everyone in the rotation was a good defender except for Rice.

Shaq's big problem in the 2000 postseason was his help defense. He simply stopped playing it, and it killed LA's defensive rotations. Now staying in the paint did help his rebound numbers bigtime, but it came at a cost. The 2 series that gave LA the most trouble(Sac & Por) had jump shooting big(Webber/Divac & Sheed/Sabonis). It's no accident that those came to elimination games.

Shaq was a great man2man defender throughout that year, but it would be overstating to say he carrried the defense by himself.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#182 » by Josephpaul » Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:32 am

Hey Doc where does 71 Kareem peak rank with you ?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lka01.html
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#183 » by ronnymac2 » Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:39 am

ElGee wrote:The 2001 Lakers basically made the following changes:
-Kobe got better
-Fisher replaced Harper
-Rice was gone (Fox started now)
-One old man (Grant) replaced another (Green) as the starting 4

-I think the first series against Portland they would be fine. There was no strange shooting there, it was just Shaq and a better team vs. age. Don't see what the 2000 squad difference would be.

-In the second round it gets dicier, because I'm not sure how Harper would have helped. On the other hand, Rick Fox was 1-10 from 3 and I don't remember him locking up anyone so Rice may have helped the offense (LA actually shot 29.8% from 3 in this series).


Rick locked Peja up in '01. Part of the reason why I believe the '01 Lakers are better than the '00 Lakers is team construction. As you said, Kobe improved on both ends of the floor. Rice wasn't good for the Triangle and basically sucked for a supposed third-best player (Fisher in the '01 playoffs was vastly superior to Rice in 2000). The important minutes at SF were given to Fox, who was an underrated and excellent defender (Rice sucked). Grant and Horry were a much better defensive combination at PF; A.C. Green was slow and wasn't as big as Horace. With Horace, they had a Power power forward to compliment a skinnier power forward in Horry. They could give different looks to opposing power forwards who had historically killed them. They faired much, much better defending power forwards in 2001 thanks to the addition of Grant (seriously, check the stats of Webber, Wallace, and Duncan in the playoffs).



Shaq definitely did an amazing thing in 2000 by carrying an incredibly weak frontcourt to defensive dominance in the regular season and holding the fort down in the playoffs. He was more valuable to his team than at any point in his career aside from 1994.

I'd probably give 2001 playoff Shaq the slight edge over 2000 Shaq as a player for having greater patience on offense, and also because he dominated the same against better competition. But I have no complaints about the 2000 playoffs. He dominated and they won. Can't ask anything more...
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#184 » by ronnymac2 » Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:46 am

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
ronnymac2 wrote:Based on what Elgee brought up in response to your post, I do believe we saw full-throttle Shaq in the year 2000. The defensive dip in the playoffs had little to do with Shaq's effort, and more to do with matchups. I remember the Pacers going absolutely ape **** for a few games in the NBA Finals, particularly from 3-point land. I also remember Portland being able to feast on isolation plays that took advantage of the weaker 1 vs. 1 defenders L.A. had.

Remember, Glen Rice and A.C. Green were getting minutes for this Laker team, so that meant Fox and Horry, two superior defenders, were not getting as many minutes as in 2001. Horace Grant, who was still strong defensively in 2001, wasn't on the team either. So Sheed, Wells, Pippen, and Smith went to work in post up isolations, and they worked. Shaq had to stay within arm's length of a jump-shooting Sabonis. I remember even Hakeem in '94 had to stay next to Felton freakin' Spencer and wait for Karl Malone to make an aggressive move against poor Otis Thorpe before coming down to try and help out. That's Hakeem, and he still struggled to get down to Malone in time.

Under those rules, it would have been incredibly difficult to slow that Portland squad down. They had more post options that any team I've ever watched.

Kobe also hadn't bulked up; amazing perimeter defender, but Smith and Wells and Pip picked him apart when they got him inside and put him in foul trouble a few games. Kobe locked up Mighty Mouse though.

Shaq was going full throttle in the 2000 playoffs on both ends. Game 5 against PHX was one of the most disgusting/beautiful games I've ever seen, and Shaq's defense basically won the Lakers the game. He was pretty damn good throughout the playoffs defensively.

I have to disagree with this assessment. AC Green was a really good defender in 2000, in fact, Everyone in the rotation was a good defender except for Rice.

Shaq's big problem in the 2000 postseason was his help defense. He simply stopped playing it, and it killed LA's defensive rotations. Now staying in the paint did help his rebound numbers bigtime, but it came at a cost. The 2 series that gave LA the most trouble(Sac & Por) had jump shooting big(Webber/Divac & Sheed/Sabonis). It's no accident that those came to elimination games.

Shaq was a great man2man defender throughout that year, but it would be overstating to say he carrried the defense by himself.


Nah man, I appreciate A.C., but he wasn't a good defender at that point anymore. Rice was terrible. Harper was smart, but he was also older, so Kobe had to defend point guards a lot. Basically, the only good defenders in the starting lineup were Shaq and Kobe, and again, Kobe's versatility couldn't really be used since the Lakers couldn't defend point guards, so he was forced to guard them more often.

It's freakin' amazing that that squad ranked number 1 ahead of the Duncan/Robinson Spurs.

Portland and Sacramento presented certain matchup issues for the Lakers as a whole. Sacramento's inverted offense did negate Shaq's presence inside at times, and their wing players played decently.

As for Portland, Phil Jackson described how Portland presented a problem in his book about the 2000 season. Basically, it's what I described above. Their forwards and big guards couldn't be stopped in isolation in the post. That goes along with how crappy L.A.'s defense outside of Shaq and Kobe really was. Kobe was used to shut down Mighty Mouse, which left....who guarding those forwards and big guards? Shaq really can't be blamed for that, especially under the rules back then. Unless you want him to guard Scottie and Bonzi.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#185 » by colts18 » Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:59 am

Josephpaul wrote:Hey Doc where does 71 Kareem peak rank with you ?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lka01.html

statistically 1972 was a better year. Only reason they didn't win a title was that they faced the greatest team in history at the time
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#186 » by lorak » Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:11 am

colts18 wrote:
Josephpaul wrote:Hey Doc where does 71 Kareem peak rank with you ?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lka01.html

statistically 1972 was a better year. Only reason they didn't win a title was that they faced the greatest team in history at the time


The reason was Oscar's injury.

And Doc, I'm changing my vote to: Jordan 1991
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#187 » by ardee » Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:12 am

Josephpaul wrote:Hey Doc where does 71 Kareem peak rank with you ?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lka01.html


1971 was probably not even Kareem's own best year.... That should go to '76 or '77.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#188 » by Josephpaul » Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:17 am

He only lost 2 playoffs game that year added he beat wilt , plus his stats I showed , plus the only title the bucks have seen
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#189 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:38 am

DavidStern wrote:
colts18 wrote:
Josephpaul wrote:Hey Doc where does 71 Kareem peak rank with you ?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lka01.html

statistically 1972 was a better year. Only reason they didn't win a title was that they faced the greatest team in history at the time


The reason was Oscar's injury.

And Doc, I'm changing my vote to: Jordan 1991


Just make sure you have your official vote easy for me to read in the format I mentioned.

"Vote: Michael Jordan '91" in your vote post.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#190 » by mysticbb » Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:02 am

Doctor MJ wrote:I'm not comfortable saying a non-APM tool (including RAPM in the APM family) is "better" than APM.


In terms of explaining and predicting, APM is a bad tool, especially when we have a rather small sample size.

Doctor MJ wrote:but APM & box score stats are orthogonal in nature from my perspective.


Indeed. Boxscore and +/- based are giving different views. I would never use my SPM alone in order to declare one player better than the other. SPM is the combination of production and efficiency based on boxscore entries. That's what the number can tell you, who had the better combination of production and efficiency in comparison to the league average. An important part is missing: Non-boxscore activity, which is better captured by +/- based stats. The issue is obviously that you can't just fill a team with "impact players", if those "impact players" are not producing or are inefficient, especially with increased usage. Building a team around Matt Bonner, Nick Collison, Thaddeus Young, Thabo Sefolosha and Tony Allen will just demand that you take those players out of their respective roles and thus away from their strength. Thus, you need other players who can produce on a high volume while being efficient enough.

Doctor MJ wrote:One has the validity edge, the other has the reliability edge, I feel I need to use both.


APM does not have the edge in terms of validity. And as I pointed out before, we have RAPM instead, clearly better than APM. 2yr APM has some value, also because it is available easily via basketballvalue.com, but that's about it.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#191 » by ardee » Fri Jul 27, 2012 11:47 am

MJ and Wilt are tied with 4 votes each.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#192 » by flashwade33 » Fri Jul 27, 2012 12:20 pm

Vote: Michael Jordan '91
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#193 » by JordansBulls » Fri Jul 27, 2012 12:42 pm

ardee wrote:MJ and Wilt are tied with 4 votes each.

Well here is the panel and for official votes this is what I have seen.

1. ardee - Wilt 1967
2. Doctor MJ - (leaning towards MJ 1991)
3. C-izeMe - Shaq 2000
4. colts18 - Shaq 2000
5. DavidStern - MJ 1991
6. DrMufasa - Wilt 1967
7. drza - Haven't seen a vote for him yet
8. ElGee - MJ 1991
9. JordansBulls - MJ 1991
10. Rapcity_11 - Haven't seen a vote for him yet
11. Vinsanity420 - (Said MJ 1991 he was leaning towards, but no official vote)
12. therealbig3 - MJ 1991
13. Josephpaul - Kareem 1971
14. ThaRegul8r - Wilt 1967
15. PTB Fan - Shaq 2000
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#194 » by PTB Fan » Fri Jul 27, 2012 1:48 pm

colts18 wrote:
Josephpaul wrote:Hey Doc where does 71 Kareem peak rank with you ?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lka01.html

statistically 1972 was a better year. Only reason they didn't win a title was that they faced the greatest team in history at the time


The injury of Oscar Robertson had a lot to do it. That allowed the Lakers to play Kareem even more physical at times than before.

Image

This was such a physical series.. heck even Wilt guarded Kareem extremely physically as well..

Image


Still, not to take anyway from LA's win. They did outplay their opponents overall and Wilt's impact had a lot to do with that.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#195 » by PTB Fan » Fri Jul 27, 2012 2:04 pm

Josephpaul wrote:Hey Doc where does 71 Kareem peak rank with you ?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lka01.html


I'd put him top 3. I'm just not sure whether to put his '76 or '71 season.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#196 » by ardee » Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:36 pm

JordansBulls wrote:
ardee wrote:MJ and Wilt are tied with 4 votes each.

Well here is the panel and for official votes this is what I have seen.

1. ardee - Wilt 1967
2. Doctor MJ - (leaning towards MJ 1991)
3. C-izeMe - Shaq 2000
4. colts18 - Shaq 2000
5. DavidStern - MJ 1991
6. DrMufasa - Wilt 1967
7. drza - Haven't seen a vote for him yet
8. ElGee - MJ 1991
9. JordansBulls - MJ 1991
10. Rapcity_11 - Haven't seen a vote for him yet
11. Vinsanity420 - (Said MJ 1991 he was leaning towards, but no official vote)
12. therealbig3 - MJ 1991
13. Josephpaul - Kareem 1971
14. ThaRegul8r - Wilt 1967
15. PTB Fan - Shaq 2000


My bad then, I thought Dipper 13 was voting. Looks like Jordan has this. Ironic considering he's generated the least discussion :lol:

I expect no. 2 to be an all out Wilt vs. Shaq war, and the loser of that winning no. 3 handily.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#197 » by Josephpaul » Fri Jul 27, 2012 4:02 pm

It's worth noting the lakers were not at full strength against Jordan bulls
No worthy, was a big loss for the lakers
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#198 » by ardee » Fri Jul 27, 2012 4:40 pm

Josephpaul wrote:It's worth noting the lakers were not at full strength against Jordan bulls
No worthy, was a big loss for the lakers


http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/1991/

Worthy missed just the last game.

And like I said before, I met a member of that '91 Laker team and he admitted Worthy was their primary defender for Jordan.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#199 » by ardee » Fri Jul 27, 2012 4:45 pm

And a side note:

BBR just added 1983-84 game logs.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/1984/

This guy NEEDS top 15-17 consideration. Just look at the scoring rate AND efficiency. INSANE.
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Re: #1 Highest Peak of All Time 

Post#200 » by ElGee » Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:05 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:So suffice to say, right now I'm leaning '91 Jordan.

I have a ton of respect for Shaq at full might, it seems like no matter where I look, I see a chink in the armor. With Jordan, year after year, he's a machine who just seems to crank it up further in the playoffs.

I have enough respect for Shaq's offense that I call him a best-in-the-game level talent there (something I rarely say for a big men), but that doesn't make him Jordan's equal, and his spotty defensive play makes me hesitant to rank him much ahead of Jordan on that front, because Jordan was exceptional. Not DPOY exception imho, but then neither was Shaq.

Regarding Wilt, I've mentioned before my uncertainty there. Why was there such an offensive drop off for the '76ers from '67 to '68? If it's because Wilt's simply not trying as hard, that's actually encouraging. On the other hand, if it's another factor, that might be a problem.

I'll ask: Is it possible that the impact of '67 Wilt had much to do with defenses simply playing poor defensive strategy in response to Wilt as a decoy, and that they later figured it out?


Well, with league averages in parenthesis:

67 - .483 FG% (+.042), .680 FT% (-.053)
68 - .471 FG% (+.025), .635 FT% (-.085)

According to my math, Wilt as his 67 FGA FG% and FT%, in the 68 season, would've added about .015% to the 68 Sixers FG% and +.02 to their FT%. So I think it's fair to say Wilt becoming a less efficient player is responsible for the difference in FG%/FT% at least, which coers a huge chunk of the difference in those categories

With that said it could be a chicken and egg thing where Wilt getting less efficient from the field was because the Sixers got figured out or they played a more defensive/halfcourt style or w/e and not the other way around, but the numbers seem to suggest the difference between 67 and 68 Sixers most derive from Wilt himself's efficiency. Knowing Wilt my guess is that after he won the title and he knew his team was going to cruise through the regular season, there was probably a lot more "You know what, I think I WILL treat myself to that that turnaround jumpshot that goes in 1/3 of the time" and "Hmm... I could spend 15 seconds expending energy getting in the low post... OR instead, I could hang out from 20 FT and work on my PG skills - Oh looks like I have to take a 20 ft jumpshot, well ok" in 68 when his team was 10 Ws ahead of anyone else and up 15 in a game

I also don't like splitting up ORTG/DRTG as you know, I tend to think energy spent on each end, strategy, pace, etc. can move those pins in opposite directions while the team's caliber doesn't change


This is a good post. I don't have his 1968 season season far behind his 1967 one, because I think it was his defensive peak. Now, you're point about splitting ORtg/DRtg is one I generally side with, although no to the extreme you take it. You CAN see shifts on one side of the ball or the other. One thing I do with modern teams is look at their OREB% (and look for individual outliers in that regard) -- in fact I've done so to make a simple adjustment to team offensive ratings. As you said, you can also look at pace to see if there is a Left-Hand to Right-Hand adjustment being made (are teams leaking out more or packing it in more)? Turnovers will also contribute to the splits differently.

With that said, keeping in mind the overall impact is paramount, it's incredibly beneficial at times to try and isolate the impact of a player, even if it isn't obvious. For example, Derrick Rose leaves the games for the Bulls and they have no one to create his own shot. As a result, they try to put Korver on the floor and leak out more because their defense is so stellar. When Rose comes in the game, they feel more comfortable in the half court. This might mean the results are:

Rose Out: -1 ORtg -3 DRtg
Rose In: 0 ORtg -7 DRtg

I would not say this is because Derrick Rose is an impact defender. It's just a matter of understanding the team dynamic. In reality, the lineup on the court is getting "5 points better" and most of it is on offense...but it's reflected on defense here because of the team strategy shifts. I think with most impact players, this can be understood well enough (post 1986, especially post 2001) to glean information about O/D impact.

Why is that so important? Because just mysteriously claiming "+5" impact doesn't tell me how my guy gets there...and how will I know what kinds of teams he can impact? I'd rather not pair Steve Nash and Magic Johnson for reasons we know are obvious, but if you had no idea where their impact on a team was coming from, you might just go "oh ok, that looks good!"

With all that said, I think an enormous question for people to ask is how different 67 and 68 Wilt were. The 1968 has a -5.6 DRtg -- the league got better as a whole on offense but the 76ers TS% as a team dropped nearly 2 points. They took 1.2 fewer FTA's per 100 (big drop). If Wilt shoots FT's at his 1967 rate they pick up 0.3% TS points, or an estimated bump of about 0.5 points on offense. This does not explain a large chunk of the team change.

But per the earlier point, it's hard to see how the team really would have shifted it's strategy to be more defensive-oriented at the expense of the offense (especially after the record-setting offensive year -- that's totally illogical). Chamberlain himself had his ridiculous obsession with the assist title (nice article posted here I'd never seen on him not passing to Chet Walker) and that's also evidence that the team's offense suffered. So what other explanation is there besides "the defense improved" for why the 68 team was still an 8 SRS team? (Keeping in mind they lost Cunningham in the PS) Based on what's available, how can you not give Wilt some of that defensive credit in 1968 while also noting his drop in offensive play?
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